Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery sector shows resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. Long-term competition in the e-commerce express delivery market is expected to improve [12] - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak and performance forecast periods, with a sustainable recovery in demand and a tightening supply situation [12] - The shipping market is expected to see a positive outlook due to the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - ZTO Express forecasts a revenue range of 48.5 to 50 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 12.9%. The company expects a package volume of 38.52 billion pieces, a 13.3% increase year-on-year [5] - The company plans to issue $1.5 billion in convertible preferred notes, with a net amount of approximately $1.404 billion, to refinance and repurchase shares [6] - The express delivery market is characterized by significant growth opportunities for companies like YTO Express and SF Express, driven by market share increases and operational stability [12] Aviation - Global air passenger traffic is projected to reach 10.2 billion in 2026, a 3.9% year-on-year increase, with strong demand expected to continue [7] - The Spring Festival travel volume is expected to reach 95 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [8] - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) indicates a strong demand for air travel in 2025, with a 5.3% increase in global passenger demand [8] Shipping and Ports - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical developments and trade agreements, particularly with India ceasing oil purchases from Russia [9] - The BDI index increased by 1.1% to 2011 points, indicating a positive trend in the dry bulk shipping market [11] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.63% week-on-week, with container throughput rising by 12.41% [12] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.27% and highway freight vehicle traffic up by 4.75% [12] - The road passenger volume decreased by 2.60% year-on-year, while rail passenger volume increased by 8.52% [12] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics sector in South China is undergoing transformation, providing performance elasticity and potential for value reassessment [12] - The chemical logistics market is expanding, with significant growth opportunities for leading companies [12] Ports - The port sector is stabilizing, with strong cash flow and a focus on hub growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a strong demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with an upward trend in ticket prices expected to continue. The report suggests a long-term investment strategy based on a "super cycle" logic [3][4]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, with expectations for tanker profits to increase significantly year-on-year in Q1 2026, indicating a potential "super bull market" [3][4]. - The express delivery industry is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability, driven by a reduction in competitive pressure and a gradual increase in price levels [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The Spring Festival travel season officially began on February 2, 2026, with a year-on-year increase in passenger flow of 2% as of February 6, 2026. Air travel saw a 6% increase, while rail travel decreased by 1% [4][10]. - The report highlights that the aviation market's load factor and ticket prices are both showing positive year-on-year growth. The limited increase in train and bus services is expected to benefit airline revenue management [4]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in airline profitability during the Spring Festival season, with Q1 2026 expected to show industry-wide profitability due to favorable ticket price trends and a decrease in oil prices [4]. Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical tensions have kept shipping rates elevated, with tanker utilization rates remaining high since August 2025 due to increased oil production and stricter sanctions on Russian oil [4]. - The average freight rate for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) on the Middle East to China route has maintained above $120,000 per day [20]. - The report emphasizes that the oil shipping sector is not merely a short-term play on geopolitical events but has a long-term bullish outlook due to ongoing global oil production increases and the aging of tanker fleets [4]. Express Delivery - The report indicates that the express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with a year-on-year growth in parcel volume of 13.6% for 2025, although December's growth slowed to 2% due to high operational costs and a warm winter [4]. - The report highlights a narrowing decline in industry pricing, with December's average revenue per parcel decreasing by only 2% year-on-year, suggesting a potential easing of competitive pressures [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading express companies that are optimizing their business structures and building differentiated competitive advantages, such as SF Express and ZTO Express [4].

Macro Research - The recent significant drop in gold prices is primarily due to previous irrational surges, high leverage, and crowded trading conditions, which does not alter the long-term bullish trend for gold. Mid to long-term investment opportunities in gold should still be considered [2][3] Social Services Industry Research - The optimization of vacation systems, improvement in cultural tourism supply, and acceleration of local asset securitization are expected to create investment opportunities in the scenic area sector. Three main lines for investment are suggested: focus on transportation improvements, resource integration expectations, and new project launches [3][4] Cosmetics Industry Research - The cosmetics market is expected to continue steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rise of domestic brands. It is recommended to selectively invest in high-growth companies and those with recovery potential due to product and channel changes. Specific companies to consider include 若羽臣, 倍加洁, 毛戈平, 林清轩, and 上美股份 for strong fundamentals, and 贝泰妮, 珀莱雅, and others for recovery potential [6][7][8]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) is reported at 4120 points this week, showing a year-on-year decrease of 5.0% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1% [1] - The CCPI for the previous week was 4066 points, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - The domestic maritime shipping price for liquid chemicals was 168 RMB/ton, down 8.51% year-on-year and 0.62% month-on-month [1] Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume increased by 2.3% year-on-year, with some companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition [2] - The total collection volume for postal express from January 26 to February 1 was approximately 4.541 billion pieces, up 60.8% year-on-year and 5.5% month-on-month [2] - The total delivery volume during the same period was about 4.477 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.8% [2] - The State Post Bureau forecasts that by 2025, express delivery revenue will reach 1.5 trillion RMB, growing by 6.5% year-on-year [2] Logistics - DSV's integration of DB Schenker is progressing ahead of expectations, with completion anticipated by the end of 2026 [3] - The company is focusing on smart logistics, benefiting from improved demand [3] Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights nationwide decreased by 1.08% year-on-year, with domestic flights down 1.28% [4] - Brent crude oil futures settled at 67.55 USD/barrel, down 4.47% month-on-month and 11.07% year-on-year [4] - The domestic aviation kerosene ex-factory price (including tax) is 5334 RMB/ton, down 4.3% month-on-month and 12.7% year-on-year [4] - The airline sector is expected to see profit elasticity due to supply constraints from aircraft manufacturers and upstream component suppliers [4] Shipping - The container shipping price index (CCFI) is at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% month-on-month and 20.7% year-on-year [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% month-on-month and 33.2% year-on-year [5] - The crude oil transportation index (BDTI) increased by 2.1% month-on-month and 88.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for oil transportation [5] - A recent agreement between the U.S. and India to halt Russian oil purchases is expected to boost oil transportation demand [5] Road and Rail Ports - Anhui Expressway completed the acquisition of Shandong Expressway, acquiring 7% of its total share capital at a price of 8.92 RMB/share, totaling 3.019 billion RMB [5] - The total number of freight vehicles on national highways reached 56.83 million, up 4.75% month-on-month and 506.12% year-on-year [5]

2026年春节假期再次延长，将保障探亲出游继续两旺。近日全国春运电视电话会议预计，2026年春运跨 区域人员流动量将达95亿人次，同比增长约5.3%，将再创历史新高。 其中，铁路、民航客运量总体规模和单日峰值均有望超过历史同期峰值。 中国民航局运输司司长徐青1月29日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年民航春运除了传统的返乡过年 外，出入境游和北方冰雪游和南方避寒游也将成为热点。预计旅游航线将迎来新的出行高峰。据预测， 今年春运全国民航旅客运输量将达到9500万人次，同比增长约5.3%。 摩根士丹利称，将中国国航、中国东方航空和南方航空的A股评级上调至超配。在需求顺风的推动下， 始于去年四季度的复苏可能会在2026-2027年继续获得动能，尽管投资者仓位和信心仍然较低，但潜在 的价格上调将有助提振市场情绪。摩根大通对三大航H股及春秋航空维持超配评级。 航空公司相关产业港股： 中国国航(00753)；东方航空(00670)；南方航空(01055)；国泰航空(00293) 中银航空租赁(02588)：瑞银发布研报称，中银航空租赁(02588)受惠于资产增长重新加速，现正朝着新 的股东权益回报率(ROE)上升周期迈进，预 ...

航空公司相关产业港股： 2月5日，空客在其最新的亚太地区《全球航空服务市场预测》报告中预测，到2044年，该地区的服务总 需求将以5.2%的复合年均增长率增长，市场价值预计将达到1387亿美元。这种持续增长将得益于航空 客运量和机队规模的扩大。未来20年，亚太地区将需要19560架新客机，占预测期内全球总需求的 46%。预计该地区仍将是全球增长最快的航空旅行市场，客运量年增长率为4.4%。高于3.6%的全球平均 水平。 据航旅纵横大数据显示，截至1月29日国内航线预订量已超716万张，日均机票预订量同比+16%。 银河证券表示，高频预订数据与官方运量预测形成交叉印证，反映民航出行需求旺盛，叠加航班供给稳 步释放，有望支撑春运民航客流与收益水平同步改善。 摩根士丹利称，将中国国航（601111）、中国东方航空和南方航空（600029）的A股评级上调至超配。 在需求顺风的推动下，始于去年四季度的复苏可能会在2026-2027年继续获得动能，尽管投资者仓位和 信心仍然较低，但潜在的价格上调将有助提振市场情绪。摩根大通对三大航H股及春秋航空（601021） 维持超配评级。 2026年春节假期再次延长，将保障探亲出游继 ...

摩根士丹利称，将中国国航、中国东方航空和南方航空的A股评级上调至超配。在需求顺风的推动下， 始于去年四季度的复苏可能会在2026-2027年继续获得动能，尽管投资者仓位和信心仍然较低，但潜在 的价格上调将有助提振市场情绪。摩根大通对三大航H股及春秋航空维持超配评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese civil aviation industry is experiencing a significant turnaround after years of operational pressure, with major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines expected to return to profitability by 2025, indicating substantial improvement in the industry's fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines is the first among major airlines to achieve profitability, projecting a net profit of 0.8 to 1 billion yuan for 2025, a significant recovery from a loss of 1.696 billion yuan the previous year [2]. - Hainan Airlines is also expected to turn profitable, forecasting a net profit of 1.8 to 2.2 billion yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of 0.921 billion yuan in the prior year [2]. - China Eastern Airlines and Air China are not expected to achieve profitability in 2025, with projected net losses of 1.3 to 1.9 billion yuan and 1.3 to 1.9 billion yuan respectively, despite improvements in core operational metrics [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is anticipated to see a record high in passenger volume, with an expected 95 million travelers, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The travel demand is driven by a longer holiday period, with new travel patterns emerging, including a trend of "returning home first, then traveling" [5][6]. - The aviation market is showing signs of "volume and price rising together," with a notable increase in flight operations and ticket prices during the early days of the Spring Festival travel period [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The civil aviation industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with measures being implemented to control excessive competition and improve profitability [7]. - The supply of new aircraft is limited, with a backlog of over 15,000 global aircraft orders and an extended delivery cycle of 6.8 years, which is expected to constrain supply in 2026 [8]. - International routes are becoming increasingly important for profitability, with airlines focusing on expanding international services to enhance revenue [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air cargo: The outbound air cargo price index at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - Shipping: VLCC freight rates increased by 2%, while the BDI decreased by 10% and SCFI decreased by 4% [7][48]. - The report highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3% for aircraft imports over the next three years, indicating a supply constraint in the aviation sector [31][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends leading companies in express logistics, such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the instant retail leader Shunfeng Tongcheng, which is expected to benefit from rapid growth and low valuation [7][31]. - The report also highlights the importance of dividend-paying assets, recommending Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for dividend increases [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [6] Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from the high demand during the Spring Festival travel season, with a notable increase in passenger volume and airline ticket prices [3][11] - The logistics sector shows promising growth, particularly for companies like ZTO Express, which has reported an increase in market share and profitability [4][17] - The shipping market is experiencing high VLCC rates due to tight capacity and geopolitical premiums, while dry bulk rates have seen a decline [2][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - On February 2, 2026, the Spring Festival travel season commenced, with a total of 184.986 million people traveling, an increase of 11.3% compared to the same period in 2025. The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.234 million, up 7.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The transportation sector index rose by 1.90% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.17 percentage points [21] - The top-performing segments included air transportation, express delivery, and logistics, with respective increases of 8.15%, 3.76%, and 1.24% [21] Air Travel - The average ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival was 840 yuan, a 3.0% increase from 2025, with an average seat occupancy rate of 83.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][11] - The report anticipates continued growth in the aviation sector driven by demand recovery and supportive policies, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates, with the Middle East route commanding $119,447 per day and the West Africa route at $130,293 per day as of February 6 [2][13] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell to 1,923 points, indicating a decrease in dry bulk shipping rates [14] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the shipping market dynamics, particularly in relation to geopolitical factors and supply chain developments [15] Logistics - ZTO Express reported a 9.3% year-on-year increase in parcel volume for Q4 2025, with a slight increase in single-ticket revenue and gross profit [4][17] - The company is issuing $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to finance share buybacks, aiming to enhance shareholder returns [18] - The logistics sector is expected to see growth driven by overseas e-commerce and competitive dynamics among leading express companies [19][20]