我来为您详细解读这份腾讯研究院发布的《塑造自己的下一个版本：2026前沿科技趋势》报告。这份报告以"用户视 角"出发，眺望2030年的自己，围绕五个维度展开前沿科技趋势分析。 --- 一、生命力2030：从"活得久"到"活得好" 核心观点：人类生命正经历"第三次转型" 报告开篇指出一个关键转折：过去一百年人类寿命翻了一倍，但从1900年到2000年的快速增长后，预期寿命增速已大 幅放缓。2024年《自然·衰老》期刊的研究表明，通过消除早夭和中年疾病来延长寿命的"容易摘的果实"已被采摘殆 尽。 - Alnylam Pharmaceuticals开发的RNA干扰技术仅需每六个月一次皮下注射，即可控制高血压 - 斯坦福大学开发的mRNA CAR-T技术在小鼠淋巴瘤模型中实现75%的长期无瘤生存 新范式诞生：全球正在从追求单纯的"寿命"（Lifespan）转向追求"健康寿命"（Healthspan）——即在没有严重慢性病、 残疾或认知功能衰退的情况下维持良好生活质量的年限。据世界经济论坛报告，若将人类健康寿命延长1年，产生的全 球经济价值将高达38万亿美元。 三大技术支柱 基因疗法进入"生命代码优化"时代 - CRI ...

Core Insights - OpenAI's chief scientist Jakub Pachocki has succeeded Ilya Sutskever, achieving breakthroughs that were previously elusive for the latter [1] - OpenAI's success is attributed to key figures Jakub Pachocki and Szymon Sidor, who are considered indispensable to the organization [1] - The Polish engineers have played a significant role in OpenAI's early development, leading to the term "Polish Mafia" within the organization [2][3] Team Contributions - Jakub Pachocki has been with OpenAI since 2017, leading major projects like GPT-4 and focusing on large-scale reinforcement learning [5][6] - Łukasz Kaiser, a key contributor to the attention mechanism and Transformer architecture, joined OpenAI in 2021 and has worked on models like ChatGPT and GPT-4 [6][8] - Szymon Sidor, an early researcher at OpenAI, has been instrumental in developing GPT-4 and introducing reinforcement learning into large language models [14] Organizational Changes - Ilya Sutskever's departure was influenced by conflicts with CEO Sam Altman and a shift in focus towards practical applications like ChatGPT [20][22] - The departure of Ilya and other key researchers like Jerry Tworek raises concerns about OpenAI's future in foundational research [23][24] - The shift towards application-driven projects has led to resource allocation issues, potentially jeopardizing OpenAI's leadership in foundational AI research [23][25]

专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 作者：马丁・皮尔斯 通常，英伟达的财报会是本周最受期待的，但这次情况可能不同。市场对 AI 将 "摧毁" 软件行业的担 忧，已导致今年以来软件股暴跌20% 至 30%（网络安全股上周五也遭遇重挫）。毫无疑问，这些恐慌 有些过度。毕竟，成熟企业在现有客户关系上拥有巨大优势，客户很难轻易弃用。正如 Lead Edge Capital 合伙人埃文・斯科彭上周五接受《The Information》TITV 采访时所说："如果你问大企 业：'嘿，你们能用更便宜的替代品替换掉 Workday 吗？'他们根本没兴趣。" 他指出，软件在大企业运 营支出中占比极小，大企业 "绝不会去尝试那些花里胡哨的解决方案"。 此外，老牌软件公司大多已将新的 AI 工具融入自身产品。坦白说，企业全面采用这些工具至少还需要 几年时间，因此当前的季度财报只能让我们管中窥豹，其影响程度也各不相同。 在关注本周即将到来的大事之前，我们先来聊聊一家将 "魔幻思维" 发挥到极致的公司 ——OpenAI。我 们在上周五晚间报道了该公司最新的长期营收与利润预测。报告中最关键的信息是：2025 年，OpenAI 的 A ...

Core Viewpoint - Three major South Korean terrestrial broadcasters, KBS, MBC, and SBS, have filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, the developer of the AI chatbot ChatGPT, for allegedly using their news content without authorization for model training [1] Group 1 - The broadcasters are seeking compensation from OpenAI for the unauthorized use of their content [1] - The lawsuit requests the Seoul Central District Court to prohibit OpenAI from continuing to use the related content without permission [1]

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《《异环》三测及字节 AI 视频模型惊 艳，继续布局游戏/多模态 AI 应用— 行业周报》-2026.2.8 《Moltbook、元宝、Genie3 出圈，继 续布局 AI 社交/游戏/营销—行业点评 报告》-2026.2.2 《AI 入口争夺再升级，继续布局 AI 应用及游戏—行业周报》-2026.1.25 节后继续聚焦 AI 入口商业化、重磅新游及长青游戏 传媒 2026 年 02 月 23 日 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/18 ——行业周报 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 红包等系列春节运营活动或推动豆包/千问/元宝用户量大增及商业化加快 2 月 17 日，豆包宣布通过总台春晚为全国观众送出超过 10 万份科技好礼和现金 红包，帮用户生成了超过 5000 万张新春头像，写下了超过 1 亿条祝福语等，AI 总互动达 19 亿次；豆包视频生成 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The year 2026 is seen as a critical year for AI to achieve value realization and commercialization, with major companies like Anthropic leading in commercialization speed and significant revenue growth [4][10] - Multi-modal models are expected to reach a "DS moment" in 2026, enhancing capabilities while significantly reducing costs, which will benefit sectors like film, gaming, and advertising [5][11] Summary by Sections Market Review - During the period from February 9 to February 13, 2026, the CSI 300 index increased by 0.36%, while the computer index rose by 4.35% [3][13] Industry Dynamics - The AI sector is transitioning from model competition to application exploration, with a focus on commercialization in 2026 [4][10] - Anthropic's Claude model has shown impressive growth, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaching $14 billion by February 2026, driven by its enterprise subscription growth [4][10] - OpenAI has shifted its focus from AGI ideals to commercial priorities, with projected revenues exceeding $280 billion by 2030 [4][10] Investment Recommendations - Key AI application companies recommended include Kingsoft Office, Hehe Information, Dingjie Shuzhi, and others, with beneficiaries in the multi-modal field such as Wanxing Technology and Meitu [6][12]

Group 1 - The report indicates that non-US assets have continued to exhibit a bullish atmosphere during the holiday period, with risk assets strengthening and stock indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America reaching historical highs [3][4][9] - The performance of overseas risk assets suggests that global liquidity remains abundant, with funds flowing into economies and stock markets expected to show marginal changes, making Chinese stocks attractive to global investors [3][9] - The report maintains the view from the previous report that a new upward cycle is anticipated, encouraging investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the market's rise in the Year of the Horse [3][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the 2026 Spring Festival, major stock indices such as the KOSPI in South Korea and the STOXX 600 in Europe reached new highs, with the KOSPI leading with a 5.48% increase [4][8] - Commodity markets showed a broad upward trend, with NYMEX crude oil surging by 5.94% and COMEX silver rising by 8.63%, indicating strong demand in these sectors [4][8] - The report notes that European corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, with the STOXX 600 index's price-to-earnings ratio at 18.3, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 27.7, suggesting a valuation advantage for European stocks [5][8] Group 3 - The report discusses the AI industry, noting that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the need for massive computing power in generative AI and large model training, with Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the global HBM market [9][48] - The report mentions that the performance of the AI sector is expected to continue to improve, with significant revenue projections for companies involved in AI, such as OpenAI, which anticipates over $280 billion in revenue by 2030 [49][51] - The report highlights the advancements in AI models and the competitive landscape, with major companies like Google and Anthropic releasing new models that enhance capabilities in various sectors [48][49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the continuous release of catalysts in the domestic and international technology industries during the Spring Festival, including the showcase of humanoid robots and breakthroughs in domestic AI models [1][3] - The first Tesla Cybercab, designed for autonomous taxi services, has officially rolled off the production line, and OpenAI is nearing completion of a funding round expected to raise over $100 billion, potentially valuing the company at over $850 billion [4][21] - Domestic financial data shows a significant narrowing of the PPI decline in January, with expectations for a positive year-on-year change by the third quarter, while M1 and M2 growth rates have rebounded [7][8] Group 2 - Domestic consumption during the Spring Festival saw strong travel demand and high growth in retail and catering, although box office recovery was relatively weak [9][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of service consumption and technological innovation in the economic work meeting speech by President Xi Jinping, with a focus on supporting sectors like tourism, dining, and healthcare [10] - The report indicates that the market may have entered a configuration phase after short-term volatility, with technology and cyclical sectors expected to be the main investment themes moving forward [30][31]

| 整体市场 | | 更新于:02-23 12:11 | | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 恒生科技 | 恒生生物科技 | | 27019.21 | 5384.52 | 16217.85 | | +605.86 +2.29% | +173.02 +3.32% | +268.68 +1.68% | | 港股通消费 | 港股红利 | 港股现金流 | | 1724.29 | 2313.71 | 2595.53 | | +24.30 +1.43% | +17.29 +0.75% | +55.96 +2.20% | | 恒生综合指数 | 恒指期货 | 恒生科指期货 | | 4140.72 | 27026 | 2386 | | +89.19 +2.20% | +614 +2.32% | +177 +3.40% | | 香港主板涨跌分布 | | | | 跌564 | | 涨1(日) 3 | 美团涨超6.9%，中芯国际涨4.58%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、百度集团涨超3%。 去年四季度以来，恒生科技经历了一轮深度调整。 春节后第二个交易日，港股突然拉升。 恒生科技指数迎来久违的大涨，截至发稿，当日涨幅达3 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer electronics industry, particularly in AI hardware, indicating potential investment opportunities in this sector [4][13]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing rapid growth in new product categories, especially AI-related devices, driven by strong sales during the Chinese New Year [6][10]. - Major companies are accelerating their investments in AI hardware, with significant developments from firms like OpenAI and Apple, which are expanding their product lines to include AI wearables and smart devices [9][10][11]. - The report highlights a notable decline in smartphone sales in China, with a 23% year-on-year drop in January 2026, although Apple remains a standout performer with positive growth [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Events Overview - During the Chinese New Year, sales of smart wearable devices increased by 130%, and health monitoring devices saw over 60% growth [6]. - AI glasses sales surged by 70-80%, while drones and robots experienced a 30-50% increase in sales [6]. - AI toy sales skyrocketed by 500 times during the holiday season, with six products exceeding one million units sold [6][7]. - The UTree humanoid robot showcased advanced performance during the Spring Festival Gala, achieving a maximum running speed of 4 m/s [7]. - OpenAI is developing a smart speaker with facial recognition capabilities, expected to launch in 2027 [9]. - Apple is advancing three new AI wearable devices, including high-end smart glasses and AI AirPods, aimed at enhancing the iPhone experience [10]. - Tesla's Cybercab, a fully autonomous electric vehicle, was officially launched [11]. - Smartphone sales in China saw a significant decline, with Apple being the only major brand to report growth [12]. Latest Industry Perspectives - The evolution of large model capabilities is pushing the industry towards the "Agentic AI" phase, with hardware being the most reliable beneficiary of AI applications, presenting new growth opportunities for consumer electronics companies [13]. - Recommended companies for investment include Crystal Optoelectronics, Jiebang Technology, and Tianyue Advanced, with a focus on AI glasses, AI toys, humanoid robots, and smart driving technologies [13].