Core Insights - The rare earth sector has experienced a significant surge, with notable stocks such as Galaxy Magnetic Materials hitting the daily limit, and Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth rising over 8% [1][2] - The E Fund Rare Earth ETF (159715) has increased by 4.18% year-to-date, with an impressive annual growth of 86.94%, ranking it among the top ETFs [1] Industry Developments - The Ministry of Commerce has announced export controls on certain medium and heavy rare earths, related materials, and technologies [2] - Major rare earth companies, Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, have raised their prices, leading to a 37% increase in rare earth concentrate prices, the highest since Q2 2023 [2] - Northern Rare Earth is projected to report a net profit of between 1.51 billion to 1.57 billion yuan for the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 272.54% to 287.34% [2] Market Outlook - Everbright Securities indicates that supply constraints due to technology export controls will continue, while demand remains resilient, suggesting potential new growth points in the future [2] - The valuation of rare earths is expected to benefit from their inherent value as resources and strategic metals, maintaining a bullish outlook on the rare earth permanent magnet sector [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 8%, with a transaction volume of 638 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 598 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 150 million yuan in the last two weeks, showing significant growth [3] Group 2: Fund Growth Metrics - The Rare Earth ETF saw a share increase of 2.197 billion shares over the past three months, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - As of October 10, the net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 85.56% over the past year, placing it in the top 0.55% among 3,064 index equity funds [3] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 41.25% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being four months and an average monthly return of 10.78% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has announced strengthened export controls on rare earth-related items, highlighting the strategic importance of rare earth resources and increasing market attention on the sector [3] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a supply-demand resonance, with China's quota management and export controls enhancing strategic control over the industry chain [4] - The global green transition and dual carbon goals are driving demand for key elements like praseodymium and neodymium, leading to rapid expansion in new applications such as permanent magnetic materials [4] Group 4: Key Stocks in the Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index account for 61.96% of the index, with notable performers including Northern Rare Earth (6.90% increase) and China Rare Earth (6.05% increase) [6] - Other significant stocks include Baotou Steel (9.84% increase) and Shenghe Resources (5.01% increase), while some stocks like China Aluminum and Liying Intelligent Manufacturing experienced declines [6]

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices increased, with Shanghai copper closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. Domestic output remains relatively low for the year, while the influence of overseas mines on copper prices has weakened. The widening price gap between domestic and international markets has led to increased export expectations and a decline in import expectations [1][3] - Demand for copper is showing weakness, with some downstream companies expressing concerns about October consumption due to high prices. Market volatility has raised concerns about order execution, increasing operational risks [3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices rose, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,980 yuan/ton. Supply has slightly decreased due to capacity transfer from Shandong to Yunnan and maintenance in some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shanxi. Overall, theoretical operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly reduced [3] - The price of domestic alumina continues to decline, with an average price of 2,979.29 yuan/ton, down 35.46 yuan/ton from the previous week. The theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease [3] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices increased, with domestic gold averaging 871.03 yuan/gram, up 3.99% from the previous week, and silver averaging 10,856 yuan/kilogram, up 6.72%. The rise is driven by strong safe-haven demand amid U.S. government shutdown concerns and declining bond yields [4] - COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1.04% to 52,612.43 million ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver delivery inventory fell by 1.95% to 1,169.06 tons [4] Group 4: Antimony Market - The antimony market continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots decreasing by 1,000 yuan/ton. The supply side faces challenges due to declining mining grades and restrictions on mining volumes [5] - Demand remains cautious, with no significant replenishment observed post-holiday, leading to a focus on just-in-time purchasing [5] Group 5: Rare Earth Market - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced four export control policies for the rare earth industry, aiming to strengthen the entire industry chain. This is expected to enhance China's competitive advantage in the rare earth sector [2][6] - Prices for light rare earths decreased by 0.6%, while medium and heavy rare earths saw slight increases. The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan [6]

Group 1: Copper Market - The threat of US tariffs has resurfaced, causing a liquidity shock that led to a decline in copper prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][3] - Recent disturbances in the supply of copper from the world's second-largest copper mine and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts previously pushed LME copper prices to $11,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices to over ¥88,000 per ton [2][3] - On November 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to significant liquidation of long positions, resulting in a 4.5% drop in both Shanghai and LME copper prices [2][3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is also experiencing a decline due to the renewed threat of US tariffs and liquidity shocks [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.68% to ¥2,930 per ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 4.62% to ¥2,806 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased by 10.15% to 651,000 tons, but the demand season is expected to lead to a destocking cycle, with potential price recovery once liquidity shocks ease [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium prices are expected to rebound from the bottom as demand enters a destocking cycle during the peak season [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate remains stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium spodumene has decreased by 2.21% to $839 per ton [4][5] - The production of lithium carbonate has increased by 0.6% to 20,600 tons, and inventory has decreased by 1.5% to 134,800 tons [4][5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will implement a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to accelerate price increases [6] - The price of cobalt has risen by 4.19% to $19.90 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.87% to ¥359,000 per ton [6] - The DRC's cobalt export quota for the period from October 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,100 tons, which is expected to significantly narrow the surplus and potentially lead to a shortage [6]

Macro and Strategy Research - The U.S. government is in a shutdown due to a lack of agreement on a temporary funding bill, leading to a focus on private sector data as official reports are absent. The ADP employment numbers for September showed a larger-than-expected decline, indicating a continued weakening trend in employment. Manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly rebounded but remains in contraction territory, with new orders reflecting weak demand in the manufacturing sector. Non-manufacturing PMI is also not optimistic, with price components slightly rising due to tariff cost transmission [2][3] - In Europe and Japan, political instability is evident with the resignation of the French Prime Minister and the election of a right-leaning leader in Japan, creating uncertainty in the political landscape. The European Central Bank has no immediate plans for rate cuts, while the Bank of Japan's rate hike process may slow down due to policy direction [3] - Domestic consumption has been boosted by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption. However, the real estate market shows signs of weakness, particularly in first-tier cities, and the central bank is expected to adopt a more flexible and anticipatory policy approach in the fourth quarter [2][3] Fixed Income Research - In Q3 2025, the central bank maintained support for the market with significant net injections through reverse repos and MLF, keeping funding prices low. The issuance of government bonds decreased, but net financing remained high due to reduced maturity volumes. The bond market showed a bear steepening trend, with investor confidence in buying bonds remaining low [5][6] - Looking ahead to Q4, the bond market is expected to remain under pressure, but the situation is anticipated to improve compared to Q3. The key indicators to watch include PPI, which will influence bond pricing. The central bank's continued support and potential resumption of bond purchases are expected to stabilize interest rates [6][7] Industry Research Metal Industry - The steel industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand post-holiday, but supply may also increase, making significant improvements in the fundamentals unlikely. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is a key event to monitor for industry developments [8] - For copper, global supply remains tight, providing support for prices, but general demand and high prices may pressure future price increases. Aluminum prices are expected to face limitations due to high costs affecting purchasing sentiment [8][9] - Gold prices are influenced by the U.S. entering a rate cut cycle and political risks from the government shutdown. If the shutdown is resolved and economic data remains strong, gold may face short-term corrections [9][10] - Lithium supply concerns have eased with approvals for resource reports, but short-term oversupply pressures may affect prices. Rare earth prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by domestic export policies and overseas demand [9][10] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Industry - The recent World Lung Cancer Conference highlighted the R&D capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The National Medical Products Administration has initiated the 11th round of centralized drug procurement [12][13] - The medical care CPI for August showed a 0.9% year-on-year increase, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing PPI decreased by 2.9%. Cumulative revenue and profit in the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector have declined by 2.0% and 3.9%, respectively, in the first eight months of 2025 [13] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a pullback in September, with a focus on the upcoming ESMO conference and third-quarter earnings reports. There is potential for improvement in fundamentals, particularly in innovative drugs and medical devices [14][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth in China's aluminum material production, with a reported output of 576 million tons in April 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Cumulative aluminum production from January to April 2025 reached 2,111.7 million tons, showing a cumulative growth of 0.9% [1] Group 2 - The article references key companies in the aluminum industry, including China Aluminum (601600), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), and Nanshan Aluminum (600219) [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the market development potential and investment risks in the aluminum material industry in China from 2025 to 2031 [1]

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 10 月 12 日 美国关税冲击再起，关注黄金、稀 土等板块 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报20251006-20251010 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37%，深证成指下跌 1.26%，沪深 300 下跌 0.51%，有色金属（申万） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent drop in copper and aluminum prices is a short-term liquidity shock due to renewed U.S. tariff threats, but the long-term upward trend for copper remains intact [5] - The report suggests that the supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight to shortage due to frequent supply disruptions and the U.S. entering a monetary easing cycle [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper among others for potential investment opportunities [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all goods imported from China starting November 1, 2025, which has raised market risk aversion [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 4.44% compared to the index's 0.37% [11][12] - The report notes that copper, magnetic materials, and rare earths performed well, while copper materials and cobalt lagged behind [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 27.81, with a weekly change of 2.98 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.33, reflecting a change of 0.36 [21] 4. Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.89%, while Shanghai copper prices rose by 3.37% [26] - The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, with a loss of 2738 yuan/ton [26] 5. Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 3.09%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.61% [38] - The report notes that aluminum smelting margins improved to 5133 yuan/ton [38] 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices remained stable at 73550 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 2.21% to 839 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium smelting margins are negative, with losses reported [74] 7. Cobalt - The price of MB cobalt increased by 4.19% to 19.90 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices rose by 2.87% to 359000 yuan/ton [87] - The report highlights that cobalt supply may tighten due to new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [87]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 关税问题再次升级，短期如有调整带来买入良机 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 由于特朗普关税威胁，美股大跌，工业金属价格本周大涨，周五大幅回落。本 周贵金属冲高之后横盘，周五冲高。4 月美国关税超预期，市场经历过压力测 试，预计本次对工业金属压力相对可控。我们认为以铜为代表的有色金属大叙 事不改，短期调整是加仓的机会。周四连发四文全方位升级稀土出口管制，看 好稀土的战略地位提升。我们持续看好有色资源股，调整买入。重点关注铜金 银铝钴稀土钨锑镍铀等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6038.2 | 5.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5646.1 | 5.9 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.4 | 59.4 | 62.2 | | 相对表现 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 46.8 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Leading the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the impact of recent geopolitical events, including the U.S. government shutdown and potential tariffs on Chinese imports, which have led to increased prices for precious and industrial metals [1][2]. - There is a focus on the strategic attributes of rare earth metals and the safe-haven properties of gold in the short term, while maintaining a long-term outlook on the fundamentals of copper, aluminum, tin, cobalt, and tantalum [1]. - The report suggests that the recent announcements from the U.S. and China regarding rare earths indicate a shift towards dual control of technology and supply chains, which may lead to a new round of price increases in the rare earth sector [7]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen increases of 3.6% and 3.0% respectively, with COMEX gold closing at $3986.2 per ounce and silver at $47.4 per ounce [2]. - The market is expected to continue favoring gold due to policy uncertainties and rising demand for silver, which has been included in the U.S. critical minerals list [2]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have increased, with LME copper closing at $10,374 per ton, reflecting a 0.86% rise [3]. - Supply constraints from major producers and a slight recovery in demand post-holiday are expected to support copper prices [3]. - Aluminum prices have also risen, with LME aluminum at $2,746 per ton, although recent geopolitical tensions have caused some volatility [3][7]. Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the growing anxiety in the U.S. and Europe regarding the supply of rare earth materials, particularly for AI and military applications [8]. - Recent policy changes in China regarding rare earth management are expected to influence market dynamics positively, with potential price increases anticipated [8]. - Cobalt prices are on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, particularly in the context of the upcoming export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [8].