Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The spot market for shipping is showing signs of price increases in late June, and the futures market is experiencing upward fluctuations, especially in the near - month contracts. A 12 - 4 positive spread strategy is recommended to be held [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Shipping Rate Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2240, up 8.09% from the previous value of 2073. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is currently 1155, a 3.34% increase from 1118. Other routes like SCFI - West US, SCFIS - West US, SCFI - East US, and SCFI - Northwest Europe also show significant increases, with the SCFIS - Northwest Europe having the highest increase of 29.62% from 1252 to 1623 [2]. 3.2 Forward Contracts (EC) - **Price and Position Changes**: For forward contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., prices show mixed trends. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1932.0, down 0.85% from 1948.6. In terms of positions, EC2508's position has increased by 1367 to 45494, while EC2506's position has decreased by 535 to 7268 [2]. 3.3 Market News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6]. - **Export Data**: In May, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Exports to the US were 28.819 billion US dollars, a 34.5% year - on - year decrease with a larger decline than in April. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 14.8% and 12% respectively [6]. - **Sino - US Trade Talks**: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London on June 9. Both sides expressed that the talks were going well, and the international community hopes that the talks can resolve differences and strengthen cooperation [7]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: In late June, shipping companies are eager to raise prices. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23508 US dollars/FEU, and the high - end (75th percentile) transaction price was 27000 US dollars/FEU. Although the Far - East to Nordic route is not directly affected by Sino - US tariffs, market sentiment can push up freight rates due to potential capacity shortages [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upward. Near - month contracts (June and August) are more affected, with the August contract having greater elasticity, while more distant contracts follow fundamental logic [8][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates on the US - West route show signs of peaking, while the freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June due to supply - demand mismatch, but carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. - Some shipping companies announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and the average price in the second half of June is over 3000 US dollars/FEU, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [1][2][5]. - There is an expected price increase in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. Attention should be paid to the peak time of European route freight rates in 2025 and the subsequent downward slope of freight rates [6]. - The recommended trading strategies are that the main contract fluctuates, and for arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in June, and some companies' quotes for the second half of June are higher than those for the first half. For example, HPL's quote for the second - half - of - June shipments is 1835/2935, higher than 1635/2535 for the first - half - of - June shipments [1]. - Price increase letters: Some shipping companies, like MSC, announced price increase letters for the second half of June. MSC's price in the second - half - of - June price increase letter is 2340/3900, up from 1920/3200 in the first - half - of - June price increase letter [2]. II. Geopolitical and Supply - Demand Factors - Geopolitical factor: Israel's defense minister warned the Yemeni Houthi rebels that they would face maritime and air blockades if they did not stop attacking Israel [3]. - Supply - demand mismatch: In April and May, carriers withdrew capacity from the Trans - Pacific east - bound routes faster than during the pandemic due to expected decline in demand caused by Sino - US trade tariffs. Recently, with the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions on Chinese goods on August 11, demand on the Sino - US routes increased rapidly, leading to a significant increase in freight rates. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity [3]. III. Freight Rate and Capacity Analysis - Freight rates: The freight rates on the US - East and West routes increased significantly in June. The latest SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is 5606 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI Shanghai - US East freight rate is 6939 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). However, the US - West freight rates show signs of peaking [3]. - Capacity: The average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining three weeks of June is 361,000 TEU, up from 243,400 TEU in May and 326,400 TEU in July. The capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June decreased, with an average weekly capacity of about 280,600 TEU in the remaining three weeks of June [3][4]. IV. Contract and Trading Analysis - Contract valuation: If calculated based on the spot prices corresponding to the last three periods of SCFIS at 2500 US dollars/FEU, 3000 US dollars/FEU, and 3000 US dollars/FEU, the expected delivery and settlement price of the 06 contract is around 1990 points, which supports the valuation of the 06 contract [5]. - Trading strategy: The main contract fluctuates. For arbitrage, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, and go long on the 06 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. V. Future Outlook - Price increase expectation: It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for July and August in early June and early July. CMA's quote for July shipments on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is 2385/4345, about 1000 US dollars/FEU higher than that in the second half of June [6]. - Peak time: Historically, the Shanghai - European base port freight rates generally peaked around Week 34 in most years after 2017 (Week 34 in 2025 is from August 11 - 17). The peak time of the Shanghai - European route freight rates in 2025 is not clear [6].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-11 8月份是传统旺季且7月份目前统计运力相对较少，仍有涨价预期，关注2025年欧线运价见顶时间且后期运价下行 斜率。目前预计6月初以及7月初船司会继续对7月份以及8月份运价宣涨，CMA上海-鹿特丹 7月份船期报价 2385/4345（较6月下半月上涨1000美元/FEU左右），预计下周主要船司7月份涨价函将公布。参考历史，2017年之 后大部分年份上海-欧基港运价WEEK34周左右大致见顶（2025年第34周为8/11-8/17日所在周），2024年上海-欧基 美西运价有见顶迹象，关注马士基6月最后一周报价 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹25周价格1695/2830；HPL 6月份上半月船期报价1635/2535，6月下半月船 期报价1835/2935，7月上半月船期报价2635/4435。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1580/2640，6月下半月船期报价1940/3240；ONE上 海-鹿特丹 6月份上半月船期报价2381/2437，6月下半月船期报价2571/293 ...

明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/6/10 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | | EC主力收盘价 | 2042.100 | -19.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1351.9 | | +5.70↑ | | 期货盘面 | 690.20 EC2508-EC2510价差 | -31.70↓ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 496.50 | | -48.40↓ | | EC合约基差 | -419.29 | +23.50↑ | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 45494 | 1367↑ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1622.81 369.99↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | | 2,185.08 | | 466.94↑ | | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） 2240.35 167.64↑ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the latest data on shipping derivatives, including freight rate indices, contract prices, positions, and month spreads. It also analyzes the impact of Sino - US trade relations on the shipping market and provides a trading strategy of holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [2][5][8]. 3. Summary Based on Related Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Indices**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) both increased. The SCFI - US West had a significant increase of 27.19%, and the SCFIS - Northwest Europe soared by 29.62% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: All EC contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) showed positive growth, with the highest increase of 1.10% in EC2512 [5]. - **Positions**: Some contracts' positions decreased, such as EC2506 and EC2508, while others like EC2410 increased [5]. - **Month Spreads**: The 10 - 12 month spread decreased by 10.6, the 12 - 2 month spread decreased by 2.8, and the 12 - 4 month spread increased by 8.3 [5]. Trade - related News - **Tariff Adjustments**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [5]. - **Trade Frictions**: There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with disputes over compliance with agreements and plans for US sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The US negotiation team has internal differences, which complicate trade talks with China and Japan. A new round of Sino - US trade talks will be held in London on June 9 [7]. - **Chinese Official Visit**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will visit the UK from June 8 - 13 and hold the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US [7]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Shipping companies are eager to raise prices in late June. The market average transaction price in the first week of June was 23,500 $/FEU, and the high - end (75% percentile) was 27,000 $/FEU. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential capacity shortages can push up freight rates [8]. - **Futures Market**: The price increases in the spot market have stimulated the futures market to fluctuate upwards, especially for the near - month contracts of June and August [8]. Strategy - The report recommends holding the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

6月下半月价格坚挺，关注船司7月份涨价函情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹25周开出为1680/2800；HPL 6月份上半月船期报价1635/2535，6月下半月 船期报价2235/3535，7月上半月船期报价2635/4435。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1580/2640；ONE上海-鹿特丹 6月份上半月船期报 价2381/2437，6月下半月船期报价2831/2937；HMM上海-鹿特丹6月上半月船期报价1467/2504，6月下半月上海-鹿 特丹价格1717/3004。 Ocean Alliance：COSCO上海-鹿特丹 6月上半月船期报价2125/3225，6月下半月船期报价2625/4225；CMA上海- 鹿特丹 6月上半月船期报价1635/2845，6月下半月船期报价1835/3245，CMA上海-安特卫普7月份报价挂出 2385/4345；EMC 6月上半月船期报价2305/3260，6月下半月船期报价2555/3610；OOCL 6月下半月报价2200/3800. 部分船司宣布6月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates of the US route in June increased significantly due to the mismatch between supply and demand. The demand on the China-US route has rapidly increased, and the freight rates have soared under the background of the mismatch between supply and demand. The freight rates of the European route in June have a downward trend, and the Maersk's second-half-of-June quotation is relatively high, with a price increase expected in July. The 06 contract will gradually return to the "real" end trading as the delivery deadline approaches, and the 08 contract has a strong game between expectation and reality. It is recommended to conduct arbitrage operations. The main strategy is that the main contract fluctuates, and the arbitrage strategies are to go long on 08 and short on 10, and go long on 06 and short on 10 [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price - As of June 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 91,264 lots, and the single-day trading volume was 113,681 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1399.80, 1239.20, 1970.30, 2199.10, 1383.00, and 1570.10 respectively [6]. 3.2 Spot Price - On May 30, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1587.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 5172.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6243.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1252.82 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1718.11 points [6]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of May 30, 2025, a total of 34 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 513,200 TEU; 4 ships of over 17,000 + TEU were delivered, with a total of 94,864 TEU. From January to May, a total of 115 container ships were delivered, with a total of 903,900 TEU [6]. 3.4 Supply Chain - There was an attack on Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport by the Houthi armed forces, which may have an impact on the supply chain [3]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The demand on the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and the demand on the European route has a downward trend. The monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European route in June was about 268,200 TEU, and the weekly capacity in weeks 23/24/25/26 was 273,200/227,100/298,400/273,700 TEU, an increase of more than 20% compared with the same period last year [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has strong short - term price increase expectations as MSC announced a price increase for the second half of June [1][2][3] - The supply - demand mismatch has led to a significant increase in freight rates on the US routes in June. As carriers withdrew capacity from the trans - Pacific eastbound routes earlier and demand has now rapidly increased, prices have soared [2] - The capacity on European routes decreased in June, and many shipping companies announced price increases for the second half of June. The 06 contract will gradually return to "real - world" trading as the delivery deadline approaches [3] - There is still an expectation of price increases in August as it is a traditional peak season and the currently - counted capacity in July is relatively low. It is advisable to conduct arbitrage operations for the August contract [4] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of June 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 90,839.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 109,688.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1358.80, 1181.90, 1894.10, 2100.20, 1339.00, and 1539.30 respectively [5][6] 3.2 Spot Prices - On May 30, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1587.00 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price was 5172.00 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price was 6243.00 US dollars/FEU. On June 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1252.82 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1718.11 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - As of May 30, 2025, 34 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total of 513,200 TEU, and 4 ships of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total of 94,864 TEU. From January to May, a total of 115 container ships were delivered, with a total of 903,900 TEU [7] 3.4 Supply Chain No specific analysis content provided in the text, only figure descriptions. 3.5 Demand and European Economy No specific analysis content provided in the text, only figure descriptions.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC market shows a volatile trend with near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. - Due to the news of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the recovery of demand on the US route, airlines are trying to raise the freight rates on the European route in June. The 6 - month - end quotes from major companies indicate a willingness to increase prices [9]. - Some macro data this week show that the rush - shipping on the US route is less than expected. The change in the long - position logic of the main contract leads to a significant decline in the main - contract price, with the 6 - 8 spread and monthly spread narrowing. The price fluctuates under the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1118, up 0.92%. Rates on various routes such as SCFI - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe have also changed significantly [5]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc., their current values, previous values, and changes are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1834.8, up 1.48% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: Positions of different EC contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) and their changes are provided. For instance, the EC2506 position is currently 11037, down 1679 from the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The current values, previous values, and changes of monthly spreads (e.g., 10 - 12, 12 - 2) are given. For example, the 10 - 12 monthly spread is currently 728.9, down 9.7 from the previous value [5]. 3.2 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions, and the US plans more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **US - EU Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Court Decision**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed since Trump's second term, except for those on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum [7]. 3.3 Market Conditions - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on the US route, airlines are trying to raise European - route freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an upward trend [9]. - **Futures Market**: The main - contract price shows a volatile downward trend due to the change in the long - position logic and the influence of news about the US trade court's decision on Trump's trade policy [9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report analyzes the state of international maritime trade and port activity for 2023-2024, highlighting recovery trends, structural challenges, and new disruptions impacting the sector [4][10] - International shipping, which transports around 80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value, continues to face major disruptions despite some recovery signs [11][12] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index indicates persistent supply chain pressures, with significant fluctuations in maritime freight rates and reliability of transport services [10][19] Analysis of Main Variables in International Shipping - The shipping industry is influenced by various global phenomena, including financial crises, health crises, technological issues, geopolitical conflicts, and extreme natural events [13][14] - Geopolitical tensions and climate-related events, such as droughts affecting the Panama Canal, have led to disruptions in major shipping lanes [14][15] - The reliability of container shipping services has fluctuated, with significant delays and port congestion impacting international trade [21][22] Performance of Containerized Maritime Trade - Global containerized maritime trade has fluctuated considerably from 2020 to 2024 due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions [50] - By the end of 2023, regions like Asia and North America surpassed pre-pandemic trade levels, while Latin America and the Caribbean lagged behind [48] - Imports in Latin America have shown stronger recovery compared to exports, with some areas exceeding pre-pandemic levels [61] Ranking of Ports in Latin America and the Caribbean - The report provides insights into port performance, indicating that many ports have surpassed pre-pandemic activity levels, while others continue to struggle [11] - The East Coast of South America has shown notable growth in throughput, while the West Coast has experienced volatility and slower recovery [76][81] - Panama-Caribbean ports have consistently outperformed Panama-Pacific ports in terms of throughput [87][88] Final Considerations - The report concludes that the international maritime trade outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing logistical challenges and geopolitical conflicts [55] - The analysis emphasizes the need for stakeholders in the sector to adapt to the evolving global environment and enhance their capacity to respond to challenges [4][12]