铜周报 海外库存错配，铜价强势上行 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价强势上行，主因美国9月核心PCE低于预期助推降 息情绪升温，某大宗商品巨头上周大量注销LME亚洲库仓 单引发海外货源紧缺担忧，叠加市场普遍猜测未来美联储 影子主席将坚持鸽派立场；此外，美国ADP就业人数以外 下滑进一步助推12月降息预期，海外市场风险偏好回升。 基本面来看，海外中断矿山复产缓慢，中国铜冶炼小组 (CSPT)联合声明2026年或减产约10%，社会库存低位下探， 内贸现货升水上行，近月盘面C结构收缩。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 12 月 8 日 ⚫ 整体来看 ...

谁在把铜往美国口袋里搬？问题先摆着，别急着笑着点头，事情比你想的复杂得多，且让我们把这条线拽紧，慢慢拉扯。 AI数据中心，这个词值得重复，够形象——算力为王的时代，电要输得进来，数据要连得上去，铜是桥梁，是血管，是神经，用铜不是情怀，是物理需 求，一个大型AI中心用铜是传统的三到五倍，这数字不是吓人，是事实，读懂它，才能读懂这波购买的动因。 再往里看，美国在抢，抢的不只是铜，抢的是定价权，是产业链话语权，是未来算力部署的先手棋，金融亦配合其声势，美元降息窗口一开，资本找硬资产 避风，这硬资产里，铜站着，既能工业消耗，又能金融博弈，恰好合拍。 这合拍的结果显而易见，交易员开始押注，摩科瑞说价格可能上冲12000到15000美元一吨，听着像预测，更像励志，结果是下游要买单，家电、新能源车、 电子厂的账单会变长，消费者的口袋会被动摇，谁来负责这账本的增加，这才是问题。 这不是普通的涨价，这或是一场金融战的延伸，战术是用政策把资源圈起来，用资本把价格推高，再把高成本输出给别人，这逻辑冷冰冰，却也合乎经济学 的某些教科书——资源稀缺 需求垄断=利润重新分配，重分配的对象是制造业，是消费者。 2025年12月，铜价一夜暴 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 12 月 7 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 2026 年国际金融市场或面临风高浪急的考验 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 资产表现回顾 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.28%，沪深 300 股指期货上涨 1.58%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 9.49%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 0.57%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率收于 1.85%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率持平于 1.00%；十年国债收益 率上行 1BP 至 1.85%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.02%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。影响可能来自几个方面：一 是美联储货币政策的不确定性，美国总统特朗普表示，他计划在 2026 年 初公布下一任美联储主席人选，有" ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 王嘉琦 每经编辑｜段炼 高涵 ◆12月4日LME铜价冲破11500美元/吨，12月5日再创新高，年内涨32.77%。点燃这根导火索的，是瑞士大宗商品交易巨头Mercuria（摩科瑞）从伦敦交易 所亚洲仓库一次性注销了超4万吨铜库存，加上贸易巨头们正争相将全球各地的铜运往美国。短期看，美国关税预期形成套利空间，长期则受AI与能源转 型带来的需求激增影响。但铜供应面临多重瓶颈，华尔街对铜价走势存在分歧。 ◆当地时间12月4日晚，美国白宫在其网站上悄然上线本届美国政府的《国家安全战略》。新版《国家安全战略》"重申并执行门罗主义，恢复美国在西半 球的霸权地位"将成为本届美国政府的战略重点。 ◆SpaceX估值超越OpenAI，或翻倍至8000亿美元；迎战谷歌Gemini 3，OpenAI将"紧急提前"发布GPT-5.2；"影子主席"哈塞特：美联储下周应降息25个基 点；奈飞720亿美元吞下华纳兄弟，哈利•波特等经典IP将易主。 这一举动使得当日LME铜注销仓单总量飙升至56875吨，占交易所总库存的35%，其中仅Mercuria的操作就占了约24%。注销仓单意味着这些铜被标记 为"提走待运"，不再计 ...

Core Insights - LME copper prices surged past $11,500 per ton, reaching a new high of $11,641.5 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 32.77% [2][5] - The price surge was triggered by Mercuria's $460 million withdrawal of over 40,000 tons of copper from LME's Asian warehouses, affecting about 24% of the exchange's registered inventory [2][5][7] - The copper market is experiencing a structural supply crisis driven by various factors, including U.S. tariff expectations and increasing demand from AI infrastructure and energy transition [2][8] Market Dynamics - Mercuria's withdrawal led to a significant increase in LME copper cancellation receipts, with 56,875 tons canceled on that day, representing 35% of total inventory [7] - Analysts suggest that the expectation of future copper shortages or price increases is prompting market participants to secure physical copper in advance [7][12] Arbitrage Opportunities - The primary driver of the copper "scramble" is the arbitrage opportunity created by U.S. tariff expectations, with CME copper futures prices significantly higher than LME prices [9][12] - U.S. refined copper imports surged over 100% year-on-year to 1.19 million tons from January to August, with LME inventories rapidly depleting [9][12] Long-term Demand Drivers - The rise in copper prices is supported by structural demand increases from AI and global energy transition initiatives, with predictions of a sixfold increase in copper usage in data centers by 2050 [15][16] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that renewable energy projects will create an additional annual demand of up to 4.2 million tons of copper by 2030 [15] Supply Constraints - The development of new copper mines is lengthy, often taking nearly 30 years from exploration to commercial production, leading to supply bottlenecks [18][19] - Existing major copper mines are facing declining ore grades and rising extraction costs, contributing to supply instability [18] Market Sentiment - Wall Street analysts are divided on the future of copper prices, with some predicting structural shortages and others cautioning against current price levels being unsustainable [20][24] - Despite differing views on short-term price movements, there is a consensus on the long-term growth of copper demand driven by AI, energy transition, and electrification trends [27]

铜价最近涨的有些离谱了，在伦敦金属交易所当中，铜价一度达到了每吨11540美元的历史高位，并且 根据预测，国际铜价将会继续刷新历史新高。 并且随着市场普遍预测特朗普政府明年会对铜加征关税，市面上有大量铜等金属被被运往美国，全球铜 库存很有可能很快就会降到危急的低位水平。 如今，铜已经成为了中美博弈的新战场，全球50万吨铜被运往美国，妄图卡中国脖子，中国三大狠招直 接破局！ 铜价大涨 根据媒体的报道，12月3日的时候，英国伦敦金属交易所铜价格一度触及到了11540的历史高位，并且在 未来还将继续刷新历史最高。 为什么铜价会上涨的这么猛呢？这是因为受到智利矿山坍塌事故的影响，全球矿业与大宗商品巨头嘉能 可近日已经宣布，可能会下调今年铜产能至85万吨-87.5万吨。 这样的预测和2018年的时候相比减少了将近4成，并且该公司还下调了2026年的铜产量预期，物以稀为 贵，全球铜供应链的趋紧直接推高了铜价。 然而铜价上涨的原因远远不仅仅是全球铜供应链的趋紧，现如今市场普遍预测，特朗普政府会在明年的 时候对铜加征关税， 所以为了规避关税，近期大量铜在内的金属都被运往了美国，其实今年7月份的时候，特朗普就对铜的 关税进行了 ...

◆12月4日LME铜价冲破11500美元/吨，12月5日再创新高，年内涨32.77%。点燃这根导火索的，是瑞士 大宗商品交易巨头Mercuria（摩科瑞）从伦敦交易所亚洲仓库一次性注销了超4万吨铜库存，加上贸易 巨头们正争相将全球各地的铜运往美国。短期看，美国关税预期形成套利空间，长期则受AI与能源转 型带来的需求激增影响。但铜供应面临多重瓶颈，华尔街对铜价走势存在分歧。 每日经济新闻 WEEKLY国际财经 2025 | 12 | 06 焦点 E 铜价突破11500美元 场由贸易巨头引爆的 "新石油"争夺战 白宫网站悄悄上线 新版《国家安全战略》 恢复西半球霸权成战略重点 ◆当地时间12月4日晚，美国白宫在其网站上悄然上线本届美国政府的《国家安全战略》。新版《国家 安全战略》"重申并执行门罗主义，恢复美国在西半球的霸权地位"将成为本届美国政府的战略重点。 ◆SpaceX估值超越OpenAI，或翻倍至8000亿美元；迎战谷歌Gemini 3，OpenAI将"紧急提前"发布GPT- 5.2；"影子主席"哈塞特：美联储下周应降息25个基点；奈飞720亿美元吞下华纳兄弟，哈利•波特等经典 IP将易主。 铜价突破115 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new strategic blueprint presented by CEO Jorde focuses on "focusing and streamlining the business" to enhance the value of the asset portfolio and aims to make Rio Tinto the most valuable metal mining company globally [1][2][11]. Strategic Framework - The strategy is built on three main pillars: operational focus on iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium; efficient project execution for organic growth; and disciplined capital allocation to maintain a strong balance sheet [2][12]. - The company plans to streamline its core business units to three, concentrating on profitable assets, reducing resource duplication, and enhancing horizontal collaboration [2][14]. Asset Management - Rio Tinto intends to sell $5 billion to $10 billion worth of existing assets, including land, infrastructure, and mining assets, while evaluating the strategic options for its titanium and borate businesses [2][14]. - The company is exploring a potential asset swap with China Aluminum Group, which could reduce the latter's stake in Rio Tinto by 11% while providing more resources to Rio Tinto [3][14]. Cost and Efficiency Goals - The company aims to reduce unit costs by 4% from 2024 to 2030, achieving annual productivity improvements and cost savings of $650 million [4][15]. - Rio Tinto has already realized $370 million in related benefits this year, with the remainder expected by Q1 2026 [5][16]. Production and Financial Outlook - The company forecasts a 7% increase in production by 2025 and a 3% compound annual growth rate until 2030, driven by projects like the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine and the Simandou iron ore project [7][17]. - In 2026, the Pilbara iron ore sales are expected to remain between 323 million and 338 million tons, with copper production projected at 800,000 to 870,000 tons [8][18]. Focus on New Energy Minerals - New energy minerals are a strategic priority, with plans to bring lithium projects online by 2028, targeting an annual capacity of approximately 200,000 tons [9][19]. - The company has raised its copper production guidance for this year to 860,000 to 875,000 tons, while lowering unit cost guidance to $0.80 to $1.00 per pound [10][20]. Capital Expenditure and Sustainability Goals - Capital expenditures are expected to be around $11 billion for the next two years, with a return to below $10 billion annually post-2028 [21]. - Rio Tinto aims to reduce carbon emissions by 50% and cut related capital expenditures for 2030 to $1 billion to $2 billion, down from $5 billion to $6 billion, reflecting a significant reduction of at least 66% [21].

Core Points - Glencore held its 2025 Capital Markets Day to present key information to investors [1] Group 1 - The event featured a presentation by Martin Fewings, Head of Investor Relations & Communications [1] - The presentation included multiple slides, indicating a comprehensive overview of the company's strategy and performance [1] - A Q&A session was scheduled to take place after the presentation of the slides [1]

Group 1 - The core narrative around AI as a savior for tech stocks is being questioned, particularly after Microsoft and OpenAI lowered sales expectations for AI agents, leading to a 2.5% drop in Microsoft's stock price, indicating investor skepticism towards unproven promises [1] - The market is demanding tangible evidence of AI's commercial viability, focusing on actual sales and revenue rather than optimistic projections [1][7] - The metals sector is thriving, with companies like Alcoa and Glencore making bold claims about their future in copper production, reflecting a preference for real, foundational assets over speculative narratives [1] Group 2 - Speculation around "robotics" stocks surged due to perceived policy benefits, with stocks like Nauticus and iRobot seeing significant price increases, highlighting the gap between market imagination and actual industrial implementation [2] - Chinese concept stocks are under pressure, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declining, as international investors remain cautious about Chinese companies amid performance fluctuations and regulatory concerns [3] - Micron's decision to exit the Crucial consumer business in favor of AI data centers indicates a shift towards larger, more lucrative clients, suggesting increased concentration in the supply chain and potential challenges for smaller firms [3] Group 3 - Financial institutions like Morgan Stanley are considering transferring risks associated with data center loans, indicating the financial system's adaptation to the expanding needs of AI infrastructure, which may introduce systemic risks [5] - The move of Apple's design chief to Meta to lead AI-driven consumer product design signifies a shift in competition from engineering to user experience, emphasizing the importance of making AI accessible and practical for consumers [6] Group 4 - The market is prioritizing cash-generating assets over speculative concepts, with a focus on three critical questions: the ability to convert imagination into orders, orders into revenue, and revenue into sustainable growth [7] - Investors are cautioned against equating stock prices with business performance, promotional activities with actual deliveries, and visions with tangible assets, stressing the need for clarity in distinguishing between reality and hype [8]