1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The European line shipping market has certain support, with a good loading rate but a marginal weakening of cargo volume. The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cargo volumes in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 are 343,000, 305,000, 320,000, and 305,000 TEU respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures - **Futures Contracts Price and Changes**: The closing prices, price changes (%), basis, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of different EC futures contracts (EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606) are presented. For example, EC2508 closed at 2244.9 with a 0.23% increase, and its open interest decreased by 1355 [2]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months (EC2508 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602) are given, along with their changes compared to the previous days and week - on - week changes. For instance, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 661.0, a decrease of 41.7 from the previous day and an increase of 8.1 week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Spot - **Spot Price Indexes**: The values, update frequencies, release dates, and changes of several spot price indexes (SCEIS, SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI) are provided. For example, SCEIS on July 21, 2025, was 2400.5 points, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period but a 7.26% increase from two periods ago [2]. - **European Line Supply - Demand and Quotes**: In August, the weekly average capacity of the European line is 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. Cargo volumes in weeks 32 - 35 are 343,000, 305,000, 320,000, and 305,000 TEU respectively. In July, the quotes remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, some shipping companies announced price increases, while MSK had price adjustments. Currently, the actual quotes of PA Alliance decreased by 200 - 300 to 3100 US dollars, and some of MSK's routes had price increases [2]. 3.3 News - **International News**: On July 24, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would not yield to Hamas in the cease - fire negotiations. On July 25, French President Macron announced that France would recognize the State of Palestine in September [2]. 3.4 Shipping Company Quotes - **Online Quotes Structure**: The online quotes structures (40GP and converted to the underlying) of shipping companies (EMC, HMM, HPL, MSK, MSC, ONE, OOCL) from July 4 to July 24 are presented [3][4]. 3.5 Seasonal Trends - **European Line Spot Freight Rate Indexes**: The seasonal trends of SCFIS, SCFI, TCI, NCFI, XSI - C (European line) and other shipping routes' TCI (including Mediterranean East, Mediterranean West, East Africa, Persian Gulf, South Africa, West Africa, etc.) are shown [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot freight rate has likely appeared, with the offline price of ONE adjusted down to $3108/FEU [1][4]. - The August contract is experiencing high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely emerged. The 08 contract's delivery settlement price may fall around 2200 points [4]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation during the off - season, and subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate, with expected high volatility [5]. - The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6][7]. - In 2025, it is still a major year for container ship deliveries [8]. - For trading strategies, the main contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 80,317 lots, and the daily trading volume was 74,208 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1477.30, 1324.00, 1468.80, 2239.70, 1537.00, and 1701.80 respectively [7]. II. Spot Price - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 31 was 1907/3214, and in week 32 it was 1780/2980. In the second half of July, the offline price of the PA alliance was between $3100 - 3300/FEU, and that of the OA alliance was between $3200 - 3500/FEU [2][4]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From January to July 20, 2025, 151 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU. Among them, 47 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, totaling 705,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, totaling 159,880 TEU [8]. - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining two weeks of July was 272,000 TEU. In August, the average weekly capacity was 310,500 TEU, and in September it was 276,400 TEU. Maersk will add two additional ships in August, with a total capacity of about 29,000 TEU [3]. IV. Supply Chain - The situation of container ship passage through major canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is presented in the figures, which can reflect the impact on the supply chain [66][68][74]. - The congestion ratio and congested capacity of global container ships are also shown in the figures, which are important factors affecting the supply chain [57]. V. Demand and European Economy - Figures such as the EU 27's industrial production index, import value from China, consumer confidence index, and retail sales year - on - year can reflect the demand and economic situation in Europe [39][40][41]. - China's export volume to the EU and total export volume can also provide insights into the demand side [43][44].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rates in the container shipping industry are currently at a high level and are expected to remain volatile. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level oscillation and game - based delivery situation, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - position allocation, and the 12 - month contract is affected by the potential resumption of the Suez Canal [3][4]. - The strategies include the main contract oscillating, an arbitrage strategy of going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price in the 31st week is 1855/3110, and HPL's 8 - month first - half - month shipping schedule quote is 2235/3535 [1]. - Geopolitically, there has been "significant progress" in the Gaza cease - fire negotiations. The weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance. Maersk will add two additional ships in August [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is in high - level oscillation. The estimated average freight rate in the first half of August is about $3200/FEU. The final settlement price of the 08 contract may be around 2200 points [3]. - **10 - month contract**: It is a off - season contract, mainly for short - position allocation. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's pricing strategy will change due to the addition of two ships in August [4]. - **12 - month contract**: The regular pattern of peak and off - season still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 17, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures is 84,091 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 80,457 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1485.70 and EC2508 at 2164.50 [5]. - On July 11, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is $2099/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is $2194/TEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is $4172/FEU. On July 14, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1266.59 points [5][6]. 4. Container Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries. As of July 11, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU. Among them, 46 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have a total capacity of 689,300 TEU, and 7 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have a total capacity of 159,880 TEU [6]. 5. Strategies and Risks - **Strategies**: The main contract oscillates. The arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract when the price is high [7]. - **Risks**: Downward risks include an unexpected decline in the European and American economies, a sharp drop in oil prices, unexpected ship deliveries, insufficient ship idling, and a good resolution of the Red Sea crisis. Upward risks include the recovery of the European and American economies, supply chain issues, significant capacity reduction by liner companies, and the continuous fermentation of the Red Sea crisis leading to ship detours [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of the container shipping index has switched from 2508 to 2510. It is recommended to hold a light - short position in the 2510 contract and use low - long positions in the 2512 and 02 contracts for protection [10][13]. - The SCFIS index on July 14 was better than expected, which may drive the 2508 contract to have a subsidy - water space of 50 - 100 points [10]. - The spot freight rate is expected to decline gradually, with the decline rate accelerating in late August. Different scenarios are considered for the valuation of the 2508 contract, and the 2510 contract should be shorted in the long - term due to the traditional off - season [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: The 2510 contract increased its positions by 3971 lots, closing at 1440.7 points with a 4% increase; the 2508 contract decreased its positions by 1009 lots, closing at 2027.2 points with a 0.53% increase [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 14, the SCFIS European route index was 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. The SCFIS US - West route index was 1266.59 points, a week - on - week decrease of 18.7%. The SCFI European route index was 2099 $/TEU, a bi - weekly decrease of 0.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index was 2194 $/FEU, a bi - weekly increase of 5% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In late July, MSC and Yang Ming reduced prices, the Gemini Alliance slightly increased prices, and the OA and PA Alliances (ONE and HMM) kept their rates unchanged. The market freight rate center was stable at around 3350 $/FEU [11]. - **Shipping Capacity**: The weekly average shipping capacity in July was 301,000 TEU/week, and it was revised down to 335,000 TEU in week 31. The weekly average shipping capacity in August was 315,000 TEU/week, and there were 2 empty sailings and 8 pending voyages in September. The loading of the Gemini and OA Alliances in late July was relatively optimistic, while MSC faced increased cargo - collecting pressure [12]. 3.2 Macro News - Trump plans to manufacture top - level weapons for NATO, and NATO may supply weapons to other countries. NATO Secretary - General Rutte said that European countries are "stepping up" in weapons supply [9]. - Israel submitted its third version of the plan for the Israeli army to withdraw from Gaza. The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $84 billion worth of US goods if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European route) is 1, indicating a neutral trend [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the container shipping market, especially the Far - East to Europe route. It indicates that the freight rate is oscillating at a high level. The 8 - month contract freight rate is likely to peak and decline, while the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season. The 12 - month contract's price is usually higher than that of the 10 - month contract, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume operation. The strategy suggests that the main contract will oscillate, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract [4][5][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price As of July 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 76,829.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 51,307.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 is 1365.70, EC2604 is 1204.00, EC2506 is 1342.10, EC2508 is 2022.50, EC2510 is 1401.10, and EC2512 is 1556.40 [7]. 3.2 Spot Price On July 4, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2101.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2089.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 4124.00 US dollars/FEU. On July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2258.04 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1557.77 points [7]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU. The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. 3.4 Supply Chain Geopolitical factors affect the shipping supply chain. The Israel - Hamas conflict situation is complex, and the Houthi armed forces' attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue. The passage of ships through important canals such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, and the Panama Canal is also a focus [2]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy The report does not provide specific analysis content on demand and the European economy, only lists relevant data charts such as port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, and EU 27 imports from China [73]. 3.6 Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract oscillates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [8].

Group 1 - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries announced a contract for the construction of 4 container ships with a total value of 834.8 billion KRW (approximately 6.1 million USD) [2] - The ships, each with a capacity of 13,000 TEU, will be built at HD Hyundai's facility in South Korea and are scheduled for delivery by the end of 2028 [2] - This contract marks the third batch of container ship orders for HD Hyundai this year, bringing the total to 10 ships [3] Group 2 - The company has secured new ship orders worth 3.45 billion USD (approximately 24.7 billion RMB) since the second quarter, including various types of vessels [3] - As of now, HD Hyundai has achieved approximately 76.7% of its annual order target of 4.5 billion USD within less than 100 days [4] - The total number of new ship orders received this year has reached 80, amounting to 11.11 billion USD (approximately 79.7 billion RMB), which is about 61.5% of the annual target of 18.05 billion USD [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate for the 8 - month contract has likely appeared, and it is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially whether the PA Alliance will adjust prices [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty lies in the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [5]. - In December, the freight rate of the Far East - Europe route is usually higher than that in October. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation, which may challenge the seasonal pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes of different alliances for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary by shipping company and shipping period. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's price for week 29 is 1785/2990; in the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC's 7 - month upper - half - month shipping period quote is 2180/3640 [1]. II. Geopolitical Situation - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a joint military operation on the 7th, using missiles and drones to attack important targets in Israel in response to the Israeli army's attacks on Yemeni ports and power stations [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3]. IV. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is likely to peak and decline. The top of the freight rate has probably emerged, and the current market average price in the first half of July is around $3300/FEU. The settlement price of the 8 - month contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **10 - month contract**: It is an off - season contract mainly for short - allocation. The focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation before October [5]. - **12 - month contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. V. Shipping Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 8, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 80,726.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 30,740.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1323.90 and EC2508 at 1888.50 [7]. - On July 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2101.00/TEU, and on July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points [7]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU [8]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate has likely reached its peak as Maersk and MSC have kept their freight rates unchanged in the second half of July. The EC2510 contract can be sold for hedging at high prices during the freight rate decline [4][5]. - The supply of the US - bound routes has rapidly recovered, and the freight rates from Shanghai to the East and West coasts of the US have dropped from their highs. The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe route are still uncertain as to when they will peak, and the settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of July 4, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 83,240 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 39,157 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1338.70, 1172.90, 1319.90, 1896.90, 1363.90, and 1538.70 respectively [6]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Maersk's price for the 29th week from Shanghai to Rotterdam is 1785/2990. The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) price announced on June 27th was 2030.00 US dollars/TEU, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on July 1st was 2123.24 points [1][6]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. The weekly average capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July was 261,900 TEU, and in August it was 269,900 TEU. There were 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3][7]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events in Israel may affect the shipping market. The supply and demand of the US - bound routes have both increased, and the capacity has been rapidly restored. The congestion situation of container ships globally and the passage of ships through major canals such as the Suez, Panama, and around the Cape of Good Hope are also factors affecting the supply chain [2]. V. Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly after the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The industrial production index, import and export data, consumer confidence index, and retail sales data of the EU 27 countries are important factors affecting the demand for shipping [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate has likely been reached, as Maersk's freight rate for the first week of the second half of July remained unchanged, and MSC's freight rate for the second half of July also remained the same as the first half. It is necessary to monitor the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially the PA Alliance [4]. - During the off - season, the EC2510 contract can be sold on rallies for hedging when the freight rate is falling [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Different shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam price in week 29 is 1780/2980; HPL's quotes vary for different shipping periods. MSC + Premier Alliance and Ocean Alliance also have their own price quotes [1]. - **US Routes**: Earlier, the supply and demand of the US routes both increased, and the supply recovered rapidly. The freight rates on the US East and West routes have fallen from their highs. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in June was 350,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, 359,000 TEU in July, and 299,000 TEU in August. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in week 29 is 1456/1820 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price in week 28 is 3625 dollars/FEU (compared to 6410 dollars/FEU in the first half of June) [2]. II. Geopolitical Impact - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli air strikes in Gaza, the situation of the cease - fire agreement draft, and the US and Iran's statements may have an impact on the shipping market, but the specific impact is not elaborated in detail [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - **European Routes**: The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base ports was 261,900 TEU in July and 269,900 TEU in August. There were 8 blank sailings in July (5 by the OA Alliance and 3 by the MSC/PA Alliance) and 2 in August (both by the OA Alliance). The decrease in capacity in July was mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route from week 28 to week 31, with a reduction of about 15,000 TEU of allocated shipping capacity [3]. IV. Freight Rate Analysis - **European Routes**: The freight rate top has likely emerged. Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rate generally peaked around week 34. In 2024, it peaked in mid - July, and there is a strong game between the August contract expectations and reality. The delivery settlement price of the EC2508 contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11th, 18th, and 25th [4]. V. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of July 3, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 83,654 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,574 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1325.20, EC2604 at 1174.20, EC2506 at 1310.00, EC2508 at 1883.50, EC2510 at 1367.90, and EC2512 at 1528.00 [5][6]. - **Spot Prices**: On June 27th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 2030 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2578 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 4717 dollars/FEU. On July 1st, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2123.24 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1619.19 points [6]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship delivery. As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU, and 6 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU [7]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract [7].

集运指数（欧线）：08 震荡整理；10 空单轻仓持 有 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2508 1,883.5 1.67% 44,193 36,335 -4,141 1.22 1.70 EC2510 1,367.9 -0.07% 14,562 31,302 -204 0.47 0.69 EC2512 1,528.0 0.10% 2,984 6,171 -15 0.48 0.56 单位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 39 2980 1780 MSC 46 3640 2180 OOCL 37 3500 2100 EMC 37 3660 2405 CMA 37 3445 1935 ONE 47 3343 ...