2026 年 3 月 1 日 行业研究 中东地缘局势升级，油气、油服、油运长期价值凸显 ——石油化工行业周报第 440 期（20260223—20260301） 要点 美以对伊朗发动空袭，中东地缘政治局势全面升级。 2 月 28 日，以色列与美 国对伊朗首都德黑兰发动空袭。截至 3 月 1 日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊在空 袭中身亡，伊朗革命卫队称对以色列和美国军事基地的"最猛烈"进攻行动即 将开始，同时宣布，作为石油和天然气运输重要航道的霍尔木兹海峡已不再安 全，因此于 2 月 28 日对船只关闭。国际油轮交通监测系统实时数据显示，霍 尔木兹海峡周边海域油轮航行速度普遍降至零，大量船只停航避险。中东地缘 政治冲突全面升级。 油价快速上行，市场担忧伊核协议谈判中断、原油运输风险。截至 2 月 27 日， 布伦特、WTI 原油分别报收 73.21、67.29 美元/桶，较年初分别上涨 20.2%、 17.2%。本轮中东地缘冲突对原油市场的影响包括：（1）伊核谈判前景受到 重大影响，对伊朗石油生产销售的制裁可能加剧。（2）地缘冲突加剧导致原 油运输风险加剧，霍尔木兹海峡遭到封锁威胁全球原油运输安全。历史上中东 地缘冲 ...

美伊冲突点评 美伊冲突对化工影响几何？ glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 1． 化工"双碳"：政策擎双碳，化工领方向- 2026/01/30 2． 2025Q4 化工行业基金持仓分析：化工持 仓触底反弹，龙头配置价值凸显- 2026/01/27 3． 商业航天：化工赋能星海征途- 2026/01/13 4． 大化工行业 2026 年度投资策略：开局就 是破局，迎化工新五年-2025/12/26 5． 化工行业周报（20250908-20250914）： 本周液氯、环氧氯丙烷、硫磺、丙烯酸丁 酯等产品涨幅居前-2025/09/16 分析师承诺 | 分析师 | 许隽逸 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590524060003 | | | 邮箱： | xujy@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张玮航 | | 执业证书： S0590524090003 | | | 邮箱： | whzhang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 陈律楼 | | 执业证书： S0590524080002 | | | 邮箱： ...

中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报[1] 国家统计局 2026年2月28日 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年，是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年。面对国内外形势深刻复杂变化，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导 下，各地区各部门坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，按照党中央和国务院决策部署，完 整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，统筹国内国际两个大局，统筹发展和安全，实施更加 积极有为的宏观政策，我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保 障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。 一、综合 初步核算，全年国内生产总值[2]1401879亿元，比上年增长5.0%。其中，第一产业增加值93347亿元，比上年增长3.9%；第二产业增加值499653亿元，增长 4.5%；第三产业增加值808879亿元，增长5.4%。第一产业增加值占国内生产总值比重为6.7%，第二产业增加值比重为35.6% ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.95%, closing at 26,630.54 points, with a total market turnover of 288.42 billion HKD [1] Southbound Trading Data - The net purchases in southbound trading included: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (盈富基金) with a net buy of 8.385 billion HKD - Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (恒生中国企业) with a net buy of 2.482 billion HKD - Southern Hang Seng Technology Index (南方恒生科技) with a net buy of 2.039 billion HKD [1][2] - The net sales in southbound trading included: - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (长飞光纤光缆) with a net sell of 0.505 billion HKD - Kuaishou Technology (快手－Ｗ) with a net sell of 0.382 billion HKD - Hua Hong Semiconductor (华虹半导体) with a net sell of 0.272 billion HKD [1][2] Individual Stock Performance - Key stocks with significant net buy amounts: - Tracker Fund of Hong Kong: 8.474 billion HKD, closing price at 26.90 HKD, with a change of +1.20% - Hang Seng China Enterprises: 8.282 billion HKD, closing price at 90.92 HKD, with a change of +0.87% - Southern Hang Seng Technology: 8.051 billion HKD, closing price at 5.03 HKD, with a change of +0.60% [2] - Key stocks with significant net sell amounts: - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable: 5.556 billion HKD, closing price at 148.80 HKD, with a change of +10.06% - Kuaishou Technology: 3.031 billion HKD, closing price at 62.85 HKD, with a change of -1.18% - Hua Hong Semiconductor: 1.475 billion HKD, closing price at 96.75 HKD, with a change of -1.12% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (ICBC, 159691) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and trading volume, indicating a stable performance since its inception in March 2023 [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - As of February 26, 2023, the Hong Kong Dividend ETF (ICBC, 159691) has a total share count of 6.134 billion and a total asset size of 8.549 billion [1] - The fund's share count has decreased by 6.06% and its asset size has increased by 1.35% since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2: Trading Activity - The cumulative trading amount for the past 20 trading days is 7.066 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 0.353 billion [1] - Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative trading amount over 34 trading days is 11.207 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 0.330 billion [1] Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are Zhao Xu and Jiao Wenlong, both of whom have managed the fund since February 5, 2026, achieving a return of 0.99% during their tenure [2] - The fund's top holdings include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (14.55%), China Shenhua Energy Company (9.65%), and China Pacific Insurance (8.90%), among others [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF (513630) has shown a slight increase in its closing price and has experienced a decrease in both share count and total assets since the beginning of the year [1]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Morgan S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF was established on November 23, 2023, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1]. - As of February 26, 2024, the fund's latest share count is 9.58 billion, and the total asset size is 16.508 billion [1]. - The fund's performance benchmark is the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend Index [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - Year-to-date, the fund has seen a 7.22% decrease in share count and a 0.82% decrease in total assets compared to December 31, 2023 [1]. - Over the last 20 trading days, the cumulative trading amount reached 7.782 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 389 million [1]. - In the year-to-date period, the cumulative trading amount is 14.394 billion, with an average daily trading amount of 423 million [1]. Group 3: Fund Management - The current fund managers are He Zhihao and Hu Di, both of whom have managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 71.48% during their tenure [2]. - The latest report indicates that the fund's top holdings include Jiangxi Copper Co., Far East Horizon, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, and others, with specific weightings in the portfolio [2]. Group 4: Top Holdings - Jiangxi Copper Co. holds 4.51% of the portfolio, valued at 751 million [3]. - Far East Horizon accounts for 3.37%, valued at 561 million [3]. - China Shenhua Energy represents 3.12%, valued at 519 million [3]. - CNOOC has a holding of 3.11%, valued at 518 million [3]. - Other significant holdings include Henderson Land Development, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and Hang Seng Bank, each with varying percentages and valuations [3].

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月27日，港股通央企红利ETF（159266）收盘跌0.19%，成交额2563.93万元。 港股通央企红利ETF（159266）成立于2025年7月23日，基金全称为永赢中证港股通央企红利交易型开 放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年0.50%，托管费率每年 0.10%。港股通央企红利ETF（159266）业绩比较基准为中证港股通央企红利指数收益率(按照估值汇率 折算)。 流动性方面，截止2月27日，港股通央企红利ETF（159266）近20个交易日累计成交金额3.21亿元，日 均成交金额1603.24万元。 港股通央企红利ETF（159266）现任基金经理为刘庭宇、蔡路平。刘庭宇自2025年7月23日管理（或拟 管理）该基金，任职期内收益3.04%；蔡路平自2025年11月5日管理（或拟管理）该基金，任职期内收 益0.20%。 最新定期报告显示，港股通央企红利ETF（159266）重仓股包括中远海控、中国神华、中国海洋石油、 中石化炼化工程、中国外运、中国船舶租赁、中信国际电讯、中国石油股份、中煤能源、建设银行，持 仓占比如下。 股票代码股票名称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive performance on February 27, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 249.52 points, or 0.95%, closing at 26,630.54 points. The total turnover for the day was HKD 288.42 billion [1]. Market Indices - The Hang Seng Index increased by 249.52 points, closing at 26,630.54 points, with a gain of 0.95% [1]. - The National Enterprises Index rose by 45.2 points, closing at 8,859.49 points, reflecting a gain of 0.51% [1]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index gained 28.51 points, closing at 5,137.84 points, with an increase of 0.56% [1]. Blue-Chip Stocks - Tencent Holdings rose by 1.17%, closing at HKD 518 [1]. - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing increased by 0.87%, closing at HKD 419 [1]. - China Mobile saw a rise of 0.89%, closing at HKD 79.3 [1]. - HSBC Holdings increased by 1.59%, closing at HKD 147.3 [1]. Local Hong Kong Stocks - Cheung Kong Holdings increased by 3.58%, closing at HKD 49.78 [1]. - Sun Hung Kai Properties rose by 7.12%, closing at HKD 146 [1]. - Henderson Land Development gained 2.9%, closing at HKD 35.44 [1]. Chinese Financial Stocks - Bank of China decreased by 0.22%, closing at HKD 4.64 [1]. - China Construction Bank fell by 0.12%, closing at HKD 7.99 [1]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose by 0.47%, closing at HKD 6.45 [1]. - Ping An Insurance increased by 0.22%, closing at HKD 68 [1]. - China Life Insurance rose by 0.64%, closing at HKD 31.58 [1]. Oil and Petrochemical Stocks - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation increased by 0.37%, closing at HKD 5.45 [1]. - China National Petroleum Corporation rose by 0.85%, closing at HKD 9.54 [1]. - CNOOC Limited saw an increase of 2.68%, closing at HKD 25.32 [1].

Core Insights - On February 27, 2026, the top three stocks by trading volume in the Southbound Stock Connect were Yingfu Fund (02800), Tencent Holdings (00700), and Alibaba-W (09988), with trading volumes of 6.861 billion, 2.764 billion, and 2.741 billion respectively [1] - In the Southbound Stock Connect of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tencent Holdings (00700), Alibaba-W (09988), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) were the top three stocks, with trading volumes of 2.883 billion, 2.415 billion, and 2.051 billion respectively [1] Southbound Stock Connect (Hong Kong) - The top active stocks by trading volume included: - Yingfu Fund (02800) with a trading amount of 6.861 billion and a net buying amount of +6.777 billion - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 2.764 billion and a net buying amount of +0.236 billion - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.741 billion and a net selling amount of -0.193 billion - Other notable stocks included Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with trading amounts of 2.335 billion and 1.817 billion respectively [2] Southbound Stock Connect (Shenzhen) - The top active stocks by trading volume included: - Tencent Holdings (00700) with a trading amount of 2.883 billion and a net buying amount of +0.996 billion - Alibaba-W (09988) with a trading amount of 2.415 billion and a net buying amount of +0.531 billion - Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with a trading amount of 2.051 billion and a net buying amount of +2.039 billion - Other notable stocks included Yingfu Fund (02800) and Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) with trading amounts of 1.613 billion and 1.220 billion respectively [2]

港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）现任基金经理为贺雨轩。贺雨轩自2025年8月20日管理（或拟管 理）该基金，任职期内收益2.96%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 2月27日，天弘中证港股通央企红利ETF（159281）收盘涨0.00%，成交额6122.32万元。 港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）成立于2025年8月20日，基金全称为天弘中证港股通央企红利交易 型开放式指数证券投资基金，基金简称为天弘中证港股通央企红利ETF。该基金管理费率每年0.50%， 托管费率每年0.10%。港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）业绩比较基准为中证港股通央企红利指数收 益率(经估值汇率调整)。 规模方面，截止2月26日，港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）最新份额为3.47亿份，最新规模为3.62亿 元。回顾2025年12月31日，港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）份额为3.54亿份，规模为3.50亿元。即 该基金今年以来份额减少1.98%，规模增加3.29%。 流动性方面，截止2月27日，港股通央企红利ETF天弘（159281）近20个交易日累计成交金额13.11亿 元，日均成交金额6556.88 ...