东吴证券主要观点如下： 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2 中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际 新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐 湖新增8.4万吨(麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措)、国内矿山6.6万吨(枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、 湘源矿)、海外盐湖6.9万吨(3Q、Mariana和CO)、澳矿的7.8万吨(泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达 产)、非矿11.5万吨(中企产能打满，同时Manono、Sandawana、海南矿业爬坡，以及尼日利亚等增量)， 并且新增产能多集中26Q3。 供需：26全年偏紧，Q1和Q4最紧缺，Q2-3相对缓解，28年或过剩 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若 津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨。供需端，26Q1和Q4 最为紧缺，Q2-Q3供给紧缺阶段性略微缓解，但26Q4将出现供给短缺。价格端，锂价合理中枢15 ...

全球第四大锂生产国津巴布韦于2月25日突然宣布：即日起全面暂停锂原矿及锂精矿出口，禁令覆 盖已在途货物，恢复时间另行通知。此举标志该国资源本地化加工战略超预期落地，政府明确要求企业 在当地完成深加工，并规划2026年实现硫酸锂量产。 津巴布韦锂储量约1.26亿吨，位居全球前列，是近年全球锂原料的重要增量来源。此次出口禁令直 接收紧全球锂供应链，短期将显著加剧原料供给紧张，对依赖津巴布韦货源的海外精炼企业形成直接冲 击。 受此重磅消息刺激，昨晚美股锂矿板块全线大涨：SigmaLithium盘中一度暴涨超33%，全球锂业龙 头美国雅保盘中大涨超10%，市场对锂价上行与供给格局重构的预期快速升温。 相关产品： 新能源ETF基金（516850）及其联接基金（017571/017572）聚焦新能源赛道，重点可再生能源、 新能源应用、储能、新能源设备四大方向，成分股涵盖赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等锂矿龙头，也包含宁德时 代、亿纬锂能等锂电池龙头。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示 ...

证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

市场情绪继续低迷，港股上午盘三大指数呈现高开低走行情，恒生科技指数跌幅较大，午间收跌1.65% 刷新近期调整新低，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌0.39%及1.29%。大型科技股、大金融股(保险、银 行、券商)等权重低迷拖累大市下行，非洲最大锂矿出口国宣布"断供"，锂电池股走势大肆分化，赣锋 锂业、天齐锂业走强，宁德时代、中创新航下挫。另外，机构看好国内内燃机及相关产业链出海，电力 设备股拉升明显，军工股、光通讯概念股部分活跃。(格隆汇) ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 0.41% at 1.221 yuan [1] - The major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 0.66%, and Ganfeng Lithium, which increased by 4.44% [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, with a total return of 142.70% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a one-month return of 1.98% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Chen Jianhua as the fund manager [1] - Other notable stock performances include Luoyang Molybdenum rising by 1.19%, China Aluminum increasing by 1.63%, and Northern Rare Earth decreasing by 0.12% [1] - The article provides a snapshot of the ETF's performance and its key holdings, reflecting the current trends in the nonferrous metals sector [1]

2月26日，隔夜美股三大指数收涨，英伟达财报亮眼，港股三大指数追随亚太股市高开后震荡下挫，截 止午盘，恒生指数跌0.39%报26661.2点，恒生科技指数跌1.65%报5173.65点，国企指数跌1.29%报 8918.15点，红筹指数跌0.6%报4439.45点。 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴跌2.09%，腾讯控股跌0.77%，京东集团跌1.97%，小米集团跌0.17%，网易跌 1.63%，美团跌1.51%，快手跌2.41%，哔哩哔哩跌2.27%；芯片股走弱，华虹半导体跌超5%，上海复旦 跌近3%。大金融股(保险、银行、券商)等权重低迷拖累大市下行，非洲最大锂矿出口国宣布"断供"，锂 电池股走势分化，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业走强，宁德时代、中创新航下挫。另外，机构看好国内内燃机及 相关产业链出海，电力设备股拉升明显，军工股、光通讯概念股部分活跃。 盘面表现：板块涨跌互现 科网股多数走低 科网股整体表现不佳，跌多涨少。快手、阿里巴巴、百度集团等知名科网股纷纷走低，对市场人气形成 一定压制。在科技行业竞争日益激烈的当下，这些企业面临着来自国内外同行的多重挑战，业绩增长压 力凸显，导致股价表现疲软。 锂电池板块先扬后抑 万咖 ...

有色ETF鹏华（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为138.66%，近一个月回报为3.18%。 2月26日，有色ETF鹏华（159880）开盘涨1.30%，报2.416元。有色ETF鹏华（159880）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨0.66%，洛阳钼业涨1.19%，北方稀土跌0.12%，华友钴业涨3.39%，中国铝业涨1.63%，赣 锋锂业涨4.44%，云铝股份涨1.08%，山东黄金涨0.00%，中金黄金跌0.60%，天齐锂业涨5.91%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the non-ferrous sector showing mixed performance, particularly influenced by recent geopolitical tensions and policy changes affecting lithium exports from Zimbabwe [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 26, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index retreat, with the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) down by 0.74% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF's key components showed varied performance, with small metals and lithium stocks leading gains, while major players like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum experienced pullbacks [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Market Impact - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate ban on all lithium ore and concentrate exports, significantly impacting global lithium supply dynamics [5][6]. - This ban is expected to drive lithium prices up, as Zimbabwe accounted for approximately 12% of global lithium production in 2026, with China being a primary importer [6][7]. Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw price increases due to heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations, with Morgan Stanley projecting gold prices to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3]. - The recent rise in lithium stocks in the U.S. market reflects the immediate market reaction to Zimbabwe's export ban, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 4% [3][5]. Group 4: Strategic Metal Policies - The trend of resource nationalism is likely to continue, with countries implementing stricter export controls on strategic metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which may lead to further supply disruptions [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent policy changes in Zimbabwe are part of a broader strategy to enhance local processing capabilities and retain more value from mineral resources [5][6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is viewed as having significant investment potential, driven by macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and emerging demand from new industries such as AI and renewable energy [8][10]. - The Huatai-PineBridge non-ferrous ETF is highlighted for its comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, making it a favorable investment vehicle [10][12].

新能源车ETF（515030）是目前市场上规模最大的新能源车主题ETF，与其联接基金（013013/013014） 跟踪中证新能源汽车指数（399976），选取涉及锂电池、充电桩、新能源整车等业务的上市公司股票作 为成份股，锂电池概念权重占比高达79.98%，前十大重仓股中涵盖了宁德时代（300750）、华友钴业 （603799）、亿纬锂能（300014）、赣锋锂业（002460）、中矿资源（002738）等行业龙头。助力投资 者一键布局。 中信证券表示，2025年中国19%的进口锂精矿来自津巴布韦，预计2026年津巴布韦锂资源产量占全球 12%，该国的锂矿出口禁令将导致中国碳酸锂短期供应愈发紧缺，有望推动锂价大幅上涨。 2月25日下午，多家国际媒体几乎同时放出重磅消息。据Reuters报道，津巴布韦政府宣布立即暂停所有 原材料及锂精矿出口，包括正在运输途中的货物。未来仅持有效采矿权及获批选矿厂的企业具备出口资 格，禁止代理及第三方贸易商出口。申请时需提交省级矿业办关于选矿能力及合规的建议信，并申报矿 物成分。违规者（如续用过期待办）将吊销出口许可乃至采矿权。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium carbonate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The ban on lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe is expected to significantly disrupt global lithium supply in the short term, leading to a strong price performance for lithium [2]. - The report highlights that the tightening supply and continuous inventory depletion in the lithium carbonate market will contribute to a strong price fluctuation [4]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Yahua Group [4]. Summary by Sections - **Supply Dynamics**: Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports, which is anticipated to tighten the supply side significantly. In 2025, China is expected to import 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a lithium carbonate production of 148,800 tons [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The report notes that from late January to February 2026, lithium carbonate inventory has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with an accelerating depletion rate. The demand recovery post-Chinese New Year is expected to maintain this trend, leading to a strong price outlook for lithium carbonate [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow rapidly in 2026, driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors. The supply side remains constrained due to previous disruptions in key mining areas and changes in overseas supply [4].