Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the main contract of soda ash futures first rose and then fell, with an overall weekly decline. The market is caught in a tug - of - war between supply contraction and weak demand. - The supply side shows positive changes with a significant week - on - week decline in weekly output and operating rate, which eases supply pressure and provides bottom support for prices. However, the demand side remains weak, with downstream purchases mainly for low - price and just - in - time needs. The overall shipment rate has dropped to a recent low, and the de - stocking process is hindered. - Rising raw material costs are squeezing industry profit margins. The profit of the combined - soda process has declined from its peak, and the ammonia - soda process continues to be slightly in the red. - The latest real - estate data shows a continued year - on - year decline in new construction and completion areas, suppressing long - term demand expectations. - In the short term, supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,700 tons or 5.22%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 368,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,100 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 407,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,600 tons [9]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.87%, down 4.51 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the combined - production capacity utilization rate was 76.17%, down 3.81 percentage points from the previous week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 84.47%, down 3.70 percentage points from the previous week [11]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8519 million tons, an increase of 40,300 tons or 2.22% from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 1,900 tons or 0.10%. The inventory of light soda ash decreased by 16,500 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash increased by 14,600 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 221,900 tons or 13.61% [15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 820,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.56%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.23%, a decrease of 9.39 percentage points from the previous week [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process for Chinese soda ash was 215 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.49%. During the week, the price of raw - material mine salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased significantly, strengthening the cost side. The prices of soda ash and its by - product ammonium chloride were relatively stable. Therefore, with the increase in costs, the double - ton profit of the combined - soda process decreased slightly [20]. - As of March 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for Chinese soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw - material sea salt remained stable, and the price of anthracite coal fluctuated and adjusted downward, with a slight increase in the cost side. The soda ash market remained stable with no significant price fluctuations. Therefore, the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 26, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 144,900 tons, a decrease of 0.62% compared with the 19th. The weekly output of national float glass from March 20 - 26, 2026 was 1.0145 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47% [26]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 814,000 weight boxes or 1.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.86%. The inventory days were 33.6 days, a decrease of 0.1 day from the previous period [30]. 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased from 731 yuan/ton to 756 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.42%. The price of well - mine salt in East China remained stable at 260 yuan/ton. - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained unchanged. The price of float glass in China increased from 1163 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%. The price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass in China remained stable at 10 yuan/square. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased from 860 yuan/ton to 900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.65%. The price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained stable at 660 yuan/ton. The price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased from 2490 yuan/ton to 2477 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [35]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Operation Suggestions - The short - term supply contraction provides support, but weak demand and high inventory pressure remain unresolved, limiting the upside potential of futures prices. The market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate. - Operation suggestions: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading. Since supply contraction provides support but weak demand restricts the upside, one can sell high and buy low between key support and resistance levels. For arbitrage, there are no specific suggestions. For options, one can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums and increase returns in a volatile market [36][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant with a slight weekly increase in production and high industry operating rates. The demand is stable, with downstream enterprises mainly replenishing stocks based on rigid needs and showing increasing resistance to high prices. The latest real - estate data from January - February suppress the long - term demand expectations for soda ash. Although short - term inventory reduction provides bottom support, the upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][37] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 818,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,900 tons or 1.11%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 384,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,700 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.38%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous value of 87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, remaining flat month - on - month; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 79.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual capacity of 1 million tons or more was 88.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points [11] 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons or 2.61% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 963,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 890,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 77,900 tons or 4.03%. The inventory was 166,000 tons or 9.84% higher than the same period last year [14] 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 887,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.85%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a month - on - month increase of 7.71 percentage points [16] 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit (dual - ton) of the Chinese co - production method for soda ash was 227.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37.50%. The price of raw material rock salt was stable during the week, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, the cost continued to decline, the soda ash price remained stable, and the price of by - product ammonium chloride increased, so the dual - ton profit of the co - production method continued to strengthen [19] - As of March 19, 2026, the theoretical profit of the Chinese ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 25.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 yuan/ton. The price of raw material sea salt remained stable during the week, the price of anthracite continued to decline, the cost fluctuated downward, and the market price of soda ash was stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process only adjusted slightly [23] 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 19, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 145,800 tons, a decrease of 0.75% compared with the 12th. The output of national float glass from March 13 - 19, 2026 was 1.0223 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9% [26][30] 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 19, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 7.4436 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.86% [31] 3.3 Price Analysis - The price of thermal coal (5500 kcal) decreased by 1.75% month - on - month; the prices of well - mine salt in different regions remained unchanged; the prices of light and heavy soda ash in various regions remained stable; the price of float glass increased by 0.52% month - on - month; the price of photovoltaic glass remained unchanged; the price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu increased by 4.88% month - on - month; the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan increased by 13.79% month - on - month; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu increased by 14.22% month - on - month [36] 3.4 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated downward with a significant weekly decline. The market is under pressure due to the game between macro - expectations and fundamentals. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is decreasing, which supports the market sentiment. However, the macro - level concerns remain, and the real - estate data suppress the long - term demand expectations. The profit of the co - production method continues to strengthen, and the loss of the ammonia - soda process narrows. The upward space for futures prices is limited, and the market may continue to fluctuate and consolidate [37] 3.5 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds - Arbitrage: None - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea supply and demand are loose, but the international situation boosts potential export demand. The continuous tension in the international energy situation may gradually affect domestic urea demand, with a stronger impact on far - month contracts [3]. - Affected by the energy situation, the far - month export expectation increases, and the month - spread may weaken [3]. - There is no important policy issued this week [3]. - After the festival, the domestic supply is sufficient. With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the international natural gas price drives up the international urea price. Affected by sentiment, the domestic market has strong supply and demand, and spot sales are strong [3]. - The enterprise inventory continues to decline this week, but it is difficult to maintain continuous de - stocking without unexpected downstream demand [3]. - The export profit has increased significantly, but there is no new export quota for the time being [3]. - The domestic demand maintains the normal procurement rhythm for spring plowing. The continuous tension in the international situation drives up the operating rates of downstream compound fertilizers and melamine, gradually increasing urea demand. Overall, the continuously high international urea price may gradually and indirectly boost domestic urea demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - The spot price of urea first stabilizes and then rises. The international situation is turbulent, and the domestic urea market is moderately strong. The daily urea production remains high, the wheat top - dressing is basically over, the industrial demand increases slightly, there is no new export quota, but the export expectation increases, and the spot market is generally strong [4][9]. - The ammonium chloride market has rapid sales and active trading. The enterprise operating rate increases by 3.23% month - on - month, but the potential for further increase is limited. The compound fertilizer enterprises' operating rate rebounds rapidly after the festival, with active procurement. The soda - ash enterprises have sufficient pending orders and low inventory, showing a bullish atmosphere. - The ammonium sulfate market continues to improve. The export of ammonium sulfate is expected to increase significantly due to the international market, while the domestic demand is mainly for rigid procurement. The operating rates of domestic caprolactam and coking enterprises are limited, and the supply is difficult to grow rapidly, with the overall atmosphere remaining strong [12]. - The international urea export profit further increases under the influence of the geopolitical situation, but there is no new export quota for the time being [29]. Operating Rate - The next - period daily urea production is expected to remain above 210,000 tons. The operating rate will remain above 90%. Recently, some enterprises' devices are planned to stop, and some may resume production, but the operating rate will still be stable at an absolute high level [39][42]. Inventory - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory decreased by 12.79% month - on - month. After the festival, the inventory declined rapidly, the compound fertilizer operating rate increased, and the downstream demand was good. The port inventory has dropped to a low point. Before the export policy changes, the port inventory may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [48]. Export - There is no new export quota for urea [53]. Domestic Demand - The domestic demand maintains the rigid demand for spring plowing. Affected by the rising raw material prices, the compound fertilizer price gradually increases after the festival, the enterprise sales are smooth, and the rigid demand for spring plowing is maintained. In the short term, the compound fertilizer price may remain strong. After the festival, the compound fertilizer enterprises continuously increase their operating loads to meet the good demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer devices in North China has rebounded [71][75]. - The domestic melamine price has risen strongly in the short term, with the cumulative increase in Shandong region exceeding 7% compared with before the festival. During the Spring Festival, some devices had unstable operations, and some enterprises had temporary shutdowns, tightening the supply. The cost side is significantly affected by the rising urea price driven by the international situation [84]. Price Relationship - The coal price has increased steadily recently, and the coal - based enterprises have good profits, which may continue to maintain a high operating rate [115]. - The synthetic ammonia market shows significant differentiation. In the south, the price has increased by more than 100 yuan due to many ammonia enterprise overhauls, while in the north, the price is under pressure due to temporary over - supply. The domestic demand and external sales are smooth, and the overall price is strong [126]. Futures - The futures price fluctuates upward, and the 5 - 9 month - spread is weak [132]. - In March, the registered warehouse receipts of urea began to increase significantly, and the enterprise inventory continued to decline [150]. Balance Sheet - The report slightly increases the downstream demand due to the recovery of compound fertilizer demand. The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, various demand components (agriculture and others, compound fertilizer, artificial board, melamine, export), surplus, and year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption from May 2025 to December 2026 [152][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the soda ash futures price fluctuated and closed higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between the macro - sentiment and the marginal improvement of the fundamentals. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile due to the game between inventory reduction and high - inventory pressure, as well as profit recovery and high supply [36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 3.1.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 380,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons, and the heavy soda ash production was 428,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. Among them, the ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.45%, unchanged from the previous week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 79.55%, a week - on - week increase of 3.23%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31% [12]. 3.1.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,931,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons or 0.47%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 1,013,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 918,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 15,500 tons or 0.80%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 196,500 tons or 11.32% [15]. 3.1.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 822,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [17]. 3.1.4 Profit Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of Chinese co - production soda ash was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6740%. The profit increased significantly because the raw material cost decreased while the soda ash price was firm and the by - product ammonium chloride price rose [20]. - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - soda process soda ash was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit improved significantly due to the decrease in raw material cost and the increase in soda ash price [24]. 3.2 Downstream Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 12, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons compared with March 5. The weekly output of national float glass from March 6 - 12, 2026 was 1,033,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47% [27]. 3.2.2 Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75,849,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3,788,000 weight boxes or 4.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days were 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days from the previous period [30]. 3.3 Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash futures price first rose and then declined, closing higher overall. The market was in a repeated game between macro - sentiment and marginal improvement of fundamentals. The production of soda ash increased slightly, the operating rate remained high, and the enterprise inventory decreased slightly, indicating that downstream demand had recovered. The raw material cost decreased, driving the industry profit to recover significantly. However, the absolute inventory level was still at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of loose supply had not been fundamentally reversed. In the short term, the futures price may be mainly volatile [36]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pull - back. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view on urea is neutral to slightly bullish. The supply side has an extremely high historical operating rate, and the geopolitical situation has significantly boosted export profits, but there are no new export quotas. After the holiday, the compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded but not exceeded expectations. Industrial demand is temporarily strong but may weaken later. Overall, domestic supply and demand are loose, but the international situation has increased potential export demand, deepening the pattern of strong domestic and international urea markets. Prices may fluctuate with the situation [3]. - Affected by the energy situation, the far - month export expectation has increased, and the monthly spread may weaken [3]. - There were no important policies introduced this week [3]. - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was relatively loose. With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, the international natural gas price pushed up the international urea price, and domestic trading became more active. Even without the opening of exports, domestic urea prices turned bullish [3][8]. - Enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week, but due to sufficient pre - holiday inventory distribution and no unexpected downstream demand, it is difficult for enterprise inventories to continue to decline [3]. - Export profits have strengthened significantly, but there are currently no new export quotas [3][31]. - Domestic demand maintains the normal procurement rhythm for spring plowing, but the international situation has pushed up international urea and other fertilizer prices, indirectly affecting domestic urea supply and demand. The demand for melamine and panels has been okay recently. Overall, the high - priced international urea may gradually and indirectly boost domestic urea demand [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - After the holiday, the domestic supply - demand situation was loose. In the first half of last week, urea spot prices were stable to slightly weak. In the second half, with the escalation of the geopolitical situation, international natural gas prices pushed up international urea prices, and domestic trading became active. Even without export liberalization, domestic urea prices turned bullish [4][8]. - Affected by the increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizers, inquiries for ammonium chloride increased. Soda ash enterprises had sufficient orders and no inventory pressure, and the atmosphere of reluctant to sell was strong. The ammonium sulfate market was affected by the continuous increase in international fertilizer prices due to the geopolitical situation, with high enthusiasm for auctions, and raw material factories began to hold back supplies [12]. - International urea export profits have further increased under the influence of the geopolitical situation, but there are currently no new export quotas [31]. Operating Rate - The next - period urea daily production is expected to remain above 210,000 tons. The operating rate will remain above 90%. Recently, one enterprise's device is planned to stop production, and 1 - 2 enterprises may resume production, with the operating rate remaining at an absolute high [40][44]. Inventory - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased by 6.62% month - on - month. After a significant increase after the holiday, inventories declined again as spring plowing started and the compound fertilizer operating rate increased. Port inventories have reached a low point. Without changes in export policies, port inventories may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [52]. Export - There are no new export quotas for urea currently [60]. Demand - Compound fertilizer enterprises' post - holiday sales are progressing normally. They had sufficient pre - holiday raw material purchases, and post - holiday demand has not increased significantly. The post - holiday compound fertilizer operating rate has rebounded rapidly, but the year - on - year increase is small [78][84]. - Domestic melamine prices have recently increased, but downstream demand has not kept up. Traders still follow the "buy on rising" mentality. Some enterprises have recently resumed production, and with sufficient supply, the increase in melamine prices may be limited [94]. Cost and Related Products - Coal prices have been stable with a slight increase recently. Coal - based enterprises have good profits and may continue to maintain a high operating rate [125]. - The synthetic ammonia market is mainly in a stable adjustment state. The overall supply is abundant, and demand recovery is less than expected. Except in some areas where good demand has driven up urea prices, prices in other areas are mainly determined by downstream factors, and the market has a strong wait - and - see atmosphere [135]. Futures - The futures price is oscillating upward, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak. In March, the number of registered warehouse receipts began to increase significantly, and enterprise inventories decreased slightly [143][165]. Balance Sheet - The operating rate has been high for a long time, so the production volume expectations for the next two months have been raised. The demand for urea from compound fertilizers is weak, so the demand for urea from compound fertilizers has been lowered [170]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, various demand components, export, surplus, year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption from May 2025 to December 2026 [168].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures price continued to rebound and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis, but the market showed a typical "futures-spot divergence" feature. The "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand" core contradiction was not alleviated, and the market lacked a solid foundation for continuous upward movement [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 16,000 tons or 2.03%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.77%, a week-on-week increase of 1.73% [7][10]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9472 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 17,700 tons or 0.92%, and a year-on-year increase of 187,300 tons or 10.64% [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of March 5, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 738,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 53.26%; the overall shipment rate was 93.32%, a week-on-week increase of 32.20 percentage points [17]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of March 5, 2026, the theoretical profit (double tons) of China's combined soda process was -2.50 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 66.67%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was -82.65 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 7.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Supply Side of the Float Glass Industry - As of March 5, 2026, the daily output of national float glass was 148,500 tons, unchanged from February 26. The weekly output from February 27 to March 5 was 1.0397 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.17% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.24% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of March 5, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million weight boxes, a week-on-week increase of 3.629 million weight boxes or 4.77%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days were 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days from the previous period [31]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The supply - side pressure of soda ash further intensified. The demand side had a certain recovery, but the overall shipment rate was still less than 94%. The manufacturer's total inventory continued to accumulate, reaching over 1.94 million tons. The combined soda process profit narrowed, and the ammonia - soda process profit was still in a loss state [38]. Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Wait and see or try to short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: Consider selling out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums [39].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haihua plans to invest 4.837 billion yuan in a project aimed at upgrading its soda ash production facility to enhance efficiency and environmental sustainability, with a construction period of 24 months [1] Group 1: Project Details - The existing soda ash production line, which has been in operation for over 30 years, is outdated and has high energy consumption, necessitating an upgrade [1] - The project will replace the old 1.2 million tons per year Solvay (ammonium carbonate) soda ash capacity with a new capacity of 1 million tons per year, following a 1.2:1 capacity replacement ratio [1] - The new setup includes a 400,000 tons per year ammonia synthesis unit and a 1 million tons per year combined soda ash unit, producing 400,000 tons of light soda ash, 600,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and 1.03 million tons of ammonium chloride as a byproduct [1] Group 2: Environmental Goals - The project focuses on green and low-carbon energy transformation, aiming to establish a green low-carbon technology system through "green electricity substitution" and "direct supply cost reduction" [1] - This initiative is aligned with national industrial policies and supports the company's goals for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, promoting a green low-carbon transition for the enterprise [1]

Group 1 - The company will hold its third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on March 13, 2026, with both on-site and online voting options available [2][3][4] - The meeting will discuss several proposals, including the investment in a new soda ash production facility aimed at enhancing energy efficiency and environmental sustainability [18][53] - The company plans to invest approximately 483.68 million yuan in the project, which will replace an outdated production line and improve resource utilization [18][27][29] Group 2 - The project aims to achieve a production capacity of 1 million tons per year using a more efficient production method, replacing the existing 1.2 million tons per year capacity [21][27] - The investment is expected to generate an average annual revenue of 215.73 million yuan and a net profit of 27.09 million yuan after tax [29] - The company will also engage in futures hedging activities to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in its main products, with a maximum investment of 1.6 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [36][38][51]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Haohua plans to invest 4.837 billion yuan to upgrade its traditional chemical industry, focusing on green and low-carbon sustainable development [1] Group 1: Investment and Project Details - The company will implement a project titled "Energy and Resource Comprehensive Utilization-based Soda Ash Quality Improvement and Energy-saving Environmental Protection Renovation" [1] - The ammonia-soda transformation project is planned to have an annual production capacity of 1 million tons, replacing the existing 1.2 million tons Solvay (ammonia-soda method) capacity, with a capacity replacement ratio of 1.2:1 [1] - The project aligns with national industrial policies by adopting a reduction replacement strategy [1] Group 2: Environmental Goals - The core objective of the project is to achieve energy green and low-carbon transformation [1] - The project aims to establish a green low-carbon technology system through dual pathways of "green electricity substitution" and "direct supply cost reduction" [1] - It is designed to facilitate the company's early layout for carbon peak and carbon neutrality, promoting a green low-carbon transformation of the enterprise [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - The project includes the construction of a new 400,000 tons/year ammonia facility [1] - It will also establish a new 1 million tons/year soda ash facility, producing 400,000 tons of light soda ash, 600,000 tons of heavy soda ash, and generating 1.03 million tons of ammonium chloride as a byproduct [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in industrial-grade and battery-grade lithium carbonate, while other products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [2][4] - Key products with notable price increases this week include industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%), battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), PVC (up 6.06%), and ammonium chloride (up 5.71%) [2][4] - Conversely, products with significant price declines include liquid chlorine (down 46.95%), nitric acid (down 8.00%), and natural gas (down 5.99%) [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently in a weak overall performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include investing in glyphosate companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, as well as domestic leaders in lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins [4]