今日早参 2026 年 2 月 05 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 姚雪梅 农林牧渔行业首席研究员 邮箱：yaoxuemei@htsc.com 樊俊豪 金控研究部负责人暨可选消费首席研 究员 邮箱：fanjunhao@htsc.com 今日热点 固定收益：沿着五大叙事与情绪钟摆找机会 近期市场波动明显加大，背后既受到资金和情绪钟摆的推动，又受到几大宏 观叙事的变化影响，具体包括：1）商品超级周期的演绎节奏和斜率；2）商 品涨价推动全球宏观象限或从复苏逐渐转向过热；3）流动性环境面临的扰 动与结构性机会；4）AI 链的分化是否会迎来收敛；5）春节前后的国内市场 的变化。配置策略上，短期市场波动率预计将维持高位，但市场情绪如钟 摆，在趋势未变的情况下，恐惧往往带来机会，同时关注宏观叙事变化背后 蕴含的趋势性机会。 风险提示：1）美国关税政策对经济的滞后效应；2）海外通胀超预期；3） 如果出口限制蔓延到长单，对中国月度消 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 29.38 [9][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from strategic collaboration with leading customers and an integrated layout that reduces production costs, enhancing its competitiveness in the lithium battery materials business [3][4]. - The company plans to jointly increase capital in its subsidiary Jiangxi Shenghua with CATL, which will strengthen its production capacity for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials [4]. - The establishment of a joint venture to produce 500,000 tons of ferrous oxalate annually is a significant step in controlling raw material costs and achieving a vertical supply chain [5]. - The automotive parts business is transitioning towards smart electric control and mechatronics, with a focus on components for new energy vehicles and humanoid robots [6]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 29.38, up from a previous value of RMB 20.48 [9][7]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s net profit for 2025 is revised down by 31% to RMB 568 million, while profits for 2026 and 2027 are increased by 35% and 46% to RMB 1.897 billion and RMB 2.762 billion, respectively [7][15]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 0.33, RMB 1.11, and RMB 1.62, respectively [7][15]. - Revenue projections for 2026 are significantly increased to RMB 37.567 billion, reflecting a growth of 165.25% compared to the previous year [15][17]. Business Developments - The company is expanding its upstream raw material production capacity, which is expected to lower the cost of lithium iron phosphate per ton and enhance profit margins [5][6]. - The automotive parts segment is evolving to include smart thermal management systems and components for electric drive systems, indicating a strategic shift towards high-tech applications [6][16]. - The collaboration with leading firms in the humanoid robotics sector positions the company as a potential key supplier in this emerging market [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the significant inflow of funds into the photovoltaic ETF (159857), with nearly 200 million shares subscribed and a turnover rate of 21.17%, indicating active market trading [1] - The tracking index, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index (931151), saw a strong increase of 3.24%, with key component stocks such as JinkoSolar rising by 20.00%, Jinglong Technology by 12.97%, and TCL Zhonghuan by 9.99% [1] - As of February 4, the latest scale of the photovoltaic ETF reached 2.367 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a month, with a significant increase of 18.5 million shares over the past two weeks [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of funds into the photovoltaic ETF was 25.11 million yuan, with 7 out of the last 10 trading days showing net inflows totaling 142 million yuan [1] - The photovoltaic industry is expected to experience a fundamental recovery, with positive sentiment indicating a potential turning point for the sector [1] - Notable events include Elon Musk's team conducting research on Chinese photovoltaic companies, with JinkoSolar confirming contact with Musk's team [1] Group 3 - Fulin Precision and CATL have reached a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly increase capital in their subsidiary, Jiangxi Shenghua, with Fulin converting 500 million yuan of debt into equity and CATL investing 747 million yuan in cash [2] - According to a report by CICC, the booming commercial aerospace sector is driving the development of space photovoltaic technology, which is entering a new phase of technological upgrades and industrial delivery [2] - The report suggests that the deployment of low-orbit satellite constellations and the exploration of new application scenarios for space computing power should be closely monitored for potential industry-wide changes [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market shows a weakening trend, with the January ADP employment falling short of expectations, leading to a weakening of market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar. The short - term outlook for the US economy is mixed, with the employment market cooling while the service sector shows mild expansion and inflation pressure remaining [2][18]. - Gold prices fluctuate and close higher. The inflow of bottom - fishing funds lacks sustainability. Geopolitical risks persist, and the progress of the US - Iran negotiation falls short of expectations, increasing the long - short game in the gold market [3][14]. - The bond market has many potential negative factors, and the probability of weakening after a sideways movement is high. It is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [4][27]. - In the sugar market, the production and sales pressure of sugar mills in Guangxi is large, and the sales pressure is expected to further increase in the later stage of the crushing season. The domestic sugar market is facing seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [5][42]. - After a significant macro - level cooling, zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage [6]. - The US propane inventory has decreased significantly, and the de - stocking amplitude is expected to narrow next week [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key points: The cancellation of the US - Iran negotiation on Friday, the inflow of bottom - fishing funds in the gold market with limited sustainability, the repeated short - term geopolitical situation, and the increase in the long - short game. It is recommended to wait for the volatility to decline before making allocations [3][14][15]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Key points: The Fed decides to keep the capital requirements of large - scale banks unchanged in 2026. The January ADP employment in the US is lower than expected, the labor market weakens, the market risk appetite weakens, and the US dollar rebounds in the short term [16][18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The performance guidance of AMD is lower than expected, the Q4 revenue of Google's cloud business grows by 48%, but the large - scale capital expenditure in the future causes stock price fluctuations. During the earnings season, the US stock market is expected to maintain high - level oscillations [20][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Key points: The Shanghai Composite Index recovers and returns to 4100 points. Affected by news, coal stocks drive the pro - cyclical blue - chip sector to recover. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures and evenly allocate the three major stock indexes [24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Key points: The central bank conducts a 75 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan on the day. The bond market is likely to weaken after a sideways movement, and it is recommended to moderately focus on shorting T [26][27]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - Key points: Some Indonesian coal mines suspend offering due to production quota issues. The Indonesian side has a clear demand for production cut and price protection, and the bottom of coal prices is more solid, but the upward elasticity needs to be observed [28]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Key points: The iron ore project of Atlas Iron is approved by the government. The iron ore price maintains a weak oscillation. The downstream restocking is completed, and the supply is at a high level. The price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [30]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Key points: Brazil imposes anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Indian color - coated sheets. The steel price continues to oscillate. The steel price is less affected by the rise in coal prices, and it is recommended to treat the steel price with an oscillatory mindset [31][33][34]. 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - Key points: The coking coal price in the Linfen market is weakly stable. The supply may shrink during the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the market sentiment is affected by the Indonesian event, showing a strong oscillation [36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Key points: India's sugar production increases, and the sugar production in Guangxi decreases. The production and sales rate is at a low level, and the sugar mill's sales pressure is expected to increase. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [38][40][42]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Key points: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline in January. The US Treasury Department issues the 45Z proposed rule. It is recommended to focus on relevant data and conferences and consider going long on dips [43][45][46]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Key points: Sigma Lithium resumes mining operations, and Fulin Jinggong and CATL increase capital in Jiangxi Shenghua. The production and demand of lithium carbonate decline in February, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to go long on dips after the position and volatility stabilize [47][49][51]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Key points: The LME lead shows a discount. The lead market has a situation of weak supply and demand. The lead price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to medium - term long positions [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Key points: The LME zinc shows a discount, and Boliden's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 decreases by 15% quarter - on - quarter. Zinc prices may enter an oscillatory adjustment stage, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Key points: Chile releases a key mineral strategy, and the EU proposes a key mineral partnership with the US. The macro - sentiment supports copper prices, but the short - term spot structure is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [56][57][58]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Key points: The LME tin shows a discount. The supply of tin is expected to ease, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery and consumption improvement [59][60][61]. 2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Key points: The US propane inventory decreases significantly, but the supply is still abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to various disturbances [62]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - Key points: The capacity utilization rate of domestic asphalt refineries decreases. The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price fluctuates greatly [62][63][65]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises increases. The LLDPE price may oscillate strongly driven by cost, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [66]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - Key points: The inventory of Chinese methanol ports decreases. Due to the increasing geopolitical risks, the previous short - selling strategy is no longer valid, and it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [67]. 2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Key points: Ports in the Mediterranean and Chittagong go on strike. The Middle - East geopolitical situation supports the high - level oscillation of the market. The downward space of the spot price is limited [68][69][70].

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 江楚雅 富临精工深度绑定宁德时代加速扩产。 2月3日，富临精工（300432.SZ）连发公告，宣布与宁德时代共同对核心子公司江西升华实施增资扩 股，同时江西升华拟合资新建年产50万吨草酸亚铁前驱体项目。 富临精工此举，将通过股权深化绑定与上游原料自给双轮驱动，对冲行业价格倒挂压力。在头部企业密 集减产背景下，公司持续加码高端产能与供应链一体化，依托高端产品与长协订单维持盈利。 2025年前三季度，富临精工实现营收90.85亿元，同比增长54.43%；实现归母净利润3.25亿元，同比增 长4.63%。 深绑宁德时代锁定长期订单 富临精工3日发布公告，宣布与宁德时代共同对核心子公司江西升华实施增资扩股。公告显示，富临精 工以5亿元债权转增资、宁德时代以7.47亿元现金增资，共同向江西升华注资，分别认购4.07亿元、6.07 亿元新增注册资本。交易完成后，富临精工持股由79.57%降至64.37%，仍保持控股；宁德时代持股由 18.74%提升至33%，战略协同再升级。 此次资本与产业联动，是双方从业务长单走向股权深度绑定的关键落子。在2025年，双方已将合作期延 长至2029年，约定宁 ...

2月3日晚间，富临精工（300432）（SZ300432，股价18.49元，市值316.13亿元）发布关联交易公告， 公司与宁德时代（300750）拟深化产业链合作，共同对控股子公司江西升华新材料有限公司（以下简称 江西升华）实施增资扩股。增资扩股完成后，宁德时代对江西升华的持股比例将从约18.74%升至 33.00%，富临精工持股比例降至约64.37%，江西升华仍为富临精工控股子公司。此前，宁德时代曾计 划控股江西升华，但在今年1月宣告方案终止。 从意图控股到战略增资，宁德时代之所以对江西升华念念不忘，关键就在于高端磷酸铁锂。2月3日晚 间，富临精工副董事长李鹏程向《每日经济新闻》记者表示，富临精工向宁德时代定向增发股票募集资 金暂未到位，双方股东拟先通过优化资本结构和资产负债结构的方式，进一步提升江西升华的资本实力 和融资能力。 拟现金增资7.47亿元 2月3日晚间，富临精工公告称，与宁德时代拟进一步深化产业链合作及战略协同，共同对江西升华增资 扩股。富临精工拟将所持有的江西升华5亿元债权转作对其增资，认购江西升华新增注册资本4.065亿 元，宁德时代拟现金增资7.47亿元，认购江西升华新增注册资本6.0 ...

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Dynamics - The circulation share and market value of credit bond ETFs experienced a rapid surge in late December 2025, followed by a swift decline in early 2026. As of January 28, 2026, the total market value of benchmark credit bond ETFs was 108.3 billion, with a circulation share of 1.072 billion units [6][7] - The logic supporting the price correction of credit bond ETFs has not changed significantly, and the price correction process in Q1 2026 is expected to continue towards a zero value center [7][8] - The first batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs launched in July 2025 saw a "rush for bonds" phenomenon, but by December 2025, the relative advantage of Sci-Tech bonds over ordinary bonds had been erased by the market [8] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - In the recent period, 13 significant equity transactions were disclosed, with a total transaction amount exceeding 14.4 billion. Notable projects include the equity change of 12% in Fulian Precision, with Ningde Times as the subscriber [12][13] - Victory Electric plans to acquire 51.02% of Huajia New Materials for 112.24 million, aiming to strengthen supply chain control and high-end material technology capabilities through vertical integration [14] - The acquisition of new energy assets by Anhui Energy Group is expected to enhance the company's new energy capacity and resolve competition issues within the group [15][16] Group 3: Anhui Energy's Strategic Moves - Anhui Energy plans to invest 17.27 billion in cash and 100% equity of its subsidiary to acquire 51% of a new energy company, optimizing its power structure and addressing competition issues [15][16] - The new energy company has a total installed capacity of approximately 3.46 million kilowatts, with a net profit of 237 million in the first three quarters of 2025 [16] - The company has introduced an employee co-investment plan to align employee interests with corporate goals, which is expected to support long-term development [17]

2 月 3 日，富临精工的一则公告，揭示了动力电池龙头宁德时代对其上游核心资产的又一次重注。 公告显示，富临精工拟将所持有的江西升华 5 亿元债权转作对其增资，认购江西升华新增注册资本 4.07 亿元， 宁德时代拟现金增资 7.47 亿元，认购江西升华新增注册资本 6.07 亿元。 本次增资完成后，公司持有江西升华的股权比例将由 79.57% 减少至 64.37% ，宁德时代持有江西升华的股权比例将由 18.74% 增加至 33% 。至此，宁德时代稳坐第二大股东席位。 2024 年 8 月，富临精工以 3.89 亿元回购宁德时代所持江西升华 40% 股权，宁德时代暂时退出股东行列，但双方签署《业务合作协 议》，宁德时代支付一定预付款锁定江西升华 7.5 万吨产能，并承诺 2025-2027 年每年至少采购 14 万吨磷酸铁锂。 2025 年 3 月，宁德时代以 4 亿元重新入股江西升华，持股比例为 18.74% ，并签署全面《战略合作协议》。 6 月，双方将合作产能扩至 36 万吨 / 年，宁德时代一次性支付 5 亿建设预付款，并将"江西升华 100% 产能优先供应宁德时代"修订为后 者承诺"每年采购量不低于 ...

电池ETF汇添富(159796)标的指数热门成分股中，银轮股份涨停，富临精工涨超8%，阿特斯涨超6%，宁德时代涨近5%，阳光电源、亿纬锂能涨超1%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估自权章 | 浙铁幅 | HV.37 80 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 7.46% | 4.92% | 173.69亿 | | 2 | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 8.04% | 1.59% | 87.32 Z | | 3 | 002050 | 三花智控 | 8.42% | -1.28% | 56.95 Z | | 4 | 300450 | 先导智能 | 4.50% | -1.05% | 36.99亿 | | 5 | 300014 | 亿纬锂能 | 5.42% | 1.30% | 26.16亿 | | 6 | 002126 | 银轮股份 | 2.53% | 10.01% | 25.82亿 | | 7 | 300432 | 富临精工 | 1.28% | 8.51% | 23.90亿 | | 8 | 688472 | 阿特斯 | 1. ...

证券之星消息，2月4日电池板块较上一交易日上涨2.67%，亿华通领涨。当日上证指数报收于4102.2，上 涨0.85%。深证成指报收于14156.27，上涨0.21%。电池板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688339 | 亿华通 | 33.36 | 10.90% | 15.46万 | | 5.02亿 | | 300432 | 富临精工 | 18.49 | 8.51% | 133.17万 | | 23.90亿 | | 603031 | 安孚科技 | 59.90 | 7.64% | 23.50万 | | 13.69亿 | | 301487 | 盟固利 | 24.00 | 6.62% | 1 34.01万 | | 8.10亿 | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 365.03 | 4.92% | 48.53万 | | 173.69亿 | | 688733 | 壹石通 | 31.27 | 4.41% | 8.09万 | | 2.53亿 | | 68 ...