证券研究报告 2月十大金股推荐 1 ※ 核心观点 我们认为当前仍处于市场流动性偏宽的环境中，叠加高频景气跟踪与上市公司业绩预告均显示基本面有结构性亮点， 因此继续看好权益市场延续震荡向上趋势。方向上，建议重点关注：一是内外需共振景气向上、成长预期较好的科技 制造板块（AI/半导体/存储/风电等）；二是受益于产品涨价预期的周期板块（有色金属/化工等）；三是业绩有望筑 底改善的行业（建材/免税等）；四是部分绩优红利资产（保险等）。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 备注：本篇报告数据统计截至2026/1/29 平安证券研究所 2026年1月30日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 证券代码 证券名称 申万一级行业 总市值 PE PB 推荐逻辑 （亿元人民币） (TTM) (MRQ) 300223.SZ 北京君正 电子 662 208.6 5.3 存储周期上行，L3智能驾驶催化汽车电子 603005.SH 晶方科技 电子 201 58.9 4.4 WLCSP先进封装领先企业，受益车规CIS需求扩张 688041.SH 海光信息 电子 6,073 256.6 27.7 国产算力领先企业，业绩持续增长可期 688615. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a trend of rising and then narrow fluctuations in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.47%. There are opportunities to explore in February as multiple brokerages have released their monthly investment portfolios covering various sectors [2]. Group 1: Stock Recommendations - Notable stocks receiving multiple recommendations include China Pacific Insurance, Zijin Mining, and Wanhua Chemical, each recommended by three brokerages. Other stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Beixin Building Materials, and Miao Yi Innovation received two recommendations [5]. - Miao Yi Innovation had the highest increase in January, with a rise of nearly 47%, closing at 314.88 yuan, while China Pacific Insurance experienced the largest decline, dropping over 5% to 89.37 yuan [5]. Group 2: Industry Preferences - Brokerages suggest that the spring market may see prolonged activity, with a focus on technology, consumer, and cyclical sectors. There is an expectation of a new market trend post-Spring Festival [7]. - Shenyin Wanguo believes that the spring market trend will continue, with a focus on cyclical sectors for alpha opportunities, while also suggesting a rotation towards bottom assets [7]. - Guotai Junan recommends a balanced growth strategy, focusing on technology, electric equipment, and software services, while also considering opportunities in the chemical industry due to rising raw material prices [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Donghai Securities highlights four main investment themes for February: maintaining focus on technology and domestic demand, early positioning in service consumption sectors, monitoring sectors with potential earnings improvements, and cyclical industries with expected profit recovery [10].

机构：信达国际 研究员：陈乐怡 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能公司首三季收入為398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為30.52億元人民幣，按年跌22.1%，單計第三季收入117.11 億元人民幣，按年微跌0.4%，跌 幅較上半年的10%收窄。海南離島免稅7 至9 月銷售額合計54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至6 月收窄1.6 個百分點，其中9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長3.4%，在同期低基數下錄得18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至11 月離島免稅 銷售均錄雙位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策利好，第四季收入料重 拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑海南自由貿易港自2025 年12 月18 日正式啟動全島封 關運作，免稅優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面向從海南飛往內地其 他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名海南居民在一年內有離島紀 錄，不限次數購買離島免稅商品，額度10 萬元人民幣，變相代購重臨，消費 ...

多家券商认为春季躁动的持续时间可能拉长，春节后市场或将迎来一波新的行情。 其中，兆易创新1月内涨幅最多，累计涨近47%，最新收盘价报314.88元；中国中免1月内跌幅最大，累计跌超5%，最新 收盘价报89.37元。 | STATE | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券 | 最新 | 总市值 | 1月月内 | 所属 | 获推荐 | 推荐 | | 简称 | 收盘价 (元) | (亿元) | 涨跌幅 | 行业 | 次数 | 券商 | | 中国太保 | 45.55 | 4093.97 | 8.69% | 美部 | 3 | 中泰证券 太平洋 | | | | | | | | 平安证券 | | 器等处,不 | 40.14 | 10509.07 | 16.45% | 材料 | 3 | 华泰证券 中国银河 | | | | | | | | 光大证券 | | 万华化学 | 87.97 | 2753.88 | 14.72% | 材料 | 3 | 中泰证券 光大证券 | | | | | | | | 太平洋 | | | | 第二回经 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - LVMH's 2025 financial report shows a decline in overall revenue and profit, but certain segments like Sephora and jewelry have shown resilience, prompting the company to adjust its strategy while awaiting market recovery [1][7]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for LVMH in 2025 was €80.807 billion, a 5% decrease from €84.683 billion in 2024 [3][7]. - Recurring operating profit fell by 9% to €17.755 billion, and net profit decreased by 13% to €10.88 billion [1][7]. Segment Performance - **Wines and Spirits**: Revenue decreased by 9% to €5.358 billion, with recurring operating profit down 25% to €1.016 billion [12]. - **Fashion and Leather Goods**: Revenue declined by 8% to €37.770 billion, with recurring operating profit down 13% to €13.209 billion [5][9]. - **Perfumes and Cosmetics**: Revenue slightly decreased by 3% to €8.174 billion, but recurring operating profit increased by 8% to €727 million [13]. - **Watches and Jewelry**: Revenue was €10.486 billion, with a minor decline in recurring operating profit to €1.514 billion [10]. - **Selective Retailing**: This segment saw a revenue increase of 0% to €18.348 billion, with a significant profit rise of 28% to €1.780 billion [14]. Positive Signals - Operating free cash flow grew by 8% to €11.33 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [6][17]. - Sephora's performance was highlighted, with a focus on expanding its retail network and enhancing customer loyalty [17]. Strategic Adjustments - LVMH is diversifying its portfolio to reduce reliance on the fashion and leather goods segment, emphasizing growth in beauty and selective retail [16][17]. - The acquisition of a 9% stake in Loro Piana for €1 billion reflects LVMH's commitment to high-end market segments [16]. Market Outlook - The management expresses caution regarding the 2026 market outlook, acknowledging ongoing challenges but maintaining confidence in the company's ability to navigate them [15][17].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.51%, reaching a new high since August 2021[9] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.13%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.72%[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.16%, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 4.77%[3] Company Highlights - Apple's quarterly revenue grew by 16% year-on-year, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations, with a 38% increase in revenue from China[14] - Microsoft reported a 39% growth in its cloud business, but its stock fell by 9.99% following the earnings report[9] - Semiconductor stocks faced pressure, with Horizon Robotics and Huahong Semiconductor both declining over 5%[9] Sector Performance - Real estate stocks surged, with Sunac China rising over 29% and Shimao Group increasing by over 23%[9] - Paper industry stocks performed well, with Nine Dragons Paper up over 9% and Sunshine Paper up over 7%[9] - Alcohol beverage stocks were active, with Zhenjiu Lidu rising over 12%[9] Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit widened in November, driven by a rebound in imports, while initial jobless claims showed a slight decline[12] - The Japanese yen depreciated to 153.19 against the U.S. dollar, benefiting export-oriented Japanese companies[12] - Copper prices surged by 11%, marking the largest intraday increase in over 17 years, driven by speculation in the metals market[12]

证券之星消息，1月30日旅游零售板块较上一交易日下跌3.17%，中国中免领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4117.95，下跌0.96%。深证成指报收于14205.89，下跌0.66%。旅游零售板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601888 | 中国中免 | | 89.37 | -3.17% | | 46.44万 | | 41.82亿 | 从资金流向上来看，当日旅游零售板块主力资金净流出5.66亿元，游资资金净流入2.47亿元，散户资金净 流入3.2亿元。旅游零售板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 名称 主力净流入 (元) 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) 游资净占比 散户净占比 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the Hang Seng Index [7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters was 39.862 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with net profit at 3.052 billion RMB, down 22.1%. However, the third quarter revenue showed a slight decline of only 0.4%, an improvement from the 10% drop in the first half of the year [2]. - The sales in Hainan's duty-free sector from July to September totaled 5.402 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, but the decline was less than the previous quarter. Notably, September saw a 3.4% year-on-year increase in sales, marking the first growth in 18 months [2]. - The upcoming peak travel season is expected to drive a recovery in revenue, with double-digit year-on-year growth anticipated in October and November due to new city duty-free store openings and favorable duty-free policies [2]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially commenced full island closure operations on December 18, 2025, expanding duty-free benefits to all travelers departing from Hainan. This policy change is expected to significantly boost consumer spending [3]. - The company has acquired DFS's Hong Kong and Macau businesses for over 3 billion RMB, which will enhance its store network in Greater China and create synergies in procurement, logistics, and customer management [4]. - The luxury goods market is showing signs of recovery, which positively impacts duty-free consumption. Sales for some luxury brands in Asia have stabilized, indicating improved consumer willingness to spend [5]. - Market forecasts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% for revenue and 26% for net profit from 2025 to 2027. The current valuation corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 35 times for 2026 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - First three quarters revenue: 39.862 billion RMB, down 7.3% YoY; net profit: 3.052 billion RMB, down 22.1% YoY [2]. - Third quarter revenue: 11.711 billion RMB, down 0.4% YoY, an improvement from earlier declines [2]. Market Dynamics - Hainan duty-free sales from July to September: 5.402 billion RMB, down 2.6% YoY, with September showing a 3.4% increase [2]. - Anticipated double-digit growth in October and November due to peak travel season and new store openings [2]. Strategic Developments - Acquisition of DFS's businesses enhances store network and operational synergies [4]. - Expansion of duty-free benefits under Hainan's new policies expected to boost consumer spending [3]. Industry Outlook - Signs of recovery in the luxury goods market positively influencing duty-free consumption [5]. - Projected CAGR of 12% for revenue and 26% for net profit from 2025 to 2027, with potential for valuation re-rating [6].

当前时点如何看消费顺周期？20260129 摘要 房地产市场：预计 2027 年接近底部，短期一线城市二手房成交量回升， 价格跌幅收窄，政策稳定预期，显示边际向好信号。关注未来超常规政 策如房贷结构性工具、公积金降息及城市更新货币化安置。 货币政策与流动性：央行维持低利率，定期存款到期或转向理财及权益 市场，活期存款增加，资金更易流入资本市场。地产板块持仓比例仅 0.4%，刷新历史新低，估值修复迅速。 财政政策与消费：财政支出倾斜社保民生等领域，多地发放消费券支撑 春节消费，1 月政府债同比多增，表明财政前置发力。2026 年一季度经 济量价预计整体提升。 通胀预期：春节临近及季节性因素致蔬菜、水果、白酒价格上涨，国际 金属价格上行推动 PPI 向 CPI 传导，预计 2026 年 CPI 中枢高于去年。 白酒板块持仓降至新低，有望迎来反弹。 消费品市场：大众品复苏节奏超前于白酒，连锁业态维持高景气，规模 效应提升利润率。调味品板块库存消化完毕，进入发货周期，餐饮供应 链复苏，经销商备货积极。 Q&A 当前如何看待消费顺周期的表现？ 当前消费顺周期的表现主要受到几个因素的影响。首先，从地产层面来看，我 们总结 ...