Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 606.90 HKD, reflecting a potential upside from the current closing price of 576.00 HKD [5][3][20]. Core Insights - Ctrip's Q2 2025 performance is strong, with net operating revenue reaching 14.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and net profit of 4.9 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year. The growth is driven by robust travel demand, particularly during holiday periods [1][9]. - The international business segment shows significant growth, with total bookings on the international OTA platform increasing by over 60% year-on-year, driven by the Asia-Pacific region and mobile bookings, which now account for 70% of total bookings [1][17]. - The report highlights the increasing participation and purchasing power of the silver-haired demographic through the "Old Friends Club," which saw user numbers and GMV grow over 100% since the end of 2024 [2][19]. Summary by Sections International Business Growth - Ctrip's international OTA platform has shown strong growth, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling year-on-year, primarily driven by demand from South Korea and Southeast Asia [1][17]. - Domestic travelers' enthusiasm for outbound travel continues to recover, with bookings for hotels and flights exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019 [1][17]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenues of 61.82 billion RMB for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.0%, and net profit of 17.71 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [3][20]. - Ctrip's domestic business remains strong, while international operations are expected to contribute additional growth, making it a valuable long-term investment [3][20]. - The expected PE ratios for 2025-2027 are 21.4X, 18.6X, and 15.9X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][20].

Core Insights - Ctrip has announced a new hybrid work policy that will eliminate the need for direct supervisor approval for remote work applications starting September 1, 2025 [1] - The pilot program will apply to all full-time technical (T-series) and product technical (PT-series) employees in China [1] - This change is seen as a significant move towards building a culture of trust and employee autonomy within the company [1] Summary by Sections - **Policy Change**: Ctrip will allow eligible employees to submit remote work applications without supervisor approval, with notifications sent to supervisors instead [1] - **Participation and Impact**: Since the introduction of the hybrid work policy in 2022, 70% of employees have participated, resulting in approximately 640,000 remote work instances [1] - **Cultural Shift**: The primary goal of this policy adjustment is to enhance work-life balance (WLB) and foster a culture based on trust and self-motivation among employees [1]

Core Points - The company has implemented a new policy allowing employees in the product and research departments to work from home without needing approval from direct supervisors, effective from September 1, 2025 [1] - This adjustment aims to enhance work-life balance (WLB) and foster a culture of trust and self-motivation among employees [1] - Since the introduction of the hybrid work policy in 2022, approximately 70% of employees have participated, with around 640,000 instances of remote work recorded [1] Summary by Categories Policy Changes - The new policy eliminates the requirement for direct supervisor approval for remote work applications, allowing for automatic approval upon submission [1] - The pilot program will specifically target domestic employees who have completed their probationary period in the T and PT series [1] Employee Engagement - The company has seen a significant uptake in hybrid working arrangements, with 70% employee participation since the policy's launch [1] - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to improve employee satisfaction and productivity by promoting a better balance between work and personal life [1]

Core Insights - The rise of "no-password payment" systems has led to increased convenience for consumers but also significant issues, including unauthorized transactions and impulsive spending [2][3][5] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Consumers using "no-password payment" have seen an average increase of 18% in single transaction amounts, with a 40% rise in return rates, indicating a tendency towards impulsive purchasing decisions [2] - Complaints regarding "no-password payment" have reached 65,000 on a complaint platform, highlighting widespread consumer dissatisfaction [2] Group 2: Regulatory and Legal Concerns - Some platforms exploit loopholes in third-party payment systems, allowing for high-frequency small transactions that evade monitoring, leading to significant financial losses for consumers [3] - Legal experts argue that default settings for "no-password payment" options violate consumer protection laws, suggesting that platforms should provide clear options to disable such features and improve transparency [5] Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - Payment platforms are advised to create easily accessible options for disabling "no-password payment" and to regularly remind users of their payment settings [5] - Regulatory bodies are encouraged to enhance oversight of "no-password payment" systems, as current laws do not specifically address this payment method [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported stable revenue growth and improved profit margins in Q2 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's expectations, driven by strong execution and increased overseas investments [1][4]. Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and outbound travel businesses continue to gain market share, with Q2 accommodation booking revenue at 62.3 billion yuan, up 21.2%, and transportation ticketing revenue at 54.0 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - Estimated Q2 domestic revenue growth exceeded 10%, with hotel night growth maintaining over 15%, while outbound revenue also grew over 10%, with hotel and flight bookings recovering significantly [2]. - International platform revenue is expected to grow over 30%, with Trip.com seeing over 60% growth in hotel and flight bookings [2]. Profitability Breakdown - The international platform is still in an investment phase, impacting profit margins, while domestic operations are optimizing profitability [3]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D and management expenses rising by 18.3% [3]. - The company has repurchased 4 billion USD worth of shares and announced a new 50 billion USD buyback plan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [3].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved net operating revenue of 14.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16%, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 5 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, which was better than Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The company has repurchased approximately 7 million American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) for a total consideration of about 400 million USD under the stock repurchase plan authorized in February 2025 [1] Group 2: Domestic Tourism Market - The domestic accommodation booking revenue grew by 21% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong travel demand, particularly during holidays [2] - The supply of hotel rooms during the summer increased by a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with hotel prices stabilizing and the year-on-year decline in prices narrowing to a mid-low single-digit range [2] - The number of inbound tourists in H1 increased by approximately 30% year-on-year, with a more than 100% year-on-year growth in inbound travel bookings on the company's platform [2] Group 3: International Business Growth - In Q2, cross-border flight capacity recovered to 84% of pre-pandemic levels, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019, outperforming the market by 30-40 percentage points [3] - The company's international business saw a total booking volume growth of over 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region remaining a key operational focus [3] - The company’s non-GAAP sales expense ratio was 22%, remaining stable year-on-year, indicating better-than-expected customer acquisition efficiency [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company’s performance exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment in the forecast for adjusted net profit for 2025-2027 from 17.6/19.7/22 billion yuan to 18.3/20/22 billion yuan [3] - The corresponding adjusted PE ratios are projected to be 20/19/17 times, with a continued positive outlook on the company's overseas business growth [3]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-09-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250901：补贴与竞争：哪些地区和行业内卷更严重？— —统一大市场系列研究之一 土地补贴和财税补贴是地方政府间横向竞争的工具。我们尝试量化产业 政策中土地和财税补贴的规模，并识别哪些地区和行业的税负率更低。土 地补贴方面，按照价差计算，2017-2024 年 70 城工业部门获得的土地补 贴年均 1.45 万亿，占全国 GDP 的 1.3%左右；财税补贴方面，按照与法 定税率的差距来算，2023 年制造业的企业所得税税收优惠约 7300 亿，占 GDP 的 0.56%。结合地区和行业来看，可以识别内卷程度，汽车制造业、 电气机械、电子设备等行业大多是中西部省份内卷更严重，存在利润率和 税负率双低的情况，具体见 2.2.4。近年来，面临房地产市场下行、"反内 卷"规范地方政府补贴、消费税改革等三大变革，传统的横向竞争模式正 在迎来转变，地方政府将从"逐底竞争"转向"逐顶竞争"。 风险提示： （1）房地产和土地市场变化，对地方政府行为影响较大，如果未来房地 产市场出现趋 ...

Event Overview - The 2025 Service Trade Fair will be held from September 10 to September 14 at Shougang Park in Beijing, featuring 13 thematic forums, over 80 specialized forums, and more than 70 negotiation and promotion sessions [1] - Nearly 2,000 companies are expected to participate, including around 500 Fortune Global 500 and leading international enterprises, covering 27 of the top 30 countries and regions in service trade [1] - The theme for this year's fair is "Digital Intelligence Leading, Service Trade Renewed," focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence, healthcare, smart logistics, and the integration of business, travel, culture, and sports [1] Product Launches and Innovations - Over 100 companies, including Alibaba and Schneider, are set to unveil more than 100 new products and achievements at the fair, including the world's first 3D-printed polymer fatigue-resistant absorbable vascular stent and the first 8K ultra-high-definition second-site distribution platform [1] - Other notable innovations include a professional optical quantum computer that surpasses the kilobit scale and service demonstration cases in artificial intelligence and green innovation [1] Tourism and Technology Services - Leading travel companies such as Spring Airlines, China Travel Service, and Ctrip will focus on inbound and outbound tourism products and customized travel services [2] - Technological innovations in the tourism sector will include handheld instant translation devices and AI-powered cultural products [2] - A range of heavy-lift drones will be showcased, demonstrating capabilities for logistics transportation across various scenarios [2] Policy Support and Development - The Ministry of Commerce will release the "China Service Trade Development Report" and a policy guide for developing countries at the fair [3] - Upcoming policies will enhance support for service exports through financial, tax, and facilitation measures, including optimizing tax refund processes and increasing export credit insurance support [3] - The government aims to leverage service trade intermediary organizations to assist companies in expanding into international markets [3] Historical Performance - The 2021 Service Trade Fair saw significant stock performance, with Tian Tan Biology's stock price surging 22% following the announcement of the world's first COVID-19 "special drug" [4] Participating Companies - Several listed companies have confirmed their participation, including Tongrentang, Mindray Medical, and Unisound in the health services sector, and BOE Technology Group in telecommunications and information services [6]

Core Insights - The summer travel season in 2025 shows significant growth in both civil aviation and railway transportation, indicating a strong recovery in travel demand [1] - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to further boost travel plans, with increased interest in outbound travel and staggered travel options [1] Group 1: Civil Aviation and Travel Trends - The number of first-time air travelers is projected to reach approximately 6 million during the summer, primarily consisting of children, students, and seniors, marking a significant upgrade in travel consumption [2] - Popular summer travel destinations such as Guizhou and Yunnan have seen tourism orders increase by over 80%, while lesser-known destinations like Chifeng and Dandong have experienced a 200% increase in orders [2] - High-quality accommodation options are driving an upgrade in travel spending, with bookings for mid-to-high-end hotels increasing by over 40% compared to budget hotels [2] Group 2: International Travel Growth - The international aviation market is expanding rapidly, with the number of countries served increasing to 80 and an estimated 123,000 international flights scheduled [3] - Popular outbound destinations include East Asia and Southeast Asia, with flight volumes to countries like the Maldives and Switzerland increasing by over 50% [3] - The influx of foreign tourists, particularly families, is notable, with a significant increase in bookings for museum tickets by foreign visitors, up nearly 20% [3] Group 3: Upcoming Holiday Travel Plans - There is a noticeable trend of early planning for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with many travelers opting for domestic long-distance trips [4] - The demand for outbound travel is also rising, with a nearly 30% increase in visa service bookings for the upcoming holiday [5] - Data indicates that travelers are becoming more strategic with their travel plans, with a significant increase in bookings for return flights after the holiday period [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group-S (09961) reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to rise [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Ctrip's hotel business growth exceeded expectations, indicating strong operational performance [1] - The company is in a favorable position within the competitive landscape of the domestic market [1] Group 2: Market Strategy - The trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue [1] - The impact of overseas market investments on overall company profits is manageable [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The valuation for Ctrip has been extended to 2026, with a target price increase from HKD 591 to HKD 653 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] - The recommendation for Ctrip remains "Buy" [1]