2025 年 04 月 27 日 政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 《火电降幅收窄叠加进口减量，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.20 《贸易摩擦升级内需有望发力，否极 泰来重视煤炭配置 —行业周报》- 2025.4.13 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 煤炭 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/31 《美国关税超预期致市场趋于避险， 重视煤炭攻守兼备 —行业周报》- 2025.4.6 张绪成（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520020003 本周要闻回顾：政治局会议传递"稳"字当头，否极泰来重视煤炭配置 （1）动力煤方面：从价格端来看，本周动力煤港口价格小跌，截至 4 月 25 日，秦 港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 655 元/吨，环比下跌 8 元/吨，跌幅 1.21%；CCTD 动力 煤现货价（Q5500）为 66 ...

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose later, while the CSI 300 Energy Index fell by 0.82% to 2106.64 points, with a trading volume of 4.239 billion yuan. The CSI 300 Energy Index has decreased by 0.31% over the past month, 5.24% over the past three months, and 13.23% year-to-date [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI 300 Energy Index has shown a decline of 0.31% in the last month, 5.24% in the last three months, and 13.23% year-to-date [1]. - The top ten holdings in the CSI 300 Energy Index include China Shenhua (25.01%), China Petroleum (17.54%), and China Petrochemical (16.09%) [1]. Group 2: Market Composition - The CSI 300 Energy Index is composed of 96.30% from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 3.70% from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2]. - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Energy Index includes coal (50.97%), integrated oil and gas companies (33.62%), and fuel refining (10.16%) [2]. Group 3: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2]. - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of coal allocation due to the narrowing decline in thermal power and reduced imports, indicating a potential recovery in the coal market [1][3] - The coal market is expected to enter a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets likely to rise again, supported by stable domestic production and improving supply-demand fundamentals [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The current weak domestic economic performance and external pressures from tariff policies are leading to a favorable environment for coal as a stable dividend investment [4][12] - The cyclical elasticity of coal stocks is highlighted, with both thermal and coking coal prices at low levels, suggesting potential for rebound as supply-demand conditions improve [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal sector saw a small increase of 2.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.12 percentage points [7][9] - The current PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.5, and the PB ratio is 1.2, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [9][13] Coal Price Trends - Port coal prices have stabilized, with CCTD Q5500 pricing at 674 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [3][15] - Domestic coal production remains stable, with a reported industrial raw coal output of 440 million tons in March, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [3][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of April 18, the inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim reached 31.948 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons (6.9%) [3][15] - Daily coal consumption at coastal power plants totaled 1.774 million tons, a decrease of 83,000 tons (4.47%) compared to the previous period [3][15] Company Performance and Recommendations - Selected coal stocks are expected to benefit from the current market conditions, with recommendations for companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy based on their dividend potential [4][12][13] - The report indicates a trend of increasing dividends among coal companies, enhancing their attractiveness as investment options [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by the seasonal decline in demand and the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season, limiting upward momentum [1] - Short-term demand remains reliant on long-term contracts and essential purchases by power plants, while non-electric enterprises show weak demand due to warmer weather and high inventory levels, making significant price increases unlikely in the short term [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week of April 14 to April 18, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 27 yuan/ton, closing at 663 yuan/ton [1] - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.7611 million tons, a decrease of 75,300 tons week-on-week, down 4.10% [1] - The average daily outflow from the same ports was 1.4799 million tons, a decrease of 371,000 tons week-on-week, down 20.04% [1] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 31.948 million tons, up 2.07 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 6.93% [1] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the production site showed a slight decline, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong at 555 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [18] - The price for 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou decreased by 90 yuan/ton, closing at 800 yuan/ton [18] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remained stable at 678 yuan/ton [21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a continued focus on the influx of insurance capital, with premium income maintaining positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies [2][37] - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][37] Shipping and Logistics - Domestic shipping costs increased by 2.45 yuan/ton, closing at 37.45 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.95% [35]

Group 1: Company Analysis - Lu'an Huanneng is identified as a leading enterprise in the blowing coal sector, characterized by pure business operations and high elasticity. Despite being in a downward coal price cycle, the company's current price-to-book (PB) ratio presents value, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 at 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, translating to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan respectively. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 13, 16, and 11 times, leading to an "overweight" rating [2] - Bailing Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 27.675 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.32% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 292.73% to 1.567 billion yuan. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in consumer spending, with net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 473 million and 519 million yuan, respectively, and a new forecast for 2027 set at 565 million yuan [19] Group 2: Industry Insights - The impact of the US-China tariff conflict on domestic electricity consumption is deemed limited. The electric machinery and equipment manufacturing sector, which has a significant export volume to the US, shows that tariff changes will not substantially affect overall electricity demand. Historical data from July 2018 to January 2020 indicates that the hydropower sector outperformed, while thermal power slightly lagged but still surpassed wind, solar, and nuclear power sectors. Recommended stocks include Yangtze Power and Sichuan Investment Energy in the hydropower sector, and Huadian International and Anhui Energy in the thermal power sector [6] - The recent tariff imposition by the US has led to a preemptive increase in consumer purchasing behavior, with March retail sales in the US showing a month-on-month growth of 1.4%, a significant rise from February's 0.2%. However, this surge may lead to a potential weakening of future retail demand, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance in the short term [15]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The large-scale tariffs implemented by Trump in early April 2025 led to a surge in consumer purchases in March, resulting in a month-on-month retail growth rate of +1.4%, a significant increase from February's +0.2% [2] - However, this front-loading of consumer demand may lead to a weakening of future retail data, indicating potential risks for upcoming consumption trends [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The real estate sector is identified as the largest driver of domestic demand, with a recommendation for strategic investment in the real estate supply chain, including leading companies such as Beike-W, China State Construction, and major cement and glass producers like Conch Cement and Qibin Group [3] - The report suggests that these companies are positioned well due to the cyclical bottoming and improving profitability, alongside potential policy support [3] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The IEA and OPEC have lowered their oil demand forecasts for 2025, yet there is a strong outlook for the "three oil giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their low valuations, high dividends, and resilient performance [4] - The report also highlights opportunities in domestic substitutes for semiconductor materials and panel materials, as well as in the pesticide and fertilizer sectors [4] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - For Shida Shenghua, the report anticipates a decline in profitability for 2024 due to the low demand in the lithium battery sector, with net profits projected to drop significantly in 2025 and 2026 [5] - Despite this, the company is expanding its production capacity for electrolyte products, which may provide growth opportunities in the future [5] Group 5: Coal Industry - Lu'an Environmental Energy is recognized as a leading producer of injection coal, with a strong business model and high elasticity, despite current coal price declines [7] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 2.62 billion, 2.14 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 0.71, and 1.01 yuan [7] Group 6: High-End Manufacturing - Su Shi Testing is facing short-term performance pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 4.31% in 2024, but is expected to benefit from recovering downstream demand and new industry layouts [8] - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.04 billion, 3.81 billion, and 4.62 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [8] Group 7: Renewable Energy - Guoneng Rixin is expected to maintain steady growth, with a projected net profit of 0.94 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 11.09% year-on-year increase [9] - The company is advancing its product upgrades and is well-positioned to meet increasing demand in the distributed energy sector [9] Group 8: Electrical Equipment - Huaming Equipment reported an 18.41% increase in revenue for 2024, with net profits rising by 13.25% [10] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and is expected to achieve net profits of 7.09 billion, 8.09 billion, and 9.15 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [10] Group 9: Communication Technology - Hengwei Technology has revised its net profit forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, but maintains a positive long-term growth outlook [11] - The projected net profits for 2027 are expected to reach 2.41 billion yuan, indicating potential recovery [11] Group 10: Beverage Industry - Dongpeng Beverage reported a strong start to 2025, with a revenue increase of 39.23% in Q1 and a net profit growth of 47.62% [12] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 4.483 billion, 5.684 billion, and 6.836 billion yuan, suggesting robust growth potential [12] Group 11: Catalyst and Advanced Materials - Zhongzi Technology's catalyst business is expected to benefit from the implementation of the National VII standards, with a strategic focus on high-end composite materials [13] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are -0.27 billion, 0.57 billion, and 2.38 billion yuan, indicating a potential turnaround [13]

山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 2025 年 3 月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 3 月 | 2024 | 年 3 月 | 同比变化（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本月 | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | | 原煤产量 | 万吨 | 470 | 1357 | 454 | 1324 | 3.52 | 2.49 | | 商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 409 | 1187 | 385 | 1181 | 6.23 | 0.51 | 以上主要运营数据来自本公司初步统计，可能与公司定期报告披 露的数据有差异，仅供投资者及时了解公司生产经营状况，不对公司 未来经营状况作出预测或承诺，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资 风险。 证券代码：601699 股票简称：潞安环能 编号：2025-007 特此公告。 2025 年 4 月 16 日 山西潞安环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a recent increase of 0.83%, closing at 2023.17 points with a trading volume of 38.13 billion yuan, despite a year-to-date decline of 5.83% [1][2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has decreased by 1.38% over the past month, but has increased by 0.13% over the last three months [2]. - The index reflects the overall performance of 100 listed companies selected for their high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, with a base date of June 30, 2009, set at 1000.0 points [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: COSCO Shipping Holdings (2.6%), Jizhong Energy (1.97%), Shanxi Coal International (1.4%), Chengdu Bank (1.36%), Shanxi Coking Coal (1.35%), Tangshan Port (1.32%), Shanghai Bank (1.31%), Lu'an Environmental Energy (1.3%), China Shenhua Energy (1.28%), and Hengyuan Coal Power (1.27%) [2]. - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (82.98%) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (17.02%) [2]. Group 3: Sector Allocation - The sector allocation of the index holdings is as follows: Financials (28.01%), Industrials (26.15%), Energy (20.16%), Materials (9.19%), Communication Services (5.34%), Real Estate (3.75%), Utilities (3.34%), Consumer Discretionary (3.24%), and Consumer Staples (0.82%) [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [3]. - Criteria for sample retention include: actual control by state-owned entities, a cash dividend yield greater than 0.5% over the past year, and ranking within the top 90% for average market capitalization and trading volume [3]. - The adjustment ratio is generally limited to 20%, with special conditions allowing for temporary adjustments in case of delisting or significant corporate changes [3]. Group 5: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index include: Western Leading State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index Enhanced C, Pengyang China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Linked A, and several others [4].