来源：中信建投证券研究 文|夏凡捷 李家俊 "生产强于需求、外需好于内需"的经济运行特征贯穿全年，同时货币政策维持宽松取向，银行间利率降 至2020年以来几乎最低水平。宏观偏弱+流动性宽松环境下，景气投资占优。近两周市场资金面有所分 化，宽基ETF资金流出超过5700亿元，而行业主题型ETF仍有1100亿元左右的资金流入。总体来说，近 期主动降温调控节奏，整体大基调仍然积极，建议以景气为纲，继续坚守"科技+资源品"双主线。科技 方面，AI半导体/新能源仍是当前的景气核心，同时AI应用/太空光伏/创新药等热点景气催化不断。资源 品方面，有色行业业绩预告情况较好，关注后续景气行情向能化和机械板块的传导扩散。行业重点关 注：半导体、AI、新能源、有色、化工、传媒、计算机、机械、医药等。 当前市场热度仍然高涨，资金面则有所分化 最近两周，股票型ETF出现约4500亿元的资金流出，结构性分化明显。宽基ETF资金流出超过5700亿 元，其中沪深300ETF资金流出超过3200亿元；而行业主题型ETF仍然有1100亿元左右的资金流入，其 中TMT、周期资源相关ETF资金流入分别约500亿元、400亿元。 本轮牛市自924以 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, China's innovative pharmaceutical industry reached a "golden moment" with 76 innovative drugs approved, over 80% of which were domestically developed, and total licensing transaction amounts exceeding $130 billion, marking a historical high [2][5] - The surge in innovative drugs reflects a significant shift from quantity to quality, with over one-third of the approved drugs targeting cancer treatment, and a notable presence of GLP-1 drugs for metabolic diseases [3][4] - The capital market responded positively, with the Hong Kong innovation drug index rising by 66.52%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, indicating strong market confidence in the sector [9] Group 1: Innovative Drug Approvals - A total of 76 innovative drugs were approved in 2025, significantly higher than the 48 approved in 2024, including 47 chemical drugs, 23 biological products, and 6 traditional Chinese medicines [2] - Among the approved chemical drugs, 80.85% were domestically developed, while 91.30% of biological products were also from domestic sources, showcasing the dominance of local innovation [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Drug Development - The oncology sector led the innovation with over 20 drugs, accounting for approximately one-third of the total, while metabolic diseases represented about 20% of the approvals, highlighting the diverse therapeutic areas being addressed [3] - The approval of first-in-class drugs in China, with 4 out of 11 being domestically developed, signifies a shift towards more innovative and effective treatments available to patients [4] Group 3: Licensing and International Collaboration - The total value of licensing transactions for Chinese innovative drugs surpassed $130 billion in 2025, with over 150 deals, reflecting a significant increase compared to 2024 [5][6] - Notable collaborations included a $10.8 billion deal between Innovent Biologics and Roche, and a $12.5 billion upfront payment from Pfizer to 3SBio, indicating a trend towards deeper strategic partnerships [5][6] Group 4: Capital Market Performance - The performance of the innovative drug sector in the capital market was robust, with the Hong Kong innovation drug index increasing by 66.52%, and the CS innovation drug index in A-shares rising by 19.34% [9] - The successful commercialization of leading biotech companies like BeiGene and Innovent Biologics demonstrates the growing profitability and market presence of Chinese innovative drug firms [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - The ongoing reforms in drug approval processes and supportive policies are expected to further enhance the development of innovative drugs in China, positioning the country as a key player in global pharmaceutical innovation [8][10] - Predictions indicate that the next five years will see an increase in the proportion of original innovative drugs, with a focus on balancing scientific exploration and commercial value [11][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index falling over 2% [1][14] - The total trading volume across all A-shares reached approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record and surpassing 3 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days [1][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64% at 4138.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.96% [1][14] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw a significant decline, with stocks like Aerospace Huanyu dropping over 18% and Shaoyang Hydraulic falling more than 13% [8][22] - The semiconductor sector also faced losses, with companies like Changguang Huaxin and Saiwei Microelectronics dropping over 10% [15] - Conversely, the insurance and banking sectors performed well, with Xinhua Insurance rising over 4% to reach a new historical high and China Life increasing by more than 3% [15] AI Medical Sector - The AI medical concept saw strong performance, with stocks such as Nossger and Hongbo Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit, and Di'an Diagnostics rising nearly 12% [2][16] - OpenAI's recent launch of ChatGPT Health aims to integrate multi-source health data, marking a significant advancement in AI's penetration into the healthcare sector [18] - The domestic AI medical application is accelerating, with Ant Group's AI medical product achieving over 15 million monthly active users, indicating a deepening integration of internet healthcare and AI [18] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug concept also gained traction, with stocks like Rongchang Bio and Puris reaching the daily limit of 20% [5][19] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) plans to implement precise policies to support innovative drugs, including establishing a market exclusivity system for pediatric and rare disease medications by 2026 [19] - Several new drugs have been approved for market release in early 2026, indicating a recovery trend in the biopharmaceutical sector [19] GEO Concept - The GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) concept became active, with Tianlong Group hitting the daily limit and stocks like Zhidema and Yidian Tianxia rising over 10% [20][21] - The GEO business of Yingu Media is still in the planning stage and has not yet formed a mature business model, indicating uncertainty in market recognition and profitability [21] Commercial Aerospace Sector Risks - The commercial aerospace sector is facing significant volatility, with companies like Aerospace Huanyu and Shaoyang Hydraulic issuing warnings about high speculative risks due to their stock prices deviating significantly from market trends [10][24] - Companies in this sector have reported that their products are primarily used in industries like metallurgy and hydropower, rather than directly serving the commercial aerospace sector [24][25]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a broad decline on January 13, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index falling over 2% [1] - The total trading volume across all A-shares reached approximately 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new historical record and surpassing 3 trillion yuan for three consecutive trading days [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64% at 4138.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.37% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.96% [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector saw significant declines, with stocks like Aerospace Huanyu dropping over 18% and Shaoyang Hydraulic falling more than 13% [8] - In contrast, the insurance and banking sectors performed well, with New China Life Insurance rising over 4% and China Life Insurance increasing by more than 3% [1] - The AI medical concept stocks were active, with companies like NuoSiGe and HongBo Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2][4] AI Medical Sector - The AI medical sector is experiencing rapid development, with OpenAI launching ChatGPT Health to integrate multi-source health data and provide personalized health recommendations [2][4] - Major domestic players like Ant Group and ByteDance are increasingly investing in AI medical applications, indicating a trend towards deeper integration of AI in healthcare [4] - Analysts predict that by 2025, AI medical applications will see significant advancements across various areas, including medical device functionality and clinical decision support [4] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Puris hitting the daily limit, and WuXi AppTec rising by 6% [4] - The National Medical Products Administration is set to implement policies to support innovative drugs, including data protection and market exclusivity for pediatric and rare disease medications [5] - The overall sentiment in the biopharmaceutical market is improving, with increased attention on AI drug development technologies and a resurgence in investment [5] GEO Concept - The GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) concept stocks are also active, with Tianlong Group and Yidian Tianxia seeing significant gains [6] - The market is recognizing the potential of GEO technology, which aims to enhance information presentation in generative AI engines [6] Commercial Aerospace Concerns - Companies in the commercial aerospace sector, such as Aerospace Huanyu and Shaoyang Hydraulic, have issued warnings about the volatility of their stock prices and the risks of speculative trading [9][10] - These companies have noted that their stock prices have significantly deviated from market trends and their fundamental business performance [10][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a strong surge, with several companies seeing significant stock price increases due to supportive regulatory measures from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) aimed at promoting innovative drug development [1] - The NMPA plans to implement precise policies by 2026, focusing on the establishment of a data protection system for drug trials and a market exclusivity system for pediatric and rare disease medications [1] - As of 2026, several new drugs have already been approved, including products from companies like Hengrui Medicine and Zai Lab, with expectations that around 20 major new drugs will receive approval in 2026, covering various therapeutic areas [1] Group 2 - According to Guojin Securities, since 2025, the heat of AI pharmaceutical technology has been rising, and the global innovative drug market remains robust, leading to increased attention in the domestic biopharmaceutical investment sector [2] - The investment strategy for the CXO industry in 2026 focuses on two main lines: prioritizing leading companies with technological advantages and high overseas business ratios to mitigate domestic market uncertainties [2] - The recovery in domestic biopharmaceutical investment is expected to benefit various CRO segments, indicating potential long-term investment value [2]

Group 1 - Public funds entering the market since 2026 are expected to exceed 45 billion yuan, driven by new stock ETFs and actively managed funds [1] - The A-share market has seen a "spring rally," with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points and significant trading volume, leading to notable gains for several funds [1] - Over half of the A-share companies have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a healthy growth trend [2] Group 2 - The price of 16GB memory modules has surged over 300% in the past year, driven by high demand from AI data centers and supply chain shortages [2] - SanDisk is implementing a 100% cash prepayment requirement for future storage chip allocations, indicating a shift in the semiconductor supply chain dynamics [2] - The establishment of China's first dedicated optical quantum computer manufacturing facility marks a significant step towards the industrialization of quantum technology [3][4] Group 3 - The approval of multiple innovative drugs in early 2026 highlights the growth of the domestic pharmaceutical industry, supported by favorable regulatory policies [4] - Companies like Kosin Technology and Hebang Bio are forecasting net losses for 2025 due to market demand fluctuations and asset impairment provisions [9][10] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has terminated the review of Zhuhai Saiwei's IPO application, reflecting regulatory scrutiny in the market [6] Group 4 - The auction of 416 million shares of Shanxi Bank has attracted significant attention, with the bank seeking to optimize its shareholder structure [7][8] - The resignation of Liu Peng from Zhongshun Jierou's executive positions indicates potential shifts in leadership strategy within the company [8] - The stock of Hongxun Technology has experienced significant volatility, with the company clarifying its business focus amid market speculation [10]

Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The 30th China Capital Market Forum highlighted the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan for advancing China's modernization and building a strong financial nation, with a focus on risk prevention, strong regulation, and high-quality development [1] - As of January 11, 2026, 108 A-share companies disclosed their 2025 earnings forecasts, with 60 companies showing positive expectations, resulting in a positive growth trend overall [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that A-share companies are expected to distribute a record cash dividend of 2.55 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting improved profitability and cash flow [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Innovations - Zai Lab announced the approval of its innovative product, a human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta injection, marking a significant milestone in China's domestic innovative drug development [3] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) plans to enhance support for innovative drugs, focusing on new mechanisms and targets to facilitate their approval and market entry [3] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a significant upward trend since December 17, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points, the highest since July 2015 [4] - The market's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, capital influx, and industry trends, with a notable increase in trading volume [5] - Public funds have seen substantial inflows, with over 450 billion yuan entering the market since the beginning of 2026, indicating a shift in investment strategies [6] Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - There is a growing enthusiasm among global investors for Chinese assets, driven by stable fundamentals, attractive valuations, and ongoing market liberalization [8] - Foreign capital is increasingly focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and global presence, particularly in the technology sector [8] Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The theme-based ETFs have gained significant traction, with a net inflow of 9.519 billion yuan and an average net value growth rate of 6.6% since the start of 2026 [9] - The public fund industry is moving towards differentiated product offerings, aiming to provide investors with more precise asset allocation tools [9]

Core Insights - The approval of Zeshuo Pharmaceutical's injection of human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta (Zesuning) marks a significant milestone as it becomes China's first innovative product approved for precise assessment post-surgery for differentiated thyroid cancer [1][2] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is experiencing robust growth, with multiple new drugs receiving approval since the beginning of 2026, including innovative drugs from companies like Hengrui Medicine and BeiGene [1][2] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) is enhancing support for innovative drugs, focusing on new mechanisms and targets, and aims to facilitate the "China first launch" of innovative drugs [3][4] Company Developments - Hengrui Medicine's innovative drug, the dual-specific antibody fusion protein Ruilafuzumab α injection, has been approved as the world's first anti-PD-L1/TGF-βRII dual-specificity antibody fusion protein for advanced gastric cancer [1][2] - BeiGene's innovative drug, Sotorasib tablets, has received conditional approval for treating chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma and is the first and only BCL2 inhibitor approved for treating mantle cell lymphoma in China [2] - The approval of multiple innovative drugs reflects a significant increase in the number of innovative drugs approved in China, with 76 approved in 2025, surpassing the 48 approved in 2024 [2] Industry Trends - Approximately 20 major new drugs are expected to receive approval in 2026, covering various therapeutic areas such as oncology, infectious diseases, rare diseases, autoimmune diseases, and neurological disorders [3] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is transitioning from a follower to a competitor, with many domestic companies accelerating the development and market entry of groundbreaking innovative drugs [2][3] - The NMPA is implementing reforms to enhance the drug approval process, including the introduction of a data protection system for drug trials and a market exclusivity system for pediatric and rare disease medications [4][5] Policy Support - The NMPA is set to provide comprehensive support across the entire chain of communication, clinical trials, registration, and review processes for innovative drugs [4] - The new medical insurance directory has been implemented, facilitating the inclusion of innovative drugs in hospitals, which alleviates initial payment challenges for high-value innovative drugs [4] - The NMPA is also optimizing the review process for urgently needed foreign drugs, encouraging global simultaneous research and application in China [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets for the pharmaceutical sector have shown a strong recovery at the beginning of 2026, marked by a "five consecutive days of gains" trend, driven by supportive policies, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest close, the A-share innovative drug ETF (159992) closed at 0.897 CNY per share, up 1.7%, with a daily trading volume of 845 million CNY, and a year-to-date increase of 7.94% [2]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (159570) closed at 0.553 HKD per share, up 0.91%, with a trading volume of 572 million HKD, and a year-to-date increase of 11.04% [4]. - Notable stocks such as Weikang Pharmaceutical, Frontier Biologics-U, and Hongbo Pharmaceutical achieved daily price limits, indicating strong market sentiment [2][4]. Group 2: Policy Support - The turnaround in market sentiment is attributed to a combination of policy support, payment innovations, and explosive growth in overseas markets [6]. - The new medical insurance directory and the first commercial insurance innovative drug directory were launched simultaneously, further supporting the innovative drug sector [6]. - Local policies have also been strengthened, with the Guangzhou government announcing plans to accelerate the strategic layout of innovative drugs, focusing on monoclonal antibodies, vaccines, and blood products [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Improvements - The approval process for innovative drugs has entered a fast track, with the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) enhancing support for innovative drugs with new mechanisms and targets [8]. - The NMPA has optimized the review and approval processes for urgently needed foreign drugs, aiming to shorten the listing cycle for innovative drugs [8]. - As of early 2026, several significant drugs have been approved, setting a positive tone for the industry's development [9]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Production - In 2025, a record 76 innovative drugs were approved for listing, with over one-third in the oncology treatment field, indicating a strong focus on cancer research [10]. - The majority of approved drugs were domestically developed, with a domestic rate of 85.53%, highlighting the strength of local innovation [12]. Group 5: Payment Innovations - A multi-tiered payment system has been established to address the "payment difficulty" that has historically hindered the development of innovative drugs in China [14]. - The new medical insurance directory includes 114 drugs, with an 88% success rate for inclusion, and 80% of innovative drugs entering the directory within two years of listing [16]. - The introduction of a commercial insurance directory for high-value innovative drugs enhances patient access and secures profitability for companies [16]. Group 6: International Expansion - The overseas market for Chinese innovative drugs has seen explosive growth, with total overseas authorization transaction amounts reaching 1356.55 billion USD in 2025, significantly up from 519 billion USD in 2024 [17]. - The focus on antibody drugs and ADCs has attracted attention from overseas pharmaceutical companies, with a shift towards later-stage clinical authorizations [17]. - The growth in overseas business not only provides substantial upfront payments but also benefits the entire industry chain, including contract research organizations (CROs) [17][18].

Policy Developments - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) emphasizes the need for comprehensive drug regulation reform to enhance drug safety and support high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry [2] Drug and Device Approvals - Zai Lab's new drug application for JAK inhibitor, Tofacitinib, for treating severe alopecia areata has been accepted by the NMPA, marking its second indication for this drug [4] - Tonghua Dongbao's insulin injection has received marketing approval in Nicaragua, expanding its overseas sales potential [5] - BeiGene's new indication application for its BCL2 inhibitor, Sotorasib, for treating mantle cell lymphoma has been accepted by the NMPA [6] - Yilian Biopharma's antibody-drug conjugate targeting VEGF has received clinical trial approval in the U.S. [7] - Zhengda Tianqing's combination therapy for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma has shown positive results in a Phase III trial, with plans for a market application in November 2024 [8] - Rongchang Biopharma's clinical trial application for its ADC molecule RC278 has been accepted by the NMPA [9][10] Capital Markets - Easternova Biotechnology has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on regenerative medical materials [12] - China National Pharmaceutical Group plans to acquire 100% of Jinsui Technology for 302 million yuan, enhancing its e-commerce operations in health products [13] Industry Developments - Suzhou Industrial Park has launched a plan to accelerate the development of the biopharmaceutical and health industry, focusing on innovation and enterprise growth [15] - Ganli Pharmaceutical has signed a cooperation agreement with the Brazilian Ministry of Health, becoming the first Chinese pharmaceutical company to enter Brazil's PDP program [16]