Group 1 - The cosmetics sector experienced a decline of 1.5% on February 2, with Proya leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] - Key individual stock performances in the cosmetics sector included Jinsong New Material up 2.33% and Beitaini up 0.88%, while several others like Fuhua and Bawei saw declines of 1.87% and 1.77% respectively [1] Group 2 - The cosmetics sector saw a net outflow of 75.895 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 77.0999 million yuan [2] - The individual stock fund flow data indicated that Water Sheep Co. had a main fund net inflow of over 5.3075 million yuan, while Shanghai Jahwa had a net outflow of 2.71908 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall market sentiment reflected a mixed response, with some stocks like Beitaini and Shanghai Jahwa attracting different levels of investment from main and retail funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant target price increases for several listed companies from January 26 to February 1, with notable mentions including Baili Tianheng, Zexing Pharmaceutical, and Great Wall Motors, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market for these stocks [1][2]. Target Price Increases - Baili Tianheng (688506) has a target price increase of 375.97%, with a highest target price set at 1322.00 yuan [2]. - Zexing Pharmaceutical (688266) shows a target price increase of 88.56%, with a highest target price of 166.16 yuan [2]. - Great Wall Motors (601633) has a target price increase of 83.66%, with a highest target price of 38.00 yuan [2]. - Other companies with notable target price increases include Industrial Fulian (601138) at 73.31% and CATL (300750) at 71.71% [2][3]. Broker Recommendations - A total of 265 listed companies received broker recommendations during the period, with Qingdao Bank receiving the highest number of recommendations at 8 [3][4]. - Other companies with multiple recommendations include Xian Dao Intelligent and Wancheng Group, each receiving 5 recommendations [3][4]. Rating Adjustments - Eight companies had their ratings upgraded, including Shanghai Jahwa (600315) from "Hold" to "Buy" and ZTE Corporation (000063) from "Cautious Buy" to "Buy" [5][6]. - Two companies had their ratings downgraded, including Jincheng Shares (603396) from "Buy" to "Hold" and Huasheng Group (603018) from "Buy" to "Hold" [6]. First-Time Coverage - During the same period, 75 instances of first-time coverage were reported, with notable ratings including Shaanxi Tourism (603402) receiving a "Outperform Industry" rating and Bichu Electronics (688188) receiving a "Buy" rating [7].

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 01 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 业绩预告彰显板块景气度，建议关注节前促销 看好 ——化妆品医美行业周报 20260201 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现弱于市场。2026 年 1 月 23 日至 2026 年 1 月 30 日期间， 申万美容护理指数下滑 3.8%，表现弱于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数下滑 3.6%，弱于 申万 A 指 1.9pct；申万个护用品指数下滑 4.6%，弱于申万 A 指数 3.0pct。 ⚫ 周观点：业绩预告彰显板块景气度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The contrasting performance of LaFang JiaHua and Shanghai JiaHua highlights the challenges faced by LaFang, which is projected to incur a loss of up to 32 million yuan in 2025, while Shanghai JiaHua expects a profit of nearly 300 million yuan [3][29]. Industry Overview - The domestic daily chemical industry is experiencing intensified competition, stagnant market demand, and increased internal competition, leading to overall growth pressure [3][29]. - LaFang JiaHua's main product sales remained stable year-on-year, but revenue declined due to market price competition and channel structure adjustments [3][29]. Financial Performance - LaFang JiaHua's 2025 annual performance forecast indicates a net profit loss of between 25 million and 32 million yuan, marking the company's first loss since its listing [6][38]. - The company's sales expenses were reported to be 6.8 times higher than its R&D expenses, with sales expenses for the first nine months of 2025 amounting to approximately 225 million yuan, compared to only 22.83 million yuan for R&D [8][34]. Brand and Market Position - The brand slogan "Love Life, Love LaFang" has become less effective in reaching the Z generation, who seek individuality and quality [4][30]. - LaFang JiaHua's reliance on a single main brand has weakened its risk resistance, and the brand is perceived as outdated, leading to a loss of younger consumers [19][45]. Strategic Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in product innovation and market adaptation, with a need to restructure its product matrix and enhance operational efficiency [13][40]. - LaFang JiaHua's marketing expenditures have not yielded effective results, with high costs associated with advertising and promotions failing to translate into increased sales [10][36]. Future Outlook - LaFang JiaHua plans to optimize its product structure, enhance operational efficiency, and control costs while increasing innovation in core categories to improve profitability [40][52]. - The company is considering a dual governance model combining family control with professional management to address its internal challenges and improve decision-making efficiency [39][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SH) with a current price of 20.92 CNY [3]. Core Insights - Shanghai Jahwa is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 240 to 290 million CNY, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [9]. - The company is focusing on creating a matrix of high-performing products, leveraging its experience in developing successful single products [9]. - New product launches have shown promising results, particularly targeting younger consumers with innovative offerings [9]. - The company aims to solidify its market position through continuous product iteration and brand enhancement [9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 6.48 billion CNY, 7.26 billion CNY, and 8.07 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 14.2%, 12.1%, and 11.1% [10]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 263 million CNY, 401 million CNY, and 512 million CNY, reflecting growth rates of 131.5%, 52.6%, and 27.6% [10]. Financial Projections - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 6,482 million CNY, with a growth rate of 14.2% compared to the previous year [2]. - The expected net profit for 2025 is 263 million CNY, a significant recovery from a loss of 833 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 CNY in 2025, improving from a loss of 1.24 CNY in 2024 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 54 in 2025, decreasing to 27 by 2027 [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SH) with a current price of 20.92 CNY [3]. Core Insights - Shanghai Jahwa is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 240 to 290 million CNY, marking a significant turnaround from a loss in the previous year [9]. - The company is focusing on creating a matrix of high-performing products, leveraging its experience in developing successful single products [9]. - The introduction of new products has shown promising results, particularly targeting younger consumers with innovative offerings [9]. - The company aims to solidify its competitive position in the beauty and personal care industry by continuing to innovate and enhance its core brands [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 6,482 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 14.2% compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 263 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 131.5% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.39 CNY in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 54 [2][10]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth in the following years, with projected revenues of 7,264 million CNY in 2026 and 8,068 million CNY in 2027 [2]. Product Development and Market Strategy - Shanghai Jahwa has established a "billion-yuan product club" to replicate successful product development strategies [9]. - The company has launched several new products that have performed well in the market, including various fragrances and skincare items [9]. - The ongoing product iterations and brand revitalization efforts are expected to enhance the company's market position and drive future growth [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the beauty and personal care industry is "outperforming the market" [4][22]. Core Insights - The fund allocation ratio for the beauty and personal care industry decreased to 0.14% in Q4 2025, down 0.06 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a continued low allocation status [1][3][9]. - The total market capitalization of the beauty and personal care industry reached 255.096 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a 10.43% decrease from Q3 2025 [1][9]. - The medical beauty sector remains in an over-allocated position, while personal care and cosmetics are in a low allocation zone [2][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q4 2025, the fund allocation ratio for personal care products was 0.03%, down 0.01 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of -0.04% [2][13]. - The cosmetics sector saw a fund allocation ratio of 0.02% in Q4 2025, down 0.02 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of -0.1% [2][13]. - The medical beauty sector's fund allocation ratio was 0.09% in Q4 2025, down 0.03 percentage points from Q3 2025, with an over-allocation ratio of 0.02% [2][13]. Individual Stocks - The top three stocks in the beauty and personal care sector by fund allocation in Q4 2025 were Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, with a total heavy holding ratio of 0.05%, down 0.02 percentage points from Q3 2025 [2][15][19]. - Jinbo Biological had a heavy holding ratio of 0.0163%, Aimeike at 0.0156%, and Baiya Shares at 0.0040% in Q4 2025, all showing a decline compared to Q3 2025 [15][19]. Investment Recommendations - In the context of stabilizing the economy and expanding domestic demand, it is recommended to focus on: 1. Cosmetics and medical beauty: There is significant demand potential in the medium to long term, supported by regulatory policies favoring compliant companies [3][20]. 2. Personal care products: The growing emphasis on health and wellness among consumers suggests opportunities for leading companies with strong R&D capabilities [3][20].

Market Overview - The cosmetics sector experienced a decline of 0.98% on January 30, with Lafang Family leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Qingdao Kingking (002094) saw a closing price of 8.75, with an increase of 4.17% and a trading volume of 1.1682 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.02 billion [1] - Lafang Family (603630) closed at 19.21, down 6.38%, with a trading volume of 89,300 shares and a transaction value of 174 million [2] - Shanghai Jahwa (600315) closed at 20.92, down 4.52%, with a trading volume of 163,300 shares and a transaction value of 345 million [2] - Other notable stocks include Beitaini (300957) at 41.89, down 0.85%, and Marubi (603983) at 31.52, down 0.32% [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The cosmetics sector saw a net inflow of 60.2766 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 62.139 million [2] - The main capital inflow was led by Qingdao Kingking with 68.098 million, while retail investors showed significant outflows across various stocks [3] - Shanghai Jahwa had a net inflow of 6.7524 million from institutional investors, but also faced a net outflow of 7.7544 million from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The core event is the launch of JD's "Send New Year Goods to Hometown" campaign in Jiangsu, where over 10,000 items were distributed, including popular skincare products like Baicaohui's mask set [1][3] - Baicaohui's skincare set features a nourishing mask and essential oil, utilizing traditional formulas with carefully selected herbal extracts, aimed at enhancing skin glow and elasticity [3][5] - Other popular products include the Keep G3Air massage gun for muscle relief and a red sock gift box, both designed to cater to consumer needs during the New Year [5][6] Group 2 - JD's New Year shopping festival offers significant discounts across various categories, including fashion and beauty, with promotions such as buy one get three free and exclusive subsidies [6] - The campaign emphasizes the importance of addressing consumer needs with thoughtful products, contributing to the popularity of "Guangming Village" goods [5][6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **General Economic Outlook**: The Chinese economy shows signs of stabilization, with nominal GDP growth expected to enhance corporate profits. Supply contraction outpacing demand may improve industry prices and corporate earnings, highlighting opportunities in cyclical industries [1][2][3]. Real Estate Sector - **Investment Value**: The real estate sector is deemed to have high investment value, with significant growth in second-hand housing transaction volumes and a narrowing decline in listing prices. Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have seen listing volumes drop by over 15% [1][3]. - **Policy Catalysts**: Continuous policy support for real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other measures are expected to catalyze the market. The valuation of real estate stocks is considered to have a sufficient margin of safety, with many leading companies trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio significantly below 1 [1][3][11]. - **Market Dynamics**: The short-term data indicates positive changes in the real estate market, with a notable decrease in listings for older urban properties, as owners prefer renting or waiting for redevelopment rather than selling at lower prices [4][5]. Travel and Transportation Sector - **Positive Outlook**: The travel industry is expected to benefit from government policies promoting tourism, with signs of recovery in duty-free and hotel sectors. The airline industry anticipates strong growth in passenger traffic, with ticket prices expected to be higher than last year [1][8][9]. - **Airline Performance**: During the 2026 Spring Festival travel period, the airline industry is projected to see a 5-6% increase in passenger traffic, with improved ticket pricing compared to 2025. The industry is entering a positive development phase, with a supply growth rate of about 4% and demand growth of approximately 5.5% [9]. Home Appliance Sector - **Investment Opportunities**: The home appliance sector is currently undervalued, presenting good investment opportunities across various segments, including kitchen appliances and white goods. Leading companies are expected to maintain stable performance and high dividend payouts [1][10][11]. Coal Industry - **Market Conditions**: The coal industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a stable price recovery expected. Supply constraints are anticipated to reduce domestic coal supply by 70 million to 100 million tons in 2026, while demand remains resilient [2][19][20]. Chemical Industry - **Future Trends**: The chemical industry is gaining attention due to increased market liquidity and expectations of positive producer price index (PPI) trends. Supply-side constraints and improved demand from global markets are expected to drive price increases [17][18]. Consumer Healthcare Sector - **Recovery Signs**: The consumer healthcare sector is showing early signs of stabilization, particularly in ophthalmology and dental services. Key players in these segments are expected to benefit from a recovering market environment [16]. Food and Beverage Sector - **Market Performance**: The food and beverage sector has seen significant price increases, particularly for premium brands like Moutai. However, potential risks include the release of pent-up supply post-holiday, which could impact prices [21][22]. Construction and Building Materials - **Market Changes**: The construction materials sector is adapting to a shift in demand from new housing to renovations of existing properties. Recent data indicates a recovery in demand for glass and other materials, with expectations of price stabilization and potential increases [24][25]. Conclusion - **Investment Strategy**: Overall, the cyclical industries, particularly real estate, travel, and home appliances, present promising investment opportunities. The focus should be on companies with strong fundamentals and favorable market conditions as the economy stabilizes [1][3][8][11].