证券研究报告：商贸零售|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 近期研究报告 《11 月社零数据如何？》 - 2025.12.22 12 月社零数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 | 行业基本情况 | | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2470.34 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2584.65 | | 52 | 周最低 | 1877.67 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -8% -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 国家统计局发布最新社零数据，12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 45136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额 39654 亿元，增长 1.7%。2025 年，社会消费品零售总额 501202 亿元，比上 年增长 3.7%。其中，除汽车 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a significant boost in travel activity due to the "longest Spring Festival holiday in history" combined with the "5 days off and 15 days off" vacation trend, leading to increased bookings for flights, hotels, and group tours [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - Major travel products such as flights, hotels, and group tours are experiencing rising booking temperatures, with peak travel expected on the second and third days of the New Year [1] - Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan are leading regions in attracting tourists, with Guangdong's hotel bookings up 169% compared to last year, and specific cities like Qingyuan seeing a 342% increase [2][3] - The report highlights a trend towards local cultural experiences, with cities like Fuzhou and Quanzhou gaining popularity among travelers [2] Group 2: Popular Destinations - The top destinations for the Spring Festival include Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, each showcasing unique cultural offerings [3][4] - Hainan is experiencing a surge in travel interest, with bookings surpassing those of 2025, while Yunnan is emerging as a "dark horse" destination with significant increases in hotel bookings [5] - Northern destinations like Harbin remain popular for winter activities, with Harbin Ice and Snow World ranking among the top attractions [5] Group 3: Domestic Travel Patterns - There is a growing trend of travelers opting for hotels instead of staying with family during the Spring Festival, particularly in cities with high migrant worker populations [9] - Cities such as Ganzhou and Xinyang are seeing substantial increases in hotel bookings, with growth rates of 252% and 169% respectively [9] - Local tourism is on the rise, with a significant portion of travelers preferring to explore nearby attractions rather than traveling long distances [9] Group 4: International Travel - The demand for outbound travel is notably higher this year, with Southeast Asia being the preferred destination for many travelers due to its favorable conditions [10] - Popular international destinations include Bangkok, Singapore, and Kuala Lumpur, with long-haul travel to countries like Russia and Turkey also gaining traction [10]

2026.01. 27 本文字数：1745，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 乐琰 距离"史上最长春节假期"不足一个月，旅游市场正在升温。充裕假期下，游客们能更灵活地安排出游，9天 长假叠加"请5休15"的拼假模式带动出境游热度攀升，但在目的地方面2026年春节则有新变化。 日本游跌出热门榜单 春秋旅游副总经理周卫红透露，截至目前，春节假期出游预订人次同比已超去年，其中，春节出境游预订人 次同比去年增长近80%，春节入境游人次同比去年已翻倍。 值得注意的是，今年春节假期的出境游排位有明显变化，第一财经记者采访了解到，原本基本稳定在春节出 境游目的地前十名的日本跌出前十榜单，相对而言，泰国、新加坡等东南亚旅游目的地排名提升，而此前并 非大热目的地的土耳其则因为免签而成为春节出境游"黑马"。 不少旅行社和旅游平台反馈，大量赴日航班取消加之游客出行计划改变，就目前报名情况来看，2026年春 节赴日本的游客大幅减少。"这个现象已经持续了一段时间，我们目前基本没有什么能成团的春节日本游 了，即便有零星赴日的，大多也是商务或探亲，纯旅游的很少。而在往年，日本是春节出境游的热门目的地 之一，且游客在当地消费金额很高 ...

来源：环球网 科技赋能新春，数字点亮长安。1月26日（腊八节），"西安年·最中国——数享西安年"2026年西安市新 春文旅系列活动启动仪式暨XR场景、平台营销发布会在西安XR电影产业基地盛大开启，一场跨越虚 实、融合古今的新春盛宴正式拉开帷幕。 科技赋能，数享未来 由机器人"舞者"演绎的《数字律动》具象化表达了今年"西安年"的核心主旨——科技赋能，数享新年， 推动经典文旅IP在数字时代焕发全新魅力。 本次活动由西安市联动抖音生活服务、同程旅行、美团、蚂蚁集团等平台企业，全市XR企业、重点文 旅企业共同打造。 文旅焕新，新春启幕 "西安年·最中国——数享西安年"2026年西安市新春文旅系列活动自1月起，将持续至3月18日（农历正 月三十），通过打造"1+6+5+N"的丰富内容体系，为市民游客呈现一场"可观、可感、可沉浸、可带 走"的数字中国年。 ·"1"场启动仪式：作为系列活动开端，发出热情洋溢的新春邀约。 ·"6"大平台联动：深度联动抖音生活服务、同程旅行、美团、蚂蚁国际Alipay+、京东电器、唯品会等6 大平台，开展定制营销与消费补贴，通过诚意满满的"新春红包"助力四海宾朋畅游西安。 ·"5"类跨界场景： ...

Core Insights - The report by Tongcheng Travel indicates a significant increase in travel activity for the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by the longest holiday period in history and a trend of combining leave days for extended vacations [1] - The report highlights a shift in travel patterns, with a growing proportion of travelers opting for leisure and family visits, leading to a rise in "composite Spring Festival" experiences [1] Group 1: Travel Trends - The proportion of travelers during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to increase, approaching the numbers of those returning home for family reunions [1] - Multiple travel peaks are anticipated during the holiday, particularly from the second to the third day of the new year [1] Group 2: Regional Highlights - Guangdong Province has seen a 169% increase in hotel bookings compared to the previous year, with cities like Guangzhou and Qingyuan leading the way [2] - The top destinations for cultural experiences include Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, with unique local customs attracting significant tourist interest [3][4] Group 3: Popular Destinations - The top ten popular destinations for hotel bookings during the Spring Festival include major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, with Chongqing and Sanya also ranking high [6] - Hainan Province has experienced a 191% increase in hotel bookings, with Haikou and Sanya showing particularly strong demand [8] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Yunnan Province is emerging as a "dark horse" destination, with significant increases in hotel bookings in cities like Kunming and Dali [9][12] - The trend of "reverse Spring Festival" is noted, where young people bring their parents to urban areas for celebrations, leading to increased flight bookings from smaller airports to major cities [14] Group 5: International Travel - There is a notable increase in outbound travel demand, particularly to Southeast Asia, with destinations like Bangkok and Singapore being popular choices [15][18] - Non-first-tier cities are showing a growing interest in international travel, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing making the top fifteen list of outbound tourist sources [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the combination of the longest Spring Festival holiday and the "5 days off, 15 days on" leave trend is significantly boosting the travel market for the upcoming Spring Festival in 2026, with increasing booking trends for flights, hotels, and group tours [1] - The report predicts that the proportion of travelers during the Spring Festival will continue to rise, approaching the numbers of those returning home, driven by diverse travel needs such as leisure, family visits, and reunions [1] - The report highlights that there will be multiple travel peaks during the holiday, particularly from the second to the third day of the New Year, as users switch modes and embark on new journeys [1] Group 2 - Various regions are launching campaigns to attract tourists, with Guangdong Province leading with a 169% increase in hotel bookings compared to the previous year, and cities like Qingyuan and Chaozhou showing significant growth [2] - The report lists the top destinations for cultural experiences during the Spring Festival, with Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan being prominent for their unique local customs and events [3][4] - The report notes that the demand for cultural and intangible heritage tourism is rising, with cities like Fuzhou and Quanzhou gaining popularity among travelers [7] Group 3 - The report indicates that Hainan Province is experiencing a surge in travel interest, with hotel bookings increasing by 191% compared to the previous year, driven by longer stays and higher spending [8] - Yunnan Province is emerging as a "dark horse" destination, with significant increases in hotel bookings for cities like Kunming and Dali, reflecting a growing interest in less traditional tourist spots [9][12] - The report highlights a trend of travelers opting for local hotels instead of staying with family during the Spring Festival, with cities in provinces like Henan and Anhui seeing substantial increases in hotel bookings [13] Group 4 - The report notes a significant rise in "reverse reunion" travel, where young people bring their parents to major cities for the holiday, leading to increased flight bookings from smaller airports to cities like Beijing and Shanghai [14] - The demand for outbound travel is also increasing, with Southeast Asia remaining a top choice for Chinese travelers during the Spring Festival, and new destinations like Russia and Turkey seeing substantial growth in bookings [15][18] - The report emphasizes that non-first-tier cities are increasingly participating in outbound travel, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing making up a significant portion of the outbound tourist demographic [18]

Core Insights - The report by Tongcheng Travel indicates a significant increase in travel activity for the 2026 Spring Festival, driven by the longest holiday period in history and a trend of "5 days off, 15 days on" vacation planning [1] - The report highlights a shift in travel patterns, with a growing proportion of travelers opting for leisure and family visits, leading to a more diverse travel experience characterized by "segmented New Year" and "composite Spring Festival" [1] Travel Trends - The report shows that the proportion of travelers during the Spring Festival is expected to rise, gradually catching up with the returning home crowd [1] - Multiple travel peaks are anticipated during the holiday, particularly from the second to the third day of the New Year, as users switch modes and embark on new journeys [1] Regional Highlights - Guangdong province leads in hotel booking heat, with a 169% increase compared to the previous year, driven by unique regional customs and events [2] - Qingyuan City in Guangdong shows a remarkable 342% increase in hotel bookings, ranking sixth nationally [2] - Sichuan province, featuring events like the Zigong Lantern Festival, sees Chengdu ranked fourth in domestic flight bookings during the Spring Festival [4] Popular Destinations - The top ten destinations for domestic flight bookings during the Spring Festival include major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, with Fuzhou making its way into the list as a historical cultural city [5][6] - Hainan province experiences a significant rise in travel activity, with hotel bookings increasing by 191% compared to the previous year, indicating a trend towards longer stays and higher spending [7] - Yunnan province emerges as a "dark horse" destination, with hotel bookings in cities like Kunming and Dali showing substantial growth [8][10] Emerging Travel Patterns - The trend of staying in hotels rather than with family during the Spring Festival is gaining popularity, particularly in cities with a high number of migrant workers [12] - A notable "reverse New Year" trend is observed, where young people bring their parents from rural areas to urban centers for the holiday [13] International Travel Trends - The report indicates a surge in outbound travel demand, particularly to Southeast Asia, with destinations like Bangkok and Singapore being popular choices [14] - New visa-free countries like Russia and Turkey see significant increases in booking activity, with growth rates of over 113% and 248% respectively [16][17] - Midwestern cities in China are increasingly participating in outbound travel, with cities like Chengdu and Chongqing making the top 15 list of outbound tourist sources [17]

Core Insights - The report by Tongcheng Travel indicates that the combination of the "longest Spring Festival holiday in history" and the "5-day leave for 15-day vacation" trend is significantly boosting the activity in the cultural and tourism market for the upcoming Spring Festival in 2026 [1][4] - There is an increasing trend in travel bookings for flights, hotels, and group tours on the Tongcheng platform, continuing the upward trend observed during the New Year [1][4] Travel Trends - The Spring Festival is not only a time for family reunions but also represents another "super long golden week" after National Day, with a growing proportion of travelers expected to participate in leisure travel, family visits, and reunions [5] - The characteristics of "segmented New Year" and "composite Spring Festival" are becoming more pronounced, with multiple travel peaks expected during the holiday, particularly from the second to the third day of the New Year [5] Popular Destinations - According to Tongcheng data, the top five popular destinations for the Spring Festival are Guangdong, Fujian, Sichuan, Chongqing, and Jiangxi [2][5] - The report highlights that Southeast Asia remains the preferred overseas destination for Chinese travelers during the Spring Festival, with major cities like Bangkok, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Ho Chi Minh City, and Bali being the most sought-after [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, recommending leading companies in snacks and condiments [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in retail sales growth, with December's year-on-year growth at 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from November, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - The food and beverage sector shows positive signals, particularly for Moutai, which is expected to maintain stable pricing due to supply-side constraints and increasing demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates that service consumption will be the main growth driver for 2026, with an expected overall consumption growth rate of 5.1% [8]. Industry Size - The industry comprises 1,216 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 17,809.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,466.7 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.4%, 7.0%, and 27.3% respectively, while the relative performance is 3.4%, -7.1%, and 4.5% [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sectors, including: - Food and beverage: Emphasis on Moutai and other snack brands [9]. - Textile: Anticipation of a turnaround for Li Ning in 2026 [13][14]. - E-commerce: Positive outlook on Alibaba due to its cloud business growth potential [24]. - Agriculture: Continued recommendation of leading pig farming companies and attention to planting policy catalysts [30]. Specific Company Insights - Moutai is expected to see stable pricing and growth in demand, with a focus on core products [9]. - Li Ning is actively launching new products and expanding its retail presence, aiming for a rebound in 2026 [13][14]. - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to accelerate growth driven by AI advancements [24]. - The agricultural sector is advised to focus on leading pig farming companies and the implications of planting policies [30].

Core Insights - The Chinese internet advertising industry has transitioned from a phase of "incremental traffic acquisition" to a focus on "efficiency extraction from existing resources" [1][2] - The new rule emerging from this differentiation is that technology determines efficiency, efficiency drives revenue, and ecosystem shapes the landscape [2] Group 1: Advertising Revenue Performance - Alibaba's advertising revenue for Q3 2025 reached 789.27 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase and a slight 2.1% quarter-on-quarter growth, maintaining its leading position in the industry [5] - Pinduoduo's online marketing service revenue was 533.48 billion yuan, an 8% year-on-year increase but a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter decline, indicating a strategic focus on long-term ecosystem development [6][7] - Tencent's marketing service revenue grew by 21% to 362 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of its technology-driven approach [7][8] - JD.com's market and marketing revenue increased by 23.7% to 256.88 billion yuan, driven by the growth of its food delivery business and AI-enabled advertising solutions [10] - Bilibili's advertising revenue reached 25.7 billion yuan, with a 23% year-on-year growth, attributed to the maturation of its user base [11] Group 2: Challenges Faced by Mid-Tier Platforms - Baidu's online marketing revenue fell by 18.6% to 153 billion yuan, primarily due to budget cuts from advertisers and the restructuring of search scenarios by AI [12][14] - Zhihu's advertising revenue declined by 26.19%, reflecting a mismatch between its high-knowledge user base and consumer conversion needs [15] - Automotive media service revenue for Che168 dropped by 8.59%, as traditional advertising models struggle against the evolving strategies of new energy vehicle companies [16] Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The differentiation in advertising revenue among internet companies in Q3 2025 signifies a reconstruction of internet marketing value logic, focusing on traffic depth, transaction closure, and technology adaptation [16] - Platforms achieving growth typically exhibit a combination of extensive traffic, ecosystem closure, and deep integration of AI technology, while declining platforms often lack these comprehensive advantages [16] - The future of internet marketing will prioritize platforms that can achieve ecosystem synergy, embedded technology, and full-link value delivery, moving away from traditional single-channel models [16]