2025 年 12 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 | 生猪：现货弱势显现 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11780 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12100 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12160 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11150 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11325 | | 0 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11925 | | 45 | | | | | 单 ...

Q&A 2026 年生猪养殖行业的前景如何？ 2026 年，生猪养殖行业将面临一系列挑战和机遇。首先，从供应端来看，目 前生猪供应量较大，出栏均重也在增加。这主要是由于去年四季度以来仔猪盈 利状况良好，母猪补栏和配种率积极。同时，非洲猪瘟的影响有所减弱，生产 效率提升显著。例如，有公司从 2021 年的每头母猪产子数 11 个提升到现在 的 13 个以上，PSY（每头母猪年提供断奶仔猪数）从去年的 28.3 提高到今年 的 29.3%。 然而，由于过剩供给问题严重，加之消费需求疲软，即便在腌腊 旺季期间，整体供需失衡依然存在。预计今年四季度生猪价格仍将低迷，在 12 元以下震荡，而全行业平均成本接近 13 元，这意味着目前全行业处于亏损状 态，每头生猪亏损约 300 元。 展望明年上半年，由于消费断档式下滑可能导致 更深层次的价格下跌，不排除部分时间点价格跌至 10 元甚至以下。这将进一 饲料原料价格（豆粕和玉米）虽受天气因素影响中枢或抬升，但全球产 量丰收限制涨幅，对行业成本影响有限，疫病控制和生产效率提升是关 键。 疫病程度介于 2023 年和 2024 年之间，主要集中在散户，集团厂防疫 情况需重点关注 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 商 品 研 究 生猪：冬至需求高峰已至 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11880 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12150 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11220 | | -155 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges in China's pig farming industry, highlighting the prolonged downturn in pig prices and the impact of the pig cycle on the market dynamics [3][4][11]. Group 1: Pig Price Trends - Since April 2022, the current pig cycle has been marked by a prolonged low point, with the average purchase price of live pigs dropping to 13.11 yuan per kilogram by late November 2025, reflecting a 0.9% decrease month-on-month and a 27% decrease year-on-year [4][9]. - The lack of seasonal demand during the year-end peak indicates a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the market [4]. Group 2: Industry Responses - Major pig farming companies like Tian Kang Biological, Shennong Group, and others have halted their pig farming projects, while leading firms such as Muyuan, Wens, and others have also suspended multiple projects due to cash flow pressures [5][6]. - The overall asset-liability ratio of listed pig companies has increased, indicating heightened financial stress within the industry [6]. Group 3: Smallholder Challenges - Traditional small-scale pig farmers face dire circumstances due to their limited purchasing power for feed and veterinary supplies, resulting in higher production costs compared to large-scale operations [7]. - The cost of raising pigs for smallholders has significantly increased, with a notable difference in costs compared to large-scale farmers, leading to greater financial losses during the current price downturn [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The number of breeding sows in China has remained above the normal level of 39 million, with recent figures showing around 40.4 million, contributing to the oversupply in the market [8][9]. - The prolonged low prices are attributed to the high number of breeding sows and the inability of the market to absorb the excess supply, exacerbated by competition from alternative proteins like chicken and beef [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The current pig cycle is seen as a potential turning point, not in terms of price recovery, but in the structural changes within the pig farming industry due to increased scale and consolidation [15]. - Companies are shifting from merely raising pigs to integrating downstream operations such as slaughtering and meat processing to mitigate cyclical risks and enhance profitability [17][18].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The agricultural sector has shown a slight increase above the CSI 300 index from the beginning of the year to mid-November 2025, ranking 13th among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification, an improvement from 2024 [2][20] - The performance of sub-industries is mixed, with animal health and agricultural product processing performing well, while breeding, feed, and planting lag behind [1][3] Key Investment Focus for 2026 - The primary investment focus remains on the pig farming and pet food sectors. The pig farming sector's opportunities arise from changes in production capacity affecting pig price expectations, while the pet food sector benefits from growing market demand and increased market share [1][5] - The expected average price for pigs in 2026 is projected to decline to 13.5 yuan per kilogram due to increased supply pressure and potential fluctuations in prices during January and February [1][7][10] Sub-Industry Performance Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector experienced a low-level rebound followed by a plateau in 2025, with an overall index increase of approximately 14.4%. Most listed pig companies turned profitable from Q2 2024 and maintained profitability in Q3 2025, although some may incur losses in Q4 [6] - The market share of listed pig companies reached 26.8%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The forecast for 2026 indicates an annual pig output increase, with the breeding sow capacity expected to decrease by 430,000 heads [6][7] Pet Food Sector - The pet food sector is experiencing a transition towards emotional and anthropomorphic pet ownership, with the market size in China reaching 300 billion yuan, where pet food accounts for 53% [3][11][13] - The growth of domestic mid-to-high-end brands is outpacing that of imported brands, driven by rational consumption [3][13] - The online sales channel for pet food has grown significantly, with projections indicating it will reach 72% market share by 2026 [15] Market Dynamics and Trends - The pet food market is characterized by low concentration, with the top five companies holding only 25.4% market share, indicating significant room for growth for domestic brands [14] - The online sales of domestic brands have increased, with brands like Mai Fu Di showing substantial growth in market share [17] - The export growth of pet food remains a critical performance driver, despite challenges from tariffs [8][11][12] Future Outlook - The agricultural sector is expected to enter a plateau phase after a period of low-level fluctuations, with valuations still at historical lows [20] - The pig farming sector will focus on balancing risks and opportunities, while the pet food sector will need to wait for performance growth to capture new investment opportunities [20]

文｜红餐网 2020年，20元/斤的猪肉令人咋舌，但到了2025年，一斤猪肉想卖到10块钱以上都很难。 今年以来，天康生物、神农集团、天邦食品已先后表示中止养猪项目，邦基科技终止了筹划中的重大资 产重组事项。而在此之前，牧原、温氏、唐人神、金新农、东瑞股份等也已宣布终止多个生猪养殖项 目。 2025年第三季度财报数据则显示，上市猪企的整体资产负债率出现回升，行业现金流压力加剧。包括牧 原、温氏、新希望六和、天邦食品等头部猪企纷纷通过降低出栏均重、禁止商品猪流入二次育肥环节、 关停猪场等方式调整产能。 相比这些养猪规模企业，传统中小养猪户的生存处境更不容乐观。由于采购体量小，散户在饲料、疫 苗、兽药等投入方面缺乏议价权，导致养殖成本更高。 湛江科技学院生猪产业研究所曾统计，2010年养一头111公斤左右的生猪，散户需要花费1250元，大规 模养殖户的成本为1164元，相差64元。到了2021年，散户的生猪出栏重量是126公斤，成本为2709元， 大规模养殖户的生猪长到了129公斤，成本却只需要2387元，每斤成本比散户低了近14%。 几年里，猪肉价格好比坐上了过山车。几倍的价差背后，其实都是猪周期在作祟。 自2 ...

2025 年 12 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | | --- | | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | 0 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 12050 | | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12360 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 11390 | | -10 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 45 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11930 | | ...

2025 年第六次临时股东会 会议资料 股票代码：605296 股票简称：神农集团 中国 昆明 Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group Co.,LTD. 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 二〇二五年十二月 1 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司 2025 年第六次临时股东会会议资料目录 | 会议须知 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 会议议程 | 5 | | 关于取消监事会暨修改《公司章程》并办理工商变更登记的议案 | 7 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司股东会议事规则》的议案 | 21 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司董事会议事规则》的议案 | 25 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司独立董事工作制度》的议案 | 27 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司关联交易管理办法》的议案 | 30 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限公司对外担保管理办法》的议案 | 34 | | 关于修订《云南神农农业产业集团股份有限 ...

Overview - The report emphasizes the need to focus on leading companies in the agricultural sector amidst a challenging market environment, highlighting potential investment opportunities in key areas such as food security and livestock production [2][8]. Group 1: Swine Farming - The report indicates that the reduction in breeding sow inventory has begun, with a notable decline to 39.9 million heads as of October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decrease and a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [20]. - The average price of live pigs was reported at 12.33 yuan/kg in November 2025, down 25.6% from the beginning of the year, indicating significant price pressure in the market [27]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others, as they are expected to have stronger resilience and market share growth in a low-margin environment [11][20]. Group 2: Natural Rubber - The report discusses the slow contraction of supply in the natural rubber market, with production challenges due to climate change and labor cost increases, which are expected to impact future supply dynamics [49][55]. - It highlights that the current natural rubber prices are in a new bottoming phase, influenced by both supply constraints and weak demand from the tire and automotive sectors [59]. - The report recommends Hainan Rubber as a key player, noting its strategic land resource management and potential for growth in a recovering market [60][66]. Group 3: Sugar and Tomato Industries - The sugar industry is projected to see a production increase to 11.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 4.8% rise year-on-year, driven by improved pricing for sugarcane [77]. - The report notes that the import of non-standard sugar sources has decreased significantly, which has positively impacted profit margins for domestic sugar producers [77]. - The tomato industry is undergoing accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on improving efficiency and profitability in the face of market challenges [68].