天齐锂业公告，智利当地时间2025年12月27日，公司参股公司SQM披露称已完成其与Codelco之间的战 略合作，合营公司SQM Salar名称将变更为Nova Andino Litio SpA。本次合并系按照双方于2024年5月31 日签署的《合伙协议》中所约定的条款执行，但目前仍受一项解除性条件约束，即有待智利最高法院就 公司全资子公司天齐智利向智利最高法院提起的上诉作出裁决。SQM公告称：根据《合伙协议》的约 定，合营公司A类股份（由Codelco持有）与B类股份（由SQM持有）所享有的优先权及经济权利已于 2025年1月1日起生效。上述权利包括依照协议所规定的方法进行股息的分配与支付。目前，SQM与合 营公司正在依据该方法确定拟分配的股息，并同时审查因本次合并产生的其他会计影响。上述事项将体 现在SQM2025年度合并财务报表以及合营公司的财务报表中。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium announced that its associate company SQM has completed a strategic partnership with Codelco, with the joint venture name changing to Nova Andino Litio SpA, pending a court ruling [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The merger is executed according to the terms outlined in the partnership agreement signed on May 31, 2024 [1] - The joint venture's A-class shares, held by Codelco, and B-class shares, held by SQM, will have their rights and economic benefits effective from January 1, 2025 [1] Group 2: Legal Conditions - The merger is still subject to a suspensive condition, awaiting a ruling from the Chilean Supreme Court regarding an appeal filed by Tianqi Lithium's wholly-owned subsidiary in Chile [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium announced that on December 27, 2025, local time in Chile, SQM disclosed the completion of its strategic cooperation with Codelco, resulting in the name change of the joint venture company SQM Salar to Nova Andino Litio SpA. This merger is executed according to the terms outlined in the partnership agreement signed on May 31, 2024, but is still subject to a suspensive condition pending a ruling from the Chilean Supreme Court regarding an appeal filed by Tianqi Lithium's wholly-owned subsidiary in Chile [1]. Group 1 - The strategic cooperation between SQM and Codelco has been finalized, leading to the establishment of a new entity named Nova Andino Litio SpA [1]. - The merger follows the partnership agreement signed on May 31, 2024, indicating a planned collaboration between the two companies [1]. - The completion of this merger is contingent upon a ruling from the Chilean Supreme Court regarding an appeal by Tianqi Lithium's subsidiary [1].

Market Overview - On December 29, the spot settlement guidance price for battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 123,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,000 CNY from the previous working day [1] - The price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) remained stable at 96,000 CNY/ton [1] - The current spot market is characterized by a lack of transactions, with some entities and traders facing significant losses from previous hedging [1] Futures Market - On December 29, lithium carbonate futures opened at 134,500 CNY but experienced a significant drop in the afternoon, closing at 118,820 CNY/ton, down 10,180 CNY from the previous trading day [1] - The reduction in open interest indicates a growing trend of profit-taking among long positions [1] Price Trends - The average price level for lithium iron phosphate cells suggests that the terminal's tolerance for lithium carbonate prices is around 110,000 CNY [4] - The price changes for various lithium products from December 26 to December 29 include: - Lithium concentrate increased by 10 CNY to 1,590 CNY [2] - Battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices remained unchanged [2] Market Sentiment - Market opinions on the recent drop in lithium carbonate futures are mixed, with 70% of respondents expecting a bullish or stable market, while 30% anticipate a bearish trend, primarily from downstream companies [7] - Optimists believe that despite the afternoon price drop, overall resources remain tight, while some downstream users express concerns that high lithium carbonate prices may impact the economic viability of energy storage [7] Industry Insights - According to the production schedule for January, overall lithium battery production is expected to decline slightly, but the decrease is less significant than in previous off-seasons [10] - The supply-demand dynamics remain robust, with only lithium iron phosphate manufacturers experiencing increased maintenance [10] - The market is expected to see wide fluctuations leading up to the New Year due to the rapid increase in recent prices and slow cost transmission to downstream [10]

期货行情： 2025-12-25，沪铜主力合约开于 95910元/吨，收于 96210元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.11%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 96,410元/吨，收于 96,280 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨2.57%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价贴水400至260元/吨，均价贴水330元/吨，较昨日下跌20元。1#电解铜价格 区间为94300-95220元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约震荡上行，午前收于95230元/吨附近。现货市场报价继续走弱，部分 冶炼厂低价出货，下游需求整体疲软。早盘主流平水铜贴水360-300元/吨，好铜货源稀少，报价难寻。第二时段后 平水铜贴水扩大至400元/吨附近，整体成交清淡。跨月价差维持C220-C180元/吨。随着交易转向下月票，预计现货 流动性将进一步下降，升水或延续下行趋势。 圣诞假期海外休市 但铜价依然维持偏强态势 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 市场要闻与重要数据 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-26 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，12月25 ...

Summary of Copper Production Trends and Market Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the copper mining industry, tracking production trends from major miners that account for approximately 70% of global mined copper supply [2][4][14]. Key Production Trends - Total mined copper production for Q3 2025 decreased by 2.1% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 3.6% year-over-year (y/y) due to operational challenges faced by key companies [2][4][14]. - Significant operational issues were reported at Ivanhoe Mines (Kamoa-Kakula), Freeport-McMoRan (Grasberg), and Codelco (El Teniente) [4][14]. - A more substantial y/y decline in production is anticipated for Q4 2025, particularly due to the complete shutdown of Grasberg, which contributes around 3% to global supply when fully operational [4][8]. Market Outlook - The outlook for copper prices is bullish, driven by serious supply constraints and increasing global demand [7][16]. - The copper market is expected to experience growing deficits, even with a projected global GDP growth of 2% [3][16]. - The report suggests that the overall supply risks remain to the downside, indicating potential for significant market deficits in the coming year [3]. Demand Projections - Global copper demand is projected to grow, with specific sectors such as electric networks and renewable energy showing strong growth rates [17]. - Chinese copper demand is expected to decline slightly in construction, particularly in housing construction, while non-housing construction and electric networks are projected to grow [17]. Financial Metrics and Recommendations - The report includes a valuation comparison of major mining companies, highlighting P/E ratios, EV/EBITDA, and dividend yields for companies like Anglo American, BHP, and Freeport-McMoRan [18]. - A recommendation is made to invest in a diversified basket of copper miners to mitigate exposure to individual company risks [7]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring operational challenges at major mines, as these can significantly impact global supply and pricing dynamics [4][14]. - The anticipated price for copper is projected to rise, with estimates reaching $6.00 per pound by 2030 [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the copper mining industry, highlighting production trends, market outlook, demand forecasts, and investment recommendations.

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铜价走高 持货商集中抛售 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-24，沪铜主力合约开于 94850元/吨，收于 96100元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.31%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 95,910元/吨，收于 95,020 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下降0.25%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货对当月2601合约贴水380至240元/吨，均价贴水310元/吨，较昨日下跌95元。1# 电解铜价格为94420-94690元/吨。早盘沪铜主力合约于94800-95230元/吨区间窄幅整理，尾盘回落至93800元附近。 铜价再创历史新高，一度突破95000元大关。受年末资金压力影响，持货商早市集中抛售，市场买盘乏力，主流平 水铜贴水已降至300元/吨以下，为今年5月下旬以来首次。高铜价已导致部分下游企业停产，预计今日贴水或将继 续扩大。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，地缘方面，乌克兰总统泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点细节，包括乌克兰加入欧盟、向 乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障、乌克兰将尽快举行选举等。但关键的领土问题仍未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain strong in 2026 with potential for further increase, mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts supporting the economy and the supply - demand gap. [2][200] - From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to be loose, leading to a marginal improvement in liquidity. [2] - From a micro perspective, there are structural changes in both the supply and demand of refined copper, and the supply - demand situation will shift from surplus in 2025 to a deficit in 2026. [2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Copper Price Trend Review 3.1.1 Copper Price Review: Increased Volatility and Higher Central Value - In 2025, the copper price first declined and then rose, reaching a new historical high. The LME 3 - month copper price increased by 15.37% from the beginning of the year to March 26, then fell by 11.05%, and finally rose by 31.13% as of December 12. The Shanghai Copper Index also increased, but its annual increase was lower than that of the LME copper. [6][7] 3.1.2 Driving Logic: Supply - Demand Imbalance and Structural Changes - The core driving logic of the price is the continuous fermentation of rigid supply constraints, demand structure changes, and macro - policy support, which attracted a large amount of capital to participate in copper futures trading. [10] - Supply - side tensions were continuously fermented and gradually spread to the smelting end. Multiple large - scale copper mines had unexpected production cuts and shutdowns, and the supply of scrap copper was weaker than expected. [12][17] - Demand shifted from the real - world logic to the expected logic. In the first half of the year, domestic copper consumption continued to rise, but in the second half, high copper prices began to suppress downstream demand, and the market started trading on consumption expectations. [18][20] - The global monetary policy turned to be loose, which was an important macro - support for copper prices. However, Trump's tariff policy and the U.S. government shutdown increased price volatility. [21] 3.2 U.S. Economic Soft Landing and Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts, Supporting the Price of Risk Assets - In 2026, the U.S. economic resilience, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and structural consumption will continue to affect the copper price, providing support at the bottom and a ceiling at the top. [24] - The U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, with consumption showing a trend of moderate positive growth, investment presenting a structural change, and net exports maintaining a large deficit but with a reduced drag on GDP. [24][25][27] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will continue to be loose, with interest rates likely to decline overall. This will reduce the risk - free rate, increase the valuation of risk assets, and support economic growth, which will also drive up the copper price. [29][32] 3.3 Fundamentals: The Expectation of Marginal Consumption Recovery is Strengthening, and the Logic of Supply Tightness is Spreading to the Smelting End 3.3.1 New - Quality Productivity and the New - Energy Industry Significantly Contribute to the Increment of Copper Consumption - AI drives the potential of U.S. copper consumption, and the U.S. has a high tolerance for copper price increases. It is estimated that the AI computing power centers in the U.S. will drive an additional copper consumption of 4.73 million tons in 2026. [37][42] - Policy - driven new - energy industries are developing strongly, with an increasing copper consumption. It is expected that the global new - energy industry will have a copper consumption increment of 32.06 million tons in 2026. [54] - China's "14th Five - Year Plan" supports the development of new - quality productivity, and power grid investment is an important engine for copper consumption growth. It is estimated that the power grid investment will drive a copper consumption increment of 31.84 million tons in 2026. [81][84] 3.3.2 Traditional Industries' Copper Consumption Continues to Increase, but with Significant Differences Among Countries - China's policies support the traditional industries, but the growth rate of copper consumption is slowing down. The real - estate market will continue to adjust, and the consumption of traditional fuel - powered vehicles will decline. It is estimated that the traditional industries in China will have a copper consumption decrease of 7.62 million tons in 2026. [89][90][101] - The U.S. and Europe have cut interest rates multiple times, supporting the moderate development of traditional industries. The U.S. real - estate market is expected to recover in 2026, and the European copper demand will increase due to grid transformation and other factors. [109][120] - Japan's traditional industries face uncertainties in recovery, while South Korea's traditional industries face pressure but receive strong policy support. [126][129] - Developing and emerging countries have a significant increment in copper consumption. Southeast Asia has become a world economic growth pole, India's economy is growing at a relatively high speed, the Middle East is transforming from resource - dependence to diversification, South America's economy is growing moderately, and Africa is promoting growth and reducing poverty. [131][134][142] 3.3.3 Tight Raw - Material Supply and Excessive Expansion of Smelting Capacity - The production of copper mines is highly disturbed, and the output is lower than expected. It is estimated that the global copper mine output will increase by 68 million tons in 2026, but the available copper concentrate increment in the market will be about 51 million tons. [151][157] - The domestic supply of scrap copper increases, but the growth rate of scrap - copper imports slows down. It is estimated that the domestic scrap - copper supply will increase by 15 million tons in 2026, and the scrap - copper import volume will be the same as in 2025. [168][177] - China's copper smelting capacity is expanding, and the copper output is increasing significantly. It is estimated that the domestic refined - copper output will increase by 68.75 million tons in 2026, while the overseas electrolytic - copper output will only decrease by less than 3 million tons. [185][190] 3.3.4 Balance Sheet: It is Expected that the Global Copper Supply will be in Surplus in 2025 but in a Large Deficit in 2026 - It is expected that the global copper mine supply will be in shortage from 2025 to 2026, affecting the refined - copper output and changing the supply situation from surplus to deficit. In 2025, the global refined - copper supply will have a surplus of 9.1 million tons, while in 2026, it will have a deficit of 19.7 million tons. [198] 3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook 3.4.1 Logic of the Copper Price in 2026: Macro - Level Support from Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts and Micro - Level Supply - Demand Gap - The copper price is expected to remain strong in 2026, with potential for further increase. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the economy, and the supply - demand gap will also drive up the price. [200] 3.4.2 Investment Outlook - Unilateral trading: Multiple logics drive the price to remain strong. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the supply - demand gap support the price. In terms of rhythm, the price is more likely to be strong in the first half of the year, and the increment of refined copper from Indonesian mines in the second half may limit the upside space. However, market capital, U.S. copper tariff policy expectations, and the pricing of emerging industries are still conducive to increasing the upward volatility of the price. [204][205] - Arbitrage trading: There is a certainty in the term positive arbitrage of Shanghai Copper and LME Copper. The de - stocking of global copper inventories in 2026 and the price difference between COMEX and LME copper will drive the trade. The internal - external reverse and positive arbitrage are stage - based trades. Each has its own logic and risk points. [208][209]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including futures, stocks, bonds, and commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements for each sector, offering trading strategies based on the analysis [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory [Daily精选] - Tin: Fundamentals remain strong, with tight tin ore supply and stable demand in some sectors. Prices are expected to remain strong, suggesting a long - position strategy [2]. - LLDPE: Linear in North China is near the risk - free basis. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand has reached its peak. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [3]. - Coking Coal: The futures rebounded, with spot prices fluctuating. Supply may decrease at the end of the year, and demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [4]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Palm oil export is weak, while soybean oil may be boosted by crude oil, and rapeseed oil may find support in a certain price range [5]. - Platinum and Palladium: Fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term. In the short term, there may be a correction, and a buy - on - dip strategy is recommended [7]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures] - The stock market showed a defensive style, with the dividend sector rising. The four major stock index futures contracts declined. The market lacks an upward driving force, and a cautious waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [9][10][11]. [Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Bond Futures] - Bond futures closed mostly higher. The central bank's operations have made the capital market loose. There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands. A short - term shock - based strategy is recommended [12][13]. [Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals] - Precious metals rose and then fell. US inflation slowed down, and European monetary policies diverged. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, silver to wait and see, and platinum and palladium to buy on dips [14][17][18]. [Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line)] - The SCFIS European line index showed a mixed trend. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19]. [Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper] - Copper prices are oscillating. The probability of interest rate cuts has slightly increased, and inventories are accumulating. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [20][24]. - Alumina: The spot price is falling, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. A short - term long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [25][27]. - Aluminum: The CPI data has strengthened the interest - rate cut logic. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and a long - position strategy for bargain - hunting is recommended [27][30]. - Aluminum Alloy: The social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 is recommended [33][34]. - Zinc: The zinc price is oscillating. The supply is gradually tightening, and the demand is stable. A short - term waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended, and a cross - market reverse arbitrage position should be held [34][37]. - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain strong. A long - position strategy is recommended [38][41]. - Nickel: The low valuation and news have driven the price to rebound. The price is expected to oscillate and repair, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114,000 - 118,000 [41][44]. - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 [45][47]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is decreasing slowly. A short - term wide - range oscillation strategy is recommended [49][52]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen due to the expected increase in warehouse receipts. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [53]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is oscillating and rising. The supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [54][55]. [Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals - Steel] - Steel prices are oscillating within a range. The cost is stable, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [56][57]. - Iron Ore: The futures price rebounded. The supply is increasing, the demand is decreasing, and the inventory is accumulating. A long - position strategy for the 2605 contract and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [58][60]. - Coking Coal: The futures price rebounded. The supply may decrease at the end of the year, and the demand is weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [61][64]. - Coke: The futures price rebounded. The second - round price cut has been implemented, and the supply and demand are weak. A short - term long - position strategy for the 2605 contract is recommended [65][66]. [Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products - Meal] - The spot price of soybean meal is falling, and the supply pressure is still there. The price of rapeseed meal is stable, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [67][69]. - Live Pigs: The supply pressure is limited, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the development of the epidemic [70][72]. - Corn: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [73][74]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating weakly. A bearish strategy is recommended [76][77]. - Cotton: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price rise has slowed down. Attention should be paid to the resistance level [77][78]. - Eggs: The egg price is mostly stable, and the supply is still abundant. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [80][81]. - Oils and Fats: The decline of vegetable oils has slowed due to rising crude oil prices. Different oils have different trends, and attention should be paid to support levels [82][85]. - Red Dates: The downward trend has slowed, and the price is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to consumption and inventory [86]. - Apples: The price is oscillating downward. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. A long - position liquidation strategy is recommended [87]. [Commodity Futures - Energy Chemicals - PX] - PX prices are rising. The short - term upward driving force is limited, and the medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight. A rolling long - position strategy is recommended [88][89]. - PTA: The supply - demand is expected to be tight in December and loose in the first quarter. A rolling long - position strategy and a 5 - 9 positive arbitrage strategy are recommended [90][91]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw materials. A strategy similar to PTA and a short - position strategy for high processing fees are recommended [92][93]. - Bottle Chip: The inventory is decreasing, and the processing fee is supported. Attention should be paid to device restarts and new device production [94][95]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the long - term supply - demand is weak. A short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and an option - selling strategy is recommended [96]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [97][98]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price driving force is limited. A short - term weak - oscillation strategy is recommended [99][100]. - LLDPE: The North China basis is near the risk - free level. The supply is increasing, and the demand has reached its peak. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [101]. - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the profit of PDH [102]. - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening. The overseas supply is decreasing, and the domestic supply and demand are increasing. A strategy of paying attention to the narrowing of MTO05 is recommended [102][103]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pressure remains, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak [103][105]. - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [106]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the supply is excessive. A short - position strategy on rebounds is recommended [107][109]. - Glass: The spot price has stopped falling, and there is no continuous upward driving force. A waiting - and - seeing strategy is recommended [107][109]. - Natural Rubber: The price is oscillating within a range. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [109][111]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost has fallen, and the price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 11,200 [111][114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures products across multiple industries, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Each product's market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends are detailed, with corresponding investment strategies proposed based on these analyses. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selections - Tin: With a strong fundamental outlook, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand in some areas like South China shows resilience. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips. [2][36][39] - Methanol: The spot and basis are both strengthening, and trading is fair. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3] - Coking Coal: Spot prices are falling, and the futures market has rebounded from an oversold position. Short - term rebound is expected. [3][61][63] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils like palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have their own market characteristics and price trends. [4][80][82] 3.2 Financial Derivatives 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: A - share markets showed a mixed trend. Index futures declined, and the basis of expiring contracts converged naturally. [8][9] - News: Domestic fiscal revenue data was released, and overseas trade frictions emerged. [9][10] - Capital Flow: A - share trading volume was stable, and the central bank conducted net reverse - repo withdrawals. [10] - Investment Strategy: Given the unclear market trend, it is advisable to wait and see. [10] 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board, with long - term bonds experiencing significant gains. [11] - Capital Flow: The central bank conducted reverse - repo operations, resulting in net withdrawals. [12] - Investment Strategy: The short - term upward trend is not solid. It is recommended to treat the market as a shock, with short - term trading being cautious. [13] 3.3 Precious Metals - Market: Fed officials signaled a dovish stance, driving the price of precious metals higher. Silver reached a new high. [14][15] - Outlook: Gold is expected to rise in the medium - to - long term, while silver may face regulatory risks due to over - buying. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the long term. [16][17] 3.4 Shipping Index (European Routes) - Index: SCFIS and SCFI indices showed different trends. [18] - Fundamentals: Container shipping capacity increased, while demand in some regions was weak. [18] - Logic: The futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. [18][19] 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Inventories increased, and spot trading was average. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 90000 - 91000 yuan/ton. [19][22] - Alumina: The price is expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate, with a reference range of 2450 - 2700 yuan/ton. [23][25] - Aluminum: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support at 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [25][28] - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level, with a reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [29][31] - Zinc: The price center has adjusted downward, and the supply pattern is gradually tightening. The price is expected to be volatile, with support at 22850 - 22950 yuan/ton. [32][35] - Tin: The fundamentals are strong, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to hold long positions. [36][39] - Nickel: The price is expected to recover slightly in the short term, with a reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [39][42] - Stainless Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a reference range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [43][45] - Lithium Carbonate: The price rose significantly due to news, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and reduce long positions. [47][50] - Polysilicon: The futures price rose to a new high, but the supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [51][53] - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a reference range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. [53][54] 3.6 Black Metals - Steel: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with 5 - month contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coils focusing on the 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton and 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton ranges respectively. [55][57] - Iron Ore: The price is expected to rebound, with a recommended long - position strategy for the 2605 contract in the 730 - 800 yuan/ton range. [58][60] - Coking Coal: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [61][63] - Coke: The price has rebounded from an oversold position, and short - term rebound is expected. [64][66] 3.7 Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybean market lacks highlights, and the domestic soybean meal market has pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of a decline in the 1 - 5 positive spread. [67][69] - Live Pigs: The market has a sentiment of withholding sales, and it is necessary to pay attention to the development of the epidemic. The spot price is expected to be strong in the short term, and the futures price is expected to adjust narrowly. [70][71] - Corn: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sales rhythm and downstream replenishment. [72][74] - Sugar: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to be weak. [75] - Cotton: The US cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and the domestic price increase is expected to slow down. It is necessary to pay attention to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 yuan/ton. [76][78] - Eggs: The supply is relatively loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [79] - Fats and Oils: Affected by US sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers, vegetable oils have rebounded in the short term. Different types of oils have their own market characteristics. [4][80][82] - Red Dates: The new - year supply has a slight reduction, and the demand needs to be released. The futures price is expected to be weak, and the spot price is stable. [84] - Apples: The market is light, and it is recommended to close long positions. [85] 3.8 Energy Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price has support at a low level. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton range. [87][88] - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the medium - term is expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton range and consider a long - position strategy for the TA5 - 9 spread. [89][90] - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price follows the raw material. It is recommended to take a similar strategy as PTA and reduce the processing margin on rallies. [91][92] - Bottle Chip: The inventory decline supports the processing margin. It is necessary to pay attention to the restart and commissioning of devices. It is recommended to sell the PR2602 - P - 5500 option on rallies. [93][94] - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic supply is shrinking, but the far - month supply - demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell the EG2605 - C - 4100 option on rallies. [95][97] - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has limited downward space. It is expected to fluctuate in the 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton range. [98] - Styrene: The supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the price has limited upward drive. It is expected to fluctuate in the 6400 - 6700 yuan/ton range. [99][100] - LLDPE: The trading has weakened, and it is recommended to wait and see. [101][102] - PP: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH profit. [102] - Methanol: The spot and basis are strengthening, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after shipping volume decreases. [3][103][104] - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. [104][105] - PVC: The price has rebounded due to news, but the supply - demand is still in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to go short on rallies. [106] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, and the price has no continuous upward drive. It is recommended to short on rallies after a rebound. [107][109] - Glass: The spot price has stabilized, but the market still has pressure. It is recommended to close long positions. [107][110] - Natural Rubber: The price is expected to fluctuate in the 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton range, and it is recommended to wait and see. [110][113] - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 11200 yuan/ton for the BR2602 contract. [113][115]