Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) seeing a price increase of 2.59% as of the latest report, following a peak increase of 3.28% during the trading session [1][7] - Major liquor stocks have surged, with notable increases including Shui Jing Fang up over 8%, Jin Hui Jiu up over 7%, and Jiu Gui Jiu up over 5%, while other prominent brands like Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao also showed significant gains [1][7] Group 2 - According to Tianfeng Securities, the liquor sector has been in a correction phase for about five years, with current valuations and institutional positions at historical lows. The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, but there is potential for stock prices to recover ahead of fundamental improvements [3][9] - The food and beverage ETF Huabao is currently at a low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.81, placing it in the bottom 3.33% of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3][9] Group 3 - CITIC Securities highlights significant changes in the liquor industry since 2026, emphasizing the need for companies to enhance customer engagement and education. The focus on consumer-centric channel collaboration is expected to be a key competitive advantage in the next market cycle [4][10] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF allocates approximately 60% of its portfolio to leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, while nearly 40% is invested in leading stocks from other segments like beverages and dairy [4][10]

【国泰海通食饮】周报第5期：茅台动销批价上行，零食迎接备货行情 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。 据我们观察，茅台价盘理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近 期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。 展望后续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启， 届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减 轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维持渠道韧性，典 型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具 备较强放量潜力的品牌有望更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 1）首选具有价格弹性标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖以及有望陆续出清标的：迎驾贡酒、古井贡酒、山西汾 酒、今世缘、珍酒李渡、舍得酒业 ...

格隆汇2月2日｜白酒股盘初走高，其中，水井坊涨超5%，山西汾酒、贵州茅台、五粮液涨超3%，古井 贡酒、舍得酒业跟涨。消息上，酒价内参2月2日价格发布，十大单品涨跌分化整体价格升至阶段高位。 ...

今日市场十大单品七涨三跌。上涨产品中，国窖1573、青花汾20、古井贡古20各环比上涨10元/瓶，渠 道补货与成交重心上移带动价格显著抬升；五粮液普五八代同步回升，上涨8元/瓶，批零价差得到阶段 性修复；洋河梦之蓝M6+环比上涨6元/瓶，区域库存去化支撑报价上调；精品茅台环比上涨2元/瓶，高 端礼赠需求继续带动成交价微调，该酒品已四连阳累计涨幅超60元；水晶剑南春微涨1元/瓶。下跌产品 方面，习酒君品回落17元/瓶，跌幅领先，625元/瓶的均价创下30天来新低；飞天茅台下跌15元/瓶，青 花郎回落6元/瓶。 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在2月2日呈分 化走势，但整体价格继续走升。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9020元，较昨日上 涨9元，升至1月8日以来最高位。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时中各点位经手的真实成交终端 零售价格，力求为社会各界提供一份关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows a divergence in retail prices for the top ten products, with an overall upward trend in prices, reaching the highest level since January 8, 2023, at a total price of 9020 yuan for a bundled sale of these products, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [1]. Price Movements - Among the top ten products, seven saw price increases while three experienced declines. Notable price increases include: - Guojiao 1573, Qinghua Fen 20, and Gujing Gong 20, each rising by 10 yuan per bottle due to channel restocking and a shift in transaction focus [1]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation increased by 8 yuan per bottle, indicating a recovery in the price difference between wholesale and retail [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ rose by 6 yuan per bottle, supported by regional inventory reduction [1]. - Premium Moutai increased by 2 yuan per bottle, driven by high-end gifting demand, accumulating a total increase of over 60 yuan in four consecutive days [1]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun saw a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Declines - The products that experienced price declines include: - Xijiu Junpin, which fell by 17 yuan per bottle, reaching a 30-day low at an average price of 625 yuan [1]. - Feitian Moutai decreased by 15 yuan per bottle [1]. - Qinghua Lang dropped by 6 yuan per bottle [1]. Current Prices of Major Products - Current retail prices for notable products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai: 1715 yuan per bottle, down by 15 yuan [3]. - Premium Moutai: 2417 yuan per bottle, up by 2 yuan [3]. - Wuliangye Pu 58th generation: 801 yuan per bottle, up by 8 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Fen 20: 384 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: 585 yuan per bottle, up by 6 yuan [4]. - Gujing Gong 20: 520 yuan per bottle, up by 10 yuan [4]. - Xijiu Junpin: 625 yuan per bottle, down by 17 yuan [4]. - Qinghua Lang: 707 yuan per bottle, down by 6 yuan [4]. - Crystal Jian Nan Chun: 389 yuan per bottle, up by 1 yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The report rates multiple companies in the consumer staples sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - The consumer staples industry in January 2026 shows a recovery in basic demand while hedonic consumption remains under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different segments [3][29]. - Among the eight key consumer industries tracked, four are experiencing positive growth (condiments, frozen food, soft drinks, and catering), while four are facing declines (high-end and above Baijiu, mass-market Baijiu, dairy products, and beer) [29]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (High-end and Above) - In January, the revenue for high-end Baijiu reached 47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.0%. The price pressure is significant, with expectations of over a 10% price drop throughout the year due to high inventory levels [11]. Baijiu (Mass-market and Below) - The mass-market Baijiu segment generated 22.9 billion yuan in January, down 3.0% year-on-year. Despite the decline, the segment shows resilience due to rigid demand and adaptability to consumption scenarios [13]. Beer - The beer industry reported revenues of 17 billion yuan in January, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year. The demand was affected by adverse weather and the delayed Spring Festival, leading to a cautious inventory approach by distributors [15]. Condiments - The condiment sector achieved revenues of 46.9 billion yuan in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%. The recovery in the catering channel and increased demand from small and medium-sized businesses are key drivers [17]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector's revenue was 43.5 billion yuan in January, down 3.3% year-on-year. The demand remains under pressure, but a potential recovery is anticipated in the coming months due to low base effects [19]. Frozen Food - The frozen food segment saw revenues of 14.99 billion yuan in January, with a year-on-year increase of 8%. The demand is supported by pre-Spring Festival stocking and favorable weather conditions [21]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink industry generated 96.2 billion yuan in January, with a modest growth of 1.1% year-on-year. Increased promotional activities indicate heightened market competition [24]. Catering - The catering sector reported revenues of 16.2 billion yuan in January, up 2.5% year-on-year. The demand is gradually improving, particularly in small and medium-sized restaurants [26].

Group 1 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Engineering Index rising by 0.10% to 2029.77 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62% [1][2] - Key stocks such as Lanke Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Luzhou Laojiao showed strong performance, with Lanke Technology leading with a 13.64% increase [2] - Since the beginning of 2026, Lanke Technology has surged by 54.37%, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation at 46.97%, indicating significant growth among certain stocks [2] Group 2 - Market performance was heavily influenced by investor sentiment, with significant volatility across different styles and sectors, particularly in defensive financial sectors [3] - The recent market fluctuations are attributed to the excessive gains in certain sectors, while fundamental and liquidity factors remain stable [3] - Looking ahead, the A-share market is expected to present mid-term investment opportunities, driven by trends in household savings and performance realization across multiple industries [3] Group 3 - Precious metals and resource sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced a pullback, leading to a shift in funds towards more certain areas [4] - The logic behind the non-ferrous metals industry remains unchanged, with constrained supply and increasing demand from emerging sectors like new energy and AI expected to support price increases [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is anticipated to favor economic stimulation over inflation suppression, benefiting large commodities priced in dollars [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention, with Moutai's wholesale price rebounding to over 1600 yuan, signaling a potential bottom for the white wine sector [4][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%) and meat products (+0.5%) leading the performance [15][16] - Key stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showed significant gains, while stocks like Haoxiangni and *ST Chuntian faced declines [4][15] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in meat prices [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [6][50]