Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply and demand for live pigs are both increasing ahead of the festival, suggesting that pig prices may experience narrow fluctuations in the short term [23][24] - In the poultry sector, the pre-festival stocking has begun, leading to a rise in white feather broiler prices across the board [26] - The aquaculture sector shows stable prices, with attention drawn to investment opportunities within the sector [41] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agricultural sector increased by 1.82% during the latest trading week, ranking fifth among the primary industries [13] - The planting sector saw significant gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Nongfa Seed Industry (+30.24%) and Shennong Technology (+26.06%) [15] 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.84 CNY/kg, down 1.68% week-on-week, but up 0.59% over two weeks [22] - The average price of piglets is 471 CNY/head, up 3.29% week-on-week [22] 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.74 CNY/kg, up 3.20% week-on-week [26] - The price of broiler chicks is 2.31 CNY/chick, up 5.00% week-on-week [26] 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2377.26 CNY/ton, up 0.33% week-on-week [36] - The average price of domestic wheat is 2529.67 CNY/ton, up 0.18% week-on-week [36] 2.4. Aquaculture Sector - The average price of carp is 20.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 11.11% [41] - The average price of shrimp is 320.00 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.11% [41] 3. Investment Recommendations - For pig farming, companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group [3] - In the white feather chicken sector, recommended companies include Shengnong Development, Yisheng Biological, and Minhe Livestock [3] - In the feed sector, focus on Haida Group due to its increasing overseas feed volume [3]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector is experiencing positive momentum, with the Agricultural ETF (Hua Xia, 516810) showing gains and increased investor interest following the release of the 2026 Central No. 1 Document, which emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - As of February 4, the Agricultural ETF (Hua Xia, 516810) is trading positively, with holdings such as Nongfa Seed Industry rising over 5% [1]. - Other companies like Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, Tianma Technology, and Denghai Seeds are also seeing upward movement [1]. - In the past five days, the ETF has attracted a net inflow of 19.39 million yuan, indicating heightened interest in the sector [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The 2026 Central No. 1 Document sets a target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, alongside a new initiative to enhance grain production capacity by 100 billion jin [1]. - The document promotes the integration of artificial intelligence in agriculture, expanding applications for drones, IoT, and robotics, and accelerating key technological innovations in agricultural bio-manufacturing [1]. - It also outlines plans for extending land contracts for an additional 30 years post-expiration, increasing financial support for agricultural enterprises and farmers, and facilitating the urbanization of agricultural migrants [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - GF Securities interprets the release of the Central No. 1 Document as a significant step towards building a strong agricultural nation, suggesting that there are substantial opportunities for modernization in rural areas [1]. - The emphasis on food security and breeding innovation positions leading seed companies to benefit from advancements in breeding research and the industrialization of biological breeding [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the consumption sector, particularly the consumption ETF (159928), which has seen significant inflows and trading activity [1][3] - The consumption ETF (159928) has recorded a net inflow of over 2.35 billion yuan in the last 20 days, with its latest scale exceeding 23 billion yuan, leading its peers [1][3] - Major stocks within the consumption ETF, such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, have shown positive price movements, indicating a robust market sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - The first central document of the year emphasizes the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, aiming to enhance living conditions and increase farmers' wealth [7][8] - The document sets a hard target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, underscoring the importance of food security [7] - The focus on expanding rural consumption is seen as a key economic task, with strategies to improve both infrastructure and quality of life in rural areas [8] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector is expected to see a recovery, with positive sales growth in various categories, particularly frozen foods and hot pot ingredients [9][10] - The dairy market is experiencing a stabilization in raw milk prices, which is projected to positively impact the meat and dairy pricing cycle in 2026 [10] - The white liquor market is showing signs of bottoming out, with Kweichow Moutai expected to maintain its pricing power during the upcoming festive season [10]

Group 1 - The three major indices opened lower on February 4, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1] - The Tianhong Agricultural ETF (512620) has seen a net inflow of over 100 million yuan in the past four trading days, with a year-to-date share growth of over 34%, making it the top performer among similar funds [1] - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, and includes leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Group 2 - According to Dongfang Securities, 2026 is projected to be a turning point for the agricultural sector, with both breeding and planting expected to drive upward trends in the industry [2] - The swine breeding sector is highlighted as a key area, with strong companies continuing to show profitability and increased dividend rates, which are essential for long-term performance and valuation growth [2] - Recent policies and market dynamics are facilitating the reduction of production capacity in the swine breeding industry, which is expected to enhance long-term performance in the sector [2]

Core Insights - The Central Government's document emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization for China's overall modernization, highlighting the need to strengthen pig production capacity and promote dairy consumption [1] - The agricultural sector is expected to focus on technological empowerment and enhancing the resilience of the industry chain to support high-quality agricultural development [1] Group 1: Agricultural Policy and Market Trends - The Central Government's document outlines key strategies for agricultural modernization, including stabilizing grain production at around 1.4 trillion jin and diversifying oilseed supply [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has dropped to 12.31 yuan per kilogram, with prices in Guangdong nearing 12 yuan, indicating a recovery in breeding sentiment due to positive farming profits [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture has shifted its focus from "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" to "protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation," suggesting a new growth logic centered on technology and innovative models [2] Group 2: Agricultural Index and Investment Opportunities - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Agricultural Index account for 51.02% of the index, including companies like Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yili Group [2] - The Agricultural ETF (516550) closely tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the agricultural sector, which includes beverages, agricultural products, and animal health [2] - Investors without stock accounts can also access agricultural investment opportunities through the Agricultural ETF linked fund (019279) [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown signs of recovery, with the agricultural index rising by 2.23%, ranking 11th among 31 primary industries [12][15]. - The pig price has experienced fluctuations, initially strong but later declining, with an average price of 12.83 CNY/kg for the week, down 1.06% from the previous week [6][17]. - The white feather chicken market has seen a rebound in chick prices, with an average price of 2.7 CNY/chick, and a rise in broiler chicken prices to 3.85 CNY/kg, up 4.05% from the previous week [30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector has rebounded, with the agricultural index increasing by 2.23% [12]. - The pig farming sector continues to face challenges, with a decline in prices despite some recovery in demand [15]. 2. Livestock Industry Chain Tracking 2.1 Pigs - The average pig price fluctuated between 12.9 and 13.0 CNY/kg, ending the week at 12.51 CNY/kg [6][17]. - The average weight of pigs at market was 127.86 kg, down 1.03 kg from the previous week [19]. - The breeding capacity is slowly decreasing, with a December count of 39.61 million breeding sows, down 1.83% from Q3 [20]. 2.2 White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have rebounded to 2.7 CNY/chick, while broiler prices have increased to 3.85 CNY/kg [30]. - The supply of breeding chickens remains sufficient, with 40% of the annual breeding stock imported [30]. 3. Planting Industry Chain Tracking - The national average price for white sugar is 5295 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton [34]. - The price of corn has slightly increased to 2314 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton from the previous week [34].

分析师 1: 各位投资者朋友晚上好，欢迎参加财通农业组织的生猪专家电话会。我是财通证券农业分 析师江璐。那我们可以看到 2025 年，伴随这个猪价一路下跌，整个生猪养殖行业从盈利 转为亏损。能繁母猪产能也进入了一个区划的阶段。那当前时点，其实关于，对于这个 2026 年的一个猪价走势，包括说能繁母猪产能的一个后续的变动。其实还存在诸多的疑 问。那今天晚上我们有幸邀请到了农业农村部生猪预警专家，中国畜牧业协会的石守定老 师，来跟我们做一个分享。 那要不石老师，要不您先基于您监测的这个数据，或者您了解到的一个行业的一个情况， 从大的方向上，方向上来分享一下您对于这个 2026 年一个猪周期的一个走势的判断。包 括说这个猪价的一个大概的节奏，或者说这个高点的，大概这个能看到多少？要不您先分 享一下您的一个观点。 农业农村部生猪预警专家石守定: 这咱是内部的讨论的话，我们就随意的说一说说点东西。现在这个数据其实也算是比较明 了，只不过就是有一些东西出现了一些不太一致的地方。关于产能问题，现在大家其实有 分歧，但是趋势的还是比较明确的。就是整体认为，就是说从高点下来的幅度不是特别的 大。但是这个产能怎么来判断？它是对应 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agriculture Sector**: The focus is on enhancing the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the relief achievements in beef and dairy industries, and promoting supply-demand balance and healthy development [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Livestock Industry**: - Emphasis on strengthening pig production capacity regulation and consolidating the relief of beef and dairy industries to ensure a balanced supply and demand [1][5]. - Introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption [2][6]. - **Crop Production**: - Stability in grain and oil production is prioritized, with efforts to enhance soybean production capacity and expand the production space for oilseed crops such as rapeseed, peanuts, and tea oil [3][7]. - Promotion of stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [4][8]. - **Seed Industry**: - Implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biotechnology [9]. - **Agricultural Technology**: - Development of new agricultural productivity tailored to local conditions, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding application scenarios for drones, IoT, and robotics [10]. - **Agricultural Trade**: - Coordination between agricultural trade and production is encouraged, with a push for diversification in agricultural imports [11][12]. - Cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises and support for expanding exports of advantageous specialty agricultural products [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Focus**: Attention is drawn to the effectiveness of livestock production capacity regulation, the cyclical reversal of beef and dairy industries, and the orderly advancement of seed industry revitalization [15]. - **Key Investment Targets**: Notable companies include YouRan Agriculture, Modern Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [16]. - **Smart Agriculture**: The company TopCloud Agriculture is highlighted as a noteworthy entity in the smart agriculture sector [17].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview: Agriculture Grain Security - Grain production is stable at approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with a new initiative to enhance grain capacity by an additional 100 billion jin, focusing on increasing the yield of grain and oil crops on a large scale [1][5] - The document emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable prices for key agricultural products, including setting minimum purchase prices for rice and wheat, and improving the target price policy for cotton [4][8] Oilseed Production - Efforts are being made to consolidate and enhance soybean production while expanding the production capacity of rapeseed, peanuts, and oil tea to diversify oil supply [2][6] Other Crop Industries - The document highlights the need to promote stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [3][7] Livestock and Dairy - There is a focus on strengthening comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the recovery of beef and dairy industries, and promoting a balanced and healthy development of supply and demand, with multiple measures to boost dairy consumption [9][13] - Support for the development of silage corn and alfalfa production is mentioned, aiming to transform and upgrade grassland livestock farming [10] Aquaculture and Forestry - The promotion of deep-sea aquaculture and modern ocean fishing is emphasized, along with the active development of forest foods and bio-agriculture [11] Export and Anti-smuggling Measures - Support for expanding the export of advantageous and characteristic agricultural products, along with strict legal measures against agricultural product smuggling [12] Agricultural Technology - The document calls for the implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biological breeding [13] - There is a push for the development of high-end intelligent agricultural machinery suitable for hilly areas, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding applications of drones, IoT, and robotics [13][14] Investment Recommendations - Key investment opportunities are suggested in the livestock and pig farming sectors, with specific companies recommended for focus, including: - Livestock: Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, China Shengmu, etc. - Pig farming: Muyuan Foods, Juxing Agriculture, Dekang Agriculture, Wen's Food, Lihua Agriculture, Tiankang Biological, etc. [13] Agricultural Technology Companies - A recommendation to pay attention to agricultural technology firms, particularly those involved in genetically modified seeds and low-altitude, AI-driven agricultural enterprises [14]

宏观策略（股指期货） 国资委：央企要着眼开辟增长"第二曲线" 日度报告——综合晨报 美国政府结束部分停摆状态，股指盘中 V 型 反转 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-04 受消息面扰动，股指盘中 V 型反转。在宏观空窗期、且叠加贵 金属风波宣泄后，股市以题材、概念为主的结构牛模式再度回 归。 宏观策略（黄金） 美国政府结束部分停摆状态 综 合 黄金大幅反弹收复前日失地，市场恐慌式下跌阶段结束，在触 碰到 60 日均线后亦有抄底资金介入，短期金价步入震荡阶段。 美联储官员陆续发表讲话，米兰表示还需降 100bp。 晨 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 报 米兰称今年需降息逾一个百分点 美军击落伊朗无人机，地缘局势持续高温，市场风险偏好走低， 美元指数震荡。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） 印度：1 月份棕榈油进口量激增 51% 印度 1 月棕榈油进口预计大幅增加，1 月马棕高频数据延续减产 预测 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存大幅下降 油价反弹，美伊摩擦事件导致风险溢价略回升。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 吉大港彻底停摆 弱现实与地缘扰动因素交织，预计短期 04 合约波动幅度仍将较 大建 ...