Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant advancements and strategic developments of Nipe Mining Machinery during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on automation, innovation, and international market expansion [1][5][6]. Group 1: Automation and Innovation - Nipe Mining Machinery has implemented a fully automated welding flexible production line, enhancing welding quality and production capacity compared to traditional manual methods [1]. - The company has invested heavily in R&D, with expenditures increasing from 25.17 million yuan in 2021 to 38.99 million yuan in 2024, focusing on wear resistance, energy efficiency, and intelligent technology [3]. - The introduction of the second-generation composite liner has significantly improved the lifespan of mining equipment, achieving nearly double the usage duration compared to traditional metal liners [3]. Group 2: International Market Expansion - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," Nipe Mining Machinery has maintained over 50% of its revenue from overseas markets, with the overseas revenue share rising to 54.88% in the first half of the year [5][6]. - The company has established production bases in Zambia, Chile, Serbia, and Peru, with the Peru factory marking a significant milestone in its international strategy [5][6]. - Future plans include increasing the overseas revenue share to over 80% and becoming a leader in the global mining equipment sector [6]. Group 3: Strategic Planning for the Future - Nipe Mining Machinery has outlined three key strategies for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan": strategic investment in mineral resources, global capacity layout and market expansion, and technological innovation [7]. - The company aims to capitalize on the growing demand for key minerals like copper and gold, enhancing its collaboration with mining clients [7][8]. - The focus on creating a dynamic ecosystem through technology barriers, global networks, and deep customer relationships is seen as essential for overcoming market competition [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on non-ferrous resource stocks, particularly copper, precious metals, and cobalt, suggesting an adjustment to a buy rating [1]. Core Insights - The copper supply issue has deepened market understanding of metal resource supply and demand dynamics. Despite a significant decline in China's real estate sector in 2023, various non-ferrous metals have shown unexpectedly strong consumption [1]. - The report highlights a notable increase in precious metals, reinforcing the logic of de-dollarization, with central bank gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in nearly 30 years [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring new material stocks related to technological growth, alongside traditional non-ferrous metals like copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tungsten [1]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The weekly price of antimony ingots is reported at 175,000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.96%. The domestic antimony market is still under pressure from oversupply [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index saw a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among sectors. Precious metals led with a 5.55% increase, while small metals and new materials saw declines [4]. - The largest weekly gain was observed in cobalt prices, which rose by 12.74% due to surging demand from the battery industry and tightening export policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [4]. Copper Market - As of September 25, copper inventories in major regions decreased by 0.88 million tons to 14.89 million tons, down from 15.43 million tons year-on-year. The report anticipates a shift from surplus to a slight deficit in global copper supply-demand balance by 2026 [4]. - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has faced operational setbacks, leading to a significant downward revision of expected copper output for 2025 and 2026 [4]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices, driven by strong fundamentals and ongoing supply issues [4]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories decreased to 617,000 tons, indicating a clear trend of destocking. The report notes a significant increase in aluminum cable exports and a recovery in production rates [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown upward trends, with gold reaching 3,761 USD/ounce (+2.1%) and silver at 46.055 USD/ounce (+7.0%). The report attributes this to expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Platinum prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 12.2% in the past week, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic data [5]. New Materials and Energy - The report highlights the robust demand for lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate prices showing slight increases. The cobalt market is expected to face a significant supply gap in the coming years due to export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. - The report also discusses the potential for uranium prices to rise due to supply constraints and increasing demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected return that will exceed the CSI 300 index by 10% or more over the next six months [4]. Core Views - The copper market may enter a bull market phase due to significant production cuts at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, disrupting the global supply-demand balance [1]. - Precious metals prices continue to rise, with silver breaking through historical highs, driven by geopolitical risks and monetary policy uncertainties [2]. - The G7 and EU are discussing setting a price floor for rare earths, which is expected to positively impact rare earth prices in the short term [1][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME copper closing at $10,205 per ton (+2.1%) and SHFE copper at 82,470 CNY per ton (+3.3%) [3]. - Supply constraints are evident as Freeport announced a production cut of over 200,000 tons this year due to a landslide at the Grasberg mine [3]. - Demand remains stable, with copper rod and wire cable enterprises operating at 73.78% and 65.44% capacity, respectively [3]. - Social copper inventory as of September 19 is 140,100 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons from the previous week [3]. Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver closed at $3,756.8 and $46.1 per ounce, reflecting increases of 2.2% and 8.2% respectively [2]. - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 0.2% in August, aligning with expectations, while geopolitical tensions have increased due to the U.S. Congress's actions and international recognition of Palestine [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,649 per ton, down 1.0% from the previous week, while SHFE aluminum was at 20,755 CNY per ton, down 0.24% [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production cost is approximately 16,283 CNY per ton, with industry average profits expanding to around 4,487 CNY per ton [4]. Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 273,600 CNY per ton, up 1.9% [9]. - Market attention is shifting back to fundamentals, with slow recovery in Myanmar and low inventory providing price support [9]. Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices have shown slight declines, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 562,500 CNY per ton and terbium oxide at 7,050,000 CNY per ton [10]. - The G7 and EU's consideration of a price floor for rare earths is expected to provide short-term support for prices [10].

盘面上，科技股全线回调，算力、人工智能方向领跌。化纤板块逆市走强，神马股份涨停。军工板块走 高，成飞集成、湘电股份涨停。风电概念活跃，明阳智能、吉鑫科技等涨停。 9月26日，A股三大指数小幅低开后震荡调整。截至收盘，沪指跌0.65%，深证成指跌1.76%，创业板指跌 2.6%。 半导体产业链拉升 半导体产业链午后发力，联动科技、晶盛机电涨逾10%，华虹公司涨近6%，芯联集成、台基股份、聚辰 股份跟涨。 | 提 | 代码 名称 | | ж幅981 | 现价 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 塞微微电 688325 | | k 17.99 | 111.16 | 16.95 | | 2 | 688249 晶合集成 | K | 16.63 | 32.90 | 4.69 | | 3 | 301369 联动科技 | R | 16.15 | 93.06 | 12.94 | | ব | 300303 談 於电 | R | 8.41 | 7.22 | 0.56 | | 5 | 688123 聚辰股份 | ાર્ | 7.66 | 142.07 | 10.11 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.65%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.60% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.1 trillion, a decrease of over 200 billion compared to the previous day [2] - The market is showing increased divergence as the holiday approaches, with trading volume relatively dull compared to last week, but volatility is on the rise [3] Sector Performance - The market saw a broad adjustment, with most industry sectors declining. Wind power equipment, chemical fiber, fertilizer, and insurance sectors showed gains, while technology sectors such as gaming, consumer electronics, electronic components, internet services, communication equipment, and software development faced significant declines [6] - Technology stocks experienced a widespread retreat, particularly in computing power sectors, with companies like Zhongheng Electric, Lianang Micro, and Qingshan Paper hitting their daily limit down. Major stocks like Inspur Information and Industrial Fulian also saw substantial drops [8] - Copper-related stocks performed well against the trend, with companies like Jingyi Co. achieving three consecutive limit-up days, and Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also rising. This was influenced by supply concerns following a landslide at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which announced "force majeure" due to production stoppage [9] Investment Sentiment - As the National Day holiday approaches, investors face a classic dilemma of whether to hold stocks or cash. The market is experiencing increased volatility and accelerated sector rotation [19] - The market's profitability is declining, with only 32% of stocks rising this week, marking a low point in the current uptrend [21] - Historical data indicates that the probability of index declines in the five trading days leading up to the National Day holiday is 60%, suggesting a cautious outlook for the near term [21] Future Outlook - The technology sector has been a major contributor to the recent index gains, but the current crowded positioning indicates a demand for adjustment. The TMT sector has contributed 42% to the overall A-share index increase since June 23, with a trading volume share of 37% [25] - Given the historical trend of poor performance before the National Day holiday, there is a likelihood of profit-taking, and sectors with strong bottom support signals, such as banking and insurance, may be more favorable [26] - The market is expected to remain in a downward trend with a solid base, and while the medium to long-term upward momentum is still sufficient, more definitive trends may emerge post-October [27]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.65% ，深证成指跌 1.76% ，创业板指跌 2.60% 。 沪深两市成交额超过 2.1 万亿，较昨日缩量逾 2000 亿。 日历效应正在演绎，临近节前，本周市场分歧加剧，成交量相对上周暗淡，但波动幅度却不断加大。 节假日海外市场走势、新关税、三季度末基金调仓等因素，为节后 A 股走势带来了不确定性。 这个时候，该避避风头了吗？ 科技股全线回调 01 金属铜概念股逆势走强，精艺股份三连板，江西铜业、铜陵有色跟涨。 消息面上，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业 "内卷式"竞争。同日全球第二大铜矿 - 印尼 格拉斯伯格矿区因泥石流事故宣布"不可抗力"而停产。作为全球第二大铜矿， Grasberg 矿山的突然停产立即引 发市场对供应中断的担忧。 风电股反复走强，吉鑫科技 2 连板，明阳智能、威力传动涨停，日月股份触及涨停。 | | | 风电概念股涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 √ | | 1 | 300 ...

沪深两市半日成交额为1.37万亿元，较上个交易日缩量1733亿元。个股涨跌互现，市场共2723只个股上 涨，53只个股涨停，2526只个股下跌。 从板块看，发电设备、石油化工、汽车、软饮料、化纤行业等板块领涨；此前涨幅较为显著的互联网、 制药、电脑硬件、电子元器件等板块出现回调，摩尔线程、服务器概念个股走弱。 港股方面，上午主要股指集体收跌。截至午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.65%，恒生科技指数跌1.04%。大型科 技股集体低迷，其中小米集团跌超5%，阿里巴巴、京东跌近2%。 有色金属板块延续活跃 今日上午，有色金属板块延续活跃，中钨高新（000657）、腾远钴业（301219）均涨超5%。 | 序号 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ 总市值 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | | 5.33% 428亿 106.43% | | വ 腾远钻业 | 70.37 | 5.33% 207亿 57.42% | | ന 兴业银锡 | 28.31 - - | 4.31% 503亿 155.49% | | 4 江西铜业 | 31.56 | 4.30% 1000亿 57.42% | | 5 | 3.91 ...

Group 1 - The copper sector has seen significant price increases, with the copper index rising by 5.13% to 3581.38 points on September 25, 2023, and individual stocks like Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum hitting their daily limits [1][2] - Copper prices reached new highs, with LME copper touching $10,485 per ton on September 25, 2023, and Shanghai copper reaching 82,980 yuan per ton, marking the highest levels since July 2024 [1][3] - The suspension of mining operations at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine due to a landslide has raised concerns about copper supply, with expectations that production levels may not return to pre-accident levels until 2027 [3][4] Group 2 - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased from 73,490 yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 82,540 yuan per ton by September 25, 2023, reflecting a 12.31% increase [2] - Major copper companies in the A-share market have also seen stock price increases, with companies like Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing over 100% gains year-to-date [2] - The Grasberg mine accounts for approximately 3% of global copper supply, and its production loss is expected to impact global supply significantly, supporting higher copper prices [3][4] Group 3 - The Grasberg mine's production halt is not an isolated incident, as other copper mines, such as the Kamoa-Kakula mine in Africa, have also faced operational disruptions earlier this year [5][6] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum are planning to expand their copper production capabilities, aiming for a target of 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [7] - Zijin Mining has gained control over the Giant Dragon Copper Mine, which is expected to significantly increase its production capacity by 2025 [8] Group 4 - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to experience high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the market [4][9] - The rising copper prices are expected to impact downstream industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper demand is significantly higher compared to traditional energy sources [8]

申万宏源指出，短期关税暂停、供给扰动、降息预期强化下铜价偏强，长期看家电补贴持续、电网投资 增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望抬升。 今日（9月26日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）逆市活跃，场内价格盘中涨超2%， 现涨0.88%，冲击日线3连阳。拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨57.80%， 大幅跑赢沪指（24.44%）、沪深300（27.97%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，腾远钴业涨超6%，西部超导涨逾5%，江西铜业、贵州铂业、兴业银锡等个股跟涨。 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.25 。注：中证有色金属指数近 5 个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020 年， 35.84% ； 2021 年， 35.89% ； 2022 年， -19.22% ； 2023 年， -10.43% ； 2024 年， 2.96% 。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。 消息面上，重点关注铜和锂方向： 1、铜方面，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg发生泥石流事故，已暂停生产。Freeport ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations as the holiday approached, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing initial gains before narrowing. The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw significant inflows, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) initially rose over 2%, with net subscriptions reaching 15 million units, translating to over 20 million yuan in net inflows by 10:15 AM [1]. - The index components of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF showed mixed performance, with the copper sector leading gains, particularly Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 4% [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) covers a broad range of metals, with copper accounting for 30% of its composition, making it a leading index in terms of copper and gold content [4]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is addressing the "involution" competition in copper smelting, proposing measures to control capacity expansion [7]. - Global refined copper consumption is projected at 28.65 million tons in 2024, with China alone consuming 17 million tons, highlighting the country's dominant position in the market [8]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts expected to strengthen copper prices [10]. - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, which is anticipated to support gold prices in the long term [11]. - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side policies, demand recovery, and global economic trends [11].