证券研究报告 | 商贸零售 | | --- | 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 15 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 10 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，海南离岛免税新政 11 月 1 日 起正式实施 ——新消费行业周报（2025.11.10-2025.11.14） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 10 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%。10 月 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%，扣除食品和 能源价格的核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，涨幅连续第 6 个月扩大，整体表现超预期。其 中，扩内需等政策措施持续显效，叠加国庆、中秋长假带动，服务价格上涨 0.8%， 涨幅比上月扩大 0.2pct，增速亮眼，飞机票和宾馆住宿价格分别上涨 8.9%和 2.8%； 医疗服务和家政服务价格分别上涨 2.4%和 2.3%。 海南离岛免税新政 11 月 1 日起正式实施，周度免税数据高增。海口海关 11 月 8 日 公布数据，11 月 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - There is a noticeable trend of foreign restaurant brands selling their operations in China, indicating a shift in market dynamics and strategies for foreign companies in the Chinese market [3][15]. Group 1: Strategic Partnerships and Sales - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% [3]. - CPE Yuanfeng has also formed a strategic partnership with Burger King, acquiring approximately 83% of the joint venture, while RBI retains about 17% [3]. - Earlier, CITIC Capital acquired a significant stake in McDonald's China, becoming its second-largest shareholder [4]. Group 2: Market Characteristics - The Chinese restaurant market is characterized by its large scale, with projected revenues exceeding 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, outpacing the retail sector's growth [7]. - The market's extensive supply chain allows local brands to have a cost advantage, as seen with Kudi's self-sourcing of most raw materials [8]. - Local brands are increasingly adopting differentiated strategies, with Luckin Coffee's innovative model contributing to its success [9]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi are gaining market share due to their lower pricing strategies, with Luckin's average transaction value at 14.28 yuan compared to Starbucks' 35.86 yuan [11]. - In Q2, Luckin's revenue grew by 47.1% to 12.36 billion yuan, while Starbucks' revenue increased by only 8% to approximately 56.26 billion yuan [12]. - Starbucks has historically not viewed Luckin as a direct competitor due to its strong brand presence and customer experience [13]. Group 4: Operational Challenges - Starbucks faces challenges with declining average transaction values and rising rental costs, indicating a shift in its operational model may be necessary [14][15]. - The company has been granting more autonomy to its Chinese team, leading to a 6% revenue increase in its latest fiscal quarter [18]. - Starbucks anticipates its retail business in China to be valued at over $13 billion, with a significant portion of this value derived from the partnership with Boyu [20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of foreign brands in China may involve partnerships with local entities to navigate the changing market landscape [20]. - Starbucks plans to expand its store count to 20,000, which poses challenges in terms of pricing and operational adjustments [20].

Core Viewpoint - There is a noticeable trend of foreign dining brands selling their stakes in the Chinese market, indicating a shift in market dynamics and strategies [1][10]. Group 1: Foreign Brand Partnerships - Starbucks has formed a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to establish a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% [1]. - CPE Yuanfeng has partnered with Burger King to create a joint venture, with CPE holding approximately 83% of the new entity [1]. - CITIC Capital has acquired a significant stake in McDonald's China, indicating a trend of foreign brands seeking local partnerships [1]. Group 2: Unique Characteristics of the Chinese Market - The Chinese restaurant market is vast, with projected revenues exceeding 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, growing at 5.3%, outpacing the retail sector's growth [3]. - The complete supply chain in China provides local brands with cost advantages, as seen with Kudi Coffee's self-sourcing of materials, significantly reducing costs [3]. - Local brands like Mixue are expanding their production capabilities, indicating a strong domestic supply chain [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Local brands are gaining a competitive edge through innovative pricing strategies, with Luckin Coffee's average transaction price at 14.28 yuan compared to Starbucks' 35.86 yuan [5][6]. - Luckin Coffee reported a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 123.6 billion yuan, while Starbucks China saw an 8% increase to approximately 56.26 billion yuan [6]. - The rapid expansion of local brands, with Luckin exceeding 26,000 stores and Kudi over 18,000, contrasts with Starbucks' 8,000 stores [6]. Group 4: Challenges for Foreign Brands - Starbucks is experiencing a decline in average transaction value and facing rising rental costs, indicating challenges in maintaining its previous business model in China [7]. - The operational costs for Starbucks flagship stores are substantial, with some costing nearly 100 million yuan annually [9]. - Starbucks is adapting by granting more autonomy to its Chinese team, leading to a 6% revenue increase in the latest fiscal year [9][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Starbucks anticipates its retail business in China to be valued over 13 billion USD, with a significant portion of this value derived from its partnership with Boyu [11]. - The company plans to expand its store count to 20,000, which poses challenges in terms of pricing and operational adjustments [11]. - The overall trend suggests that foreign giants are recognizing the need to adapt to the evolving Chinese market, with partnerships likely becoming a common strategy [11].

Core Insights - There is a noticeable trend of foreign dining brands selling their stakes in China, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][3][20] - The Chinese dining market is characterized by its vast scale and a rapidly growing consumer base, with projected dining revenue exceeding 5.5 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.3% year-on-year increase [4] - Local brands are gaining a competitive edge due to a complete supply chain and cost advantages, allowing them to thrive in a price-sensitive market [5][7] Company Developments - Starbucks has entered a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to form a joint venture for its retail operations in China, with Boyu holding up to 60% and Starbucks retaining 40% [1] - CPE Yuanfeng has partnered with Burger King to establish a joint venture, with CPE holding approximately 83% of the new entity [1] - Citic Capital has acquired a significant stake in McDonald's China, positioning it as the second-largest shareholder [1] Market Dynamics - The Chinese market's unique characteristics have led to a shift in strategies for foreign brands, as they adapt to local consumer preferences and competitive pressures [3][11] - Local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi are rapidly expanding, with Luckin reporting a 47.1% year-on-year revenue increase to 12.36 billion yuan in Q2, while Starbucks' revenue grew by only 8% to approximately 56.26 billion yuan [8] - The average transaction price for Starbucks is significantly higher than that of local competitors, with Starbucks at 35.86 yuan compared to Luckin's 14.28 yuan and Kudi's 9.9 yuan [7] Strategic Shifts - Starbucks is increasingly decentralizing its operations in China, allowing local teams more autonomy, which has led to a 6% revenue increase in its latest fiscal quarter [12][13] - The decision to sell a majority stake in its Chinese operations is seen as a strategic move to secure a stable revenue source, with the total value of Starbucks' Chinese retail business estimated to exceed 13 billion USD [13][14] - Future plans for Starbucks include expanding its store count to 20,000 locations, which poses challenges in terms of pricing and operational adjustments [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities emphasizes the increasing importance of online channels in the restaurant industry, particularly the balance between takeout and dine-in services to enhance profitability and efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Online Channels - Online channels are becoming a key growth engine for the restaurant industry, with takeout revenue potentially reaching 60-70% for fast food and coffee sectors, while traditional dining experiences are declining [1][3]. - National restaurant revenue growth is slowing, with a reported increase of only 3.3% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, indicating a shift from aggressive expansion to a more stable growth phase [1]. Group 2: Takeout Adaptability Across Different Formats - The adaptability of various restaurant formats to takeout is ranked from highest to lowest: beverages & fast food > casual dining > hot pot, with takeout revenue for coffee and fast food potentially reaching 50-70% [2]. - The adaptability is influenced by the type of service required, frequency of consumption, and the complexity of delivery logistics [2]. Group 3: Balancing Takeout and Dine-in - A healthy takeout ratio is crucial for restaurant brands, as it can significantly improve operational efficiency and brand competitiveness; however, over-reliance on takeout can lead to a loss of brand identity and profitability [3]. - The optimal takeout revenue ratio for fast food and coffee is suggested to be 60-70%, while for traditional dining, it is 30-40% to avoid operational inefficiencies [3]. Group 4: Strategies for Internal Growth - Restaurants should establish a takeout revenue threshold and innovate their takeout offerings while also focusing on building a proprietary membership system to convert external traffic into internal loyalty [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The industry is rated as "outperforming the market," with a focus on balancing takeout and dine-in strategies tailored to consumer trends and brand positioning [5]. - Recommended companies include Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, Guming, Mixue Group, Haidilao, and Yum China, with additional attention on Green Tea Group, Dashihua, Tongqinglou, Guangzhou Restaurant, Jiumaojiu, and Chabaidao [5].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy - The core conclusion indicates that the bull market initiated in 2024 is not over, transitioning into its second phase, with the driving force shifting from sentiment to fundamentals [6] - Technology is identified as the main theme, with a focus on AI glasses, robotics, intelligent driving, AI programming, and AI in life sciences [6][7] - The bull market is characterized by structural features, with "small assets" outperforming "old assets," and the market is currently in the explosive phase of the bull market [6][7] Group 2: Industry and Company Analysis - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to stable growth, with online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] - Different restaurant formats have varying adaptability to delivery services, with beverages and fast food showing the highest adaptability [8][9] - A balanced approach between dine-in and delivery is crucial for restaurant brands to maintain brand recognition and profitability [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform the market" rating for the restaurant industry, emphasizing the need for brands to adapt to consumer trends and optimize their cost-benefit ratios [11] - Specific recommendations include companies like Xiaocaiyuan, Guoquan, and Haidilao, while also suggesting attention to Meituan-W as a platform leader [11] Group 4: Company Financial Performance - Beike-W reported a 2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion RMB [15] - The adjusted net profit for Beike-W decreased by 28% year-on-year, indicating challenges in profitability despite revenue growth [15][16] - Yonyou Network's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.584 billion RMB, a 2.7% decline year-on-year, but showed a positive growth trend in Q3 [19][20]

Group 1: Macau Gaming Industry - The gaming revenue in Macau for 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with high-end consumption showing resilience due to supply constraints. Monthly gaming revenue from April to July consistently surpassed expectations, with October's gross gaming revenue reaching 24.1 billion MOP, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4][12] - Visitor numbers in Macau are projected to approach 2019 levels, with total inbound visitors from January to September 2025 reaching 29.67 million, a year-on-year increase of 14%, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels [12][13] - The gaming sector is experiencing upward momentum, with the gross gaming revenue recovering to 88% of 2019 levels in Q3 2025, driven by a 13% year-on-year increase [7][9] - The valuation of gaming companies is currently at low levels, presenting potential investment opportunities [15][18] Group 2: Online Travel Industry - The online travel industry is experiencing stable growth, with domestic residents' travel numbers increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, and travel spending rising by 12% [30][31] - The competitive landscape in the online travel sector remains stable, with high entry barriers due to supply chain and customer service advantages [32][33] - Tongcheng Travel is expected to see gradual improvement in profit margins, with a 14% year-on-year increase in core OTA business revenue in Q2 2025 [41][42] Group 3: Restaurant Industry - The restaurant sector is currently in a recovery phase, with the growth rate of social retail dining revenue lagging behind overall social retail growth [50][51] - The chain rate in China's restaurant services is steadily increasing, projected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% in 2025, although it remains below the global average of 35% [53][54] - Companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are experiencing high growth rates due to rapid store expansion and effective marketing strategies [59][60]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market's consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the consumer ETF (513230) showing a slight decline. Notable performers included Samsonite, which surged over 21%, while companies like Wynn Macau and Miniso faced significant declines [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing major players in the internet e-commerce and new consumption sectors, including Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Miniso, alongside tech giants like Tencent and Alibaba [2] - During this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, total online retail sales reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a new high with a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The "Double 11" event is shifting from a product-driven model to one focused on services, experiences, and emotional value, reflecting changing consumer preferences [1] - The integration of AI technology in e-commerce is becoming increasingly prominent, with platforms aiming to leverage AI to create a "second growth curve" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the restaurant industry [4]. Core Insights - The restaurant industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to a new phase of steady growth, with a 3.3% year-on-year increase in cumulative revenue from January to September 2025, which is lower than the growth rate of social retail sales [14][15]. - The importance of online channels, particularly food delivery, is increasingly recognized as traditional shopping district advantages diminish and foot traffic conversion rates decline [20][26]. - Different restaurant formats exhibit varying degrees of adaptability to food delivery, with beverage and fast food categories showing the highest compatibility, while hot pot restaurants have the lowest [33][39]. Summary by Sections New Changes - The online channel's significance is becoming more pronounced, with a 22.8% share of the national restaurant revenue attributed to the food delivery market, which is projected to reach approximately 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [20][21]. - The number of new shopping centers opened in 2024 fell to a ten-year low, indicating a retreat of traditional shopping district advantages [15]. Adaptability of Different Formats - The adaptability of various restaurant formats to food delivery is ranked as follows: beverage and fast food > casual dining > hot pot, with delivery revenue proportions reaching 60-70% for fast food and beverages, while casual dining ranges from 15-40% [33][39]. - The compatibility of restaurant formats with food delivery is influenced by the type of consumer demand, frequency of consumption, and the complexity of supply and delivery [36][39]. Balancing Delivery and Dine-in - A healthy balance between delivery and dine-in is crucial for restaurant brands, with optimal delivery revenue proportions estimated at 30-40% for casual dining and up to 60-70% for fast food and beverages [2][3]. - Brands that overly rely on delivery may risk losing brand recognition and profitability, emphasizing the need for a strategic approach to manage both channels effectively [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can effectively balance online and offline strategies, highlighting brands like Xiaocaiyuan, Gu Ming, and Meituan-W as key players in the industry [4][8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector experienced fluctuations, with the consumer ETF (513230) showing a slight decline as of the report time [1] - Notable performers included Samsonite, which surged over 21%, while companies like Wynn Macau and Miniso faced significant declines [1] - The "Double 11" shopping festival saw online retail sales reach nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, marking a new high with a year-on-year growth of over 10% [1] Group 2 - The consumer ETF (513230) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index, encompassing a wide range of sectors including new consumption leaders and major internet e-commerce players [2] - The ETF includes companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and major tech firms such as Tencent and Alibaba, highlighting a strong tech-consumer integration [2]