港股航空股继续走低，其中，中国国航跌2.8%，中国南方航空跌2.6%，国泰航空、中国东方航空跌 1.7%，美兰空港跟跌。 消息上，12月5日下午，中国国航、东方航空、南方航空等三大央企航空公司陆续在官网发出公告： 2026年3月28日以及之前出行的涉及日本航线进出港航班，继续执行免费退改政策。按照此前规律，继 三大央企航司之后，其他航司料将很快跟进同样的退改政策。这意味着，涉日本航班免费退改政策直接 延期三个月，直至当前民航冬春航季结束（2025年10月26日-2026年3月28日）。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 ^ | | --- | --- | --- | | 00753 | 中国国航 | 6.260 -2.80% | | 01055 | 中国南方航空股 | 5.220 -2.61% | | 00293 | 国泰航空 | 11.970 -1.72% | | 00670 | 中国东方航空股 | 4.660 -1.69% | | 00357 | 美兰空港 | 10.480 -0.38% | 有分析称，此消息本身对航空股股价的直接影响有限，更多是确认了市场已知的负面预期。但它背后反 映的"需求不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, with mixed changes in ocean freight rates. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) was reported at 2321.90 points on December 4, down 7.9% from November 27. The VLCC market has seen transactions at major loading ports, with shipowners trying to maintain price levels despite a cooling market [3][14] - China Eastern Airlines has launched the world's longest one-way flight route from Shanghai to Buenos Aires, reducing travel time by over 4 hours. Additionally, a ton-class eVTOL was included in urban firefighting drills for the first time [3][16] - In November, China's express delivery volume exceeded 180 billion items for the first time, marking a new record. The first full schedule China-Europe freight train departed from Shijiazhuang [3][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the Middle East route showing a 9.76% drop. The Shanghai port's export rates to Europe and the US have also seen declines of 0.3%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [14][15] - The launch of the longest flight route by China Eastern Airlines connects Shanghai to Buenos Aires, significantly shortening travel time [16][17] - The express delivery volume in China reached a record high of 180 billion items in November, reflecting strong economic vitality [24][26] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 5721.00 points, up 2.4% year-on-year [28] - Domestic freight flight numbers decreased by 2.03% year-on-year in November, while international flights increased by 14.88% [30] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1397.63 points, down 0.39% week-on-week and down 38.06% year-on-year [37] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by hydropower station construction in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [5] - Investment opportunities in low-altitude economy trends, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - Opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and others [5] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Haixia Shares [5] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5] - Opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and others [5]

周期论剑电话会议 顺周期跨年行情推荐 20251207 摘要 预计明年初货币政策可能宽松，金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风 险因子并拓宽券商资本空间，提升市场风险偏好。12 月至 2 月或是政策、 流动性和基本面向上共振的窗口期，建议关注科技成长、大金融和周期 类资产。 预计 2026 年全 A 股非金融业绩增长约 10.6%，股市盈利不再仅依赖传 统周期行业。未上市保险公司将在 2026 年实行新会计准则，预计保险 资金入市增量可能超过万亿，改善流动性环境。 重申航空板块前景乐观，预计 2025 年第四季度行业大幅减亏并全年扭 亏，2026 年需求增长将驱动票价和盈利上行，建议逆向布局航空超级 周期，包括国航、吉祥、东航、南航及春秋航空等公司。 预计第四季度及全年原油轮盈利创十年来新高，中东和南美原油增产效 应显现，印度缩减俄油进口驱动运价飙升。推荐中远海能、招商轮船、 招商南油、中国船舶租赁等公司。 化工板块目前处于底部状态，部分品种开始修复，反内卷政策推动带来 利好。应积极配置具备成本优势且新增产能带动业绩提升的龙头企业， 如煤化工龙头华鲁恒升。关注磷酸铁锂电解液、正丁醇、新醇等品种价 格上涨带来的投 ...

铜、白银新高，周期怎么看？20251207 摘要 航空公司延长中日航线免费退票至 2026 年 3 月，短期冲击有限，需求 转移为主，看好航空公司表现，建议关注南航、东航、国航等港股，以 及华夏、吉祥和春秋。 上海机场免税店招标，日上部分股东反对投标，或引入新运营商，上海 机场收益预计提升。中免若未能全中，或为策略性威胁，总体利好上海 机场。 散货船运价创两年新高，BDI 指数达 2,854 点，受益于西芒杜铁矿投产 及澳洲矿山集中出货。看好散货市场，推荐海通发展、太平洋航运和招 商轮船。 极兔双十一东南亚件量增速达 78%，新市场增速 83%，持续看好。快 递行业反内卷，头部企业市占率上升，中通 10 月、11 月恢复双位数增 长，估值偏低，扩大投资。 2020 年以来大宗商品周期未过半，美元走弱背景下，看好 2026 年牛 市。周期结束取决于美元信用、供应链重建、战略收储及中国反内卷政 策。关注能源革命与大国博弈带来的投资机会。 Q&A 中日航线的调整对航空公司和票价产生了哪些具体影响？ 中日航线占全部市场份额的 3%，其撤班后，许多航空公司将运力转移至国内 航班，这对国内票价产生了一定影响。上周票价从正 ...

交通运输 快递行业增速红利消退，龙头企业有望迎来双击 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 07 年 月 日 周观点：看好快递两条投资主线。反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步向头部快 递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、利润同 步提升，有望迎来双击。出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外电商 GMV 爆 发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.22%，跑赢上证指数 0.86 个百分点（上证指数上涨 0.37%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，涨 幅前三名分别为公路货运、公交、航空运输板块，涨幅分别为 6.90%、 3.04%、2.31%；跌幅前三名分别为仓储物流、跨境物流、快递板块，对 应跌幅分别为-0.86%、-0.42%、-0.10%。 出行：继续看好航空板块中长期景气度。运力供给维持低增速、需求持续 恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策推进，静待票价 持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。持续跟踪需求修复情况，关注公商务出行 需求及国际航班恢复情况。 航运港口：油运，四季度运价维持高位，市场担心旺季结 ...

周末重磅要闻出炉！ 国内财经方面：两部门印发《国家基本医疗保险、生育保险和工伤保险药品目录》以及《商业健康保险 创新药品目录》，新增药品114种，50种为1类创新药；我国卫星超级工厂即将投产，年产1000颗！ 资本市场方面：中国央行连续第13个月增持黄金；在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，证监会主席吴 清发言提到适度拓宽券商资本空间与杠杆上限，从价格竞争转向价值竞争； 《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引》征求意见稿下发，强化盈利比等指标。 国际财经方面：美股三大指数上周五小幅收涨，大型科技股多数上涨；SpaceX告知投资者其计划于 2026年进行首次公开募股。 国内财经 李强主持召开国务院常务会议 研究进一步做好节能降碳工作 据媒体报道，李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。会议指出，节能降碳是推 进碳达峰碳中和、加快发展方式绿色转型的重要抓手。要更高水平更高质量做好节能降碳工作，加大统 筹力度，锚定总体目标，因地制宜推进，在经济发展中促进绿色转型、在绿色转型中实现更好发展。要 切实增强节能降碳内生动力，充分发挥政策效应，不断完善市场机制，有效调动全社会的积极性，加快 形成绿色生产生活方式。 何 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others in the shipping sector [6][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery in shipping rates, particularly for VLCCs, which have seen a rise in one-year charter rates to $58,000 per day. It suggests that investors should capitalize on seasonal fluctuations in freight rates [6][4]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the road freight sector, which has shown a significant increase of 6.90% in the latest week, outperforming other sub-sectors [7][8]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a golden era due to rising passenger volumes and constrained supply, with recommendations for several airlines including China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [6][4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - VLCC average rates reached $115,290 per day, despite a 6% week-on-week decline. The market remains tight, with expectations of increased cargo volumes leading to potential rate increases [6][4]. - The report notes a 2% increase in second-hand bulk carrier prices and a slight uptick in new ship prices, indicating a potential turning point in the market [6][4]. Road Freight - The road freight sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase in freight volume of 0.74% week-on-week, indicating steady growth [7][8]. - The report identifies Dragon Boat Holdings as a standout performer in the road freight sector, with a significant weekly gain of 40.2% [13]. Aviation - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability due to increased international travel and a historical high in passenger load factors [6][4]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and Cathay Pacific, which are expected to benefit from these trends [6][4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with expectations of price stabilization and profit recovery. Companies like YTO Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players [6][4]. Rail and Highway - Rail freight and highway truck traffic are projected to maintain steady growth, with the report noting a slight decrease in highway truck traffic of 0.24% week-on-week [6][4]. - The report suggests that high-dividend investment strategies in the highway sector remain attractive [6][4].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 重点关注 12月6日，证监会主席吴清在中国证券业协会第八次会员大会上，提出"对优质机构优化评价指标、适度拓宽资本空间与杠杆上限，提升资本利用效率"。 12月5日，金融监管总局发布了《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》（以下简称《通知》），根据持仓时间差异，明确保险公司投资的沪深300 指数成份股、中证红利低波动100指数成份股以及科创板股票，将享受较低的风险因子；同时，还进一步调低了保险公司出口信用保险业务和中国出口信 用保险公司海外投资保险业务的保费风险因子和准备金风险因子。 对于普遍存在资本紧张的保险行业而言，此次《通知》将降低已有持仓的资本占用并提升偿付能力充足率水平，从而腾挪出资本空间，进一步提升险资入 市并长期持有的积极性。 基金经理绩效薪酬与基金业绩强挂钩。根据《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引》征求意见稿，对基金经理薪酬进行了调整，过去三年产品业绩低于业绩比 较基准超过十个百分点且基金利润率为负的，其绩效薪酬应当较上一年明显下降，降幅不得少于30%；低于业绩比较基准超过十个百分点但基金利润率为 正的，其绩效薪酬应当下降；低于业绩比较基准不足十个 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the need to optimize evaluation indicators for quality institutions, appropriately expand capital space and leverage limits, and enhance capital utilization efficiency [2][6] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies' investments in specific indices, which will lower capital occupation and improve solvency ratios, encouraging long-term investment by insurance funds [2][8][10] - The new performance assessment guidelines for fund managers link their compensation closely to fund performance, with significant penalties for underperformance [3][15] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 7.412 million ounces as of the end of November [5] - The CSRC is pushing for a shift from price competition to value competition among securities firms, encouraging resource integration and the development of internationally influential benchmark institutions [6] - The CSRC is seeking to enhance corporate governance and investor protection through new regulations on market capitalization management, cash dividends, and share buybacks [7] Group 3 - The new drug directory for basic medical insurance and commercial health insurance will be implemented starting January 1, 2026, with strict compliance required from local authorities [16] - The 2025 drug directory includes 114 new drugs, of which 50 are classified as innovative drugs, highlighting a focus on high-quality development in the pharmaceutical sector [17] Group 4 - Major airlines have extended free ticket changes and cancellations for flights to and from Japan until March 28, 2026, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the travel sector [18] - This week, five new stocks are available for subscription, indicating ongoing market activity [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in shipping and logistics sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery and growth potential in the shipping market, with specific attention to the rise in VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) charter rates and the overall shipping market dynamics [6]. - It identifies key investment opportunities in companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and others, while also suggesting a focus on high-dividend stocks in the transportation sector [6][22]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC one-year charter rates have increased to $58,000 per day, indicating a strong market demand [6]. - The report notes a 6% week-on-week decline in VLCC rates, averaging $115,290 per day, but anticipates potential increases in the coming weeks due to expected cargo volume growth [6]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 6.5% to 2,727 points, with Capesize rates reaching a two-year high [6]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant opportunity for airlines due to the aging aircraft fleet and increasing passenger demand, predicting a "golden era" for the airline industry [6]. - Recommended stocks include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage operational efficiencies and rising demand [6]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [6]. - Companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong growth potential, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]. Road and Rail Transportation - The report indicates resilience in railway freight volumes and highway truck traffic, with a slight increase in railway cargo to 82.12 million tons, up 0.74% week-on-week [6]. - The highway sector is expected to benefit from high dividend yields and potential market value management catalysts [6].