每经AI快讯，老铺黄金(06181.HK)午后升6%，截至发稿涨6%，报768港元，成交额7.94亿港元。 ...

消息面上，继老铺黄金线下门店呈现排队热潮后，2月7日，云集众多国际品牌旗舰的上海恒隆广场，迎 来了"传世经典 传世生活——老铺黄金经典作品展"。老铺黄金继"金胎珐琅十二月花神金杯"后，用漆 器螺钿传世工艺将"十二月花神漆器螺钿金杯"璀璨呈现。 智通财经APP获悉，老铺黄金(06181)午后升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报768港元，成交额7.94亿港元。 摩根大通研报指出，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新产品推出、 吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期高基数效应 及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模式及由精选/ 培训团队提供的差异化服务品质)最能从体验式增长中获益。 ...

消息面上，继老铺黄金线下门店呈现排队热潮后，2月7日，云集众多国际品牌旗舰的上海恒隆广场，迎 来了"传世经典传世生活——老铺黄金经典作品展"。老铺黄金继"金胎珐琅十二月花神金杯"后，用漆器 螺钿传世工艺将"十二月花神漆器螺钿金杯"璀璨呈现。 老铺黄金(06181)午后升6%，截至发稿，涨6%，报768港元，成交额7.94亿港元。 摩根大通研报指出，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新产品推出、 吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期高基数效应 及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模式及由精选/ 培训团队提供的差异化服务品质)最能从体验式增长中获益。 ...

港股午间收盘，恒生科技指数涨1.02%，恒生指数涨1.44%。恒指港股通ETF银华（159318）涨1.57%， 港股通科技ETF鹏华（159751）涨1.1%。板块方面，电气设备、保险板块涨幅靠前；酒店和度假村 REIT板块跌幅靠前。个股方面，澜起科技大涨超50%；智谱涨17.62%，兆易创新涨10.79%，中国中免 涨8.52%，MINIMAX-WP涨6.51%，迅销涨5.93%，信达生物涨5.91%，泡泡玛特涨5.76%，三一重工涨 5.71%，潍柴动力涨5.23%，华虹半导体涨5.09%，中国人寿涨4.51%，紫金矿业涨4.19%，中国平安涨 4.09%，老铺黄金涨4.07%；喜相逢集团跌4.9%，伟禄集团跌10.05%；长飞光纤光缆涨13.99%，钧达股 份涨13.86%。 ...

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月9日，摩根大通发表研报指，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新 产品推出、吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期 高基数效应及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模 式及由精选/培训团队提供的差异化服务质量)最能从体验式增长中获益。 该行将老铺2025至2027年的盈利预测上调1%至7%，预计其在今年实现49%的按年盈利增长；预测老铺 在2025至2027年将实现销售额、净利润年均复合增长率达77%、82%；而老铺下一次涨价可能在2月底 左右。摩通将老铺估值期限延展至2026年12月，并维持以现金流量折现法予目标价1296港元，评级"增 持"，为该行在中国消费板块的首选，潜在的短期催化剂包括：1月、2月春节期间零售销售表现；产品 价格上涨即将来临，及海外扩张。 ...

该行将老铺2025至2027年的盈利预测上调1%至7%，预计其在今年实现49%的按年盈利增长；预测老铺 在2025至2027年将实现销售额、净利润年均复合增长率达77%、82%；而老铺下一次涨价可能在2月底 左右。摩通将老铺估值期限延展至2026年12月，并维持以现金流量折现法予目标价1296港元，评级"增 持"，为该行在中国消费板块的首选，潜在的短期催化剂包括：1月、2月春节期间零售销售表现；产品 价格上涨即将来临，及海外扩张。 摩根大通发表研报指，对老铺黄金的春节消费表现比市场更为乐观，原因是品牌权益提升、新产品推 出、吸引新客户、现有客户重复购买及金价走势有利。集团表现稳健下，应能缓解投资者对近期高基数 效应及金价波动下对消费者行为的担忧。认为其凭借系统性发展策略(如门店扩张审慎、直销模式及由 精选/培训团队提供的差异化服务质量)最能从体验式增长中获益。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that overseas consumer earnings releases have led to stock price volatility, with A/H shares anticipating a recovery in discretionary consumption in 2026 [1]. - The performance of various sectors is analyzed, with gaming, U.S. hotels, snacks, and retail showing positive trends, while luxury goods and overseas cosmetics are experiencing declines [4][12]. - The report notes that the gaming sector saw a strong increase in gross gaming revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 24%, exceeding market expectations [6][14]. Sector Performance Summary - **Gaming Sector**: Increased by 5.5%, driven by strong January gross gaming revenue growth and positive earnings from MGM China [6][14]. - **U.S. Hotels**: Also up by 5.5%, with Marriott and Hilton showing positive earnings forecasts [6][14]. - **Snacks**: Grew by 3.6%, with companies like Youyou Foods and Qiaqia Foods reporting significant growth expectations [6][14]. - **Retail Sector**: Increased by 3.5%, led by Walmart and Target, which exceeded market sales forecasts [8][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Rose by 2.6%, with Li Ning benefiting from its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [8][14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Gained 2.3%, supported by strong earnings from Visa and Mastercard [8][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Increased by 2.1%, benefiting from overall strength in the beauty and skincare sector [8][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Slightly up by 0.9%, influenced by a rebound in the U.S. market [8][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Decreased by 5.7%, with concerns over the sustainability of growth for Estée Lauder [9][15]. - **Pet Sector**: Down by 0.7%, with companies like Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Co. experiencing declines [8][14]. - **Gold and Jewelry**: Fell by 1.2%, affected by fluctuations in gold prices [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the valuation of various sectors remains below their historical averages, with expected P/E ratios for 2025 showing significant discounts compared to the past five years [10].

Industry Environment - The rise of Lao Pu Gold has attracted attention from luxury goods giants, with single-store sales exceeding Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels, and a gross margin of 40% achieved through high-end mall locations and traditional craftsmanship [2][3] - Star Creation Group targets high myopia consumers with a new sports eyewear brand, NSVE, addressing the needs of individuals with over 450 degrees of myopia in sports scenarios, while transitioning stores to focus on professional services [4] - Luxury brands face challenges from the second-hand luxury market and emerging local brands, with sales declines for brands like Michael Kors and Coach, although some have seen recovery through product innovation and marketing adjustments [5] - Domestic sports brands are gaining market share, with Anta leading with revenue of 70.826 billion yuan and a net profit of 15.6 billion yuan, while Nike and other international brands experience slower growth [6][7] - High-end brands struggle as mid-range consumers flock to affordable options, with supermarkets like Sam's Club and Costco seeing high sales of budget down jackets, while premium brands face declining sales due to high prices and quality concerns [8][10] Key Trends - StockX's report indicates a significant increase in sales for nearly 200 brands, with Nike and Jordan leading, while emerging brands like MIZUNO show notable growth [9] - The popularity of affordable down jackets among middle-class consumers reflects a shift towards value-driven purchasing, with brands like Bosideng facing challenges as they move towards higher-end products [10][12] - The outdoor backpack market is evolving, with brands like Salomon and KAILAS capitalizing on the growing trend of trail running, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards functional and stylish outdoor gear [11] Brand Dynamics - Pop Mart's Labubu IP saw a rapid rise and subsequent market crash, highlighting the volatility of collectible markets and the need for new growth points [13][14] - Li Ning's participation in Milan Fashion Week showcases a blend of high-quality design and sports technology, aiming to resonate with urban consumers [15] - High-end outdoor brands are focusing on immersive experiences to connect with consumers, as seen in the launch of KAILAS's new line that emphasizes natural aesthetics and sustainable materials [16] - Seven Wolves is showcasing a blend of Eastern wisdom and technology at international exhibitions, emphasizing the shift from scale to value in the Chinese apparel industry [17][18] - China Duty Free Group's acquisition of DFS's Hong Kong and Macau stores aims to enhance its global footprint, despite recent fluctuations in performance [19] - Deckers Brands is streamlining its portfolio by closing underperforming brands to focus on more profitable ones like Hoka and UGG [20] - Aokang's AI fashion show represents a new marketing paradigm in the footwear industry, emphasizing digital transformation and consumer engagement [21][22] - Dongfang Tang is launching a pop-up store featuring traditional craftsmanship, aiming to modernize heritage techniques and expand into urban and international markets [23]

Core Viewpoint - The disparity between international and domestic gold prices is highlighted, with domestic prices lagging behind international trends due to different pricing mechanisms and market dynamics [3][5]. Pricing Mechanism - Domestic gold prices are not updated in real-time according to international fluctuations, as evidenced by the price of 1482 CNY per gram at Chow Tai Fook, which was based on a previous closing price before a significant international price surge [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's price on the same day was 1110 CNY per gram, reflecting a 1.5% increase, while bank gold bars were priced at 1134 CNY per gram, indicating a premium of less than 3% [3]. - The premium for branded gold jewelry compared to the base gold price is nearly 32%, revealing the true composition of jewelry pricing [3]. Market Dynamics - The international gold price surge is driven by algorithmic trading and geopolitical risks, with a significant rebound of 260 USD per ounce on February 8, following a record drop [5]. - In contrast, the domestic market is experiencing a seasonal decline in gold consumption post-Spring Festival, with stable physical delivery volumes reported by the Shanghai Gold Exchange [5]. - The difference in gold prices between domestic and international markets has attracted cross-border arbitrage, narrowing the price gap in futures and spot markets [5]. Recovery Market Insights - Gold recovery shops serve as indicators of market sentiment, with stable buyback prices despite fluctuations in branded gold jewelry prices [5][6]. - Different recovery channels present varying costs for consumers, with banks charging fees for gold bar buybacks and online platforms imposing service fees based on weight [6]. Changing Demand Dynamics - The traditional factors influencing gold prices are shifting, with central bank purchases now playing a more significant role than historical benchmarks like the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield [8]. - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, constituting 23% of annual demand, altering the market's pricing logic [8]. - The consumer behavior reflects a split between gold as a safe-haven asset internationally and its role as a gift or wedding dowry domestically, as evidenced by long queues for gold jewelry purchases [8]. Regulatory and Market Adjustments - Recent regulatory measures have increased the margin requirements for gold contracts, aiming to stabilize the overheated market [10]. - The rise in "live pawn" transactions indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards pledging rather than selling gold outright [10]. - The market is navigating through various pressures, including consumer anxiety over pricing discrepancies and potential pitfalls in the recovery process [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the gold and jewelry sector [6] Core Insights - In 2025, despite a significant increase in gold prices, domestic consumption of gold jewelry is expected to decline sharply, while the consumption of gold bars and coins is projected to grow rapidly [2][4] - The report highlights that high gold prices will continue to impact the consumption structure of gold jewelry in 2026, with a notable shift towards investment-oriented products [2] - The differentiation and branding of leading companies in the sector are expected to drive growth, even amidst market pressures [3][9] Summary by Sections - **Market Trends**: In 2025, China's total gold consumption is estimated at 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 31.61% to 363.836 tons, while gold bars and coins consumption is expected to rise by 35.14% to 504.238 tons [2] - **Company Performance**: Companies with strong branding and differentiation, such as潮宏基,菜百股份, and周大福, are projected to show significant profit growth, with潮宏基's non-net profit growth estimated at 125%-175% [9] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends focusing on companies with strong branding and international expansion strategies, specifically suggesting to "buy" or "hold" stocks of潮宏基,老铺黄金,老凤祥, and周大生 [4][9]