存储供需错配仍将延续，产业链公司持续受益 ——存储巨 头与台股 2025 年 2026 年 1 月经营总结 20260223 摘要 存储产品价格自 2025 年以来显著上涨，DRAM 价格涨幅达三倍。尽管 涨势趋稳，但市场寡头垄断格局预示未来价格将维持高位，难以回落至 历史低点，对模组厂成本控制构成挑战。 存储巨头扩产面临物理性能瓶颈，HBM 后端验证周期长达一年半，洁净 室空间不足亦构成制约。从建厂到量产需两到三年，限制了短期内高端 产品供给的爆发性增长。 预计 2026 年 DRAM 和 NAND 供需缺口将达峰值，分别为负 4.9%和负 4.2%，主要受 AI 需求和 CSP 厂商资本支出驱动。2027 年底，中国厂 商扩产有望缓解供需紧张，2028 年供给状况或将改善。 台企受益于 AI 需求和存储市场结构调整，业绩显著增长。南亚科收入连 续五个月增长，同比增幅达 608%；华邦电营收创新高并计划扩产 NAND Flash；威刚 1 月营收同比增长 200%。 2025 年存储行业整体营收同比增长 8.09%，达 145.76 亿新台币。三 大巨头削减产能，供应链呈现多点开花局面。QLC 在服务器中应 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The evolution path of large models in the AI industry is becoming clearer, with a potential supply-demand imbalance in computing power [2]. - Significant upgrades to major AI models occurred around the Chinese New Year, with both domestic and international companies releasing important model updates, indicating a robust demand for advanced AI capabilities [4]. - The rise in computing power prices suggests a supply bottleneck, which may benefit the computing power supply chain in the long term [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on the following sectors for investment: - Computing and Storage: Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, Muxi Co., Zhaoyi Innovation, Baiwei Storage, Jucheng Co., and Lixin Micro [4]. - Advanced Manufacturing: SMIC, Huahong, Jinghe Integration, China Resources Micro, Chipone, Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics [4]. - Optical Communication: Zhongji Xuchuang, Tianfu Communication, Xinyi Sheng, Changfei Fiber Optics, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optics, Huanyu Electronics, Jietu [4]. - PCB: Shennan Circuit, Huitian Technology, Pengding Holdings, Shenghong Technology [4]. - PCB Materials: Shengyi Technology, Nanya New Materials, Feiliwa, International Composites, China Materials Technology, Honghe Technology [4]. - Thermal Management and Power Supply: Invec, Shenling Environment, Jiewate, Magmi Tech, Oulu Tong [4]. Industry Developments - Major AI model upgrades were noted, including the release of models such as K2.5 by Moon's Dark Side, GLM-5 by Zhipu, and others from ByteDance and Alibaba, showcasing a competitive landscape in AI model development [4]. - The emergence of advanced AI agents and multi-modal applications is expected to drive productivity changes across various sectors, including business, legal, and financial applications [4]. - The report highlights the increasing efficiency of AI-generated content, with improvements in video generation capabilities, indicating a shift towards scalable development in industries like animation and gaming [4].

Core Insights - In 2026, major internet companies are expected to invest over 4 billion yuan to transition AI from laboratory technology to practical applications, marking a critical point for widespread AI adoption [1] - The Chinese open-source models are gaining global traction due to their performance and cost advantages, with several models recently achieving significant milestones [2] - Concerns about AI potentially disrupting the software industry are valid, but the industry is likely to experience a "K-shaped" differentiation, where certain software will be more vulnerable to AI than others [3] Investment Opportunities - The computing power industry is anticipated to present clear investment opportunities amid the new wave of model iterations and accelerated application promotion by major internet companies [4] - Key players in the AI computing power sector include Haiguang Information, Cambricon Technologies, and several others listed, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI applications [4] - In the AI application domain, companies such as Zhaoyi Information and iFLYTEK are highlighted as potential investment targets due to their high barriers to entry and proactive transformation strategies [4]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 金融产品周报 20260207 海外市场流动性有企稳迹象，情绪或会好转 【勘误版】 [Table_Summary] 基金规模统计：（2026.2.2-2026.2.6） 市场行情展望：（2026.2.9-2026.2.13） 基金配置建议： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 《商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被 "错杀"？》 2026-02-04 《黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月 证券分析师 芦哲 展望》 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐遥衎 2026-02-03 执业证书：S0600524120016 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] ◼ 权益类 ETF 基金规模变化统计：规模变化排名前三名的权益类 ETF 类 型分别为：规模指数 ETF（154.06 亿元），跨境行业指数 ETF（66.24 亿 元），策略指数 ETF（53.71 亿元）；基金规模变化排名后三名的权益 类 ETF 类型分别为：跨境规模 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor ETF (159813) opened with a gain of 1.53%, priced at 1.260 yuan [1] - Key holdings in the semiconductor ETF include: - SMIC up 0.94% - Haiguang Information up 3.00% - Cambricon up 1.39% - Northern Huachuang up 1.17% - Zhaoyi Innovation up 2.85% - Zhongwei Company up 1.26% - Lanke Technology up 3.27% - OmniVision up 1.02% - Tuojing Technology up 0.92% - Changdian Technology up 1.67% [1] - The performance benchmark for the semiconductor ETF is the National Securities Semiconductor Chip Index return rate [1] Group 2 - The ETF is managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with the fund manager being Luo Yingyu [1] - Since its establishment on April 17, 2020, the ETF has achieved a return of 86.00%, with a return of 3.62% over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Sci-Tech Chip ETF managed by Huatai-PineBridge, highlighting its recent gains and the performance of its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF Huatai (588750) opened with a gain of 0.95%, priced at 1.800 yuan [1] - Since its establishment on December 18, 2024, the fund has achieved a return of 78.38%, with a monthly return of 5.60% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Key stocks in the ETF include: - SMIC (中芯国际) up by 0.94% - Haiguang Information (海光信息) up by 3.00% - Cambricon (寒武纪) up by 1.39% - Lattice Technology (澜起科技) up by 3.27% - Zhongwei Company (中微公司) up by 1.26% - Tuojing Technology (拓荆科技) up by 0.92% - Chipone (芯原股份) up by 3.45% - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹公司) up by 0.16% - Shanghai Silicon Industry (沪硅产业) up by 1.12% - Dongxin Technology (东芯股份) up by 0.91% [1]

1）豆包：除夕AI互动19亿次，Seedance2．0为春晚提供技术支持；2）豆包App暂停视频通话功能；3）反超千 问、蚂蚁阿福，豆包App Store排名第一；4）2月12日凌晨，智谱发布新一代旗舰模型 GLM-5。 5）Meta加码英伟达，未来数年部署数百万颗芯片，首次采用Grace CPU。 < 国产算力（6）：算力紧缺+主流大模型适配国产芯片印证算力需求旺盛【东北计算机】 1）豆包：除夕AI互动19亿次，Seedance2．0为春晚提供技术支持；2）豆包App暂停视频通话功能；3）反超千 问、蚂蚁阿福，豆包App Store排名第一；4）2月12日凌晨，智谱发布新一代旗舰模型 GLM-5。 国产算力（6）：算力紧缺+主流大模型适配国产芯片印证算力需求旺盛【东北计算机】 5）Meta加码英伟达，未来数年部署数百万颗芯片，首次采用Grace CPU。 #春节流量峰值验证算力瓶颈，国产算力迎来规模化商用拐点。 2026 年春节期间 AI 应用场景的集中爆发，直接凸显出算力资源的供给缺口，国内 AI 产业对算力的刚性需求进一 步释放。 1）字节跳动旗下豆包 App 因新春用户流量大幅攀升出现算力承压，于 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report titled "2026-2032 China CPU Industry Market Status Analysis and Market Trend Forecast" provides essential insights for decision-makers and investors in the CPU sector, highlighting the current market dynamics and future trends [1][11]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The CPU (Central Processing Unit) is the core of computer systems, responsible for executing program instructions and processing data, often referred to as the "brain" of the computer [6]. - The report emphasizes the significance of the CPU industry's technological advancements and market structure, which profoundly impact the global technology sector [8]. - The Chinese CPU market is projected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year by 2026, driven by policy support and technological innovation [8]. Group 2: Data Collection and Analysis Methodology - The research team employed multiple data collection methods, including annual reports from listed companies, manufacturer surveys, and expert validations, to ensure data accuracy and relevance [3]. - The report utilizes a proprietary industry analysis model developed by the research institute, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the current market status, trends, and dynamics [3][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Key players in the Chinese CPU market, such as Feiteng, Haiguang, Longxin, and Zhaoxin, are leveraging proprietary instruction sets or compatible ecosystems to gain market share [9]. - Longxin's 3A6000 processor aims to compete with international mainstream products while adhering to a proprietary instruction set approach [9]. Group 4: Report Structure - The report consists of twelve chapters covering various aspects of the CPU industry, including definitions, business models, risk factors, and market dynamics [12]. - It provides a detailed analysis of the CPU industry's operating environment, including political, economic, social, and technological factors [14]. Group 5: Future Projections - The report forecasts supply and demand, pricing, market size, and strategic recommendations for the CPU industry from 2026 to 2032, offering a scientific and rigorous outlook [12][21]. - It highlights the expected trends in CPU performance, power efficiency, and intelligence, supporting strategic industries like AI, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things [8].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the domestic AI sector and its rapid development, particularly in China, where advancements in model capabilities and computational resources are critical for growth [1] - The call highlights the increasing demand for multi-modal AI and the competitive landscape among major players in the industry [1] Key Points on Domestic AI Development 1. **Model Performance**: The Daily Active Users (DAU) for Doubao doubled during the Spring Festival, indicating strong user engagement. Major companies are beginning to showcase differences in large models as they enter the multi-modal space [1] 2. **Computational Power**: There is an emerging demand for computational resources driven by multi-modal AI. Domestic third-party computational power providers, such as H and Haiguang, are expected to see significant growth. The trend of self-developed GPUs and CPUs among major firms is becoming a certainty, comparable to overseas giants like Google [1] 3. **Storage Sector**: Since August and September of the previous year, there has been a strong bullish sentiment in the storage sector. Many domestic companies have started stockpiling, and the D5 segment is experiencing explosive growth, with the inference ecosystem rapidly expanding [1] Key Points on Overseas Inflation and PCB Industry 1. **PCB Upstream Dynamics**: Since recommending PCB upstream stocks in June of the previous year, the call notes that the sector is characterized by a "winner takes all" scenario. The domestic production breakthrough is crucial, with CCL prices increasing by 30-40%, electronic cloth prices continuing to rise, and copper foil prices increasing by 40-50% since October [1] 2. **Liquid Cooling Technology**: The call emphasizes the growing importance of liquid cooling solutions, with companies like NV and Google adopting these technologies. The market share for domestic products is expected to increase, with potential breakthroughs in core liquid cooling boards and CDU (Cooling Distribution Unit) [1] Additional Insights - The call suggests that the competitive landscape for liquid cooling components, such as liquid cooling boards and CDU, is favorable and warrants attention [1] - The transition in resin materials from PPO to OPE to hydrocarbons is noted as part of the ongoing changes in the PCB supply chain [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the AI infrastructure industry, highlighting the rapid advancements and product launches from major players such as Alibaba, ByteDance, Zhiyu, Kimi, Minimax, and Google during the Spring Festival period [1][1]. - The demand for AI infrastructure is increasing, particularly in the context of new storage architectures due to ongoing storage shortages [1][1]. Key Points and Arguments - **Token Usage Surge**: OpenClaw's token usage increased to approximately 13% of all tokens on OpenRouter within two weeks, indicating a growing interest in this platform [1][1]. - **Storage Shortages**: Hynix reported that all customer demands cannot be met, with DRAM and NAND inventory levels only sufficient for about four weeks [2][2]. - **New Product Launches**: SanDisk is expected to launch new HBF products, while there is a recommendation for new storage GPU-native database directions, particularly highlighting Xinghuan Technology's rapid progress [2][2]. - **Pricing Trends**: Following the release of new models by Zhiyu, there has been a simultaneous increase in GLMCoding Plan and API prices, reflecting the strong demand for computing power [2][2]. - **Rising Rental Prices**: The rental prices for computing power in overseas markets (H, A, B cards) continue to rise, indicating a robust demand for computational resources [2][2]. Additional Important Content - **Domestic Model Success**: Four Chinese models ranked among the top five globally in terms of usage from February 16 to February 22, showcasing China's competitive position in the global AI landscape [3][3]. - **Impact on Domestic Computing Demand**: The success of Chinese large models is expected to drive demand for domestic computing power, with relevant companies including Haiguang Information, Zhongke Shuguang, Cambrian, and others identified as key players [4][4]. - **Risks**: Potential risks include the underdevelopment of AI technology and geopolitical tensions between China and the United States [4][4].