国泰海通晨报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：春节期间，特朗普关税被判定违法，以及美伊军事冲突风险升温对全球资产价 格带来扰动，原油与黄金均有所上涨。美国经济韧性仍存，通胀回落进展或将较为颠簸，部分联 储官员提及加息可能。未来仍需关注特朗普关税政策的不确定性扰动。 2、【策略研究】：中国经济工作的重心正转向内需主导，并作为首要任务，内需复苏、物价回升 与地产企稳会推动经济预期上修。目前内需板块预期与交易出清，相信价值也会有春天。 3、【固定收益研究】：经济复苏节奏延续温和，呵护债市偏多环境，但需关注海外风险偏好回升 带来的扰动。 4、【纺织服装研究】纺织服装业：我们认为①截至 2.12 日的美棉周度出口放量、②2.19 日发布的 美国农业展望论坛明确新棉季全球供需收紧基调、③近期美国与东南亚国家关税互惠政策等多重 积极边际变化夯实美棉筑底并逐步打开中长期向上空间的趋势，持续重点推荐百隆东方、关注相 关标的天虹国际集团。 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweix ...

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 24 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：美国高院驳回"特朗普关税"后的波折与推演 继美国国际贸易法院与联邦巡回上诉法院先后裁定"特朗普关税"违法后 （参见《法院裁决能阻止特朗普加征关税吗？》，2025/5/30），当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日（周五），美国最高法院判定特朗普依据《国际紧急经济 权力法》（IEEPA）征收的"对等关税"和"芬太尼关税"违法。如我们此前 预测，最高法院判决后，特朗普政府当日提出替代性关税政策，表示将依据 美国《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条在常规关税基础上对全球商品加征 10%的 关税，并很快次日在社交媒体 Truth Social 上表示将对部分国家关税上调至 15%，但未公布具体国家列表（参见《最高法院挑战"特朗普关税"后续如 何？》，2025/11/12）。然而，我们认为特朗普关税风波并不会由此平息，不 仅后续关税政策仍有变数，围绕已征收的大量关税返还的机制和体量也仍悬 而未决。IEEPA 关税被驳回彰显了美国"三权分立"体 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Spring Festival marks a turning point for the widespread adoption of AI among consumers, with applications evolving from Chat to Agent [1][2] - The competition among internet giants for AI traffic entry is intensifying, and the integration of multiple business lines along with AI empowerment may drive performance and valuation [1][2] - Recommended companies include Alibaba-W and Baidu Group-SW, which are expected to benefit from the continuous improvement of open-source model capabilities and the rapid growth of domestic AI chips [2][5] Group 2 - OpenAI's revenue is projected to exceed its previous target, with a potential valuation of $850 billion following a $100 billion funding round [3] - Google's Gemini3.1Pro has significantly improved its performance in abstract reasoning tests, surpassing competitors like GPT-5.2 and Claude Opus4.6 [3] - Domestic AI companies like Zhiyu and MiniMax have seen substantial stock price increases, reflecting market recognition of their new large models [4] Group 3 - The investment recommendation emphasizes the commercialization of AI and the expansion of application scenarios, with a focus on companies benefiting from IT spending in state-owned enterprises [5] - In the automotive and autonomous driving sectors, the approval of domestic L3-level pilot licenses is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced driving technologies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The robot concept sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth, driven by the visibility and popularity of robots showcased during the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, indicating a shift towards commercialization and public acceptance of robotics technology [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The robot concept sector (887755.WI) rose by 1.76% on February 23, with notable gains from ASMPT (5.27%) and Huahong Semiconductor (4.83%) [1]. - On February 20, despite a general market decline, robot stocks surged, with Yujian (21.4% increase) and Sutech (9.24% increase) leading the gains [1]. - E-commerce platforms experienced explosive growth in robot product sales, with Douyin reporting a 1680% increase in GMV and a 655% increase in order volume from February 16 to 18 [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The Spring Festival Gala featured advanced robotics, including Utree Technology's G1 and H2 humanoid robots performing complex stunts, showcasing the capabilities of modern robotics [2]. - The event marked a significant step for the industry, indicating a transition from laboratory development to mainstream visibility and application [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts from Guohai Securities highlighted the potential for humanoid robots to create a market space larger than that of automobiles, suggesting a pivotal investment opportunity as the industry evolves [4]. - Dongwu Securities noted that Tesla's Optimus robot is set for large-scale production in 2026, indicating a tightening supply chain and potential growth for leading domestic players like Utree and Zhiyuan [4]. Group 4: Company Highlights - Sutech announced a profit forecast of at least 60 million RMB for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly profit and signaling a new phase in its business development [3]. - Yujian has initiated mass production of its Atom humanoid robots, indicating a shift towards large-scale application in various scenarios [3]. Group 5: Stock Performance - Notable stocks in the robot sector include: - Tianqi Co. (57.56% increase) for its collaboration with Ubiquity in humanoid robot applications [5]. - Wuzhou New Spring (29.52% increase) for its success in developing domestic harmonic reducers [5]. - Green's Harmonic (26.17% increase) as a core supplier of robotic joint components [5].

宇树人形机器人G1展示握手动作 成为晚会最炫主角 RESOTH V . , 10 ) . art 11 1 90 r NE es 19 1 1115 0 · u 영권방법 중不少 1 TO B ct r 6 B p B 2月14日，机器人在2026山东省机器人春节晚会上表演。 中央广播电视总台2026年春节联欢晚会上，四家机器人企业同台竞技引发网友广泛讨论。不仅如此，总台春晚更化身超级"带货平台"，直接引爆消费市场。 在消费市场火爆的背后，人形机器人已经融入多个典型应用场景，成为马年春节期间的"顶流"。 应用场景丰富多彩 在上海的一家商业综合体内，春节前迎来了一批特殊的新助理——具身智能机器人。它们搭载了先进的语音交互和智能导航系统，既能根据消费者的需求， 精准列出详细的年货购物清单，还能提供一对一专属导购服务，全程陪伴市民采购并智能规划最优路线。除此之外，机器人还能直接帮助消费者提取年货、 帮忙下单、跟随购物等，全程"贴心陪伴"。 今年总台春晚，银河通用展示了机器人诸多应用能力。在北京颐和园、王府井，成都春熙路，苏州狮山文化广场，杭州湖滨路步行街等数十个城市的核心商 圈、重要地标及居民社区，由人形机器人运营 ...

股 票 研 究 汽车行业周报（2025/2/6-2025/2/13） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘一鸣(分析师) | 021-23154145 | liuyiming@gtht.com | S0880525040050 | | 卢雨涵(研究助理) | 010-83939828 | luyuhan@gtht.com | S0880125100008 | 速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab 下线 [Table_Industry] 汽车 本报告导读： 近一周，申万汽车指数上涨 2%，新能源整车指数相对持平，汽车零部件指数上涨 2%，商用车指数上涨 4%。速腾聚创 25 年大幅减亏，特斯拉首辆 Cybercab下线。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Report] 相关报告 汽车《全新理想 L9 Livis引领线控底盘新阶段》 2026.02.08 汽车《AI 应用重要阵地，Robotaxi 还看中国》 2026.02.04 汽车《特斯拉加速 AI 转型，将发布 ...

春节假期最后一天港股的亮眼表现，令机构们对A股马年"开门红"充满期待。 "2026年的春晚是AI含量浓度最高的一年，也是AI应用的重要分水岭与节点。"华鑫证券传媒新消费首席 分析师朱珠在研报中称，AI未来的竞争将更加激烈，各家将持续推出新模型、新产品，春节后的AI板 块有望持续演绎，传媒有望承接AI应用新红利。 机构普遍指出，春节后A股科技行情的驱动核心主要来自两方面：一是节后将迎来政策的密集落地，例 如"人工智能+"、数字经济发展规划等节后预期将加速推进；二是美股与港股的映射效应显著，春节期 间海外市场表现强势的科技板块，节后通常能带动A股相关标的走强。 此外，春节后短期市场风格往往向科技成长倾斜。据华金证券统计，春节后5或10个交易日内科技成长 行业走势相对占优。近10年内春节后5个交易日内涨幅进入前三次数最多的行业主要为计算机（5次）、 电子（4次）、通信（3次）、传媒（3次）等科技成长行业，春节后10个交易日内的涨幅榜也由科技成 长行业主导。 2月23日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数双双走强。截至收盘，恒生指数上涨2.53%，报27081.91点；恒生科 技指数涨3.34%，报5385.35点。港股科技股、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, SUTENG, has achieved a significant milestone by announcing its first quarterly profit, which has boosted investor confidence and is expected to lead to a reevaluation of the laser radar industry's value [2][8][24]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Market Reaction - On February 20, the company's stock price opened high and surged to HKD 39.8, reflecting a maximum increase of over 15%, indicating strong investor recognition of the company's performance [2]. - The CEO of SUTENG, Qiu Chunchao, stated that the fourth quarter would be a critical point for continued operational improvement, and the company has exceeded its breakeven expectations [2][4]. - The announcement of profitability is seen as a landmark event in the laser radar industry, which has historically struggled to transition from technological leadership to commercial success [2][8]. Group 2: Business Segments and Growth Drivers - As of November 2025, SUTENG has secured 144 models for global front-mounted production, with significant partnerships across major automotive brands [6]. - The company's robot business, particularly in lawn mowing robots, has seen explosive growth, achieving the highest global sales in 2025, with a total of 30.3 million units sold, marking an over 11-fold increase year-on-year [7]. - The robot business is now a core growth driver alongside the ADAS business, with its sales proportion rising from less than 5% in 2024 to nearly 50% in 2025 [7]. Group 3: Industry Context and Competitive Advantage - The laser radar industry has historically been evaluated based on technological advancement and future market potential, but SUTENG's confirmed profitability has broken this valuation cycle [8]. - The company is positioned at a critical juncture in the AI terminal ecosystem, where its unique product capabilities align with the growing demand in smart automotive and robotics applications [12][14]. - SUTENG's technological leadership, particularly in SPAD-SoC and VCSEL digital chip architecture, has created a significant competitive edge over rivals, enhancing its attractiveness to downstream customers [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Potential - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability growth, driven by its dual business model in automotive and robotics, with a projected order scale exceeding 2 million units [17]. - The market for laser radar in passenger vehicles is anticipated to double, with a penetration rate of 20.48% for new energy vehicles by 2025 [18]. - SUTENG's collaboration with leading robot companies and its focus on expanding into various verticals will further enhance its market position and profitability [18]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Sentiment - The company's current price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 9.20 is considered low compared to its potential, indicating that the market has not fully priced in its growth prospects [19]. - Major investment banks have issued "buy" or "hold" ratings for SUTENG, with target prices suggesting a potential increase of over 70% from current levels, reflecting confidence in the company's future [22]. - The recent stock price increase is viewed as a long-term recognition of the company's technological advantages and commercial potential, marking the beginning of a new phase of sustainable profitability [24][25].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 丙午马年A股即将开盘，历史数据显示，春节假期后主要股指涨多跌少。整体来看，券商对节后市场普 遍持乐观态度。 港股率先开盘 机器人、AI应用概念大涨 春节假期中，离岸人民币一度升至6.88，海外主要股指多数上涨。 21日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，他前一天宣布对输美商品征收的"全球进口关税"税率将从10%提高 到15%，"立即生效"。 国泰海通表示，"对等关税"占到美国关税收入的近60%，因此市场较关注对财政的影响。预期关税最终 会小幅下降2%—3%，并略微推升财政赤字率约0.1%—0.2%。 国联证券分析，理论上违法关税需要返还，但是最高法院并未明确规定返还流程，而且"一刀切"返还的 难度也较大，可能采取"一事一议"模式，由企业通过诉讼或主动申请争取部分返还，但整个过程可能更 为漫长且存在混乱性。从财政影响来看，如果关税全额退还(约1750亿美元)，将会进一步加剧美国财政 压力，造成美国长端利率的上行以及美元的贬值。 2月20日，港股马年率先开市，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均收跌。受央视春晚机器人"炸场"表演影响， 机器人概念股集体大涨，越 ...

Group 1 - The robotics sector in the Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance, with the robotics concept index rising by 1.76% as of the midday session on February 23 [1][2] - Notable stocks in the sector include ASMPT, which increased by 5.27%, and Huahong Semiconductor, which rose by 4.83% [1][2] - The previous trading day saw significant gains in robotics stocks, with Yujian closing up 21.4% and Sutech rising by 9.24% [3] Group 2 - The surge in the robotics sector is attributed to the prominent display of robots during the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, where several domestic robotics companies showcased their products [3][4] - The performances included advanced robotic capabilities, such as the first-ever robot Airflare and synchronized speech and facial movements [4] - The event has been interpreted as a significant step for the industry, moving from experimental phases to mainstream visibility, thus accelerating commercialization expectations [4] Group 3 - The Spring Festival Gala has led to a dramatic increase in robot product sales on e-commerce platforms, with Douyin reporting a 1680% year-on-year increase in GMV for robot products [5] - JD.com also experienced a surge in robot-related searches and orders, with a 300% increase in search volume and a 150% increase in order volume within two hours of the gala's broadcast [5] - The robotics industry is seeing positive developments, with companies like Sutech forecasting a net profit of at least 60 million RMB for Q4 2025, marking a new phase in their business development [5] Group 4 - Analysts from Guohai Securities highlight that the wave of electrification and intelligence in robotics is expected to open up broader market opportunities, suggesting a significant investment opportunity in the humanoid robotics sector [6] - Dongwu Securities notes that Tesla's Optimus is on track for mass production in 2026, indicating a narrowing supply chain focus on key components [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological iteration and cost reduction in the robotics sector, with specific attention to advancements in dexterous hands and lightweight materials [6]