Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

国铁上海局杭州站杭州东站值班站长顾焰燚：我们将动态跟踪旅客出行及增开列车情况，杭州东 站、杭州西站将适时与杭州站、杭州南站同步启动通宵运营模式。及时协调地方交通部门做好旅客接驳 运输工作，采取延长地铁运营服务时间、加大公交运力供给等多种方式，共同保障到达旅客接驳"最后 一公里"。 央广网北京2月2日消息（记者郭淼）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道，2026 年春运今天（2日）零点正式启动，交通部门全面提升运力，保障群众出行。 2026年春运今天开始，40天里跨区域人员流动将达95亿人次。国铁集团方面表示，自1月19日春运 火车票开始发售至昨天16时，已累计发售春运期间火车票6461万张。铁路部门加大客运能力投放。积极 挖掘运输潜力，在京广、京沪、沪昆、京哈等主要高铁干线通道增开夜间高铁。 春运期间，自驾出行仍将是主体方式，占比约八成。新能源车出行总量有望创历史同期新高，达 3.8亿辆次。交通部门在全国高速服务区会新增超过1万个充电枪，其中四分之一以上都为大功率。 全国民航预计春运期间日均保障航班19400班，同比增长5%。三亚凤凰国际机场T3航站楼昨天投入 试运行，保障进出海南岛旅客顺利出行。 ...

来源：光大证券微资讯 热点聚焦 HOT 1、沙特股市2月1日大幅下挫，沙特全指跌幅一度达到2.6%，创2025年6月中旬以来最大盘中跌幅。此 前，伊朗军方警告称，德黑兰可能对以色列发动打击。伊朗其他官员也称正在采取措施，为可能的袭击 做准备。2月1日，以军称对黎巴嫩南部发动打击。以美军方高层被曝周末密集会谈，讨论对伊朗打击行 动。另据报道，白宫下令美海军舰艇前往中东，市场对美国可能发动打击的担忧加剧。 2、2月2日7:20，现货白银延续跌势，日内跌幅扩大至10%，报76.89美元/盎司。现货黄金跌破4700美 元，日内跌3.33%。此前，白宫提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什担任下任美联储主席。美东时间上周五，因 担忧沃什的鹰派立场，贵金属获利抛压激增，金、银出现崩盘式跳水，现货白银盘中一度暴跌36%，现 货黄金最高跌超12%。现货铂金重挫17.59%。现货钯金重挫14.89%。 3、1月31日，美股三大指数集体收跌。道指1月累涨1.73%；纳指1月累涨0.95%；标普500指数1月累涨 1.37%。黄金、白银股大幅下挫，全球最大白银ETF--iShares Silver Trust跌28%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel rush is expected to reach a record high with 9.5 billion trips, prompting Air China to enhance capacity and services to meet diverse travel demands in Sichuan province [1][4]. Group 1: Travel Volume and Capacity - The Spring Festival travel period will start on February 2, 2026, lasting for 40 days, with a projected 9.5 billion trips, marking a historical peak in cross-regional population movement [1]. - Air China plans to operate 19,407 flights from Chengdu during the Spring Festival, an 11.2% increase year-on-year, averaging 485 flights per day [4]. Group 2: Route Optimization and Service Enhancements - Key routes with increased capacity include Chengdu to Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shanghai, with additional flights to warm destinations like Dali and winter tourism spots in Northeast China [4]. - Air China is optimizing its route layout, including adjustments to flights from Chengdu to Shanghai and adding new routes to Nanjing and other domestic and international destinations [4][11]. Group 3: Special Products and Promotions - Air China has launched various special products to cater to different travel needs, including the "Yifei Changyou Card" for senior travelers, offering unlimited travel options on domestic and international routes [11]. - The company is also promoting a limited edition "Phoenix Loyalty Night Reading Calendar" gift box, which includes travel discounts and commemorative items, available for purchase through the Air China app [11].

Major Events - Lanke Technology (06809) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 4, with an expected listing on February 9 [1] - Aixin Yuanzhi (00600) will conduct an IPO from January 30 to February 5, with an expected listing on February 10 [1] - Lexin Outdoor (02720) will conduct an IPO from January 31 to February 5, raising HKD 130 million from Horizon Capital and Huangshan Dejun [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (09980) sets the offer price at HKD 248 per share [1] - Zhonghui Biotech-B (02627) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for a trivalent influenza virus subunit vaccine [1] - Kangzheng Pharmaceutical (00867) received approval for the first and only targeted drug for vitiligo treatment in China [1] - Shishi Pharmaceutical Group (02005) received production registration for Propafenone Hydrochloride Injection from the National Medical Products Administration [1] - China Aluminum (02600) plans to jointly acquire 68.6% of Brazilian Aluminum from Rio Tinto and will initiate a mandatory offer [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) plans to transfer 100% equity of Inner Mongolia Xintai Coal [1] - Botai Car Union (02889) plans to collaborate with Ping An Property & Casualty to reconstruct the smart travel insurance ecosystem [1] - Jin Jing New Energy (01783) signed a strategic framework agreement with Tianqi Grand for lithium battery recycling and precious metal extraction [1] - Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Holdings (01396) subsidiary Hongce Data introduces Fudian Capital as a strategic investor for 40% equity [1] - China Mobile (00941), China Unicom (00762), and China Telecom (00728) will adjust the applicable scope of value-added tax for telecom services [1] Operating Performance - BYD Company (01211) sold approximately 210,000 new energy vehicles in January [2] - Geely Automobile (00175) reported total vehicle sales of 270,200 units in January, a year-on-year increase of about 1% [2] - Chery Automobile (09973) saw total sales of 191,500 vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of about 10.7% [2] - Seres (09927) reported total vehicle sales of 45,900 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) sold approximately 90,300 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 11.59% [2] - Li Auto-W (02015) delivered 27,668 new vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5% [2] - NIO-SW (09866) delivered 27,182 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 96.1% [2] - GAC Group (02238) reported vehicle sales of 116,600 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [2] - Great Wall Motors (02333) released a preliminary report indicating a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.912 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.71% [2] - Shandong Gold (01787) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 56% to 66% [2] Earnings Forecast - SF Express (09699) expects a year-on-year profit increase of no less than 80% for 2025 [3] - China International Capital Corporation (03908) anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 85% [3] - China Shenhua (01088) expects a year-on-year decline in net profit for 2025 [3] - Datang Power (00991) anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.8 billion to 7.8 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 51% to 73% [3] - China Southern Airlines (01055) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 800 million to 1 billion yuan for 2025, turning a profit [3] - Air China (00753) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - GAC Group (02238) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - Ansteel (00347) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 4.077 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year narrowing of 42.75% [3] - Junshi Biosciences (01877) warns of a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 873 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 31.85% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Views - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is advised to focus on smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but major airlines like China Southern Airlines and Air China are expected to turn profitable in 2025 [4]. - The shipping sector shows a significant increase in dry bulk shipping index (BDI) by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance in the transportation sector [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the SCFI index down by 9.7% week-on-week, reflecting weak demand in the long-distance shipping market [20]. - The export container shipping index (CCFI) is at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a similar growth [53]. - Major airlines are expected to see improved profitability, with Air China and China Southern Airlines projected to return to profit in 2025 [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume in December 2025 was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while freight volume decreased by 2.60% [72]. - The road freight volume for the same period was 37.97 billion tons, showing a slight increase of 0.62% year-on-year [77].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 交通运输 干散货运价淡季回升，继续重视油运 周观点：VLCC 运价周五再度冲高；干散货运价淡季超预期回升，大船更为明 显。VLCC 市场，本周 VLCC 市场中东航线 2 月上旬货盘基本收尾，租家出货 节奏放缓，运价在周四之前高位回落；随着运价下跌，船东对进一步下跌表现 出较强抵抗意愿，潜在地缘政治风险再度升温，1 月 30 日，波斯湾至中国 27 万吨原油运价指数升至 WS137.2 点，较 1 月 29 日上涨 42.6 点。受矿石、粮 食等品种发货需求较好支撑，本周干散货运价持续回升，BDI 于 1 月 30 日收 于 2148 点，大船涨势更为明显，BCI 于 1 月 30 日收于 3507 点。重点关注招 商轮船、中远海能、海通发展、中远海运国际和中集安瑞科等。 行情回顾：本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30）交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.40%， 跑输上证指数 0.96 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.44%）。从申万交通运输行业 三级分类看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航运、港口、高速公路，涨幅分别为 2.19 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors such as shipping and logistics [3]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are driving up oil shipping rates, while the dry bulk shipping market shows signs of improvement. The report suggests focusing on oil tanker and dry bulk stocks for 2026, including companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [6][11][16]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a decline in air freight prices, with a week-on-week decrease of 3.9% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [2][29]. - The report highlights a positive trend in the infrastructure sector, recommending investments in stable cash flow assets like ports, which are currently undervalued [18]. - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026, marking a potential recovery year for profitability [27][28]. - The express delivery industry is projected to see a slowdown in growth rates, with a forecasted return to mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2026 after a strong performance in 2025 [20]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is facing a mixed outlook, with container shipping rates under pressure due to seasonal declines in shipping volumes. The SCFI index for the East America route dropped by 10% this week [11][35]. - Oil tanker rates are influenced by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, with VLCC rates showing a year-on-year increase of 29% [13][16]. - The dry bulk index (BDI) has risen by 21.9% this week, indicating a recovery in the dry bulk market driven by improved demand for iron ore and grain shipments [16][51]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data shows a decrease in truck traffic by 3.3% week-on-week but a significant year-on-year increase of 38.4%. Rail freight volumes also showed a slight year-on-year growth of 1.2% despite a week-on-week decline [17][18]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality infrastructure stocks, particularly in the port sector, which is seen as a stable investment opportunity [18]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery market saw a total volume of 1.99 billion packages in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%. However, growth is expected to slow in 2026 [19][20]. - The competitive landscape is gradually improving, with major players like SF Express expected to benefit from operational adjustments and profit growth in 2026 [20]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is currently experiencing a temporary decline in passenger volumes due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% in passenger numbers [27]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the aviation industry, with potential profitability improvements driven by better supply-demand conditions and lower fuel costs [28].