Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The retail sector is expected to show varied performance in Q4 2025, with significant growth in certain segments like gold and jewelry, while others like supermarkets and department stores are projected to decline [1][2][4] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming Spring Festival season, suggesting that sectors with performance elasticity, such as duty-free shops and certain tourist attractions, should be closely monitored [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of AI applications in enhancing e-commerce marketing, indicating a shift towards new retail strategies [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook - Gold and Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% in Q4 2025 - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% in Q4 2025 - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 1.2 to 2.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit growth of 150% to 254% in Q4 2025 - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion in Q4 2025, compared to a loss of 1.03 billion in the same period last year [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30% in Q4 2025, with adjusted net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarkets and Department Stores - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a decline of 22.4% year-on-year, with a projected drop of 92.5% in Q4 2025 - Wangfujing: Expected net profit loss of 0.45 to 0.23 billion, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% in Q4 2025 - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a net profit growth rate of -3.1% in Q4 2025 - Home Home Joy: Expected net profit of 198 to 228 million, with a growth rate of 50.1% to 72.8% in Q4 2025 [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% in Q4 2025 - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% in Q4 2025 - Su Mei Da: Expected net profit of 1.355 billion, with a growth rate of 70.8% in Q4 2025 [3] Social Services Sector Outlook - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% in Q4 2025 - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% in Q4 2025 - Jiuhua Tourism: Expected net profit growth of 0% to 15% in Q4 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, including duty-free, certain tourist attractions, and gold and jewelry [9] - For 2026, the report suggests looking at service consumption and product consumption, particularly in duty-free and travel chains, as well as undervalued segments with improving fundamentals [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景气度景区：陕西旅游、三峡旅游、黄山旅游、九华旅游；行业触底迎来拐点酒店板块：锦江酒店/首 旅酒店/华住/亚朵；销售数据持续提升中国中免/珠免。 【兴证社服】坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 【兴证社服】坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景 ...

（板块转发：兴证社服） 坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 （板块转发：兴证社服） 坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景气度景区：陕西旅游、三峡旅游、黄山旅游、九华旅游；行业触底迎来拐点酒店板块：锦江酒店/首 旅酒店/华住/亚朵；销售数据持续提升中国中免/珠免。 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 社会服务 出行链热度攀升，政策+需求延续出游高景气 本周出行链表现较好。本周社会服务指数涨 3.20%，跑赢上证综指 2.37 个百分点，板块涨幅前 10 标的中，出行链个股过半。其中，三峡旅游 +18.73%、九华旅游+10.89%、大连圣亚+6.01%、祥源文旅+5.44%、锦 江酒店+5.18%、首旅酒店+4.67%。 政策端：服务消费利好政策持续出台。从 2025 年法定节假日增加 2 天， 到各类政策文件提及保障休息休假权益、优化学生假期安排、落实带薪错 峰休假、大力发展体育旅游产业、鼓励基层工会每年最多可开展 4 次春秋 游活动等表述，均体现出政策端对 出行链等文体旅消费的鼓励。1 月 22 日，苏州市十七届人大五次会议上，政府工作报告明确 2026 年将推行中 小学春秋假。1 月 1 日起，面向中度以上失能老年人发放养老服务消费补 贴的政策在全国正式实施。我们预计，以补贴形式利好出行链的服务消费 政策仍有望出台。 需求端：出游热点时段连续。当前学生寒假来临，2 月春节临近，3 月全 国两会召开，4 月中小学春 ...

Market Overview - The tourism and scenic area sector increased by 0.42% on January 23, with Sanxia Tourism leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the tourism sector included: - Sanxia Tourism (002627) with a closing price of 9.70, up 3.63%, and a trading volume of 349,500 shares, totaling 341 million yuan [1] - Zhongxin Tourism (002707) closed at 8.38, up 2.07%, with a trading volume of 561,700 shares, totaling 469 million yuan [1] - Sizhang Tourism (600749) closed at 17.63, up 1.97%, with a trading volume of 70,000 shares, totaling 12.2 million yuan [1] - Conversely, some stocks experienced declines: - Shaanxi Tourism (603402) closed at 159.26, down 1.69%, with a trading volume of 22,500 shares, totaling 362 million yuan [2] - Xi'an Tourism (000610) closed at 12.99, down 1.37%, with a trading volume of 167,300 shares, totaling 218 million yuan [2] - Songcheng Performing Arts (300144) closed at 8.49, down 0.47%, with a trading volume of 402,500 shares, totaling 34.2 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The tourism and scenic area sector saw a net outflow of 210 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 192 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Jiuhua Tourism (603199) with a net inflow of 10.81 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 14.80 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism (600576) had a net inflow of 10.40 million yuan from main funds, with a net outflow of 7.35 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Yunnan Tourism (002059) recorded a net inflow of 6.79 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 3.12 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights structural opportunities in service consumption, particularly in the jewelry market during the Spring Festival season. It emphasizes the strong performance of high-end beauty brands and the recovery of high-end consumption trends [2][4][41]. Summary by Sections Tourism and Cultural Services - During the New Year's holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, indicating a robust recovery in the tourism sector. The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the winter tourism peak, such as Changbai Mountain and Emei Mountain tourism [3][35]. Beauty and Personal Care - The K-shaped consumption trend is evident, with a growing demand for high-end beauty products and an increase in the penetration of OTC retail channels. The online sales of beauty products are projected to reach approximately 217.08 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [4][26]. Retail and Trendy Toys - The high-end consumption recovery is expected to extend to high-end beauty, luxury apparel, and high-end services. The trendy toy sector is projected to see online sales of approximately 72.2619 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40% [4][12]. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices are expected to remain strong during the Spring Festival, with limited declines in consumption volume. The report anticipates significant growth for major brands during this period, recommending companies with a high proportion of fixed-price products [4][43].

行 华福证券 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 黄金珠宝：金价高位走强，关注春节旺季销售。春节旺季金价走强， 民众基于"买涨"心理，旺季期间预计行业消费量下降有限，而金价同比 大幅上涨，主要品牌 1-2 月同店有望保持较快增长。建议关注一口价产品 占比高的潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福，其他建议关注高股息的周大生、菜 百股份。 华福证券 风险提示 宏观经济波动；需求不及预期；行业竞争加剧。 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 | 分析师： ...