每日经济新闻 截至2026年2月2日 10:25，中证银行指数(399986)强势上涨1.54%，成分股上海银行上涨3.25%，中信银 行上涨2.92%，兴业银行上涨2.46%，华夏银行，南京银行等个股跟涨。银行ETF华夏(515020)上涨 1.34%，最新价报1.67元。 2026年1月30日，证监会发布《关于修改〈证券期货法律适用意见第18号〉的决定（征求意见稿）》， 在2026年3月2日前公开征求意见。意见稿围绕《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》核心思想，承接 落实《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》中提出的"允许公募基金、商业保险资金、基本养老 保险基金、企（职）业年金基金、银行理财等作为战略投资者参与上市公司向特定对象发行股票"。 国泰海通证券分析认为，本次修改对上市银行而言，一方面拓宽了可能的权益补充资金来源，且在服务 企业投融资、居民财富管理和养老保障方面，有望进一步深化金融机构合作。另一方面，丰富了理财资 金参与权益投资方式，利好银行理财向多元资产转型。进而银行长期业绩增长可期，红利策略仍有望延 续。 数据显示，银行ETF华夏（515020）是跟踪中证银行指数(399986)综合费率最 ...

Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see three major catalysts in 2026: 1) Interest margins are likely to stabilize as new loan rates reach a low point, and deposit repricing effects will continue to improve banks' funding costs [6][7] 2) Risks related to real estate exposure are expected to have peaked, with significant progress in mitigating financial risks in the real estate sector [6] 3) Retail business may show marginal improvement as credit risks ease and wealth management activities are expected to activate [6][7] - Investment strategies for 2026 suggest focusing on four main lines: 1) Increase allocation to high-quality city commercial banks with strong earnings elasticity, recommending Hangzhou Bank and paying attention to Ningbo Bank, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Bank, Qingdao Bank, and Xiamen Bank [5][7] 2) Allocate to high-dividend large banks, with a focus on Bank of China Hong Kong (H), CITIC Bank (H), China Construction Bank (H), and China Merchants Bank [5][7] 3) Pay attention to Shanghai Bank and Industrial Bank due to expected strong redemption of convertible bonds [5][7] 4) Consider banks with significant valuation discounts and potential for performance recovery, such as Minsheng Bank and Ping An Bank [5][7] Mechanical Equipment - The CDU liquid cooling pump is expected to benefit from the accelerated construction of AI data centers, as it plays a crucial role in regulating coolant flow and pressure, constituting 30%-40% of the liquid cooling system's value [9][10] - The market size for CDU liquid pumps is projected to reach between $1.139 billion and $1.544 billion in 2026, driven by the increasing demand for liquid cooling solutions as chip power exceeds the limits of air cooling [9][11] - The cooling source side of the liquid cooling system is also expected to benefit from the rapid development of AI data centers, with the global market for cooling water units projected to grow from approximately 105.21 billion yuan in 2024 to nearly 167.33 billion yuan by 2031 [10] Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's application for an orbital data center system aims to reduce energy consumption from ground data centers, which may create significant incremental opportunities for rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [22][24] - The acceleration of low Earth orbit satellite constellations is expected to drive domestic leading rocket launch service providers to actively expand their satellite constellation-related businesses, creating new growth opportunities in upstream supply chain segments [22][24] - The construction of orbital data centers is anticipated to significantly reduce energy consumption, benefiting both rocket launch service providers and satellite manufacturers [24] Fixed Income - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a significant seasonal decline, with the index at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [14][15] - The service sector PMI slightly decreased, while the construction sector's activity index fell below 40%, indicating a need for further economic stabilization measures [19] - The credit market is expected to face structural opportunities despite a less favorable recovery outlook in February, with a focus on medium to high-rated city investment bonds [42][47] Airline Industry - Air China is projected to report a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2025, with Q4 losses expected to be between 3.17 billion and 3.77 billion yuan, indicating an increase in losses compared to the previous year [27][28] - Despite the projected losses, operational data for 2025 shows steady improvement, with available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increasing by 3.24% and 5.85% respectively [27][28] - The long-term demand for civil aviation in China is viewed positively, supported by the company's strong route network [28] Steel Industry - Fangda Special Steel is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 835 million and 998 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 236.90% to 302.67% [31][32] - The growth is attributed to increased production and sales volumes, along with a decline in raw material costs, which have helped restore steel margins [31][32] - The company is focusing on refined management and cost reduction strategies, alongside potential asset injections from its parent group [32] Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is experiencing a decline in production and sales, particularly in the air conditioning and refrigerator segments, with significant year-on-year decreases reported [34] - The introduction of innovative products like Clawbot is expected to reshape the AI assistant market, enhancing consumer engagement and operational efficiency [35] - Companies like Ecovacs and Ninebot are projected to see substantial profit growth in 2025, driven by new product launches and increased market penetration [36]

行业周报 | 非银金融 券商业绩预告亮眼，保险有望延续估值修复 金融行业周报（2026/02/01） 金融行业周涨跌幅跟踪：1）本周非银金融（申万）指数涨跌幅为+1.04%， 跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.95pct。本周证券Ⅱ（申万）、保险Ⅱ（申万）、多元金 融指数涨跌幅分别为-0.69%、+5.50%、-3.62%。2）本周银行（申万）涨跌 幅为+0.86%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.78pct。其中，国有行、股份行、城商行、 农商行本周涨跌幅分别为+0.35%、-0.26%、+3.11%、+2.06%。 投资观点：1）保险：本周保险Ⅱ(申万)涨跌幅为+5.50%，跑赢沪深 300 指 数 5.42pct。1 月保险股受"开门红"业绩高涨，后因监管降温进入震荡回 调。展望 2 月，保险股有望延续估值修复趋势：负债端，居民挪储趋势持续， 分红险凭借"保底+浮动"的收益优势成为承接居民资产迁徙的核心品种， 叠加 1 月"开门红"高增态势延续，头部险企保费增速有望持续领跑；资产 端，股市慢牛预期升温叠加利率中枢企稳，板块有望逐步从"流动性宽松驱 动"向"宏观政策加码+经济修复预期驱动"切换，投资收益提升路径明确 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 红利内部轮动模型：迈向周期与制造 ——多行业联合红利资产 1 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 02 月 01 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华创策略】自媒体 A 股搜索热度重回高位— —流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-25 《【华创策略】60 日均线的机遇挑战——策略周 聚焦》 2025-11-23 《【华创策略】股票型 ETF 为当前流入主力—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-11-1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report delves into the investment opportunities of 10 - year secondary capital bonds. It analyzes the development history of commercial bank secondary capital bonds, the issuance and trading condition of 10 - year secondary capital bonds, the main investors, and provides investment strategies from both allocation and trading perspectives [4][7][49]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 10 - year Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond Decryption - **Development History of Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bonds**: The development of China's commercial bank secondary capital bonds can be divided into four stages. From 2004 - 2012, it was the "old - style sub - debt" stage; from 2013 - 2019, "new - style secondary capital bonds" emerged; from 2020 - 2023, the market's risk perception deepened; from 2024 to the present, the market entered a new innovation cycle [4][8][9]. - **The "Past and Present" of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: The first 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bond was issued by Agricultural Bank of China in March 2019. Since 2019, only state - owned large - scale banks and state - owned joint - stock banks have issued 10Y secondary capital bonds. The state - owned large - scale banks are the main issuers, with Agricultural Bank of China having the largest issuance volume. In terms of the stock, the secondary capital bonds with a remaining term of 3 - 5 years have the largest stock, followed by those with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years [18][22][24]. - **Secondary Transaction Situation of 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: From January 1, 2025, to January 13, 2026, the secondary capital bonds with a term of 3 - 5 years were the most actively traded, followed by those with a term of 1 - 3 years. The 7 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds ranked fourth in terms of trading volume. The 9 - 10 - year secondary capital bonds had the largest trading volume among long - term bonds, and the 10 - year secondary capital bonds issued by Agricultural Bank of China had the best liquidity [30][32][33]. - **Who is Buying 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds**: Insurance institutions are the main buyers of 10Y secondary capital bonds, with a net increase of about 1.6 billion yuan in 7 - 10Y secondary capital bonds in the past year. However, due to accounting treatment issues, insurance funds are more cautious in asset allocation. The increase in trading volume in the past month may be due to insurance companies' net purchases. In addition, securities companies, insurance companies, and fund products are the top three buyers in the past month, but the net purchase scale of securities companies is negative, indicating a stronger trading nature [36][42][43]. Investment Strategies for 10 - year Secondary Capital Bonds - **From the Perspective of Allocation**: The report uses interest rate spread and variety premium as key indicators to measure the relative value of 10Y secondary capital bonds. In terms of interest rate spread, when the funds are loose and the interest rate spread is high, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds may decline. In terms of variety premium, the trend of 10Y secondary capital bonds is highly consistent with that of ultra - long local bonds, with a "volatility amplification" effect in some periods [50][52][54]. - **From the Perspective of Trading**: The report reviews the term spread, the order of yield peaks of 10Y secondary capital bonds and other varieties, and the spread indicators between secondary capital bonds and urban investment bonds. Since 2025, the term spread between 10Y and 5Y secondary capital bonds has moved in the same direction as the 10Y secondary capital bond. In the interest rate upward cycle since 2023, 10Y secondary capital bonds have risen and fallen in the same direction as other varieties; in the downward cycle, almost all varieties reach the stage low at the same time. When the spread between 10Y secondary capital bonds and 10Y urban investment bonds turns negative, the yield of 10Y secondary capital bonds often has room to decline [59][66][76]. - **Summary of Trading Strategies**: The report provides a basic framework for investment decisions by reviewing historical experiences from the perspectives of allocation and trading, and summarizing the core judgment indicators and rules for the interest rate to reach the stage peak and bottom [81][82][83].

Core Insights - The event "Guanghuo Goes Global Spring Action - Shein Industry Belt Overseas Plan (Huaiji Station)" was held in Zhaoqing, aiming to integrate cross-border e-commerce with local industries to boost the high-quality development of the county economy [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was co-hosted by the Guangdong Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce, Huaiji County Government, Zhaoqing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, and Zhaoqing Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology, attracting nearly 50 guests from government, Shein, local garment enterprises, and financial institutions [2] - The event featured various activities such as site visits, policy promotion, product selection, and discussions to facilitate cooperation and development [2] Group 2: Government and Policy Support - Officials from Zhaoqing and Huaiji County emphasized the importance of policy support for enterprise development and the need for a favorable business environment to enhance competitiveness [2] - The Huaiji County Government committed to optimizing the cross-border e-commerce development environment and implementing supportive policies for the local garment industry [2] Group 3: Shein's Role and Supply Chain - Shein representatives detailed their supplier cooperation model and investment policies, leveraging a flexible supply chain to support local industries [5] - The company aims to assist local factories in digitizing production processes and reaching consumers in 160 countries through precise product selection and operational support [5] Group 4: Local Industry Status - Huaiji County has a solid foundation in the garment industry, with 1,028 production entities and a total industrial output value exceeding 2 billion yuan, providing employment for over 15,000 people [5] - The integration of cross-border e-commerce with local industries has led to several local companies becoming primary suppliers for Shein, establishing a "1-hour supply chain circle" across the county [5] Group 5: Future Plans - The event is part of a series aimed at promoting the "Guanghuo Goes Global Spring Action," with plans to deepen the "cross-border e-commerce + industry belt" model and enhance strategic cooperation with e-commerce platforms [6] - Zhaoqing aims to leverage its status as a national-level cross-border e-commerce pilot zone to facilitate the global reach of local products and contribute to the high-quality development of Guangdong's foreign trade [6]

Group 1 - The company, Guangzhou Development Group Co., Ltd., is issuing its third phase of ultra-short-term financing bonds for 2025, with a total issuance amount of RMB 800 million [1] - The bond has a maturity period of 270 days and an interest rate of 1.71%, with a total principal and interest repayment amount of RMB 810,119,452.05 due on February 9, 2026 [1] - The repayment process will be managed by the Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd., which will transfer funds to the designated bank accounts of bondholders [1] Group 2 - The issuer of the bonds is Guangzhou Development Group Co., Ltd., with contact person Guo Xiaochuan and phone number 020-37850365 [2] - The lead underwriter for the bonds is CITIC Bank Co., Ltd., with contact person Feng Ningzhu and phone number 010-66635929 [2] - The custodian institution is the Interbank Clearing House Co., Ltd., with operational department contacts including Xie Chenyuan and Chen Gongrong [2]

证券研究报告 西部证券研发中心 2026年01月30日 分析师 | 周安桐 S0800524120005 zhouantong@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 程宵凯 chengxiaokai@xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 喻麟靖 yulinjing@xbmail.com.cn 静水潜流，价值当归 银行板块2026开年策略 • 板块现状：25年10月以来资金对银行板块策略偏审慎，板块整体呈行情趋势缺失、估值中枢向中值收敛，以及资金交易向绩优股集中、 估值分布不均两大特征。 • 资金面趋势：我们认为国资法人是银行板块中长期定价的主导资金，一方面国资稳定控股银行股（25Q2末持股数量、市值占比均在 60%以上）、且交易频次较低，另一方面央企、地方国资系统是上市银行长期经营策略制定与实施的主导方。而银行板块的短中期行 情或更多受险资、公募、宽基ETF等资金流动影响。 ➢ 息差有望趋势企稳：1）贷款端：新发放贷款利率已行至低位，叠加自律机制调节、监管引导行业"反内卷"等因素，预计今年贷款端 收益下行压力或边际缓减；2）存款端：预计今年银行存款重定价效应仍较强，利于银行持续改善负债端 ...

对接会上，中信银行郑州分行围绕企业出海全流程金融需求，聚焦企业"从出口到出海"的转型路径与关 键环节，系统介绍了跨境出海综合服务方案。该方案覆盖从海外架构设计与设立、境外投资备案 （ODI）的全流程辅导，到离岸贸易、项目融资等全周期的环节，形成了本外币、在岸离岸一体化服务 体系。同时，该行还结合外汇展业改革试点、外向型企业积分贷、信保融资白名单、跨境闪贷、外汇衍 生品专项授信等创新金融工具，帮助企业理解政策、用好政策，以"外汇管家式"服务支持外贸企业成 长。 【大河财立方 记者 席韶阳 通讯员 王康丽 常双双】近日，国家外汇管理局新乡市分局联合中国人民银 行新乡市分行、市金融办、市商务局共同举办"金融支持稳外贸"新乡专场政银企对接会，中信银行郑州 分行作为协办单位受邀出席，并就跨境金融服务作专题宣讲，新乡市50余家头部外贸企业参会。 跨境金融是连接国内国际双循环的重要纽带。近年来，中信银行郑州分行依托其在岸、离岸、自贸一体 化跨境服务优势，持续深耕企业在进出口贸易、国际结算、外汇交易、跨境投融资等领域的服务能力， 为企业提供全方位、高标准的跨境金融支持。本次政银企对接，为企业出海提供了政策、融资、避险、 资金 ...

Group 1 - The banking sector experienced a decline of 0.53% on January 30, with Huaxia Bank leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] - Major banks such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank showed mixed performance, with China Merchants Bank slightly up by 0.36% and CITIC Bank down by 0.28% [1] Group 2 - The banking sector saw a net outflow of 665 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 564 million yuan [1] - Specific banks like Huaxia Bank and Minsheng Bank faced significant net outflows from institutional investors, with Huaxia Bank seeing a net outflow of 67 million yuan [1] - Retail investors showed a preference for certain banks, with significant net inflows into banks like Ping An Bank and Zhejiang Commercial Bank [1]