行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 春运错期航空价增，关注顺丰控股经营拐点 ——交运周专题 2026W4 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：春运错期影响持续，票价农历同比增长 海运：油运高位回落，集运加速下跌 物流：龙头份额加速集中，顺丰经营持续调优 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Title 春运错期航空价增，关注顺丰控股经营拐点 2] ——交运周专题 2026W4 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：春运错期影响持续，票价农历同比增长 1 月 23 日，受春运错期影响，国内外客流量同比下滑，国内客运量七日移动平均同比下滑 10%， 国际客运量七日移动平均同比下滑 9%；客座率延续改善趋势，七日移动平均国内客座率同比 增加 0.1pct，国际客座率同比打平；受 2026 年春运较晚影响，本周票价公历同比跌幅放大， 七日移动平均含油价格同比下滑 24.6%，若采用农历同比口径则同比增加 4.4%。展望后市， Q4 开始出行需求逐步爬坡，收益有望边际改善；中长期供给 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the steady growth of the postal industry, with a total delivery volume of 2,165.1 billion pieces in 2025, marking an 11.8% year-on-year increase, and express delivery volume reaching 1,989.5 billion pieces, up 13.6% year-on-year [15][14] - The social service sector has shown a 4.78% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries, with expectations for continued growth in consumer spending driven by various policies [8][12] - The logistics sector is experiencing structural optimization, with the national postal bureau reporting robust growth in the industry, while the airline sector sees a slight decrease in average ticket prices compared to 2019 due to timing issues [15][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.85% to 14,316.64 [1] - The social service sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 5.97 percentage points, indicating strong relative performance [9][8] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the successful first flight of a 500kg tilt-rotor drone, indicating advancements in the low-altitude economy and the potential for eVTOL applications [15][14] - The report notes a general decline in freight rates for major shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions affecting demand [15][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth certainty in the travel chain and related industries, such as Tongcheng Travel and Huangshan Tourism [12] - It also recommends monitoring opportunities in the express logistics sector, particularly for companies like SF Express and Jitu Express, as well as in the airline industry due to increased demand during the Spring Festival [17][12]

"大动脉"日益焕新。行业规模以上分拣中心基本实现自动化运营，无人机年运输量近400万件……2025 年，关于加快邮政业科技发展的意见印发，全行业从劳动密集型快步转向技术密集型，综合运输组合效 率、信息化组织化程度、服务范围和性价比稳居世界前列。 面对外部冲击和内需不足挑战，2025年，邮政快递业坚定动能向新、结构向优，行业发展稳中有 进，"筋络"作用更好发挥。 "强筋"，以新技术助力"提高经济运行效率"。 "用新'国补'买新平板电脑，实惠得很。"今年1月10日10时，四川成都市民李莉点击下单，10多公里 外，京东物流的一场智能配送由此开启—— 智能仓库内，飞梯机器人、搬运机器人在货架间来回穿梭、精准拣选；打包完成后，包裹流向自动分拣 系统，称重、扫描、集包，最快仅需15分钟；及至末端，无人配送车与快递员协同配合，完成送货上 门。从下单到收货，全程不到2小时。 智能仓储、自动分拣、无人配送……新质生产力在多个寄递环节奔涌，成为快递业向新而行的生动注 脚。 科技编织经纬，一张世界领先的智能化物流网络正加速成形—— 清晨5时，湖北鄂州花湖国际机场，一阵轰鸣声中，顺丰航空一架全货机满载货物腾空而起。 各式货物中，来自 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Spring Airlines, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030, driven by a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments leading to a peak order volume of 120 million for Taobao Flash Sales in December 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's rapid growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching CNY 1.2 trillion by 2026 and over CNY 2 trillion by 2030 [10][12]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are evident, with a focus on expanding beyond food delivery to a broader range of products, resulting in substantial order growth [13][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a key player in the instant delivery market, with a 49% revenue growth in H1 2025 and a significant increase in order volume [18][21]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The cargo segment is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - Recommendations include focusing on major airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from improved demand and pricing [57][61]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry has shown resilience, with a 6.5% year-on-year increase in total revenue for 2025, despite challenges in pricing [61][75]. - The report notes a stabilization in single-package pricing, with significant growth in market share for companies like SF Express and YTO Express [75][81]. - The ongoing "anti-involution" trend is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies as competition becomes more structured [81][82].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, YTO Express, and Eastern Airlines Logistics, among others [2][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is experiencing rapid expansion, with China's market expected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026 [8][10]. - Alibaba's commitment to the instant retail sector is strong, with significant investments aimed at expanding beyond food delivery into a full range of instant retail services, evidenced by a peak of 120 million daily orders on Taobao Flash Purchase [12][15]. - SF Express is highlighted as a leading independent third-party instant delivery service, benefiting from the industry's growth and increasing demand for delivery services [30][18]. - The airline industry is recovering from a seasonal downturn, with domestic flight numbers increasing by 1.4% week-on-week, and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [32][43]. - The air cargo sector is also seeing a recovery, with stable freight rates and increased demand expected as the Chinese New Year approaches [50][57]. - The express delivery industry is stabilizing, with a slight increase in average revenue per package, and major players like SF Express and YTO Express gaining market share [61][75]. Summary by Sections Instant Delivery Industry - The instant retail market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of 43.6% from 2018 to 2026, reaching 1.2 trillion yuan by 2026 and over 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [10][18]. - Alibaba's strategic investments in instant retail are reshaping the market, with a focus on expanding beyond traditional food delivery [12][15]. - SF Express is positioned as a key player in the instant delivery sector, benefiting from rapid growth and increased order volumes [30][18]. Airline Industry - The airline sector is showing signs of recovery, with domestic flight operations increasing and ticket prices rising [32][43]. - The air cargo market is stabilizing, with expectations of increased demand leading up to the Chinese New Year [50][57]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery market is stabilizing, with slight improvements in revenue per package and market share gains for major companies [61][75]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the industry, which is expected to lead to improved profitability for express delivery companies [81].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [30]. Core Insights - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from the previous quarter, ranking 16th among 31 industries [5][6]. - The proportion of holdings in the aviation transportation, ports, cross-border logistics, and highways sectors has increased, with respective shares of 56.8%, 3.4%, 4.6%, and 4.8%, showing significant increases [12]. - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include China Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, SF Express, and others, with notable growth rates for China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines at 448% and 244% respectively [20][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Changes in Fund Holdings - The total market value of transportation industry funds reached 21.5 billion, a 19% increase from Q3, with a 1 rank increase in the industry ranking [5][6]. - The transportation industry fund holdings accounted for 1.32% of all fund heavy holdings, up by 0.24 percentage points from Q3 [10]. 2. Sector Performance - The market value changes for various sectors within the transportation industry showed significant fluctuations, with aviation transportation increasing by 80% and express delivery decreasing by 39% [12]. - The holdings in the aviation transportation sector have increased significantly, while express delivery and shipping sectors have seen declines [12]. 3. Top Holdings - The top ten holdings in the transportation industry funds include: - China Eastern Airlines: 45 billion, up 448% - Southern Airlines: 31 billion, up 244% - SF Express: 11 billion, down 16% [20][23]. - Other notable stocks with over 3 billion in total market value and growth rates exceeding 10% include Spring Airlines and Jiayou International [20].

文丨金融八卦女特约作者：身披铠甲的方方 · · · 2026年初的快递圈，还没盼来行业回暖的好消息，倒先爆了个创始人夫妻恩怨大瓜。 1月22日，申通快递突发公告，把很多人都快忘了的陈小英，又拎回公众视野。原因很简单——她那位 离婚13年的前夫奚春阳，突然现身，说要分她名下申通的股份。 两人2012年就各走各路了，陈小英2019年已经高位卖股、基本退出快递江湖。该翻篇的早翻了，偏偏现 在又翻出来。这一纸诉状背后，显然不只是旧情，还有一堆"老账"没说完。 ▲诉讼基 本情况 来源：申通快递官网 陈小英名下4056.85万股，一人一半，2028.4万股，按当天股价一算，差不多2.8个亿。网友当场破 防："原来有钱人的离婚，真的是可以晚十几年再结算的。" 更让人看不懂的是时机。两人2012年就各走各路了，陈小英2019年已经高位卖股、基本退出快递江湖。 该翻篇的早翻了，偏偏现在又翻出来。是当年没算清，还是现在这个点，终于等到了？这一纸诉状背 后，显然不只是旧情，还有一堆"老账"没说完。 如果只看表面，这是一桩并不新鲜的离婚后财产纠纷，但问题恰恰出在"时间点"上。 而奚春阳的诉求也相当明确——他认为，登记在陈小英名下的4 ...

人民日报记者 韩鑫 北国大地，千里冰封；查干湖上，马蹄阵阵。 数九寒天，吉林查干湖冬捕现场，直播与快递齐上阵，助力"北鱼南飞"极速达。 这边，镜头对准冰面，传统渔猎的古老仪式、"冰湖腾鱼"的壮观景象，引得直播间粉丝连连惊叹； 那头，一辆辆冷链车、无人车列队待发，冰湖起网、锁鲜封装，产地直发叠加公铁空立体化运力， 助力鲜鱼最快次日早晨便能抵达北京、上海等地。 小小快递，连接城市乡村、联通线上线下，是推动资源双向流动、畅通经济循环的重要力量。 习近平总书记高度重视现代物流体系建设，强调"物流是实体经济的'筋络'"，指出"要积极发展农村 电子商务和快递业务"。 战略定、方向明，更好连接生产消费、服务实体经济的使命更加清晰。 面对外部冲击和内需不足挑战，2025年，邮政快递业坚定动能向新、结构向优，行业发展稳中有 进，"筋络"作用更好发挥。 "大动脉"日益焕新。行业规模以上分拣中心基本实现自动化运营，无人机年运输量近400万件…… 2025年，关于加快邮政业科技发展的意见印发，全行业从劳动密集型快步转向技术密集型，综合运输组 合效率、信息化组织化程度、服务范围和性价比稳居世界前列。 "微循环"加速迭代。电子运单实现全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance landscape of China's major express delivery companies is becoming clearer as they report their 2025 operational data, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the industry, with significant growth in business volume and revenue [1][6]. Group 1: Performance of Major Companies - SF Holding achieved a milestone in 2025 with annual revenue surpassing 300 billion yuan, driven by logistics and international business growth, despite a slight decline in per-package revenue [2][6]. - YTO Express maintained its leading position within the Tongda system, reporting 683.18 billion yuan in revenue and 311.44 billion packages delivered, with a focus on cost control and international expansion [3][6]. - Shentong Express emerged as a significant player in 2025, with a 28.23% year-on-year increase in revenue to 58.36 billion yuan, benefiting from the consolidation of Daniao Logistics [3][6]. - Yunda Express experienced a decline in package volume but managed to increase per-package revenue, indicating a strategic shift towards rational development and profitability [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Developments - The express delivery industry is transitioning from low-price competition to high-quality development, with companies prioritizing profitability over volume [6][8]. - Technological advancements and green transformation are becoming key drivers of industry growth, with increased investment in smart logistics and sustainable practices [7][8]. - Internationalization and collaborative development are emerging as strategic priorities for leading companies, enhancing their global service networks and competitiveness [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing optimization of industry structure is expected to enhance the resource integration capabilities and brand advantages of leading companies, while compressing the survival space for smaller firms [8]. - Competition surrounding service upgrades, technological innovation, and international expansion is anticipated to intensify, positioning the Chinese express delivery industry for robust resilience and growth potential in the global logistics market [8].

连接生产消费 服务实体经济 我国建成世界规模最大寄递网络(向新向优的中国产业) 北国大地，千里冰封；查干湖上，马蹄阵阵。 数九寒天，吉林查干湖冬捕现场，直播与快递齐上阵，助力"北鱼南飞"极速达。 那头，一辆辆冷链车、无人车列队待发，冰湖起网、锁鲜封装，产地直发叠加公铁空立体化运力，助力 鲜鱼最快次日早晨便能抵达北京、上海等地。 小小快递，连接城市乡村、联通线上线下，是推动资源双向流动、畅通经济循环的重要力量。 习近平总书记高度重视现代物流体系建设，强调"物流是实体经济的'筋络'"，指出"要积极发展农村电子 商务和快递业务"。 战略定、方向明，更好连接生产消费、服务实体经济的使命更加清晰。 面对外部冲击和内需不足挑战，2025年，邮政快递业坚定动能向新、结构向优，行业发展稳中有 进，"筋络"作用更好发挥。 这边，镜头对准冰面，传统渔猎的古老仪式、"冰湖腾鱼"的壮观景象，引得直播间粉丝连连惊叹； "强筋"，以新技术助力"提高经济运行效率"。 "用新'国补'买新平板电脑，实惠得很。"今年1月10日10时，四川成都市民李莉点击下单，10多公里 外，京东物流的一场智能配送由此开启—— 智能仓库内，飞梯机器人、搬运机器人 ...