3Q25管理费用大幅低于该行预期，该行判断主要因SBC费用低于预期。销售费率同降4ppt至29.3%，公 司表示主要系营销提效。海外市场方面，经营层面巴西电商成交规模和订单数量3Q25同比增长。 3Q25广告收入同增14%(2QYoY+13%)，该行认为技术层面主要系全站推广与UAX(全自动投放)共同提 升投放转化效率，推动内外循环增长。拆分看：外循环主要受生活服务、内容消费行业等驱动;内循环 通过全站推广产品升级以提升商家营销投放意愿。电商方面：3Q25总GMV同增15%，其中泛货架GMV 占比超32%，增速超大盘;短视频电商GMV健康增长。公司表示3Q25电商活跃用户复购频次提升，粘性 增强。直播3Q25稳健同增2.5%。 AI战略持续迈进，技术落地驱动主业收入增长 1)AI多模态基础模型方面，可灵在3Q实现模型迭代、对B端的服务升级，季度内收入超3亿元(1/2Q为 1.5/2.5亿元)，公司预计可灵收入全年达1.4亿美元(8月指引全年1.25亿美元)。2)AI大模型对快手广告、 电商业务赋能加强，其中：广告方面，模型技术(尤其是OneRec应用，亦有生成式强化学习出价模型 G4RL协同提效)带来3Q25 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company has raised the Non-IFRS net profit forecast for 2025 by 3% to 20.6 billion yuan due to effective cost control, maintaining an outperform rating and a target price of 89 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 40% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, company reported revenue of 35.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with Non-IFRS net profit reaching 4.99 billion yuan, and GMV increasing by 15% to 385 billion yuan, aligning with expectations [1] - Advertising revenue in Q3 increased by 14% year-on-year, showing a sequential acceleration from 13% in Q2, driven by improved conversion efficiency from full-site promotion and UAX [2] Group 2: E-commerce Development - Total GMV in Q3 2025 grew by 15%, with over 32% of GMV coming from the general merchandise category, which outpaced the overall market growth; short video e-commerce also showed healthy growth [2] - The company noted an increase in the repurchase frequency of active e-commerce users, indicating enhanced user stickiness [2] Group 3: AI Strategy and Revenue Growth - In Q3, the AI multimodal foundational model achieved significant revenue growth, generating over 300 million yuan, with an annual revenue forecast of 140 million USD [3] - AI models have strengthened the company's advertising and e-commerce capabilities, contributing to a 4-5% increase in domestic advertising revenue in Q3, with AIGC advertising material consumption exceeding 3 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Cost Control and International Expansion - Management expenses in Q3 were significantly lower than expected, primarily due to lower SBC costs, with the sales expense ratio decreasing by 4 percentage points to 29.3% due to improved marketing efficiency [4] - In the overseas market, the e-commerce transaction scale and order quantity in Brazil showed year-on-year growth in Q3 [4]

Group 1 - The core point of this year's Double Eleven shopping festival is that it has become the longest in history, lasting 159 days, which is 4 days longer than last year, with major platforms averaging over 30 days of promotion [2][3] - During this year's Double Eleven, the total sales reached approximately 1.70 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, while the comprehensive e-commerce transaction volume grew by 12.3% [3][4] - The average daily sales during this year's Double Eleven were 462.6 billion yuan, indicating an 11% year-on-year decline, suggesting that the event has become less effective in stimulating consumer interest [4][8] Group 2 - The stagnation in the e-commerce market has led platforms to adopt strategies that may not be sustainable, as they attempt to maintain the appearance of growth [5] - The changing financial reporting metrics of major platforms, such as the shift from GMV to CMR and active buyer metrics, complicates the evaluation of their performance [7][8] - The lack of transparency regarding GMV growth in financial reports raises concerns about the competitive position of platforms like Taobao and Tmall [8][9] Group 3 - In response to limited GMV growth, platforms are increasing their take rates, which places additional financial pressure on merchants [9][10] - The introduction of new fees, such as a 0.6% technical service fee and full-site promotion costs, is aimed at increasing revenue from merchants [10][11] - Merchants are facing a complex fee structure that significantly reduces their profit margins, leading to dissatisfaction and potential exits from the platform [14][15][18] Group 4 - Other platforms, such as Xiaohongshu and Pinduoduo, are implementing measures to reduce costs for merchants, contrasting with Taobao's approach [26][27] - Alibaba's significant investments in AI and instant retail are driving the need for higher fees from merchants to support these initiatives [28][29][30] - The current strategy of increasing fees on merchants may lead to a long-term decline in merchant satisfaction and retention [30][31]

Core Insights - Alibaba's AI strategy has become increasingly clear after two years of rapid development in large model technology, with a focus on becoming a leading global AI service provider [8][11][17] - The company emphasizes the integration of AI with cloud computing, positioning large models as the next-generation operating system that will drive user needs through intelligent agents [12][20] Group 1: AI Strategy and Developments - Alibaba's CEO, Wu Yongming, highlighted "ASI" (Super Artificial Intelligence) as a core strategic focus for the next few years during the Cloud Summit [9][11] - The company aims to develop Tongyi Qianwen as the operating system for the AI era, facilitating interactions between users and software through large models [12] - Alibaba Cloud's new positioning is to become a global leader in full-stack AI services, with the launch of seven new large model technology products covering various fields [13][28] Group 2: Market Response and Financial Impact - Following the announcements at the Cloud Summit, Alibaba's stock surged by 9.16%, increasing its market value by nearly 300 billion HKD, reflecting renewed investor confidence [15][34] - The company has seen significant improvements in its revenue growth, with AI-driven initiatives contributing to a return to double-digit growth after years of stagnation [34] Group 3: Leadership and Vision - Wu Yongming's leadership has been pivotal in steering Alibaba towards AI, with a clear strategic shift to prioritize AI as the main focus of the company [20][30] - His background in technology and business has enabled him to effectively translate technical advancements into commercial success, positioning Alibaba as a competitive player in the global AI landscape [30][31] Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing AI revolution is expected to reshape infrastructure, software, and applications, with Alibaba poised to play a significant role in this transformation [36] - The company is committed to further investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, with plans to allocate 380 billion CNY over the next three years [27]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group has made significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure, achieving a record high capital expenditure of 38.6 billion yuan in Q1 FY2026, reflecting its commitment to AI development and strategic growth opportunities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Alibaba's cloud revenue grew by 26%, marking a three-year high, with AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters [1] - The company aims to focus on major consumer and AI + cloud strategies for long-term growth [1] Group 2: AI Model Development - Alibaba's AI model has achieved rapid updates, with the release of multiple new models, including the Qwen3-Coder and Wan2.2, which have gained global recognition in their respective fields [2] - The company has launched the Qwen-Image model, which quickly topped the Hugging Face model rankings [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Expansion - Alibaba has opened eight new AI and cloud data centers globally this year, as part of a broader plan to invest 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [3] - The global infrastructure layout of Alibaba Cloud will expand to 30 regions and 95 availability zones in the second half of the year [3] Group 4: AI Application Development - Various Alibaba platforms, including Gaode and DingTalk, are accelerating AI integration to enhance user and industry value [4] - Gaode has launched the world's first AI-native application based on maps, while DingTalk has introduced an AI-driven work information flow application [4] Group 5: E-commerce AI Tools - The "Full Site Promotion" AI tool has improved operational efficiency for merchants on Alibaba's platforms, with increasing penetration rates [5] - The launch of the RecGPT model has enhanced user engagement metrics, such as increased add-to-cart rates and longer session durations [5] - Alibaba is also expanding into hardware with the upcoming release of its self-developed AI glasses [5]

Core Insights - Alibaba Group's investment in artificial intelligence (AI) reached unprecedented levels in Q1 of fiscal year 2026, with capital expenditure in AI and cloud business hitting 38.6 billion yuan, marking a historical record [1] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, achieving the highest growth rate in three years, with AI-related product revenue showing particularly strong performance, marking eight consecutive quarters of triple-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The launch of the Tongyi AI model series and the Qwen-Image model demonstrates Alibaba's strong innovation pace and leadership in core areas of AI technology [1] Infrastructure Development - Alibaba is building a global AI computing network, having launched AI and cloud data centers in eight regions this year, including major cities in China and international markets such as Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Dubai, and Mexico [2] - By the second half of this year, Alibaba Cloud's global infrastructure is expected to expand to 30 regions and 95 availability zones [2] Industry Applications - Multiple platforms under Alibaba are undergoing deep transformations driven by AI, with significant upgrades announced for Gaode Map and DingTalk, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [2] - The introduction of the self-developed Quark AI glasses marks Alibaba's strategic expansion from software AI to hardware AI [2] International Market Position - According to Omdia's latest report, Alibaba Cloud was recognized as a "leader" in the AI cloud market, being the only Chinese tech company included [3] - The strategic partnership with SAP signifies a notable collaboration in the cloud and AI sectors, allowing Alibaba Cloud to support SAP customers in deploying core software systems [3]

Core Insights - Alibaba's Q1 FY2026 financial report highlights a record capital expenditure of 38.6 billion yuan in AI and cloud investments, demonstrating the company's commitment to AI development and its strategic opportunities in the sector [1] - The company's cloud revenue growth accelerated to 26%, marking a three-year high, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for eight consecutive quarters [1] Group 1: AI Model Development - Alibaba's AI model, Tongyi Qianwen, has achieved rapid updates, releasing several new models including Qwen3-Coder and Wan2.2, which have gained global recognition in their respective fields [2] - The company launched a new image generation model, Qwen-Image, which quickly topped the Hugging Face model rankings [2] - A strategic partnership with SAP was established, allowing Alibaba Cloud to support SAP's core software deployment and collaborate on AI upgrades for enterprise clients [2] Group 2: Infrastructure Expansion - Alibaba announced a three-year investment plan of 380 billion yuan to build AI and cloud hardware infrastructure, aiming to become a full-stack AI technology company [3] - The company has opened eight new AI and cloud data centers globally, expanding its infrastructure to 30 regions and 95 availability zones by the end of the year [3] - Alibaba Cloud was recognized as a "leader" in the AI cloud market by Omdia, being the only Chinese tech company included in the report [3] Group 3: AI Applications in Business - Various Alibaba platforms, including Gaode and DingTalk, are undergoing AI upgrades to enhance user and industry value [4] - Gaode launched the world's first AI-native application based on maps, aiming to integrate spatial intelligence into real-world scenarios [4] - DingTalk introduced the next-generation AI office application, "DingTalk ONE," which is driven by AI agents to explore new work application forms [4] - E-commerce tools like "Full Site Promotion" have improved merchant efficiency, with increasing adoption of AI-driven tools for marketing and product listing on Alibaba's international platform [4] Group 4: Hardware Development - Alibaba is extending its AI capabilities from software to hardware, with the upcoming launch of its self-developed AI glasses, Quark AI glasses, expected by the end of the year [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, marking its first coverage of the company [5][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes Alibaba's strategic focus on e-commerce and cloud services, with a clear management structure aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and market competitiveness [6][20]. - It highlights the expected recovery of growth momentum in Alibaba's core e-commerce business, driven by improved monetization strategies and a competitive edge in product offerings [36][42]. - The cloud business is positioned as a leader in the industry, benefiting from AI integration and a strong market presence, which is anticipated to drive revenue growth [53][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Focus on Cloud and E-commerce - Alibaba has transitioned from a diversified governance model to a strategic focus on core areas, particularly e-commerce and cloud services, with significant investments in AI infrastructure [14][20]. - The management structure has been streamlined to enhance focus on these two key business segments, with dedicated leadership for each [15][19]. 2. Core E-commerce Business Recovery - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a slowdown in competition, allowing Alibaba's Taobao and Tmall platforms to regain market share, achieving a GMV share of 48.4% during the 2025 618 shopping festival [39][40]. - The company is implementing strategies such as commission rebates and AI enhancements to support merchant growth and improve user engagement [46][48]. 3. Cloud Business Leadership - Alibaba Cloud maintains a leading position in the public cloud market, with a market share of approximately 25% in both IaaS and PaaS segments [62][65]. - The cloud division is expected to benefit from increased demand for AI services, with revenue growth projected at 23.1% to 25.0% from FY2026 to FY2028 [8][30]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Alibaba's revenue and net profit growth, with expected revenues of RMB 1,011,541.9 million in 2026 and net profits of RMB 145,092.4 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 11.5% [5][6]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025 are 13, 12, and 11 for the following years, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers in the e-commerce and cloud sectors [7][8].

Core Insights - Alibaba is undergoing significant organizational changes, merging Ele.me and Fliggy into its China e-commerce division to enhance its consumer platform strategy [1][2] - The company reported strong financial results for fiscal year 2025, with revenues reaching 996.347 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [1][2] - The shift towards a "big consumption platform" reflects a strategic upgrade aimed at optimizing business models and enhancing user experiences [1][9] Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025, Alibaba's revenue was 996.347 billion yuan, with a net profit of 125.976 billion yuan, marking a 77% year-on-year increase [1][2] - Alibaba Cloud experienced double-digit revenue growth, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, which saw triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [1][2] - The international digital commerce group's revenue grew by 29% year-on-year, indicating robust performance in cross-border business [1][2] Business Adjustments - The merger of Ele.me and Fliggy into the China e-commerce division is part of a broader strategy to create a more integrated consumer experience [1][3] - The company has exited non-core assets like Hema and Intime, focusing on improving operational efficiency across its internet platforms [2][8] - A significant reduction in the number of partners from 26 to 17 reflects a shift towards a younger and more focused leadership team [2][9] Market Trends - The rise of instant retail is highlighted as a key trend, with Ele.me's integration into Alibaba's e-commerce strategy expected to enhance its competitive edge in this space [3][4] - The concept of "big consumption" emphasizes the importance of efficiently meeting existing consumer demands rather than solely pursuing new market opportunities [10][11] - The integration of online and offline channels is seen as essential for capturing consumer spending, with a focus on creating a seamless shopping experience [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba Group's annual report for fiscal year 2025 highlights significant transformation achievements driven by strong AI demand, with cloud revenue surpassing double-digit growth and AI-related product revenue experiencing triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2][5]. Financial Performance - For fiscal year 2025 (April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025), Alibaba reported total revenue of 996.347 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 77% to 125.976 billion yuan [5][4]. Cloud Services and AI Integration - Alibaba Cloud served approximately 63% of China's A-share listed companies, with significant growth in user numbers for its AI model platform "Bailian" [6]. - AI products are rapidly penetrating traditional vertical industries, and the customer management revenue (CMR) for Taotian Group accelerated to a 6% year-on-year growth [6]. User Growth and Membership - The number of 88VIP members exceeded 50 million, maintaining a high retention rate, with active member proportions consistent with the previous fiscal year [6]. - The monthly active user count for Alibaba's flagship AI application, Quark, surpassed 200 million by the end of fiscal year 2025 [6]. Strategic Focus and AI Development - The annual letter to shareholders emphasized a "user-first" strategy and an "AI-driven" approach as key strategic priorities [9]. - Alibaba is focusing on foundational research and innovation in large models, having released over 200 open-source models and more than 100,000 derivative models, positioning itself as a leader in the open-source model space [9][10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - Alibaba is strategically positioned in the cloud computing market, being the largest cloud service provider in the Asia-Pacific region, and is accelerating the internationalization of its AI products [10]. - The company aims to leverage its talent, technology, and resources to capitalize on development opportunities, with a focus on building a second growth curve centered around "AI + Cloud" [10].