1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance has started sporadically, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but is still at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, the basis is 29 yuan, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry's output at a historical high; the cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,196 yuan/ton | 1,223 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Current Value | 1,181 yuan/ton | 1,210 yuan/ton | 29 yuan | | Change Rate | - 1.25% | - 1.06% | 7.41% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy - alkali combined - alkali method in East China is - 42 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - alkali ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.21%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 716,800 tons, including 392,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production - launch of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 94.39% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.15% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7669 million tons, including 961,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].

证券代码：000683 证券简称：博源化工 公告编号：2025-055 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司 关于公司向银行申请贷款的公告 1.公司名称：内蒙古博源控股集团有限公司 2.注册地址：内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市东胜区鄂托克西街博源大厦 3.法定代表人：戴连荣 （一）内蒙古博源控股集团有限公司 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 6 月 27 日召开九 届二十九次董事会，审议通过了《关于公司向银行申请贷款的议案》，现将具体 内容公告如下： 一、申请贷款情况概述 公司基于日常生产经营和业务发展的现金流需要，拟向中国工商银行股份有 限公司鄂尔多斯分行东胜支行申请人民币 95,000 万元流动资金贷款，贷款期限 一年，具体利率以签订的借款合同为准。 该笔贷款由公司控股股东内蒙古博源控股集团有限公司（以下简称博源集团） 提供连带责任保证担保。同时，公司以持有内蒙古博源银根矿业有限责任公司 8.50%股权作质押担保，以持有内蒙古博大实地化学有限公司 30%股权作质押担 保，以持有兴安盟博源化学有限公司 20%股权作质押担保，公司全资子公司海南 博川贸易有限公司（以下简称海南博川）位于海口不动产（编号 ...

北京市鼎业律师事务所 BEIJING DINGYE LAW FIRM 为出具本法律意见书之目的，贵公司向本所律师提供了与本次股东大会召开 事宜有关的文件、资料。贵公司承诺向本所律师提供的文件及所作的陈述和说明 是完整的、真实的和有效的，有关原件及其上面的签字和印章是真实的，且一切 足以影响本法律意见书的事实和文件均已向本所披露，无任何隐瞒、疏漏之处。 中国北京市海淀区人大北路33号大行基业大厦16层 电 话：86-010-82685026 传 真：86-010-82684574 邮 编：100080 北京市鼎业律师事务所 关于内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会的 法律意见 鼎业证字[2025]YX003 号 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司： 北京市鼎业律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受内蒙古博源化工股份有限 公司（以下简称"公司"或"贵公司"）的委托，指派本所律师出席贵公司 2025 年第二次临时股东大会（以下简称"本次股东大会"），就本次股东大会会议的召 集与召开程序、召集人资格、出席会议人员资格、会议表决程序及表决结果等事 宜，出具法律意见。 本所律师根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下 ...

证券代码：000683 证券简称：博源化工 公告编号：2025-053 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司 1.本次股东大会没有出现否决议案的情形。 2.本次股东大会不涉及变更以往股东大会已通过的决议。 一、会议召开和出席情况 现场会议召开时间：2025 年 6 月 27 日（星期五）下午 14:50。 网络投票时间：通过深圳证券交易所交易系统进行网络投票的时间为 2025 年 6 月 27 日的交易时间，即 9:15—9:25，9:30—11:30 和 13:00—15:00；通 过深圳证券交易所互联网投票系统投票的时间为2025年6月27日9:15至15:00 期间的任意时间。 2.现场会议召开地点：鄂尔多斯市东胜区鄂托克西街博源大厦 19 层会议室 3.召开方式：现场投票和网络投票相结合的方式 1.召开时间： 2025年第二次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 4.召集人：公司董事会 5.现场会议主持人：董事长戴继锋先生 6.会议的召开符合《公司法》《股票上市规则》及有关法律法规、部门规章 和《公司章程》的规定。 7 ...

证券代码：000683 证券简称：博源化工 公告编号：2025-054 内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司 九届二十九次董事会决议公告 表决结果：9 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权。 详细内容请参见公司同日在巨潮资讯网披露的《关于公司向银行申请贷款的 公告》。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 1.内蒙古博源化工股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于 2025 年 6 月 24 日以书 面、传真或电子邮件方式向公司全体董事发出了关于召开九届二十九次董事会会 议的通知。 2.会议于 2025 年 6 月 27 日在鄂尔多斯市东胜区鄂托克西街博源大厦 19 层 会议室以现场和视频相结合的方式召开。 3.本次董事会应参会董事 9 名，实际参会董事 9 名。其中参加现场会议的董 事为戴继锋、李永忠，通过视频参加会议的董事为刘宝龙、宋为兔、邢占飞、纪 玉虎、张世潮、董敏、李要合。会议由公司董事长戴继锋先生主持，公司监事、 部分高管人员列席本次会议。 4.本次董事会会议的召开符合有关法律、行政法规、部门规章、规范性文件 和《公司章程》的规定。 二、董 ...

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash industry is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to oversupply and weak demand, with the main contract dropping to around 1150 RMB/ton without signs of stabilization [1] Supply and Production - Major soda ash producers, including Biyuan Yingen, Henan Jingshan, and Shandong Haohua, have initiated maintenance in May and June, but supply pressure remains high [1][2] - The industry is facing record-high inventory levels exceeding 2 million tons, prompting companies to reduce supply through early maintenance [1][2] - In May, the operating rate of soda ash manufacturers was 84%, with a production of approximately 3.14 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.2% [2] Demand Dynamics - Demand for soda ash has significantly contracted, with daily melting volumes for float glass decreasing by nearly 20,000 tons compared to last year's peak, and a 13% year-on-year reduction in daily melting volume for photovoltaic glass [1][4][5] - The real estate sector is in a bottoming cycle, with various investment and construction metrics showing declines, which negatively impacts the demand for float glass [4] - The photovoltaic sector is also underperforming, with a significant drop in installed projects and increasing inventory levels for photovoltaic glass, leading to a reduction in production capacity [5] Cost and Profitability - Despite the decline in soda ash prices, the costs of key raw materials like coal and salt are also decreasing, providing some profit margins for producers [3] - The cost support for ammonia-soda process has shifted from 1300-1400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to 1100-1150 RMB/ton currently [3] - The profitability of the soda ash industry may face further compression due to the ongoing oversupply situation, despite some producers still maintaining profits [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment opportunities in the potassium fertilizer sector, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand [6][32] - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by oligopoly, with major reserves concentrated in Canada, Belarus, and Russia, allowing leading companies to control prices through capacity management [33] - The report anticipates a new long-term growth cycle for the chemical industry, supported by recent policy initiatives aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics [17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new long-term growth cycle due to recent policy measures aimed at boosting demand and stabilizing the market [17] - Key investment themes include focusing on core assets, industries facing supply constraints, and sectors with upward demand certainty [18][19] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 2.5% during the week, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [20][21] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 3.2%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3 percentage points [20] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 74 stocks rose while 345 fell during the week [28] - The top gainers included Ningxin New Materials (+46.7%) and Jinniu Chemical (+27.4%), while the largest decliners were Jiangtian Chemical (-19.2%) and Shanshui Technology (-18.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report emphasizes the investment potential in the potassium fertilizer sector, noting recent price increases for various potassium products [32] - Significant supply reductions have been announced by major potassium fertilizer producers, which are expected to support price stability and growth in the sector [33][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. - The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is gradually recovering, supply has rebounded to a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and the inventory of soda ash plants has declined but is still at a historical high; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,176 yuan/ton, the basis is 39 yuan, and the futures are at a discount to the spot; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 2.40% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand of soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level in the short term [2]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Leveraging factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Inhibiting factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry output is at a historical high in the same period; the cold - repair of downstream float glass for heavy - quality soda ash is at a high level, the daily melting volume continues to decrease, and the demand for soda ash is weak [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - End Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | | Current value | 1,176 yuan/ton | 1,215 yuan/ton | 39 yuan/ton | | Change rate | 0.51% | 0.00% | - 13.33% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,215 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the combined - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method for heavy - quality soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low in the same period [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [17]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, of which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 405,800 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale increase in soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 1 million tons) [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [23]. - **Float glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [26]. - **Photovoltaic glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [29]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, of which the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash is 914,100 tons, and the inventory is at a historical high in the same period [32]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the supply - demand situation of soda ash has changed. In some years, there was a supply surplus, while in others, there was a supply shortage. The production capacity, output, import, export, and other indicators have also changed accordingly [33].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-6-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1215元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1170元/吨，基差为45元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, fuel prices, production costs/profits, related products, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report explores soda ash valuation from these aspects [4][39]. - The basis of soda ash mostly depends on the premium of futures prices, but at the beginning of a large - scale rising market, the spot has better initiative. In the middle and late stages of the market and during the decline, the futures' initiative is more obvious. When the basis is relatively stable, market contradictions are clear and not intense, which is the current situation [4][39]. - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand relationships (or inventory). Currently, it is flattening from a steep contango structure, which is due to bearish sentiment in the far - month contracts, indicating weakness [4][39]. - The transmission of fuel prices to soda ash prices requires significant price fluctuations, such as in 2021. Currently, fuel price fluctuations are small, so the impact on soda ash prices is limited [4][39]. - From the cost/profit perspective, soda ash is currently in a low - profit state, and there have been losses in the past six months, but it has not significantly affected cash - flow costs, and enterprise开工 has not changed much. In this state of low profit and high production, it is difficult to see a reversal in soda ash [4][39]. - From the prices of light and heavy soda ash, ammonium chloride, and glass, the price of soda ash is at a relatively low level in history. Whether it will turn around in the future depends on supply - demand [4][39]. - Valuation ultimately affects supply - demand. Only when there is a transmission from valuation to production and then to inventory can the significance of valuation be reflected. If soda ash maintains high production under low prices and low profits, the valuation has not reached the point of "quantitative change leading to qualitative change" [5][40] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1 Valuation 1.1 Definition - The valuation of commodities is the process of assessing their intrinsic value in a specific market environment and economic conditions. It is a complex evaluation system based on current information and future expectations. For stocks, different types of price - earnings ratios are used for valuation, and for commodities, valuation is more "practical" as high or low valuations will be corrected by the market through trade, etc. [10] 1.2 Soda Ash Valuation - The valuation of soda ash is related to basis, price structure changes, production costs, production profits, substitutes, complements, by - products of production processes, and prices of upstream and downstream products. The report focuses on basis, price structure, raw material prices of different processes, production costs and profits, price differences between heavy and light soda ash, ammonium chloride prices, and glass prices [11] 2 Soda Ash Valuation Analysis 2.1 Basis - The basis of soda ash has high elasticity, which is related to the increasing concentration of the soda ash industry. During large price fluctuations, the spot price is rigid, and the basis expands. In the rising process, the spot follows the price increase actively, and at the beginning of the rise, the spot is stronger than the futures. In the decline, the spot is more resistant to price drops, and the futures decline more than the spot. With more spot - futures traders in the industry, the basis fluctuation is expected to converge. When the basis fluctuates within a narrow range, the fundamentals of soda ash are more transparent [12][13] 2.2 Price Structure - The price structure of soda ash is very sensitive to supply - demand and inventory changes. In the past year and a half, it has changed from a backwardation structure to a contango structure. Recently, the monthly spread has been in a positive - carry situation, with the near - month contracts showing some resistance to price drops, and the market's bearish sentiment mainly reflected in the far - month contracts [17][20] 2.3 Raw Material Prices - Soda ash has three production processes: the combined soda process, the ammonia - soda process, and the natural - soda process. In the ammonia - soda and combined soda processes, raw material and fuel costs account for a relatively high proportion. The price of soda ash is highly correlated with raw salt and fuel prices, but it is more sensitive to fuel price fluctuations. Only in extreme market conditions will soda ash prices react synchronously to raw material or fuel price changes [23] 2.4 Cost and Profit - The total cost of soda ash provides a "floor" for the price. Enterprises may adjust production according to cost/profit, but it is not always the case. Using profit to estimate the price of soda ash is more effective, and the combination of "profit + production" is more meaningful for price judgment [24] 2.5 Related Products - Light and heavy soda ash, as two physical forms of soda ash, have a high degree of price linkage and a reasonable price difference. The price difference is mainly due to processing and logistics costs. Price transmission is a two - way dynamic balance, and in special cases, the price difference may break through the reasonable range [27] 2.6 By - products - The combined soda process produces ammonium chloride as a by - product. There is a certain correlation between the prices of soda ash and ammonium chloride. When the price of soda ash is high, the price of ammonium chloride has more room for fluctuation, and when the price of soda ash is low, the cost of soda ash is more dependent on the price of ammonium chloride. If the demand for ammonium chloride is suppressed, it may increase the cost pressure of soda ash [30][31][34] 2.7 Upstream and Downstream Products - The downstream of soda ash is relatively concentrated, with glass demand accounting for about 73%. There is a price correlation between soda ash and glass. The price fluctuation of soda ash will be transmitted to glass through cost - push, but there are constraints. The reverse transmission is also significant, and in special situations, the price relationship between the two may decouple [35][37] 3 Main Conclusions - The conclusions are the same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the relationship between soda ash valuation and various factors, the current situation of basis, price structure, the impact of fuel prices, cost/profit status, and the role of supply - demand in future price trends [39][40]