Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the MCE therapy in the treatment of B cell autoimmune diseases, particularly systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) [8][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the urgent need for effective treatments for SLE, which currently lacks a root-cause therapy, and emphasizes the potential of B cell-targeted therapies like MCE to address this unmet clinical need [10][22]. - It discusses the advantages of MCE therapy over existing treatments such as CAR-T and TCE, particularly in terms of safety and efficacy in depleting pathogenic B cells [10][42]. - The report identifies key companies to watch in the clinical progress of MCE therapies, including 宜明昂科, 赛诺菲, Dren Bio, and LTZ Therapeutics [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. B Cell Autoimmune Diseases: Diverse Types and Large Population - Autoimmune diseases involve the immune system mistakenly attacking the body's own tissues, with significant prevalence among conditions like rheumatoid arthritis (RA), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), multiple sclerosis (MS), and others [14][15]. 2. SLE: Large Population and Heavy Disease Burden - SLE affects approximately 7.8 million people globally, with a significant patient population in China, estimated at around 1 million [18][19]. - The disease presents severe symptoms and complications, leading to a high demand for effective treatments [19]. 3. SLE Treatment: Significant Unmet Clinical Needs, B Cell Therapy as a Mainstream Development - Current treatments for SLE are inadequate, with a low long-term remission rate and high recurrence risk [20][21]. - Innovative therapies that can achieve long-term remission or potential cures are urgently needed in the SLE treatment landscape [22]. 4. T Cell Killing: CAR-T and TCE - CAR-T and TCE therapies are explored for their potential to target and deplete pathogenic B cells, with CAR-T showing promising long-term efficacy in SLE patients [25][26]. - However, challenges such as high costs and safety concerns remain significant barriers to widespread adoption [32][33]. 5. Myeloid Cell Killing: MCE - MCE therapy utilizes myeloid cells to target and eliminate pathogenic B cells, showing potential for improved safety profiles compared to CAR-T and TCE therapies [47][50]. - The report emphasizes the innovative mechanisms of MCE and its potential to address the limitations of existing therapies [52].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential investment opportunities in small-cap biotech companies with market capitalizations below 3 billion, suggesting that a market recovery could lead to significant stock price increases for these companies [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Many biotech stocks with market caps below 3 billion have experienced significant price increases since early 2025, indicating a trend of recovery from previous low valuations [2][5]. - The article highlights that the majority of small-cap biotech companies have cash reserves below the 600 million safety line, making it difficult for them to transition from negative to positive cash flow [5]. Group 2: Company Analysis - **Yiming Oncology (宜明昂科)**: Focused on CD47, currently in Phase 3 clinical trials. The company has 700 million in cash, sufficient for about two years of R&D [6]. - **Zhuanxin Biotech (荃信生物)**: Engaged in autoimmune therapies, currently has negligible cash reserves but aims to survive through business development (BD) models [8]. - **Jiahua Biotech (嘉和生物)**: Recently merged with Yiteng, has 1.1 billion in cash, positioning it to potentially return to the mid-cap biotech sector [10]. - **Tengsheng Biopharma (腾盛博药)**: Focused on hepatitis treatments, has 2.4 billion in net cash, but is reducing expenses and focusing on clinical trials [11]. - **Sanyecao Biotech (三叶草生物)**: Previously a star in the COVID vaccine space, now facing financial difficulties with only 500 million in cash [13]. - **Zhaoke Ophthalmology (兆科眼科)**: Has 1.3 billion in cash, focusing on eye care products, with a relatively low annual R&D expenditure [14]. - **Deqi Pharmaceuticals (德琪医药)**: Has seen a significant decrease in cash reserves from 3 billion to 700 million, indicating a need for better cash management [16]. - **Hualing Pharmaceuticals (华领医药)**: A stable company with 900 million in cash, focusing on diabetes treatments and low R&D spending [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the urgent need for innovative therapies in the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), a condition with a significant patient burden and no current curative treatment options [7][19][21] - B cell-targeted therapies, particularly myeloid cell engagers (MCE), are emerging as promising solutions for SLE, with the potential to achieve deep and lasting depletion of pathogenic B cells [9][10][19] - The report emphasizes the clinical progress of companies like Yiming Oncology, Sanofi, Dren Bio, and LTZ Therapeutics, which are leading in the development of MCE therapies [10][19] Summary by Sections B Cell Autoimmune Diseases - Autoimmune diseases are characterized by the immune system mistakenly attacking the body's own tissues, with a wide variety of B cell autoimmune diseases affecting millions globally, including rheumatoid arthritis (39.8 million), systemic lupus erythematosus (7.8 million), and multiple sclerosis (2.8 million) [13][14] SLE: Patient Population and Disease Burden - SLE is a complex autoimmune disease affecting multiple systems and organs, with a significant prevalence in women aged 20-40, leading to severe health impacts and a strong desire for effective treatments [17][18] SLE Treatment: Unmet Clinical Needs - Current treatments for SLE are inadequate, with a low long-term remission rate and high recurrence risk, highlighting the need for innovative therapies that can provide sustained relief and potentially cure the disease [19][20][21] T Cell-Based Therapies: CAR-T and TCE - CAR-T and T cell engagers (TCE) are being explored for their ability to target and deplete pathogenic B cells, with CAR-T showing promising long-term efficacy in SLE patients [24][37] - However, CAR-T therapies are expensive and complex, while TCEs offer a more standardized and potentially safer alternative, though they may not achieve the same depth of B cell depletion [41][43] Myeloid Cell Engagers (MCE) - MCE therapies represent a novel approach by utilizing myeloid cells to target and eliminate pathogenic B cells, with initial clinical data suggesting promising safety and efficacy profiles [9][10][46] - Companies like Yiming Oncology are at the forefront of this innovation, with upcoming clinical data expected to provide further insights into the effectiveness of MCE therapies for SLE [10][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [4] Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has seen a significant increase in institutional preference, with the total heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs reaching 57.62 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 62% [9][19] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs accounted for 1.90% of the total market heavy positions, up by 0.79 percentage points, and 19.43% of the heavy positions in the pharmaceutical industry, up by 6.36 percentage points [9][21] - The report highlights that the preference for innovative drugs is driven by continuous revenue and profit realization from domestic sales and overseas licensing, along with anticipated catalysts from upcoming academic conferences in Q2 [19][21] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From April 28 to May 2, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Aidi Pharmaceutical (19.49%), Kelun-Botai Biological (17.02%), Lepu Biopharma (16.09%), Connora (13.61%), and Canaan Pharma (13.60%) [15][17] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: Kangfang Biopharma (-11.22%), Yiming Oncology (-10.03%), Dongyao Pharmaceutical (-6.90%), Maibo Pharmaceutical (-6.52%), and Ascentage Pharma (-5.63%) [15][17] New Drug Application Approvals and Acceptances - No new drug or new indication applications were approved this week; however, six new drug or new indication applications were accepted, including Biocodex's Sitalopram Capsules and BeiGene's Sotoclar Tablets [33][34] New Drug Clinical Application Approvals and Acceptances - This week, 33 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 36 new drug clinical applications were accepted [37][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [4] Core Insights - The innovative drug sector has seen a significant increase in institutional preference, with the total heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs reaching 57.62 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 62% [9][19] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs accounted for 1.90% of the total market heavy positions, up by 0.79 percentage points, and 19.43% of the heavy positions in the pharmaceutical industry, up by 6.36 percentage points [9][21] - The report highlights that the preference for innovative drugs is driven by continuous revenue and profit realization from domestic sales and overseas licensing, along with anticipated catalysts from upcoming academic conferences in Q2 [19][21] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From April 28 to May 2, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Aidi Pharmaceutical (19.49%), Kelun-Botai Biopharmaceutical (17.02%), Lepu Biopharmaceutical (16.09%), Connora (13.61%), and Canaan Pharma (13.60%) [15] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: Kangfang Biopharmaceutical (-11.22%), Yiming Oncology (-10.03%), Dongyao Pharmaceutical (-6.90%), Maibo Pharmaceutical (-6.52%), and Ascentage Pharma (-5.63%) [15] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report analyzed the latest heavy positions of all funds in the innovative drug sector as of March 31, 2025, focusing on A-share and Hong Kong Biotech companies [19] - The heavy positions in Biotech innovative drugs represented 6.11% of the total market circulation value, an increase of 0.90 percentage points [24][31] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance Status - No new drug or new indication applications were approved this week; however, six new drug or new indication applications were accepted, including Biocodex's Sitalopram Capsules and BeiGene's Sotoclar Tablets [33][34] Weekly New Drug Clinical Application Approval & Acceptance Status - This week, 33 new drug clinical applications were approved, and 36 new drug clinical applications were accepted [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the biopharmaceutical sector [6]. Core Insights - The ASCO 2025 conference is set to take place from May 30 to June 3, 2025, and several domestic pharmaceutical companies are expected to present new clinical data, with potential for exceeding expectations [2][14]. - A total of 13 new drugs or new indications were approved for market launch in the past week, alongside 50 new drug IND approvals and 27 IND applications accepted [3][17]. Weekly New Drug Market Review - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: - Yiming Oncology: +40.20% - Ascentage Pharma: +38.63% - Genscript Biotech: +27.13% - JACOB: +24.52% - Kedi: +24.02% - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: - Boan Biotech: -23.11% - ZhiXiang JinTai: -7.30% - Maibo Pharmaceutical: -7.07% - Aidi Pharmaceutical: -6.30% - Haizhi Pharmaceutical: -3.76% [10][11]. Weekly New Drug Industry Key Analysis - The ASCO 2025 conference will feature multiple oral presentations from domestic companies, including: - Innovent Biologics: PD-1/IL-2 dual antibody with three oral reports and Claudin18.2 ADC with one oral report. - Other companies such as Kelun Biotech, BaiLi TianHeng, and Hengrui Medicine are also expected to present various new drugs and indications [2][14][15]. Weekly New Drug Approvals & Acceptance - The report highlights the approval of 13 new drugs or new indications, including: - Canfuo Biotech's PD-1/VEGF dual-specificity tumor immunotherapy drug approved for new indications. - AstraZeneca's Dupixent for chronic spontaneous urticaria in patients aged 12 and older [4][18]. - Additionally, 50 new drug INDs were approved, and 27 IND applications were accepted [3][17]. Domestic New Drug Industry Focus - Key highlights include: - Canfuo Biotech's PD-1 monoclonal antibody approved by the FDA for metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. - Canfuo Biotech's new indication for its PD-1/VEGF dual-specificity drug approved by NMPA for non-small cell lung cancer. - Novartis' BTK inhibitor approved for chronic lymphocytic leukemia [4][18]. Overseas New Drug Industry Focus - Notable developments include: - Sanofi's Dupixent for chronic spontaneous urticaria approved by the FDA. - AstraZeneca's Enhertu showing positive results in clinical trials for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer. - Gilead Sciences' Trodelvy achieving positive results in clinical studies [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant potential of blocking the Activin receptor (ActR) signaling pathway to promote muscle growth, particularly in treating muscle atrophy-related diseases [4][9] - There is a substantial unmet clinical need for muscle-targeted therapies, especially for patients with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) and those experiencing muscle loss due to aging or weight management [4][29] - The market for muscle-targeted therapies is projected to be large, with current SMA therapies generating approximately $4.5 billion in sales, indicating a significant opportunity for new treatments [4][33] Summary by Sections 1. ActR Pathway - The ActR pathway plays a crucial role in regulating muscle, blood, and bone through members of the TGFβ superfamily, including Myostatin [9] - Blocking the ActR pathway can effectively treat muscle atrophy by inhibiting Myostatin, which negatively regulates muscle growth [4][10] 2. Clinical Applications of ActR Pathway Blockade: Spinal Muscular Atrophy (SMA) - SMA is a genetic neuromuscular disease caused by mutations in the SMN1 gene, leading to severe muscle atrophy and respiratory failure [22][23] - Current SMA therapies primarily target SMN protein, but they have limitations, highlighting the need for combined therapies that also address muscle atrophy [25][29] 3. Clinical Applications of ActR Pathway Blockade: Weight Management - Muscle loss is a significant issue not only in genetic diseases but also in aging populations, with a 1% annual muscle loss in individuals over 60 [36] - The widespread use of GLP-1RA medications has been linked to 25-40% muscle loss in users, creating a demand for therapies that preserve or enhance muscle mass during weight management [36] 4. Targeted ActRII Pathway Drugs - Apitegromab, developed by Scholar Rock, is a monoclonal antibody targeting latent Myostatin, showing promising results in Phase 3 trials for SMA and expected to submit for FDA approval [38][39] - Taldefgrobep, developed by BIOHAVEN, targets active Myostatin but did not meet primary endpoints in its Phase 2 trial for SMA, although it showed trends of benefit in certain subgroups [57][62] - GYM329, developed by Roche, specifically targets latent Myostatin and is currently undergoing clinical trials for various indications, demonstrating potential for muscle mass increase [69]

Group 1: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market since the beginning of the year, while the A-share market remains volatile. Net inflows from southbound funds have approached 400 billion HKD year-to-date [1] - It is suggested that a reasonable allocation of Hong Kong stocks in Chinese equity assets should be between 40%-50%, indicating significant room for institutional investors, especially public funds, to increase their allocation to Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2: U.S. Market Strategy - Recent shifts in Trump's tariff policy suggest a potential easing, with indications of a "Trump Put" emerging. The Fed's stance may also be shifting towards a more accommodative policy, which could pave the way for future rate cuts [3] - Despite the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 remaining at relatively high valuations, there has been a noticeable contraction since mid-February. The market may have already priced in uncertainties related to Trump's policies, and a technical rebound in tech stocks is anticipated [3] - Mid-term concerns include the potential escalation of global trade tensions, the evolution of the U.S. macroeconomic fundamentals, and the upcoming fiscal X-date, which could disrupt the U.S. market [3] Group 3: Banking and Financial Products - The scale of China's banking wealth management market has been expanding, with various distribution channels evolving. The introduction of the "Commercial Bank Agency Sales Business Management Measures" marks a new era of regulation in bank sales [5] - The competition in the banking wealth management sector is expected to focus on both "channel supremacy" and "product supremacy" [5] Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - The liquidity landscape has undergone significant changes since the beginning of the year, attributed to the central bank's efforts to build a differentiated liquidity management system. A "tight balance" in the funding environment is expected to persist [7] - With a more relaxed central bank stance, the likelihood of long-term bond yields declining has improved, although short-term rates may remain volatile without substantial easing [7] Group 5: Fiscal Data and Economic Indicators - National fiscal revenue growth has declined, with major tax categories like VAT and corporate income tax showing negative growth, indicating ongoing pressure on corporate operations. Fiscal expenditures have been progressing rapidly, particularly in social security and employment [10] - The government fund revenue continues to decline significantly, while expenditures have seen slight growth, suggesting that policies may be gearing up for potential disturbances related to tariffs [10] Group 6: Emerging Industries - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to anticipated policy signals and a significant order concentration expected in the near term. The overlap with the nuclear power and military materials sectors is also noted [12] - In the energy storage sector, a recent 500 billion Euro fiscal spending bill in Germany, which includes 100 billion Euros for climate and transformation funds, is expected to catalyze a recovery cycle in the European energy storage market, benefiting domestic companies [13]

Clinical Trials and Efficacy - The overall response rate (ORR) for IMM01 in high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) was 64.7%, with a complete response (CR) rate of 33.3% as of December 31, 2024[5]. - In the II phase trial for chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML), the ORR was 72.7%, including a CR rate of 27.3%[5]. - For the II phase trial of IMM01 combined with pembrolizumab in relapsed/refractory classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL), the ORR was 69.7%, with a CR rate of 24.2%[6]. - A total of 33 patients were recruited for the IMM2510 I phase dose escalation study, showing promising anti-tumor activity with three confirmed partial responses (PR)[7]. - As of December 31, 2024, 74 patients were recruited for the Ib/II phase trial of IMM2510, indicating good safety and preliminary efficacy[7]. - The company initiated the IMM27M I phase dose escalation study, with initial data showing safety and good tolerability in heavily pre-treated advanced solid tumor patients[8]. - In the Ib phase trial of IMM0306 combined with lenalidomide for relapsed/refractory follicular lymphoma (FL), the overall response rate (ORR) was 90.9%[8]. - The Phase II clinical trial of IMM01 combined with Azacitidine for high-risk myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) has recruited 57 patients, achieving an overall response rate (ORR) of 64.7%[23]. - In patients treated for at least 6 months, the ORR increased to 89.7%, indicating enhanced efficacy with prolonged treatment duration[23]. - The Phase II trial for IMM01 combined with Azacitidine in chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) has recruited 24 patients, with an ORR of 72.7%[25]. - The company has observed promising anti-tumor activity and manageable safety in the ongoing clinical trials for various cancer treatments[45]. Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 741 million, a significant increase of RMB 737 million compared to RMB 4 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to upfront and recent payments received from the collaboration agreement with Axion Bio, Inc.[14]. - The company recorded total revenue of RMB 74.1 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 0.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily from licensing fees and collaboration development[58]. - The company reported a pre-tax loss of RMB 316,590,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024, an improvement from a loss of RMB 379,459,000 in the previous year[127]. - The total comprehensive loss for the year was RMB 316,600,000, compared to RMB 379,631,000 in the previous year, indicating a reduction in overall losses[127]. - The company’s basic and diluted loss per share improved to RMB 0.84 in 2024 from RMB 1.05 in 2023[127]. - The net loss for the year decreased from RMB 379.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, to RMB 316.6 million for the year ending December 31, 2024[67]. - Adjusted net loss for the year was RMB 254.98 million for 2024, compared to RMB 281.84 million for 2023[69]. Research and Development - Research and development expenses increased by 10.6% to RMB 322.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, up from RMB 291.9 million for the previous year, driven by increased preclinical and CMC expenses of RMB 43.6 million and salary-related costs due to team expansion of RMB 7.4 million[14]. - The company has a robust pipeline with over ten innovative drug candidates and 11 ongoing clinical projects, reflecting its commitment to advancing cancer immunotherapy[15]. - The company is preparing IND submissions for IMM01 for atherosclerosis treatment and anticipates IND approval for IMM72/IMC-003 by June 2025[11]. - The company has initiated dosing for the first patient in the systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) Phase II trial in October 2024, with recruitment for the second dose group expected to start in February 2025[11]. - The company received IND approval for the lupus nephritis (LN) Phase II trial in December 2024 and plans to submit an IND application to the FDA for SLE in the second half of 2025[11]. - The company has completed the IND pre-submission for IMM72/IMC-003 and anticipates receiving IND approval by June 2025[51]. Collaborations and Agreements - The company entered into a licensing and collaboration agreement with Axion Bio, Inc. on August 1, 2024, which includes potential payments of up to $50 million and additional milestone payments of up to $2.1 billion[12]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company has received upfront and recent payments totaling $15 million[13]. - The company has received IND approval for multiple clinical trials, including those for IMM2510 and IMM27M, indicating ongoing expansion of its clinical pipeline[7][8]. Corporate Governance and Compliance - The company is currently reviewing and enhancing its corporate governance practices to ensure compliance with the corporate governance code[89]. - The company has confirmed compliance with the code of conduct regarding securities trading by directors and employees during the reporting period[90]. - The board believes that the current structure of having the same individual serve as both Chairman and CEO is beneficial for leadership consistency and effective strategy execution[88]. Cash Management and Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 752.1 million as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 608.6 million as of December 31, 2023, primarily due to an increase in revenue of RMB 73.7 million[74]. - Current assets amounted to RMB 867.9 million as of December 31, 2024, including cash and cash equivalents of RMB 477.6 million[74]. - The company has unutilized tax losses amounting to RMB 1,811,969,000 as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 1,446,377,000 in 2023[150]. - The company has no significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries, associates, or joint ventures during the reporting period, aside from the aforementioned sale[72]. - The company has implemented internal control policies and procedures for cash management to optimize the use of excess cash[77]. Share Capital and Offerings - The company has issued a total of 407,307,695 shares, increasing from 374,157,695 shares, with H shares rising from 349,013,299 to 382,163,299 shares[92]. - The net proceeds from the global offering amounted to approximately HKD 251.3 million, after deducting underwriting commissions and related costs[93]. - The company plans to convert a total of 14,114,006 unlisted shares into H shares, pending approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission[91]. - The company has completed a placement agreement for 33,150,000 new H-shares at a price of HKD 7.05 per share, raising approximately HKD 229.7 million net of expenses[111].

Group 1: Overseas Policy and Tariffs - The article suggests that April may be a critical time for the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, with key events such as the results of the "America First Trade Policy Memorandum" and the introduction of "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - It is noted that "reciprocal tariffs" should be viewed differently from tariffs on China, as their primary goal is to pressure trade partners to lower tariffs on U.S. goods rather than imposing universal tariffs globally [1] - The article indicates that the 20% tariffs imposed on China are more a reflection of U.S. domestic politics, and that negotiations between the U.S. and China may become more substantive after April [1] Group 2: Deep Sea Technology - Deep sea technology has been included in the government work report for the first time, highlighting its importance and potential for development [3] - The investment landscape for deep sea technology is expected to benefit from supportive local policies, with a focus on the entire industry chain from core components to operational services [3][4] - The article emphasizes that the deep sea technology sector is positioned similarly to low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace, suggesting significant growth potential [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Cycles - The article discusses the shift in MLF operations to a multi-price bidding model, which may reduce funding costs for banks and stabilize market expectations [8][10] - It is anticipated that if economic momentum weakens due to tariffs and other factors, the central bank may consider further monetary easing measures [10] Group 4: Solid-State Battery Development - The Zhuhai government has released an action plan for solid-state battery development, setting clear timelines for industry growth and production targets [12][13] - The plan aims to establish a solid-state battery industry cluster by 2027 and achieve mass production by 2030, indicating strong governmental support for this sector [12] Group 5: Water Pricing Reform - Shenzhen is set to hold a hearing on water price reform, with proposed increases of 13%, which could alleviate cost pressures on local water supply companies [14] - The article suggests that successful price adjustments in major cities could catalyze similar reforms across the country, improving the long-term returns of the water supply industry [14] Group 6: Alcohol Industry Insights - The Spring Sugar Conference showed stable performance in the alcohol sector, with a narrowing decline in sales for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a potential bottoming out of the market [16] - The article recommends increasing investments in quality assets within the alcohol industry, considering the recovery potential and current valuations [16]