Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][66]. Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to control pig prices, with expectations of a gradual adjustment rather than aggressive interventions. The focus is on low-cost performance and dividend increases for value reassessment, particularly for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [1][14]. - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with historical highs in the number of breeding stock updates. The price dynamics are currently low, but there is potential for marginal changes in the cycle. Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. - The animal health sector is advancing with the clinical trials of the African swine fever subunit vaccine, which has received approval for clinical trials. The likelihood of domestic vaccine market entry is increasing, with recommended companies including BioFeng and Kexin Biological [3][6]. - The pet industry continues to grow rapidly, with significant improvements in profitability. Recommended companies in the pet food sector include GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co., while in the pet medical sector, RuiPu Biological is highlighted [9][60]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing a capacity reduction phase, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing prices. The average price of pigs in December 2025 was 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13][14]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][14]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is seeing a potential improvement in fundamentals, with breeding stock updates reaching historical highs. The average price for broiler chickens was 3.9 CNY/jin, with a slight increase [26][28]. - Recommended companies are Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is focused on the progress of the African swine fever vaccine trials, with the first round of trials proceeding as planned. The second round is set to begin by the end of March 2026 [3][6]. - Companies to watch include BioFeng, Kexin Biological, and RuiPu Biological [6]. Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The average annual spending per pet dog is 2,961 CNY, while for cats, it is 2,020 CNY [59][60]. - Recommended companies include GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Peidi Co. in the pet food sector, and RuiPu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][60]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with the price of feed for fattening pigs at 3.34 CNY/kg, showing a month-on-month increase [47][48]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and HeFeng Co. [48]. Planting Industry - Grain prices have increased year-on-year, with corn prices at 2,250 CNY/ton, showing a 10.5% increase compared to the previous year [41][46]. - Companies to focus on include SuKan Agricultural Development, LongPing High-Tech, and DengHai Seeds [7][46].

Group 1 - The feed sector experienced a decline of 0.25% on January 12, with Jin Xin Nong leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] - Major stocks in the feed sector showed varied performance, with notable gainers including Guai Bao Pet Food, which rose by 2.75% to a closing price of 69.14 [1] Group 2 - Jin Xin Nong's stock price fell by 2.37% to 6.18, with a trading volume of 488,700 shares and a turnover of 303 million yuan [2] - The feed sector saw a net outflow of 184 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 141 million yuan [2] - The stock performance of various companies indicated mixed trends, with some stocks like Petty Co. showing a slight increase of 0.43% [2][3] Group 3 - The main fund inflow for Da Bei Nong was 29.46 million yuan, while it experienced a net outflow from retail investors of 10.16 million yuan [3] - Lu Si Co. had a net inflow of 1.44 million yuan from main funds, with retail investors also contributing positively [3] - The overall sentiment in the feed sector appears cautious, with significant movements in fund flows indicating varying investor confidence [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

农林畜产品分册 ——2026 年市场回顾与 2025 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘锦 投资咨询号：Z0011862 从业资格号： F0276812 摘要 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 油脂：沉舟侧畔千帆过 病树前头万木春 粕类：远山初见疑无路 曲径徐行渐有村 全球宏观关注要点，2025 年中美之间先后经历了 5 轮经贸争端，在激烈的对抗中， 中方表现坚定，维护自身利益，最终美方在稀土受制和大豆出口腰斩的背景下，在第 五轮经贸谈判中做出主动取消芬太尼为首的关税行动，中方开始采购美豆。全球大豆 贸易导向从"供给定价"转为"需求定价"。2026 年对全球经济的展望，1、从经济 周期视角，2026 年一季度美国经济大概率见顶。美国消费仍是全球经济的原动力，美 国经济的下行将对全球经济产生外溢风险。2026 年夏季美国经济出现经济金融危机的 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年全年，油脂板块整体走势振荡偏强，各品种强弱时间上略有分化。棕榈油先抑 后扬，全年波幅最大；菜籽油领涨植物油板块；豆油全年是区间振荡为主。棕榈方面： 2025 年 1-5 月，印尼 B40 政策不明朗，产量增加，出口降 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Province aims to enhance the bio-manufacturing industry, targeting a total output value of approximately 500 billion yuan by 2027 and reaching a trillion yuan scale by 2035, focusing on key areas such as non-grain utilization, medical beauty raw materials, microbial proteins, and green processes in biopharmaceuticals [2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Measures and Goals - The action plan specifies the development goals for the bio-manufacturing industry in Guangdong, aiming for a total output value of around 500 billion yuan by 2027 and a trillion yuan scale by 2035 [2][3]. - The measures address key bottlenecks in bio-manufacturing, including the need for improved standards and ecosystem development [4][6]. Group 2: Key Initiatives - The policy outlines detailed initiatives to tackle issues such as an incomplete industrial chain and lagging standard system construction, emphasizing the establishment of a comprehensive bio-manufacturing industry standard system [6]. - It encourages the establishment of innovation platforms and supports the construction of transformation bases for innovative achievements, promoting technology transfer and application [6]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Development - The measures focus on core technology breakthroughs, including strains, enzyme preparations, and reactors, as well as high-end platform construction and targeted R&D mechanisms [7]. - The policy emphasizes the importance of building a robust standard system that includes both domestic and international standards, facilitating market access and internationalization [7]. Group 4: Applications in Bio-Manufacturing - The initiative aims to advance non-grain bio-based materials, medical beauty products, and "new food" categories, promoting the use of microbial proteins and plant-based proteins [8][9]. - In the pharmaceutical sector, the policy encourages the application of bio-manufacturing in green process development for biopharmaceuticals and the synthesis of effective components from traditional Chinese medicine [9]. Group 5: Internationalization Strategies - The policy outlines strategies for internationalization, including aligning with international standards organizations and expanding overseas markets through e-commerce and overseas warehouses [10]. - It emphasizes the importance of attracting key domestic and international enterprises and high-end R&D institutions to build a global resource collaboration network [10]. Group 6: Regional Development and Innovation - Guangdong Province implements a "dual-core drive" strategy, focusing on Guangzhou and Shenzhen to accelerate the development of the bio-manufacturing industry in the Greater Bay Area [11]. - The policy supports the establishment of a comprehensive support system for bio-manufacturing, covering research, pilot testing, and industrialization [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of pig farming enterprises from passive risk management to active risk management through the establishment of professional futures teams and refined hedging operations in response to ongoing price pressures in the pig market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Overview - In 2025, the pig market faced significant challenges, with average prices significantly lower than in 2023 and 2024, reaching a low of 11 yuan/kg in October, leading to deep industry losses [2][4]. - The average price of lean pigs in 2025 was 13.80 yuan/kg, with a downward trend observed throughout the year, particularly after mid-September when prices fell below the industry cost line [4]. - The overall pig farming industry has experienced four complete cycles of the "pig cycle" since 2006, with the current phase being the most painful "bottoming" stage of the fifth cycle [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, the total pig output is expected to reach 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [5]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity by 23.8% under the same breeding stock [5]. - Demand for pork is declining due to macroeconomic factors affecting consumer willingness, with traditional peak seasons seeing a 10%-15% year-on-year decrease in consumption [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance of Companies - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods reported a total sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million heads from 2024, but total sales revenue decreased by approximately 3.4 billion yuan due to lower average selling prices [6]. - The cost of pig farming is currently estimated to be between 12 and 13 yuan/kg, with top companies achieving lower costs through management advantages [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting futures hedging as a critical strategy for risk management, moving away from traditional sales models that do not guarantee stable profits [8][9]. - Futures hedging has become a normalized part of operations, focusing on locking in profits rather than speculative trading [9][11]. - The implementation of futures contracts allows companies to stabilize their profits and manage risks effectively, as demonstrated by various companies' experiences in the market [10][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the feed raw material prices are expected to rise significantly in 2025, with corn, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal increasing by over 10%, 9%, and 8% respectively, while the market dynamics show differentiation in trends [1][2] - In 2025, the total production of pig feed is projected to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0% in April, driven by a rebound in breeding demand, while the market is characterized by regional differentiation and concentration among leading producers [3] - Major feed companies are expected to maintain robust profitability in 2025, with Hai Da Group reporting a net profit of 2.639 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 24.16%, and New Hope Liuhe achieving a net profit of 755 million yuan, a significant increase of 162% [4] Group 2 - For 2026, the supply side anticipates corn production to exceed 300 million tons, with soybean imports remaining above 100 million tons, while the demand side expects stable total feed production around 330 million tons, indicating a slowdown in growth due to a reduction in breeding capacity [5] - At the beginning of 2026, major companies are expected to implement price increases of 50-100 yuan per ton for various feed products, driven by rising raw material costs and the need to ensure product quality [6] - The price dynamics in early 2026 show a two-round price increase driven by rising raw material costs, with the first round occurring in December 2025 and the second round at the beginning of 2026, influenced by seasonal stocking demands [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the agricultural industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a structural shortage in the pig market, with expectations for a price turning point in Q2 2026 due to ongoing capacity reduction and favorable policies [3][9] - The report emphasizes the potential for long-term performance improvement in the pig farming sector, driven by policy and market forces [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, anticipating a price recovery in Q2 2026, with suggested stocks including Muyuan Foods (002714, Buy), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498, Buy), and Shennong Group (605296, Not Rated) [3] - It also suggests looking at the animal health sector, which may benefit from profit transmission down the supply chain, with recommended stocks including Haida Group (002311, Buy) and Reap Bio (300119, Not Rated) [3] - In the planting chain, the report notes a confirmed upward trend in grain prices, highlighting investment opportunities in large-scale planting, with suggested stocks including Suqian Agricultural Development (601952, Not Rated) and Beidahuang (600598, Not Rated) [3] - The pet food sector is also highlighted, with growth driven by increasing domestic brand recognition and overseas market expansion, recommending stocks such as Guibao Pet (301498, Not Rated) and Zhongchong Co. (002891, Not Rated) [3] Industry Fundamentals - The report indicates that December saw a continued increase in pig output, with 13 listed pig companies collectively reporting an output of 18.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 7.11% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [13] - The average selling price for pigs in December remained low, with a range from 10.66 yuan/kg to 12.54 yuan/kg, and an overall average around 11.5 yuan/kg [15] - The average weight of pigs sold in December was 124.85 kg, reflecting a decrease of 1.8 kg from the previous month, indicating a trend of accelerated inventory reduction [15][16] Market Trends - The report notes that the natural rubber market is experiencing price strength, with futures prices reaching 16,030 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2.72% [47] - The report also highlights a stable upward trend in grain prices, with corn and wheat prices showing slight declines while soybean meal prices have increased [37]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market faced significant challenges in 2025, characterized by a prolonged downturn in prices, deepening losses for pig farming enterprises, and a shift towards proactive risk management strategies in response to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and regulatory pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2025, the average price of lean pigs was 13.80 yuan/kg, with prices dropping significantly, reaching as low as 11 yuan/kg in October, marking a period of deep losses for the industry [2][4]. - The overall pig output in 2025 was projected at 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [3]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity and exacerbating the supply pressure [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Leading company Muyuan Foods sold 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million from 2024, but its total sales revenue fell to 132.811 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 3.4 billion yuan from the previous year due to lower sales prices [4]. - By December 2025, self-breeding and external purchasing models faced significant losses, with average losses of 62 yuan per head for self-breeding and 210 yuan per head for purchased piglets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting proactive risk management strategies, including forming specialized futures teams and implementing detailed hedging operations to mitigate the impacts of price volatility [1][5]. - Futures hedging has become a critical component of business operations, allowing companies to lock in profits and stabilize earnings despite low market prices [6][8]. - The participation of over 3,000 industry clients in pig futures trading indicates a growing trend towards using futures as a risk management tool, with 24 out of 32 major pig enterprises engaging in futures transactions [7][8].