证券研究报告 2026.01.11 2025 全年二手房库销水平维持稳定 李昊 分析员 张宇 分析员 徐曼迪 联系人 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070007 SFC CE Ref：BSI853 hao5.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080512070004 SFC CE Ref：AZB713 eric.zhang@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080124070018 mandi.xu@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 91 100 109 118 127 136 2025-01 2025-04 2025-07 2025-10 2026-01 沪深300 中金房地产 | 股票 | 股票 | 目标 | P/E (x) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 评级 | 价格 | | 2026E 2027E | | 滨江集团-A | 跑赢行业 | 14.25 | 10.2 | 9.4 | | 招商蛇口-A | 跑赢行业 | 12.20 | 17.9 | 16.4 | | 华润万象生活-H | 跑赢行业 | 48. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][24]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing a bottoming out phase, with positive policy factors accumulating. Recent central government directives emphasize stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a potential shift in policy support [2][24]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for some quality companies are at historical lows, making them attractive investment opportunities [2][24]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. First and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a 12.6% increase week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions are down 23.3% compared to the same period last year [10][12]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months is 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [18][24]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policy updates include an extension of loan financing for white-listed projects from 2 years to 5 years, aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][24]. - Local governments are implementing various supportive measures, such as tax relief for property taxes in Shanghai and talent attraction policies in Nanjing, which include living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [24][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2]. Core Views - The fundamentals of the real estate industry are still bottoming out, but positive policy factors are accumulating. Recent policies include extending loan financing for whitelist projects from 2 years to 5 years and various local government initiatives to support housing and talent retention [2][26]. - The report highlights that the real estate market has undergone a deep adjustment, and with recent central government calls to stabilize the market, there is an expectation for positive policy changes ahead. The current valuation levels for quality companies are attractive [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - For the week of January 3-9, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.784 million square meters, a decrease of 57.3% week-on-week. Among these, first and second-tier cities saw a 58.2% decline, while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 40.2% drop [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in January (up to January 9) decreased by 40.9% compared to the same period last year, with first and second-tier cities down 40.6% and third and fourth-tier cities down 44.2% [4][6]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.26 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.6%. However, year-on-year, January's cumulative transactions were down 23.3% compared to last year [10]. Inventory and Sales Ratio - In the week of January 3-9, 2026, 15 key cities launched 770,000 square meters of new homes, with total sales of 640,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.83. The average monthly inventory turnover for the last three months was 21.6 months, a decrease of 0.24 months [19]. Policy and News Tracking - Recent policies include the Shanghai announcement for tax relief on land use for eligible taxpayers, and Nanjing's new talent policies offering living subsidies and expanded housing rental support [26][29]. - The establishment of the first local government-guided REITs fund in Xiamen, with a target size of 5.5 billion over 10 years, aims to revitalize existing assets [26][30]. Company Dynamics - December sales data for major real estate companies showed significant declines, with China Overseas Development reporting 39.83 billion yuan (-1%), and CIFI Holdings down 58.3% to 1 billion yuan [35]. - Notable changes in shareholding include the reduction of shares by the controlling shareholder of Binhai Group, decreasing their stake to 60% [35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in December was 17,084 RMB/square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [3][8] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities was 13,016 RMB/square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [3][12] - The average rental price in 50 cities was 34.16 RMB/square meter/month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.62% [3][17] Market Performance - In December, new residential prices saw structural increases in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, while the overall market remains in a bottoming phase [5][6] - The second-hand housing market continues to experience high listing volumes, with significant month-on-month price declines [5] - The rental market is in a traditional off-season, with low demand and continued price declines in rental properties [5] Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing city-specific policies to control inventory and improve supply [4] - Recent policy changes include reducing the value-added tax on personal housing sales and easing purchase restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4] - The government aims to accelerate the construction of affordable housing and improve the housing provident fund system [4][6] Price Index Analysis - In December, 26 cities experienced an increase in new residential prices, while 68 cities saw declines [9] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 0.81% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.16% increase [8] - For second-hand properties, 100 cities reported a uniform price decline, with 27 cities experiencing declines exceeding 1% [13] Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with policies likely to be implemented to optimize restrictions in core cities and promote the acquisition of existing properties [6] - The report forecasts a 6.2% year-on-year decrease in new residential sales area in 2026, with price performance expected to remain differentiated [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in November 2025 Core Insights - The performance of leading real estate companies has declined significantly, with a 32.4% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue and a 7.2% month-on-month decline, primarily due to high base effects from the previous year [5][39] - The average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 42.42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities saw a 45.70% decline [10][11] - The total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 620.4 billion yuan in November 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 28.5% [7][41] Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry Performance in November 2025 - **Market Demand**: In November, the average transaction area for new residential properties in first-tier cities was 198.60 million m², down 42.42% year-on-year, while second-tier cities recorded 757.70 million m², down 45.70% [10][11] - **Sales Situation**: The sales revenue of monitored brand real estate companies decreased by 32.4% year-on-year and 7.2% month-on-month, with only a few companies like Greentown and China Resources showing month-on-month growth [5][39] - **Land Acquisition**: The total land acquisition cost for monitored brand real estate companies was 11.99 billion yuan, with a total land area of 534,000 m² acquired [6][38] 2. Key Company Performance - **Vanke**: In November, Vanke acquired 3 plots of land with a total acquisition cost of 9.2 billion yuan and a planned building area of 190,000 m² [46] - **Poly Developments**: Poly Developments acquired 2 plots of land for a total cost of 1.74 billion yuan, with a planned building area of 111,600 m² [58] - **Sales Performance**: Poly Developments reported a sales revenue of 18.02 billion yuan in November, down 24.9% year-on-year, while Vanke's sales revenue was 9.42 billion yuan, down 53.2% year-on-year [61][48] 3. Financing Situation - **Bond Financing**: The total bond financing in the real estate sector was 620.4 billion yuan, with credit bonds accounting for 262.2 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year [7][41] - **Financing Structure**: Asset-backed securities (ABS) financing reached 294.0 billion yuan, up 36% year-on-year, making up 47.4% of the total financing [7][41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry but indicates a cautious outlook due to ongoing adjustments in the market [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is still in a state of adjustment as of 2025, with 53 companies consistently ranking in the TOP100 for five consecutive years, showcasing strong operational capabilities and sustainable development potential [3][15]. - The report highlights that 30 companies have ranked in both sales and land acquisition TOP100 over the past two years, indicating their active role in the market [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong governance, financing, and investment capabilities, particularly those focusing on local markets and adapting to policy changes [3][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The report lists the top 10 companies by sales revenue for 2025, with Poly Developments leading at 253 billion, followed closely by Greentown China and China Overseas Land & Investment [4][10]. - The top 10 companies by sales area are also detailed, with Poly Developments again at the forefront, indicating a strong market presence [4][10]. Company Categories - Companies are categorized based on their sales performance and operational stability, with a distinction made between those exceeding 100 billion in sales and those below, highlighting the resilience of certain firms during market adjustments [15][18]. - The report identifies a group of state-owned enterprises and mixed-ownership companies that have maintained stable sales and investment levels, showcasing their adaptability in the current market [15][22]. Market Trends - The report anticipates that the average annual sales area for new residential properties will remain between 700-800 million square meters, with increasing urban differentiation [23]. - It suggests that the market is expected to stabilize after significant price corrections and supply-demand adjustments, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the latter half of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [23]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that the real estate sector is likely to see a shift towards high-quality development, with companies demonstrating operational resilience becoming key players in supporting the industry's stability [23].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 land market is characterized by "quality improvement and quantity reduction," with a decline in both transaction area and amount, but an increase in floor prices, indicating a focus on investment in first- and second-tier cities [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Transaction Data - In 2025, the total land supply area in sample cities nationwide is 117,242 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, with first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities supplying 1,475/25,315/90,452 million square meters, respectively, down by -27.6%/-6.4%/-19.2% [2]. - The total land transaction area in sample cities is 98,663 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 12.5%, with a transaction amount of 28,488 billion yuan, down 11.4%. The corresponding average transaction floor price is 2,887 yuan per square meter, an increase of 3.4% [2]. - The transaction areas for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities are 1,388/22,133/75,142 million square meters, with year-on-year changes of -25.9%/-5.7%/-14.1%, and transaction amounts of 3,880/10,927/13,681 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%/-1.9%/-17.4% [2]. Group 2: Premium Rates and Market Dynamics - The average premium rate for land in sample cities is 5.3%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities at 10.7%/6.2%/3.1%, showing increases of +3.8/+2.3/-0.6 percentage points [3]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have premium rates exceeding 10%, recorded at 15.3%/26.9%/25.4%/10.3% respectively [3]. - The land auction market saw a significant increase in premium rates at the beginning of the year due to various stimulating factors, but the rates have since declined as investment returned to rationality [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies of Key Enterprises - In 2025, 12 real estate companies exceeded 10 billion yuan in land acquisition, with 11 being state-owned enterprises, including major players like China Overseas Land & Investment and Poly Developments [4]. - The land acquisition intensity for key enterprises has increased, with the overall acquisition intensity for the top 100 real estate companies rising by 70.6% year-on-year, reaching 0.29 [4]. - Among these, Binjiang Group has the highest land acquisition intensity at 81.9% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Real Estate Product Power TOP 100 conference highlighted the industry's shift towards product quality and innovation, emphasizing the "Good House" strategy as a key focus for leading real estate companies [1][10][18]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference featured nearly a hundred industry professionals and experts discussing the positive trends in product power innovation within the real estate sector [3]. - The event marked the release of four major rankings related to product power, including the "TOP 100 Real Estate Companies" and the newly introduced "Good House" ranking [5][10]. Group 2: Product Power Rankings - Green City China topped the rankings, followed by Poly Developments and China Resources Land in second and third place, respectively [10]. - The rankings reflect a significant shift in the industry, with companies focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence as core dimensions of their product strategies [10][18]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Innovations - The "Good House" strategy is characterized by a focus on safety, comfort, green living, and smart technology, with an emphasis on creating a closed-loop system through quantifiable technical standards [10][18]. - The industry is transitioning from being mere "space providers" to "technology solution providers," enhancing competitive barriers through standardized technology and service ecosystems [10]. Group 4: Research and Development - The Product Power 100 working group has been conducting evaluations since 2018, continuously improving the assessment model to enhance its authority and relevance [5][12]. - The 2025 evaluations will focus on new product trends, including the "Good House" system, and will explore various hot topics such as "four generations of housing upgrades" and "community amenities" [12][18]. Group 5: Challenges and Solutions - The market is facing challenges where good products do not necessarily translate to good sales due to various pressures, including a cautious buyer sentiment and product homogeneity [24][25]. - To overcome these challenges, companies must deeply understand market dynamics, customer insights, and product refinement to create truly marketable "Good Houses" [26][30]. Group 6: Customer-Centric Approach - The evolving customer demands necessitate a shift from merely meeting physical housing needs to addressing emotional and cultural aspects of living spaces [65]. - Companies are encouraged to conduct in-depth customer research to identify core needs and integrate these insights into the entire development process [71]. Group 7: Future Outlook - The 2025 "Good House" policy by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is seen as a pivotal factor for the future of the real estate industry, with significant improvement potential in existing housing stock [18]. - The industry is expected to transition towards a system of competition that integrates product quality, customer research, and operational efficiency, paving the way for high-quality development in the housing market [35].

2026.01. 09 本文字数：2137，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 2025年的土地市场，两大关键词是规模缩量与点状高温。 中指研究院最新数据显示，2025年300城住宅用地成交规划建筑面积为6.2亿平方米，同比下降 13.5%，出让金2.3万亿元，同比下降10.6%。虽然整体规模缩量，但在上海、北京、杭州、成都等 城市，高总价、高单价、高溢价地块屡屡刷新。 头部房企尤其是央国企，在市场调整期逆势入场。去年拿地金额百强房企中，TOP10房企的拿地金 额占比达50.5%，TOP20房企拿地金额占比高达62.7%，相较上年分别提高9.1、7.8个百分 点，"面粉"资源正加速向少数房企聚集。 高总价、高单价地块频出 从城市整体层面看，去年上海共成交64宗宅地，其中37宗溢价成交；杭州共成交92宗宅地，68宗溢 价成交，其中33宗溢价率超30%；北京共成交40宗宅地，14宗溢价成交；深圳共成交12宗宅地，9 宗溢价成交；成都成交107宗宅地，42宗溢价成交。 截至2025年末，一二线城市的宅地出让金占300城的比例达57.0%，较2024年提升4.4个百分点。 其中，一线城市宅地出让金占比为1 ...

头部房企尤其是央国企，在市场调整期逆势入场。去年拿地金额百强房企中，TOP10房企的拿地金额占 比达50.5%，TOP20房企拿地金额占比高达62.7%，相较上年分别提高9.1、7.8个百分点，"面粉"资源正 加速向少数房企聚集。 高总价、高单价地块频出 土拍市场经历了"提质缩量"、点状高温的一年。 据中指研究院报告显示，2025年，300城各类用地出让金3.3万亿元，同比下降11.4%。其中，300城住宅 用地共成交6.2亿平方米，同比下降13.5%，降幅较2024年收窄9.2个百分点；300城住宅用地出让金2.3万 亿元，同比下降10.6%。 虽然整体规模有所下滑，但为了平衡住宅市场供求，各地纷纷推介稀缺"好地块"。 一个显见的数据是，2025年，300城推出的容积率在2.0以下的宅地占比达42.3%，较2024年提升7.7个百 分点，是近10年来的最高水平。这一变化背后，是各地为了响应好房子建设，加大了低容积率优质地块 的推出力度。 2025年的土地市场，两大关键词是规模缩量与点状高温。 中指研究院最新数据显示，2025年300城住宅用地成交规划建筑面积为6.2亿平方米，同比下降13.5%， 出让金2. ...