Core Insights - The agricultural sector, particularly the pig farming industry, is experiencing a downturn with significant profit declines due to falling pig prices and macroeconomic capacity adjustments [2][6][7] - Leading companies with low costs and strong cash flow are recommended for investment, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, Dekang Agriculture, and Shennong Group [2][6] - The feed industry shows continued growth, with major players like Haida Group benefiting from increased sales and improved profit margins [3] - The pet food sector is witnessing high growth in proprietary brands, although overall profits are under pressure due to declining export revenues [4] Pig Farming Industry - In Q3 2025, the pig farming sector's revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year to approximately 121.6 billion yuan, with net profit dropping by 70% to around 5.9 billion yuan [2] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs fell to 42 yuan per head, a decrease of about 13 yuan from Q2 2025 [2][7] - The industry is entering a phase of loss-driven capacity reduction, with supply pressures expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [6][7] Feed Industry - The feed sector's revenue grew by 13.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with a 14.2% increase in Q3 [3] - Major feed companies are seeing a rise in sales volume and market share, with Haida Group's feed exports increasing by approximately 24% [3] - The outlook for the feed industry remains positive, with expectations for continued growth in both domestic and international markets [3] Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector's revenue increased by 9.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, but net profit fell by 6.1% [4] - Domestic sales for leading brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are growing at around 40% [4] - Export revenues for pet snacks have declined, particularly in the U.S. market, where exports fell by 42% [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Vietnam Pig Cycle and Industry Integration Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the pig farming industry in Vietnam, highlighting its similarities and differences with China's pig farming sector [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Demand and Supply Dynamics**: Vietnam is experiencing a growth in market demand, with a shorter down cycle compared to China, which is facing a stable or declining market [1][2]. - **Drivers of Pig Cycle Reversal**: The reversal of the pig cycle in Vietnam is driven by multiple factors including losses, disease outbreaks, and policy impacts. Currently, the industry is in a recovery phase, utilizing vaccines to control diseases [1][3][4]. - **Industry Structure**: The Vietnamese pig farming industry is dominated by overseas investment enterprises, such as Charoen Pokphand Group, which have better cost control and financial strength compared to family farms. This leads to a faster exit of small and medium-sized producers from the market [1][5]. - **Comparison with China**: China's pig farming structure is more complex, with strong competition between leading enterprises and smallholders. However, mid-tier companies face significant challenges and cost control pressures [1][5]. - **Future Prospects for Major Players**: Companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong are highlighted as key players to watch, as they possess strong risk resilience and are expected to benefit from the cycle reversal [1][6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Muyuan has received approval for a Hong Kong IPO, laying a foundation for its overseas expansion, particularly in Vietnam. Collaborating with multinational companies like Charoen Pokphand will help Muyuan quickly adapt to the Vietnamese market [1][6]. - **Historical Context of Pig Cycles**: Vietnam has experienced three rounds of pig cycle reversals since 2007, each driven by unique factors such as disease impacts and market dynamics [3][4]. - **Resource Dependency**: Both Vietnam and China rely heavily on imported feed materials, with Vietnam importing approximately 40 million tons of rice and 4 million tons of corn annually [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Vietnamese pig farming industry, its dynamics, and the implications for major players in the market.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the market enters the winter consumption peak, with expectations for a gradual increase in the price center [11] - The beef cycle is expected to maintain its prosperity, with a decrease in cattle inventory and high calf prices indicating cautious expansion in the breeding sector [20] - The report highlights the acceleration of pig breeding losses and the strengthening logic of domestic pet products, recommending several companies in the pig farming and pet sectors [24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The average price of pigs in China as of November 28, 2025, is 11.20 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.42 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27 yuan/kg [11] - The average weight of pigs at market is 129.22 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.41 kg and a year-on-year increase of 2.49 kg [11] - The report notes that winter consumption favors larger pigs, leading to an increase in average weights at market [11] Weekly Views - The report states that pig and piglet prices are in a loss situation, which may accelerate the culling of breeding sows [24] - The feed sector is benefiting from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [24] - The pet sector is experiencing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [24] Market Performance (November 24-28) - The agricultural index outperformed the market by 0.17 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the agricultural index rising by 1.57% [26] - Key stocks leading the market include Jin Xin Nong (+12.60%), Yuan Fei Pet (+8.39%), and Xi Wang Food (+7.57%) [26] Price Tracking (November 24-28) - The average price of pigs is 11.19 yuan/kg, down 0.45 yuan/kg from the previous week; piglet prices are 19.19 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg [33] - The average wholesale price of beef is 66.39 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg [36] - Corn and soybean meal prices have increased, with corn futures at 2241.00 yuan/ton (up 2.66%) and soybean meal futures at 2459.00 yuan/ton (up 1.32%) [44]

Group 1 - The supply of live pigs remains relatively loose, and due to policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission, large pig enterprises are reducing the weight of their marketings, which increases short-term supply pressure and leads to a significant decline in pork prices during the month [1][2] - The industry is experiencing expanded losses, with the number of breeding sows in the country entering a de-stocking phase since July, and the de-stocking trend accelerating in October, which may further elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [1][2] - The cash flow of "low-cost+" pig enterprises is expected to improve significantly, continuously enhancing their intrinsic value [1][2] Group 2 - In October 2025, the total number of live pigs marketed by 15 listed pig enterprises reached 17.52 million heads, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 23%, primarily due to the release of capacity by leading pig enterprises [3] - The average marketing weight of pigs from nine listed enterprises decreased to 121 kg, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.9% and a month-on-month decline of 1.5% [3] - The number of piglets marketed in October 2025 was 1.44 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 144%, with the proportion of piglets in total marketings rising by 0.4 percentage points to 20% [3]

Group 1 - The company has set a target of over 4 million market pigs to be sold by 2025 [1] - The company's complete cost for market pigs in October 2025 is approximately 6.1 yuan per pound [1] - The development strategy and business plan for 2026 will be disclosed in the 2025 annual report [1]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs remains relatively loose in October, influenced by policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission, leading to a slight decrease in the average weight of pigs being sold, which increases short-term supply pressure and causes a notable decline in pork prices during the month [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side of live pigs is still relatively loose, and due to capacity regulation, group pig enterprises are reducing the weight of their sales, which adds short-term supply pressure and contributes to a significant decline in pork prices [2]. - The overall pork consumption is entering a seasonal peak but is weaker than market expectations, dragging down pork prices throughout the month [1][2]. Industry Performance - The industry is experiencing expanded losses, with the average loss per self-bred and purchased pig reaching 155 yuan and 281 yuan respectively [2]. - The number of breeding sows in the country has entered a phase of reduction, with a significant acceleration in the decline of breeding sow capacity observed in October, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2][3]. Company Recommendations - The company recommends focusing on pig enterprises with significant cost advantages and strong performance delivery capabilities, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) [1][2]. - Other companies to watch include Shennong Group, Dekang Agriculture, Dongrui Co., and COFCO Joycome [2]. Production and Sales Data - In October 2025, 15 listed pig enterprises collectively sold 17.52 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 23%, primarily due to the release of capacity from leading pig enterprises [3]. - The average weight of pigs sold by major listed companies continued to decline, with an average weight of 121 kg, down 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [3].

中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 中证鹏元公告【2025】549 号 1 维持"巨星转债"的信用等级为 AA-，评级展望为稳定；评级结果有 效期为 2025 年 11 月 25 日至"巨星转债"存续期。同时中证鹏元将 密切关注新任董事后续履职情况及公司治理情况、经营发展规划，并 持续跟踪以上事项对公司主体信用等级、评级展望以及"巨星转债" 信用等级可能产生的影响。 特此公告。 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司 二〇二五年十一月二十五日 中证鹏元关于关注乐山巨星农牧股份有限公司董事会换届 及董事长变动事项的公告 中证鹏元资信评估股份有限公司（以下简称"中证鹏元"）对乐 山巨星农牧股份有限公司（以下简称"巨星农牧"或"公司"）及其 发行的下述债券开展评级。除评级委托关系外，中证鹏元及评级从业 人员与公司不存在任何足以影响评级行为独立、客观、公正的关联关 系。 | 债券简称 | 上一次评级时间 | 上一次评级结果 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主体等级 | 债项等级 | 评级展望 | | 巨星转债 | 2025-5-21 | AA- | AA- | 稳定 | 根据公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The livestock farming industry is expected to experience a resonance of cycles and growth opportunities by 2026, with the swine sector reaching a critical point of de-stocking, leading to potential value recovery for cost-leading enterprises. The beef industry is projected to maintain a high prosperity cycle until 2027, while the poultry sector shows a clear upward price trend due to supply contraction [1]. Swine Sector - The swine sector is witnessing a significant slowdown in production capacity due to ongoing losses and declining pig prices, reaching a de-stocking critical point. Leading companies with low-cost advantages are expected to realize value release, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Dekang Agriculture. Smaller pig farming companies with growth potential are also suggested for attention [2]. Beef Sector - The beef sector is in a high prosperity cycle, with slow supply recovery and rising global beef prices driven by import policy restrictions. The main upward wave of the cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with recommendations for companies such as Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3]. Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the yellow chicken segment is experiencing capacity de-stocking due to continuous losses, although parent stock remains high. Companies with rapid capacity expansion and strong cost control, such as Lihua Agricultural Science and Technology, are favored. The white feather chicken segment is awaiting a cycle reversal, with recommendations for integrated leaders like Shennong Development and upstream chick leaders like Yisheng Livestock and Poultry [4]. Feed Sector - The feed sector emphasizes cost control and industry chain extension, focusing on companies with strong cost management capabilities and established overseas operations. Recommended companies include Haida Group and Bangji Technology [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health sector highlights the importance of research and innovation, recommending companies that can avoid price wars. Key focuses include product layout in the pet segment and breakthroughs in high-value pet pharmaceuticals. Recommended companies include Reap Bio, which benefits from the recovery of livestock prices, and companies like Kexin Bio, Plank Bio, and Zhongmu Bio with strong competitive advantages [6]. Planting Industry - The planting industry is expected to see grain prices stabilize, influenced by high production and inventory levels. Grain security remains a priority, with a shift from cyclical to growth valuations in the seed industry. Recommended companies include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with attention to seed companies like Kangnong Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech [7]. Pet Industry - The pet industry is thriving, driven by domestic demand and exports, with rapid growth of domestic brands. Key companies to watch include pet food brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., and pet supplies companies like Yuanfei Pet and Tianyuan Pet [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The agricultural sector has shown defensive characteristics amid recent market adjustments, with the agricultural index down 3.45%, ranking 9th among 31 primary industries [5][12] - The pig market is experiencing weak prices, with a stabilization around 11.50 CNY/kg, driven by seasonal demand expectations, but overall supply exceeds demand, limiting price increases [5][16] - October saw a significant reduction in pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months, indicating a potential for price increases in the second half of 2026 [6][18] - The white feather chicken market is facing stable chick prices but declining meat prices, with a notable decrease in the number of breeding chicks updated, indicating supply chain pressures [30][31] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector demonstrated resilience with a smaller adjustment compared to the broader market, as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 3.90% and 3.77% respectively [12] - Among agricultural sub-sectors, only aquaculture and seeds saw price increases, while others declined [15] Livestock Industry Tracking Pigs - Prices are fluctuating around 11.50 CNY/kg, with expectations of a demand increase due to seasonal factors, but slaughter rates remain low [16] - Losses in pig farming are increasing, with self-bred pigs losing an average of 136 CNY per head, and purchased piglets losing 235 CNY per head [17] - The Ministry of Agriculture reported a 1.1% decrease in breeding stock in October, with a target of reducing 1 million sows being halfway achieved [18][19] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices remain stable at 3.7 CNY per chick, with average profits around 0.8 CNY per chick, while meat prices have slightly decreased to 3.52 CNY per jin [30] - The number of breeding chicks updated has decreased significantly, with a 19.01% drop compared to the previous year, indicating potential supply issues [30][31] Planting Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have decreased to 5512 CNY/ton, down 148 CNY from the previous week [35] - Soybean prices have also fallen, with Brazilian soybeans at 3816 CNY/ton, down 7.4% [35] - Corn prices have shown an upward trend, reaching 2227 CNY/ton, an increase of 16 CNY from the previous week [37]

Core Viewpoint - The company has decided not to adjust the conversion price of its convertible bonds, despite triggering conditions for a downward adjustment due to stock price performance [2][9]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Basic Information - The company issued convertible bonds totaling 1 billion yuan (100 million shares) on April 25, 2022, with a face value of 100 yuan per bond and a maturity of 6 years [3]. - The bonds were listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on May 17, 2022, under the name "Juxing Convertible Bonds" and code "113648" [4]. Group 2: Conversion Price Adjustment - The initial conversion price was set at 25.24 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 25.21 yuan on August 8, 2023, following a profit distribution plan [5]. - A further adjustment occurred on June 17, 2025, lowering the conversion price to 25.04 yuan [6]. Group 3: Triggering of Downward Adjustment Clause - As of November 24, 2025, the company's stock price had been below 80% of the current conversion price for at least 15 out of the last 30 trading days, triggering the downward adjustment clause [2][8]. Group 4: Decision on Downward Adjustment - The company's board of directors held a meeting on November 24, 2025, and decided not to adjust the conversion price, citing confidence in the company's future and intrinsic value [9][12]. - The period for the next potential triggering of the conversion price adjustment will restart from the day after the board meeting [9][14].