在苹果公司(AAPL.US)CEO蒂姆.库克本人买入了价值近300万美元的耐克(NKE.US)股票后，耐克股价在 周三的美股盘前交易中一度上涨超2%。 库克自2005年以来一直在耐克董事会任职，并且是该公司的首席独立董事，库克本人也时常穿着Nike联 名款潮鞋出席苹果发表会。根据周二发布的一份SEC监管文件，库克本人以每股58.97美元的价格购买 了50,000股耐克股票。 截至周二美股收盘，耐克股价收于57.340美元。 根据文件显示，截至12月22日，库克现在持有大约105,000股耐克股票，最新的买入举措可谓是"逢低增 持"耐克股票。多家财经媒体将这次库克的增持行为解读为对于耐克未来增长前景的强烈信心表达。 国际大行瑞银近日发布的一份2026年投资展望报告显示，该机构对于2026年运动服饰板块的投资策略展 望持显著乐观立场，预计全球市场需求将继续实现增长，特别是在美国、中国和欧洲等重要品牌运动型 服饰需求市场。 瑞银表示，2026年全球股票市场的零售板块将延续分化趋势，运动服饰和功能性品牌等软线零售领域或 将受益于势不可挡且席卷全球的健康消费大趋势，特别看好那些在高品质和运动功能性方面表现突出的 品牌— ...

Core Insights - The instant retail sector in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026 and reach 2 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by the dual forces of digital economy and consumer transformation [1] - JD Fashion's instant delivery service is experiencing explosive growth, becoming a key method for brands to engage in instant retail and for consumers to access trendy products [1] Group 1: Industry Growth and Trends - The Ministry of Commerce's report indicates that the instant retail market is set for significant expansion, with a focus on building a robust ecosystem for high-quality development [1] - JD Fashion's instant delivery service has onboarded over 1,000 merchants by the end of 2025, including major retail brands, and has seen a more than 150% year-on-year increase in store numbers [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - Major sports brands like Nike, Adidas, and Anta have reported over 200% year-on-year growth in sales through JD Fashion's instant delivery service, with some categories like underwear seeing a 500% increase [1] - During the Qixi Festival in 2025, the beauty and skincare category saw a 150% year-on-year increase in sales, with luxury brands experiencing growth rates exceeding 600% [2] Group 3: Seasonal Promotions and Consumer Engagement - JD Fashion's instant delivery service is capitalizing on seasonal events, offering significant discounts and promotions for products like beauty gift sets and sports apparel during holidays [2] - The service aims to address consumer pain points by ensuring product quality and timely delivery, enhancing the overall shopping experience [2]

Core Viewpoint - Huayuan Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Taobo (06110), highlighting its leading position in the domestic sports apparel distribution industry and its potential for new growth through brand expansion and strong partnerships with international brands [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY25/26 Q3, the total retail amount (including retail and wholesale) decreased by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2] - As of November 30, 2025, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores declined by 13.4% year-on-year and 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a slower pace of store closures anticipated for FY26 compared to FY25 [2] Group 2: Brand Partnerships and Market Strategy - Nike's Q2 FY26 revenue increased by 1% year-on-year (excluding currency fluctuations), exceeding market expectations, while the Greater China region experienced a 16% decline in revenue [3] - Nike plans to collaborate closely with distributors like Taobo to address challenges in the Greater China market through inventory management, targeted consumer selection, enhanced brand storytelling, and improved visual merchandising [3] - The company is deepening its collaboration with leading international brands such as Nike and Adidas, with new initiatives expected to drive performance growth [4] Group 3: New Brand Development - The opening of exclusive Adidas stores and the appointment of a new Nike CEO are expected to enhance brand support for third-party distributors, benefiting the company's future growth [4] - Recent introductions of new brands like Soar and Norr?na are anticipated to diversify the company's offerings and expand its customer base, creating new growth opportunities [4] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to be 1.287 billion, 1.479 billion, and 1.684 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.09%, 14.91%, and 13.88% [5]

Group 1: Power and Environmental Industry - The core viewpoint highlights the significant power supply shortage in the U.S. due to increased computing power investments, with OpenAI raising its investment scale to 250GW by 2033 and peak electricity demand expected to exceed 1000GW by 2030, up from approximately 820GW currently [2][5] - The report suggests that the power generation side will rely on gas power, nuclear power, energy storage, and SOFC as emergency measures, with a projected electricity gap of 182GW or 89GW depending on whether existing units are retired by 2030 [6] - It is anticipated that U.S. grid investments will increase significantly, with projections of reaching $30 billion in 2024 and $43.4 billion by 2027, creating export opportunities for domestic companies [7] Group 2: Home Appliance Industry - The report on Tabo (06110.HK) indicates a high single-digit decline in retail sales for Q3 FY25/26, aligning with expectations, and a reduction in store closures is anticipated for FY26 compared to FY25 [11][12] - Nike's revenue in the Greater China region has decreased by 16% year-on-year, prompting the company to collaborate closely with distributors like Tabo to address inventory issues and enhance brand image through targeted strategies [11][12] - The introduction of new brands such as Soar and NORRONA is expected to diversify Tabo's offerings and expand its customer base, potentially driving new revenue growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts express a significantly optimistic outlook for the global sports apparel sector by 2026, anticipating continued growth in market demand, particularly in key markets such as the US, China, and Europe [1][4]. Investment Strategy - The retail sector is expected to maintain a trend of differentiation, with sports apparel and functional brands benefiting from the global health consumption trend. Brands excelling in quality and functionality are favored, while investors should be cautious of macro pressures and brand execution risks [1][2]. - Specific investment opportunities within the softlines retail sector are concentrated in sports apparel and footwear, particularly for globally recognized brands with strong brand equity, innovation, and omnichannel execution capabilities, such as Nike, Under Armour, Adidas, and On Holding [2][7]. Consumer Sentiment - A UBS survey indicates a strong intent among consumers to purchase sports apparel in the next 12 months, particularly favoring high-quality products and brands with good performance, with Nike and Adidas expected to excel in these areas [1][3]. - The survey shows a 2.9% increase in softlines consumption intent compared to the previous year, with a significant acceleration of 535 basis points month-over-month. This indicates a positive shift in consumer sentiment towards softlines retail stocks [3]. Brand Recognition - Brand loyalty and recognition for sports brands are on the rise, with Nike and Adidas showing high consumer awareness globally, especially in China, where their brand recognition significantly outpaces competitors [4][5]. Key Stocks - UBS highlights specific stocks to watch, including Nike, which remains a leader in the industry with strong brand recognition and consumer loyalty. Adidas continues to perform well globally, particularly in Europe. Under Armour is viewed as a potential growth stock despite facing challenges, while Deckers Outdoor, On Holding, and Amer Sports are also noted as stocks with promising future price trends [7].

截至2025年底，京东时尚秒送累计入驻商家超千家，包括滔搏、安踏、李宁、鸿星尔克、波司登、特步等国内零售巨头、 服饰运动大牌；营业门店数量同比增长超150%，覆盖了包括服装、鞋靴、内衣、美妆、运动户外等多个核心品类，持续为 消费者提供更丰富、更便捷的即时时尚消费体验。 在数字经济与消费转型的双重驱动下，即时零售正用"分钟级履约"重新定义商业效率的天花板。根据商务部研究院发布的 《即时零售行业发展报告（2025）》，2026年我国即时零售规模将突破1万亿元，预计到2030年，将达到2万亿元。构建良 好生态，推动高质量发展将是即时零售行业的重要议题。京东时尚秒送在2025年全面加速服饰、运动、美妆等核心品类供 给布局，迎来爆发式增长，已成为品牌布局即时零售、消费者获取潮流商品的重要方式。 2025年，品牌商家也通过京东时尚秒送实现了销售新增量。年初至今，耐克、阿迪达斯、骆驼、安踏等运动户外品牌成交 额同比增长均超2倍，内衣品牌松山棉店成交额同比增长5倍；随着冬季保暖需求增加，自11月波司登入驻京东秒送以来， 其销售也呈现高增长态势。 除此以外，京东时尚秒送在重要节日期间增长也尤为显著。近年来，受送礼观念日常化、礼 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The third quarter retail sales declined significantly, and the company is awaiting the effects of Nike's adjustments in the Greater China region [4] - The company has a strong partnership with international brands like Nike and Adidas, which is expected to drive future growth [6] - The introduction of new brands is anticipated to diversify the company's offerings and expand its customer base [6] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 28,933.20 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.87% - In FY2025, revenue is expected to decline to 27,012.90 million RMB, reflecting a decrease of 6.64% - The net profit attributable to the parent company for FY2024 is forecasted at 2,213.00 million RMB, with a growth rate of 20.49% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2024 is estimated at 0.36 RMB, with a return on equity (ROE) of 22.47% [5] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a projected net profit of 1,287 million RMB in FY2026, with a slight growth of 0.09% [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to significant disruptions in offline retail, the profit forecast for Tmall (滔搏) has been slightly lowered, with expected net profits for FY2026-2028 being 1.22 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%, +9.6%, and +11.5% [1] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.2 to 3.5 HKD, down from the previous range of 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for FY2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q3 of FY2026, the total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year, with the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [3] - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels for offline stores, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [4] - Nike's Q2 FY2026 performance slightly exceeded previous guidance and market expectations, with revenue of 12.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the Greater China region continues to face significant pressure [4] - Adidas reported Q3 results that fell short of market expectations for revenue but exceeded expectations for operating profit, with a 12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the Adidas brand [5] Group 4 - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum for its main brand, Adidas, with expectations of double-digit growth for FY2025, while Nike's performance in FY2026 Q2 was better than previous guidance but faced challenges in the Greater China market [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market and opening a running brand collective store [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...