21世纪经济报道记者 黄子潇 深圳报道 近期，国际金融巨头密集披露财报。以美国四大银行、三大银行卡组织为代表的巨头在2025年整体交出 较好业绩，同期股价表现突出。 2025年，美国银行板块表现强势。花旗集团、摩根大通、富国银行、美国银行股价全年涨幅分别为 70.38%、37.27%、35.57%和28.04%，甚至超过不少美股科技巨头的同期表现。 欧洲银行表现更为亮眼，桑坦德银行、西班牙对外银行及德意志银行同期均实现股价翻倍。 记者注意到，目前内地市场缺主投海外银行的产品，公募的相关布局近似空白，这与布局全球科技的产 品丰富程度截然不同。不过，在港交所注册的基金中有一些相关产品，大多为国际资管机构推出。 国际大型银行密集披露财报 美国四大行一般指花旗集团、摩根大通、富国银行、美国银行。 近日，摩根大通、美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行相继披露2025年四季度和全年业绩。四家银行全年营 收分别为1824亿、1824亿、852亿和837亿美元，同比增长2.6%、6.8%、5.6%和1.7%；净利润方面，分 别实现570亿、305亿、143亿、213亿美元，同比分别下降2.4%、增长13.1%、增长12.8%和增长8 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing sell-off in software stocks has caused significant anxiety among tech investors, leading them to pay premiums for hedging tools to protect against further declines in stock prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Software stocks have experienced a continuous decline, with Goldman Sachs' software basket recording a drop for the seventh consecutive trading day, resulting in a year-to-date decline of 19% for 2026 [3]. - The broader tech sector has also been affected, with the Nasdaq 100 index down 1.4% year-to-date in 2026 [3]. - The implied volatility for the iShares expanded tech software sector ETF (IGV.US) has reached its highest point since the tariff turmoil in April of the previous year, driving up option premiums [3][11]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a clear aversion to software stocks among investors, as indicated by the soaring insurance costs for the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ.US), which have reached their highest level since March 2020 [3][11]. - Despite signs that the sell-off may be overdone, the turbulence caused by AI applications makes it extremely difficult to predict a bottom for the sector [4]. Group 3: Company-Specific Concerns - Major companies such as Microsoft (MSFT.US), Oracle (ORCL.US), Salesforce (CRM.US), and Palantir (PLTR.US) have all seen their stock prices decline by double digits this year due to investor concerns about AI tools disrupting their businesses [7]. - Adobe's stock, which has dropped 20% this year, is viewed by some investors as a potential indicator of the broader industry's outlook [11]. - The software sector has seen a net selling trend, with a historical low net exposure of 4.2% compared to 7% at the beginning of 2026 and a peak of 17.7% [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming earnings report from Salesforce on February 26 is seen as a critical test for the industry, with the potential to either halt the current decline or not reverse the trend [13]. - There is a growing need to discern which companies will perform well and which may face existential threats due to AI advancements [15].

智通财经APP注意到，软件股持续不断的抛售潮已令科技投资者倍感焦躁，以至于他们开始支付溢价购买对冲工具，以防股价再次大幅下挫。 这种担忧不无道理。周三软件股再次暴跌，高盛软件一篮子股票录得连续第七个交易日下跌，使其2026年年内跌幅达到19%。这场溃败波及了更广泛的科技 板块指标，拖累纳斯达克100指数在2026年迄今下跌了1.4%。 数据显示，这种不确定性导致针对Invesco QQQ Trust Series1ETF(QQQ.US)下跌10%的保险成本(相对于看涨押注)飙升至2020年3月以来的最高水平。同时， iShares扩展科技软件板块ETF(IGV.US)的引伸波幅(隐含波动率)处于去年4月关税动荡以来的最高点，推高了期权溢价。 尽管有迹象表明抛售已过度，但AI应用给该行业带来的震荡非常剧烈，以至于预测底部已成为一项极其困难的任务。 iShares软件ETF隐含波动率飙升 "问题是到底会跌到多低?"财富管理公司FBB Capital Partners研究主管迈克尔.贝利表示，"投资者厌恶软件股，这一点显而易见。" 这对行业巨头来说意味着一场残酷的清算，尤其是微软(MSFT.US)、甲骨文(ORCL ...

Market Overview - The three major indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.345%, the Nasdaq down 1.43%, and the S&P 500 down 0.84% [1] Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad rally, with notable increases including US Bancorp up 2.32%, Zions Bank up 2.25%, JPMorgan Chase up 2.18%, and Union Bank up 2.11%. Other banks like Alliance West Bank and Citigroup also saw gains above 1% [3] - However, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs faced declines, contrasting with the overall positive trend in the banking sector [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector continued to show weakness, with Qualcomm down 3.56%, Netflix down 3.41%, Nvidia down 2.84%, Microsoft down 2.87%, and META down 2.08%. Google and Amazon also experienced declines exceeding 1% [3] - Conversely, Tesla and Nvidia managed to post slight gains despite the overall sector downturn [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks opened lower and continued to decline, with a mid-session drop of 2.4% and a closing decrease of 0.94%. Notable declines included Bilibili down 4.21%, Tencent Holdings down 3.33%, Baidu down 2.5%, and Alibaba down 2.81%. Beike fell by 2.17% [3] - Xpeng Motors, however, saw a significant increase of 4.06%, while Li Auto dropped by 2.9% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices opened high and reversed strongly, closing up 6.19% at $4970.5 per ounce. The lowest price during the session was $4690.2, while the highest reached $5018.1 per ounce [3]

智通财经APP获悉，全球最大规模存储芯片巨头三星电子与SK海力士两大权重股所主导的韩国股市基准股指——Kospi韩国综合指数在经 历周一暴跌超5%之后，今日大举反弹近7%，以及经历上周五大幅下跌的美国存储产品领军者西部数据(WDC.US)与希捷(STX.US)股价携 手大举反弹——尤其是西部数据周一涨幅一度超10%完全覆盖上周五暴跌区间，可谓全面凸显出存储巨头们股价跟随贵金属单日暴跌乃 市场"错杀行为"。从周二亚太市场存储芯片/存储产品板块全线大反弹趋势来看，全球资金对于存储领域的看涨情绪仍然堪称狂热。 在HDD霸主西部数据公司公布强劲业绩与未来展望之后，国际大行瑞银(UBS)近日发布的研报显示，经营执行与行业景气度都在"超预期 兑现"，HDD(尤其是数据中心大容量近线 Nearline HDD)仍处于供应偏紧、且需求强劲的上行周期，但估值与市场情绪已把"好消息"定价 得非常彻底，且HDD两大寡头——希捷与西部数据的长期价格/估值均无法避免周期性均值回归属性。对于想博取基于存储领域的超额投 资收益的投资者们，瑞银暗示应更关注那些纯粹的存储芯片巨头，比如三大存储芯片原厂——三星、SK海力士以及美光科技。 因此瑞 ...

美东时间周一，在美股市场尚未完全走出贵金属抛售风暴带来的恐慌情绪之际，"存储四巨头"却集体迎来强劲涨势——闪迪、美光、希捷科技和西部数据 集体大幅收涨。 在这其中，NAND巨头闪迪更是以15.44%的惊人涨幅成为整个市场"最靓的仔"。 事实上，自上周五闪迪公布了强劲的业绩和展望报告后，就立即受到了华尔街的热捧。 美东时间周一，华尔街分析师们纷纷出手，大幅上调对闪迪的未来盈利和股价预期，其中伯恩斯坦甚至喊出了1000美元的目标价，相较于当前665美元的 股价，意味着还有超过50%的上涨空间。 闪迪股价在过去一年已经飙升十余倍 首先支撑华尔街信心的，就是闪迪拿出的坚实财报数据。 北京时间上周五，闪迪公布了一份亮瞎眼的财报：公司第二财季（截至1月2日）营收为 30.3 亿美元，环比增长 31%，高于市场预期的 26.4 亿美元。调整 后每股收益为6.20美元，几乎是市场普遍预期3.33美元的两倍。 按美国通用会计准则（GAAP）计算，公司净利润飙升至8.03亿美元，较去年同期的1.04亿美元增长672%；毛利率提升至51.1%，反映出更高的定价和有 利的产品组合；自由现金流同比增长超过1000%。 而公司对于第三财 ...

记者丨张嘉钰 吴斌 赖镇桃 美股存储板块走强，闪迪涨超12%，希捷科技涨超5%，西部数据涨超4%。消息面上， 闪迪 2026 财 年 第 二 季 度 营 收 达 30.3 亿 美 元 ， 同 比 增 长 61%； 净 利 润 为 8.03 亿 美 元 ， 同 比 增 长 672%。 花旗集团将闪迪目标价从490美元上调至750美元。 加密货币概念股普跌，Strategy跌超6%。甲骨文涨超3%，公司启动美元债发行计划。迪士尼 跌超8%，创11月以来最大盘中跌幅，公司Q1营收259.8亿美元，同比增5%。 中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.67%，小鹏汽车跌超10%，蔚来跌超5%，爱奇艺跌超 3%， 百度、 哔哩哔哩跌超1%。苏轩堂药业逆势大涨，涨超40%，叮咚买菜涨超7%。 大宗商品方面，贵金属持续调整，截至发稿，现货黄金跌2.43%，现货白银跌3.89%，沪银跌 超19%。据财联社报道，数据显示，黄金三十日波动率已攀升至44%以上，创2008年金融危机 以来最高。这一水平超过了比特币约39%的波动率。 编辑丨黎雨桐 2月2日，美股集体低开，截至23:24，三大指数转涨，道指涨0.71%，纳指涨0.72% ...

Core Insights - The recent decline in cryptocurrency appears different from past downturns, lacking major scandals or regulatory crackdowns, yet major exchanges are experiencing significant impacts [1][7] - Bitcoin has dropped over 35% since its peak last October, with exchanges like Coinbase, Gemini, and Bullish seeing stock price declines of 40% to 55% in the past three months due to plummeting trading volumes [1][6] - Analysts have significantly lowered their expectations for these exchanges, with projections indicating a potential 40% year-over-year decline in Coinbase's Q4 trading volume to $264 billion [1][6] Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly withdrawing from risk assets, including cryptocurrency stocks, due to concerns over rising costs in AI, geopolitical uncertainties, and a rotation of funds away from tech stocks [4] - Bitcoin's price fell nearly 11% in January, marking its fourth consecutive month of decline, the longest losing streak since 2018 [6] - The current market downturn is characterized by a lack of significant triggering events, unlike previous downturns that were marked by regulatory actions or industry failures [7][8] Trading Behavior - Market participants are not engaging in panic selling but are instead choosing to exit the market due to concerns about future shocks [8] - Retail interest in cryptocurrencies is waning, with many traders opting to hold rather than trade amid regulatory uncertainties [7][8] - Some larger exchanges are attempting to mitigate impacts by diversifying into areas like digital asset custody and stock trading, but the relief is limited [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market cycle may require an additional six to nine months for a noticeable recovery, with trading activity shrinking to levels comparable to previous downturns [6][7] - The cryptocurrency industry is facing a potential legislative resolution as representatives from the crypto and banking sectors are set to discuss a market structure bill in Washington [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate unchanged, leading to record highs in spot gold and silver prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - On January 28, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%, while upgrading its assessment of economic growth [5][6]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current interest rates until the end of Powell's term [2][5]. - Powell indicated that current data does not suggest a significantly restrictive policy and mentioned that no rate hikes are expected in the next meeting [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose, reflecting a robust expansion in economic activity and signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate [6]. - The Dow Jones increased by 12.19 points (0.02%) to 49,015.60, while the Nasdaq rose by 40.35 points (0.17%) to 23,857.45, and the S&P 500 slightly decreased by 0.57 points (-0.01%) to 6,978.03 [2][3]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Prices - On January 28, spot gold surged over 4.5%, reaching a new high of 5,413.805 USD/oz [3][8]. - By January 29, during the Asian trading session, both spot gold and COMEX gold prices surpassed 5,500 USD/oz [9][10]. - Spot silver also saw significant gains, breaking through 118 USD/oz, marking a new historical record [10].

另一方面，花旗集团也在1月21日将微软的目标价从690美元下调至660美元，同时维持"买入"评级。 花旗分析师表示，其分销商调查和合作伙伴核查显示，在微软2026财年第二季度业绩发布前，市场环境 呈现更为复杂的局面。该行预计Azure云服务在第二财季的表现将超出预期，但由于个人电脑(PC)市场 预测疲软，微软非Azure业务的业绩预估已被下调。 值得注意的是，此次调整是瑞穗在对大型软件股群体进行2025财年第四季度业绩预览时作出的。该行分 析师指出，渠道调研整体保持强劲，公共云数据依旧稳健，人工智能(AI)的采用势头非常强劲。 尽管基本面积极，但该行补充称，投资者对AI颠覆性影响的担忧日益加剧，已开始影响软件公司的估 值倍数。瑞穗表示，行业出现了多重估值压缩，这是其下调目标价的主要原因。 智通财经APP获悉，微软公司(MSFT.US)被分析师列为值得长期持有的最佳科技股之一。近日，瑞穗证 券将其对微软股票的目标价从640美元下调至620美元，但维持"跑赢大盘"评级。花旗也下调了目标价， 但仍维持"买入"评级。 ...