行 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降 ...

Market Overview - A-shares saw a collective rise today, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.54% closing at 3924.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.39% at 13329.99 points, and the ChiNext Index up 2.60% at 3190.27 points [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20.366 trillion, a significant increase of 310.9 billion compared to the previous trading day [3] Policy Impacts - Two major favorable policies can be summarized as "increasing leverage." The first comes from the Financial Regulatory Bureau, which lowered the risk factor for insurance funds investing in CSI 300 constituent stocks and related ETFs from 0.3 to 0.27, potentially releasing around 100 billion in investable funds [5] - The second policy from the CSRC aims to broaden capital space for quality brokerages and relax leverage restrictions, indicating a direction for brokers to "increase leverage" [5] - Both policies target the issue of market funding, reflecting a clear understanding from management regarding the utilization of market funding tools [5] Sector Performance - Financial stocks served as a platform for the market, with the brokerage sector leading the charge, particularly with CITIC Securities driving gains in insurance and banking stocks [5] - However, financial stocks experienced a pullback, with the brokerage sector's gains narrowing to 1.26% and the insurance sector up 1.17% by the end of trading [5] - In contrast, technology stocks emerged as the main focus, with significant performances from companies like Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang, leading to substantial gains in the tech sector [6][7] Market Dynamics - The market displayed a mixed performance, with technology stocks being the core focus of capital, while other sectors like consumer stocks showed signs of adjustment [8] - Notably, heavyweight stocks such as China Mobile, China National Offshore Oil, and Kweichow Moutai were among those experiencing declines [8] - The market's overall trading volume surged to 2 trillion, primarily concentrated in the morning session, with a total of approximately 3220 stocks rising and 1838 falling by the end of the day [7] Hong Kong Market Observations - The Hong Kong market exhibited unusual behavior, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum intraday drop of over 1% and closing near that level [9] - The southbound capital flow remains low, with a net outflow observed during the midday session, indicating a continued lack of investment interest in the Hong Kong market [9]

Group 1 - The aquaculture sector experienced a decline of 0.26% on December 8, with Huaying Agriculture leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3924.08, up 0.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13329.99, up 1.39% [1] - Key stocks in the aquaculture sector showed varied performance, with Jingji Zhino rising by 4.79% to 13.35 and Huaying Agriculture falling by 4.38% to 2.62 [2] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds in the aquaculture sector was 106 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 151 million yuan [2] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 44.86 million yuan [2] - The detailed fund flow for key stocks indicates that Zhengbang Technology had a net inflow of 66.93 million yuan from main funds, while Huaying Agriculture saw a net outflow of 12.83 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

农林学文 主 2025 年 12 月 08 日 站玩人分出品 申万宏源研究微信服务号 猪价继续震荡走弱, 亏损 能去化提速 – 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 看好 相关研究 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 ● (16.2%)、平潭发展 (10.6%)、西王食品 (10.3%)、生物股份 (9.7%)、福建金森 (9.4%)，跌幅前五名：绿康生化（-10.1%）、ST 天山（-8.9%）、*ST 傲农（-6.5%） 中水 渔业 (-6.5%)、益生股份 (-5.3%)。 投资分析意见：行业亏损加剧，产能加速去化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is still in the research and development phase for its snowflake pork project, and has not yet achieved stable mass production [1][3] - The company is committed to continuing the breeding of high-quality breeding pigs to produce premium pork for society [1] - There is a lack of clear information regarding the product standards, trial production scale, and commercialization path for the snowflake pork project, as highlighted by investor inquiries [3] Group 2 - The company has not yet defined the product specifications and quality standards for the snowflake pork [3] - The research and trial production have not reached a stable phase, and the current trial production scale is unspecified [3] - The project is considered a core business for the company in enhancing value-added products and promoting consumer transformation [3]

行 业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 - 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 08 日 猪价继续震荡走弱，亏损加剧、产 能去化提速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2025.12.1-2025.12.7） 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 1.5%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%。个股涨幅前五名：好当家 （16.2%）、平潭发展（10.6%）、西王食品（10.3%）、生物股份（9.7%）、福建金森 （9.4%），跌幅前五名：绿康生化 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Influence Entrepreneur Annual Conference, hosted by China Entrepreneur Magazine, focuses on the theme "Emergence·Infinity - Co-creating a New Form of Intelligent Business" [1][14] - Over 100 prominent entrepreneurs participated in nearly 60 discussions, addressing topics such as the rise of artificial intelligence, changes in consumer environments, and strategies for business growth [1][14] - The conference emphasizes the transformative power of intelligent technology in reshaping industries and creating new business opportunities [1][14] Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference took place on December 6-7 in Beijing, featuring discussions on AI, automotive industry, globalization, low-altitude economy, and cultural confidence [1][14] - The theme aligns with the national strategy of implementing "Artificial Intelligence+" to accelerate scientific discovery and promote enterprise intelligence upgrades [4][15] - Keynote speeches highlighted the need for entrepreneurs to rethink value creation, growth drivers, and the boundaries of competition and cooperation in the face of rapid business transformation [4][16] Group 2: Key Discussions - The "Cross-Border Dialogue" segment featured discussions on the collaboration between carbon-based life and silicon-based intelligence, emphasizing the need for humanistic awareness in technological advancement [6][18] - The automotive industry is expected to see advancements in hybrid technology, accelerated intelligence integration, and increased export activities by 2025 [6][18] - The "Future Dialogue" segment explored the commercialization of low-altitude economy scenarios, including logistics and transportation, and the importance of safety management and technological innovation [7][19] Group 3: Cultural and Ethical Considerations - The conference underscored the connection between cultural confidence and corporate governance, with discussions on integrating cultural values into business operations [9][21] - The "ESG Forum" highlighted the necessity for companies to internalize environmental protection as a driving force for value creation, aiming to build a "zero-carbon economy" [9][21] Group 4: Future Trends and Innovations - The "High Summit Dialogue" addressed new consumption models, brand longevity, and the role of robotics in productivity, indicating a shift towards long-term strategic thinking in business [10][22] - The year 2025 is identified as a critical turning point for AI, transitioning from large model technology to the accelerated application of intelligent agents [10][22] - The closing forum discussed the integration of AI with core business practices, organizational culture, and talent structures, emphasizing the need for adaptability in the evolving economic landscape [11][23]

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...

Core Insights - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, particularly recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as key beneficiaries [1][12] - The monthly recommended investment portfolio includes leading companies in the livestock sector such as Yuran Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, indicating a bullish outlook on their performance [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly from 2025 to 2027 [14] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to a reduction in production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, suggesting an acceleration in the culling of dairy cows [14] - Key recommendations in the livestock sector include Yuran Agriculture and Modern Farming, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price recovery in raw milk and beef [14][19] Swine Sector - The swine sector is characterized by a gradual recovery in prices, with a focus on leading companies such as Huazhong Holdings, Dekang Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, which are expected to outperform due to their low-cost advantages [15][22] - The report notes that the average price of live pigs was 11.25 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 10% month-on-month decline, while the price of piglets increased by 18% [22][23] - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the swine sector are likely to see significant cash flow improvements and increased dividend payouts as the industry stabilizes [15][21] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is experiencing a slight increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, where prices have shown a modest increase [24][30] - The report indicates that the price of white chicken was 7.10 yuan/kg at the end of November, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month increase, while chick prices have decreased [25][30] - Recommendations for the poultry sector include leading companies such as Lihua Holdings and Shengnong Development, which are expected to maintain strong profitability amid improving market conditions [17][24] Pet Industry - The pet industry is identified as a promising growth area, benefiting from rising consumer sentiment and the emergence of domestic brands, with key recommendations including Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [16][20] - The report highlights that the domestic pet food export volume decreased by 3.88% month-on-month, indicating potential challenges in the export market [20] - The growth of high-end domestic brands during promotional events like Double 11 is noted, suggesting a strong market presence and growth potential for local players [20][21] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that soybean meal prices are at historical lows, while corn prices have increased by 4% month-on-month to 2289 yuan/ton [2][22] - The report indicates that the supply of eggs is under pressure due to increasing production, while the demand for corn is expected to stabilize as new crops come to market [2][22] - The overall agricultural sector is projected to experience a recovery, with specific attention to the planting chain and companies with strong R&D capabilities [17][19]

Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a significant reversal in the livestock cycle, recommending Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks as core investments [1][12] - The monthly recommended portfolio includes YouRan Agriculture, Modern Farming, and Muyuan Foods, which are leaders in their respective sectors [1][3] Livestock Sector - The livestock sector is expected to benefit from a cyclical rebound, with a focus on both beef and milk production, as domestic prices are projected to rise significantly by 2027 [14][40] - The report highlights that the domestic milk price has been in decline for nearly four years, leading to pressure on production capacity, while the beef-to-milk price ratio has reached historical highs, prompting faster culling of dairy cows [14][40] Swine Sector - The swine sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved cash flows and dividend potential as industry capacity contracts [1][15] - The report emphasizes that the current valuation of leading swine companies is at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [15][22] Poultry Sector - The poultry sector is seeing an increase in supply, with expectations for demand recovery, particularly in the white-feathered chicken segment, which is entering a consumption peak [24][30] - The report notes that the price of broiler chickens has shown a slight recovery, with a projected increase in profitability for leading poultry companies [24][30] Pet Sector - The pet industry is identified as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and emotional consumer trends [16][20] - The report recommends leading pet food companies, which are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product upgrades and direct sales transformations [20][16] Feed Sector - The feed sector is highlighted for its deepening industrialization and clear division of labor, with leading companies expected to widen their competitive advantages through technology and service [1][3] Agricultural Products - The report tracks agricultural product prices, noting that the price of corn has increased by 4% month-on-month, while soybean meal prices are at historical lows, indicating a potential for future recovery [2][22] - The report also mentions that the egg market is under pressure from supply increases, while the demand for soybeans is tightening in the medium to long term [2][18]