Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the domestic power equipment sector is benefiting from a resonance of investment both within and outside the network, with leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [1] Group 1: Domestic Market Outlook - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," power generation investment has seen rapid growth driven by the increase in new energy installations, while grid investment has maintained steady growth but at a significantly lower rate than power generation investment [1] - The demand for main equipment such as transformers and switchgear remains strong, with a stable competitive landscape; however, the pace of ultra-high voltage (UHV) advancement is slightly below expectations, and flexible direct current applications are reaching a turning point [1] - The price of electric meters continues to decline, putting pressure on meter companies, but the implementation of new standards in 2025 is expected to drive a price recovery [1] Group 2: 2026 Domestic Investment Outlook - The State Grid Corporation is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets during the "15th Five-Year Plan," a 40% increase compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," with potential for upward adjustments [2] - The report suggests focusing on UHV, smart meters, and distribution network directions in 2026, with opportunities for demand recovery and new product development in smart meters [2] Group 3: 2026 Export Outlook - The growth of new energy installations is a common reason for the continuous increase in global power investment, with significant demand elasticity for power equipment compared to traditional energy sources [3] - From 2016 to 2022, global grid investment averaged approximately 310 billion USD annually, projected to rise to 500 billion USD from 2023 to 2030, and nearly 800 billion USD by 2030 [3] - Since 2022, various factors have driven explosive growth in overseas demand, leading to a supply-side gap, with Chinese leading companies accelerating their overseas expansion [3] Group 4: AIDC Outlook for 2026 - The demand for upgraded power distribution architecture is increasing due to the continuous enhancement of AI server power, with the AIDC power distribution method expected to evolve along the UPS-HVDC-SST path [4] - The global AIDC power equipment market is projected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 39% from 2024 to 2030 [4] - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the application of 800V HVDC/SST in both domestic and international markets, creating new opportunities driven by technological changes [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月05日 AIDC与电力设备2026年度投资策略 国内需求确定性夯实，出海与AIDC发展空间可期 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 电力设备新能源 · 电力设备 投资评级：优于大市 | 证券分析师：王蔚祺 | 证券分析师：王晓声 | 证券分析师：袁阳 | | --- | --- | --- | | 010-88005313 | 010-88005231 | 0755-22940078 | | wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn | wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn | yuanyang2@guosen.com.cn | | S0980520080003 | S0980523050002 | S0980524030002 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 u "十四五"电力设备行业复盘：网内外需求景气共振，龙头企业出海加速 "十四五"以来，在新能源装机放量带动下，电源投资高速增长；电网投资保持稳健增长，但增速显著低于电源投资。在电源和电网投资带动下，"十四五"国内电力设备需求呈现网内外景 气共振态势。网内市场方面，变压器、组合电 ...

Group 1 - The industry has transitioned from a traditional "cyclical defensive" attribute to a "growth offensive" track, driven by the clearing of production capacity in the power grid equipment sector and multiple strategic benefits [1] - The latest investment plan from the State Grid for 2025 exceeds 650 billion yuan, marking an 8% year-on-year increase and a historical high, with significant changes in investment structure [2] - The construction of the power grid is shifting from merely pursuing transmission capacity to a comprehensive transformation focusing on "strong backbone + quality distribution network + intelligence" [2] Group 2 - The approval and construction of domestic UHV projects have significantly accelerated, with the bidding amounts for UHV materials and equipment expanding year by year, indicating a robust demand for UHV networks [3] - In the global context, the power grid is undergoing a historic restructuring, with developed countries facing mandatory asset updates and emerging economies needing to fill infrastructure gaps, leading to structural expansion in global grid investment [4] - China's key power equipment exports reached 71.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, a 20% year-on-year increase, with high-value transmission and transformation equipment driving export growth [4][5] Group 3 - The index selected 80 listed companies involved in UHV industry, smart grid construction, green energy, and energy storage, with a high weight of 88% in smart grid and 65% in UHV, indicating strong support from funds and policies [6] - The top three weight sectors of the index as of February 3, 2026, are transmission and transformation equipment (35.2%), grid automation equipment (21.7%), and cable components (12.6%) [8] - The Tianhong CSI Power Grid Equipment Theme Index Fund offers flexible share options suitable for long-term investors and those looking to capture industry fluctuations, providing a convenient tool for investing in the energy sector [9]

Core Viewpoint - The State Grid has announced a fixed asset investment plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a total investment expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, representing a 40% increase compared to the previous period. This indicates a clear high-growth trend in China's power grid investments, leading to unprecedented market expectations for the "power grid cycle" [2]. Investment Dimensions - The power system can be divided into generation, transmission, transformation, distribution, and consumption. The investment in power grid projects can be categorized into three dimensions: trunk network/super high voltage, smart grid/digitalization, and distribution and consumption equipment [10]. - Trunk network/super high voltage investments focus on primary equipment for physical transmission channels, characterized by large single amounts and long construction cycles, typically requiring 2-2.5 years from approval to operation [10]. - Smart grid/digitalization investments pertain to secondary equipment, which includes control systems and automation, with shorter delivery cycles of 0.5-1 year and more stable revenue driven by both new line construction and upgrades of existing networks [11]. - Distribution and consumption side investments target distributed energy access and end-users, characterized by fragmented orders and fast turnover, with profits recognized in line with annual grid construction progress [11]. Company Analysis - Group A companies, such as Pinggao Electric and China XD Electric, exhibit strong cyclical performance linked to super high voltage construction, with profits closely tied to specific project completion timelines [13]. - Group B, represented by State Grid NARI, shows strong certainty and anti-cyclicality in its performance, driven by the increasing complexity of the power grid and technological premiums rather than direct dependence on grid investment fluctuations [15]. - Group C focuses on the end of the power grid, emphasizing access and consumption, with companies like Samsung Medical experiencing accelerated profit growth due to the shift from urbanization-driven to consumption-driven investments, particularly in response to the rapid growth of distributed solar energy [17]. New Power System Cycle - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" power grid cycle differs from previous ones, with its driving factors shifting from "scale expansion" to "reconstruction of the power grid under a new power system." The main challenge has evolved to system stability and capacity for renewable energy integration [20]. - It is anticipated that a significant portion of the 4 trillion yuan investment will be allocated to addressing the randomness and volatility of renewable energy sources. Key factors influencing the industry include cost fluctuations of raw materials, technological upgrades, investment policies, and supply-demand dynamics [20].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the trends and forecasts in the Chinese electrical instrumentation market from 2026 to 2032, indicating a slight growth in production despite a recent decline in cumulative output [1] Industry Overview - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of electrical instruments in China is projected to reach 27.84 million units by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - However, the cumulative production for the entire year of 2025 is expected to decline by 5.9% compared to previous years [1] Company Insights - Listed companies in the electrical instrumentation sector include Weisheng Information (688100), Linyang Energy (601222), Samsung Medical (601567), Haixing Electric Power (603556), XJ Electric (000400), Pinggao Electric (600312), Guodian Nanzi (600268), *ST Huayi (600290), Dongfang Electronics (000682), and Kelun Electronics (002121) [1] Market Research - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive analysis of supply and demand in the electrical instrumentation market, emphasizing the importance of industry insights for investment decisions [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The transformer manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a surge in demand, with factories in Guangdong and Jiangsu operating at full capacity, and some orders for data center projects extending to 2027 [1] - The delivery cycle for the U.S. market has increased from 50 weeks to 127 weeks, indicating a significant backlog in supply [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The demand side is exceeding expectations due to the initiation of new energy construction and grid upgrades since 2023, alongside an anticipated AI boom in 2025 that is accelerating data center development [1] - On the supply side, there is a rigid production capacity, and delays in expansion plans from overseas manufacturers are contributing to a high dependency on electric transformers [1] - The industry has faced long periods of low profit margins prior to 2023, leading to a reduction in production capacity and a loss of skilled labor [1] - Major companies like Siemens Energy and Hyundai Electric are experiencing delays in capacity expansion due to postponed training for technical personnel [1] Additional Important Points - China's transformer production capacity accounts for 60% of the global market, with delivery cycles being less than one-fifth of that of European and American companies, which aligns with the urgent need for AI computing power and data center construction [2] - A review of current expansion plans from overseas manufacturers indicates that by 2030, there will still be a 10% shortage of electric transformers in Europe and the U.S., suggesting continued benefits for domestic companies from overseas orders [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investments include high-voltage equipment exports and components from companies such as Siyi Electric, TBEA, and Huaming Equipment [2] - Domestic investment opportunities are identified in companies like Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, XJ Electric, and Guodian NARI [2]

【中泰电新】特高压项目规划加速，重点关注电网板块 #事件。 #电网4万亿预期下，特高压表现有望加速。 "十四五"期间国家电网固定资产完成度125%，"十五五"有望继续超额完成，预计国网固定资产投资复合增速在6.2- 13%。 历史上看，电网投资增长主要由特高压拉动，十五五期间特高压年度投资有望突破2500亿，较当前水平有望翻 倍。 #特高压项目储备丰富，26年待核准项目较多。 1月30日，记者从自治区政府新闻办组织举行的"国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司社会责任报告"新闻发布会上获 悉："十五五"期间，内蒙古特高压电网外送电需求大幅增长，计划开工建设"六交六直"12项特高压输电线路工程， 分别为达拉特—蒙西、达拉特—大同、乌兰察布—大同、巴彦淖尔—包头—乌兰察布（2项）、达拉特—包头6项 特高压交流输电线路工程和蒙西—京津冀、腾格 【中泰电新】特高压项目规划加速，重点关注电网板块 #事件。 1月30日，记者从自治区政府新闻办组织举行的"国网内蒙古东部电力有限公司社会责任报告"新闻发布会上获 悉："十五五"期间，内蒙古特高压电网外送电需求大幅增长，计划开工建设"六交六直"12项特高压输电线路工程， 分别为达拉特—蒙西 ...

◎记者 王文嫣 在"双碳"目标下，新能源继续保持较大投产规模。中电联专家预计，2026年全年新增发电装机有望超过 4亿千瓦。其中：新增新能源发电装机有望超过3亿千瓦；新增有效发电能力1亿千瓦左右，与最大负荷 增量基本持平；风、光装机合计占比有望达到总装机的一半左右，其中太阳能发电装机规模预计将首次 超过煤电装机。此外，专家预计，到2026年底，全国发电装机容量将达到43亿千瓦左右。其中：非化石 能源发电装机为27亿千瓦，占总装机的63%左右；煤电装机占总装机比重将降至31%左右。 业界对此的解读是，我国的能源结构转型将持续提速，未来的能源系统将以风电、光伏等清洁能源为主 力。但由于新能源发电具有不稳定性，电网的作用就显得尤为重要。 中电联规划发展部副主任刘志强对上海证券报记者表示，在能源强国建设中，要进一步发挥电力在国民 经济中的基础和先导作用。一体推进主配微网协同的新型电网平台建设，增强电网智能化调度能力，保 障新型电力系统安全稳定运行等。 电网投资方向进一步细化 近期，国家电网公司宣布，"十五五"期间固定资产投资预计将达到4万亿元，较"十四五"增长40%。南 方电网公司则宣布，2026年固定资产投资将安排 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a correction, with the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index down approximately 3.5%, while component stocks show mixed performance, with Pinggao Electric and Huaren Health leading gains, and Baiyin Nonferrous and Xiamen Xiangyu leading losses [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, totaling 2.259 billion yuan, with the latest share count reaching 9.357 billion and total assets at 12.409 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - Huaxi Securities suggests that despite recent market adjustments due to external disturbances, there remains ample space and opportunities for the current market trend in the medium term, supported by strong liquidity and high trading volumes [1] Group 2 - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds closely track the National Securities Free Cash Flow Index, focusing on companies with high free cash flow rates, benefiting from ongoing policy dividends and increasing market attention [2] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced adjustments with the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index dropping over 2%, while component stocks showed mixed performance, with companies like Fenghuo Communication, Pinggao Electric, and Huaren Health leading the gains [1] - The largest free cash flow ETF (159201) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, totaling 2.259 billion yuan, with its latest share count reaching 9.357 billion and total scale hitting 12.409 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - Citic Securities suggests that historical trends indicate a rotation cycle of approximately 10 years between large and small caps, as well as quality and thematic stocks. Currently, the excess returns of small and thematic stocks are at extreme levels, which is deemed unsustainable [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) and its linked funds (A: 023917; C: 023918) closely track the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index, selecting stocks with positive and high free cash flow after liquidity, industry, and ROE stability screening, indicating high quality and strong risk resistance suitable for long-term investment [1] - The annual management fee for the fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both representing the lowest rates in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]