Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines is experiencing a significant surge due to emerging applications such as AI, energy transition, and grid upgrades, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and regional policy resonance [2][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Siemens Energy reported a record order of €8.75 billion for gas turbines in Q1 FY2026, with a backlog of €60 billion expected by the end of 2025 [1]. - GE Vernova's new orders for gas turbines reached $59.3 billion in 2025, a 34% increase year-over-year, with a backlog of 83 GW [3][4]. - Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plans to double its gas turbine production capacity within two years due to increased orders, with expectations of ¥6.7 trillion in total orders for 2025 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The gas turbine market is dominated by three major players—Siemens Energy, GE Vernova, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries—holding 80% of the market share [3]. - The current order backlog for these companies extends to 2028-2030, indicating a long delivery cycle and high demand [5]. - The surge in demand is primarily driven by AI data centers, which are significantly increasing global electricity needs [5][6]. Group 3: Regional Insights - The U.S. market is experiencing a dramatic increase in electricity demand due to AI data centers, with a reported shortfall of approximately 46 GW in gas turbine installations [6]. - Chinese gas turbine manufacturers are positioned to capitalize on this supply gap, with potential for significant export opportunities to the U.S. market [7]. - Domestic companies are beginning to penetrate international markets, with successful projects like the 50 MW combined cycle power project in Kazakhstan [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The positive outlook for the gas turbine industry is reflected in the stock market, with notable increases in the share prices of companies like Linde, Dongfang Electric, and others [8].

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 2025 年全球气电回顾与展望：增长远 超年初预期，2026 年有望再创辉煌 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 2025 回顾:美国领跑全球燃机需求增长，供电方案呈多元化趋势 根据 McCoy,4Q25 全球燃机新签订单 34GW，同/环比+134%/+42%，创十 年以来单季度新高（>10MW 口径，下同）。2025 全年全球燃机新签订单 合计 100GW，同比+75%，增速同比加快 42pct。全球燃机需求共振，2025 全年美国市场以 159%的同比增速领跑全球，订单占比 44%；非美市场亦实 现了 40%的订单同比增速，其中亚洲、中东等区域订单占比 22%、17%。 分企业看，三大主机厂商订单高增下有所分化。我们估算 GEV、西门子能 源、MHI 2025 年新增燃机订单 30、36、24GW，同比+48%、+197%、+51%， 2025 年市占率为 30%、36%、24%，同比-5、+15、-3pct，得益于均衡的 市场布局和完备的产品矩阵，西门子能源 2025 年实现了市占率大幅增长。 数据中心订单需求持续高增，推动订单销售均价提升。以 ...

Core Insights - The report from Caitong Securities highlights the increasing demand for gas turbines and gas internal combustion engines due to their higher efficiency and lower electricity costs, which are suitable for regional peak shaving and large cluster base load power supply [1][2] - There is a significant supply-demand gap in the gas turbine market, with major manufacturers like GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries having full order books extending to 2029, while global demand is projected to exceed 80 GW by 2025, with only about 50 GW of actual deliverable capacity [2][3] Group 1: Gas Turbines - Gas turbines are positioned as the primary source for base load power due to their minute-level response capabilities, while gas internal combustion engines are suitable for peak shaving with second-level response times [1] - The global market for gas turbines is expected to face a supply-demand imbalance, with a projected demand of nearly 100 GW for GTCC combined cycle gas turbines, while the supply remains constrained [2] Group 2: Gas Internal Combustion Engines - Companies like Caterpillar, Cummins, and Wärtsilä are expanding their production capacities, with Caterpillar aiming to double its combined capacity of gas and internal combustion engines from 25 GW in 2024 to 50 GW by 2030 [3] - The demand for gas internal combustion engines is driven by the growth in AIDC, mining heavy trucks, and off-grid electricity needs, with Caterpillar already securing multiple large data center orders [3] Group 3: Related Companies - Key players in the gas internal combustion engine sector include Weichai Power, China Power, and Weichai Heavy Machinery, while gas turbine solutions are provided by companies like Jerry Holdings and Dongfang Electric [4] - Core component manufacturers include Yingliu Technology, Haomai Technology, and Wanze Shares, with additional players in the heat recovery steam generator market [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [4][28]. Core Insights - The defense industry is expected to see continuous improvement in fundamentals and orders, driven by the steady advancement of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased military spending intentions from the US and Europe due to recent geopolitical events [4]. - The report highlights that the military industry is entering a new cycle of quality improvement and growth, with expectations for enhanced delivery and performance recovery in the first half of 2026 [4]. - Key sectors to focus on include commercial aerospace, the dual-engine industry (gas turbines and commercial engines), and controllable nuclear fusion [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military sector [4]. Market Performance - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 2.17%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.41% [5]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense sector included Yingliu Co. (up 24.87%), TeFa Information (up 22.73%), and China Power (up 18.32%) [12]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers included Shenjian Co. (down 15.22%) and Aerospace Engineering (down 10.61%) [13]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 97.40, indicating it is at a historically high level, with a valuation percentile of 75.55% since January 2014 [20]. - The report notes a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [20]. Key Investment Targets - Recommended stocks for domestic demand include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft (中航沈飞), Feilihua (菲利华), and Huazhong CNC (华秦科技) [4]. - For external growth opportunities, stocks such as Ruichuang Micro-Nano (睿创微纳) and Aerospace Electronics (航天电子) are highlighted [4].

我们继续推荐半导体设备，关注华峰测控、强一股份、长川科技、精智达、金海通、矽电股份、精测电子、微导 纳米、迈为股份、帝尔激光等。 #光伏。 【广发机械】专用设备跟踪 #半导体设备。 海力士表示，所有客户需求都无法满足，目前DRAM及NAND库存仅剩约4周，且2026年HBM产能已全面售罄，存 储景气度依旧，价格有望继续上涨；字节的Seedance2.0以及智谱的GLM5，显示国产大模型的进步，同时春节期间 的使用体验凸显了算力的紧缺。 我们继续推荐半导体设备，关注华峰测控、强一股份、长川科技、精智达、金海通、矽电 【广发机械】专用设备跟踪 #半导体设备。 海力士表示，所有客户需求都无法满足，目前DRAM及NAND库存仅剩约4周，且2026年HBM产能已全面售罄，存 储景气度依旧，价格有望继续上涨；字节的Seedance2.0以及智谱的GLM5，显示国产大模型的进步，同时春节期间 的使用体验凸显了算力的紧缺。 聚变方面，关注永鼎股份、王子新材、联创光电、精达股份、合锻智能、国力电子、旭光电子、国光电气等；传 统裂变堆方面，关注中国铀业、江苏神通、应流股份等。 具体细节欢迎交流。 太空光伏，T启动美国太阳能工厂的 ...

截至发稿，李煜累计任职时间2年362天，现任基金资产总规模19.89亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 4.76%， 任职期间最差基金回报-2.59%。 数据显示，国泰海通资管旗下1只基金重仓应流股份。国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）四季度持 有股数9800股，占基金净值比例为3.2%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约3.47万元。 国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）成立日期2023年9月19日，最新规模999.73万。今年以来收益 6.63%，同类排名2916/8994；近一年收益44.9%，同类排名1997/8199；成立以来收益32.41%。 国泰海通新材料混合发起A（018983）基金经理为李煜。 2月24日，应流股份涨5.45%，截至发稿，报68.45元/股，成交6.37亿元，换手率1.40%，总市值464.80亿 元。 资料显示，安徽应流机电股份有限公司位于安徽省合肥市经济技术开发区繁华大道566号，成立日期 2006年4月25日，上市日期2014年1月22日，公司主营业务涉及 专用设备高端零部件的研发、生产、销 售,产品应用于石油天然气、清洁高效发电、工程和矿山机械及其他高端装备 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the controlled nuclear fusion industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][8] Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is considered the "ultimate energy solution" due to its potential for near-infinite energy, high energy density, and minimal environmental impact [1][13] - The industry is experiencing a second acceleration phase driven by advancements in technology, increased capital expenditure, and supportive policies [3][38] - The market space for nuclear fusion is projected to reach 800-1000 billion yuan, with significant growth expected as the technology matures [6][8] Summary by Sections Introduction to Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Nuclear fusion involves the combination of two light atomic nuclei to form a heavier nucleus, releasing significant energy [1][15] - It is viewed as a solution to energy challenges, offering advantages over traditional energy sources [1][17] Advantages of Nuclear Fusion - Fusion fuel sources are abundant, and the energy density is significantly higher than that of fission [2][21] - It has inherent safety features, reducing the risk of catastrophic failures [2][21] Development of Nuclear Fusion in China - China is pursuing multiple technological pathways, primarily focusing on the Tokamak route for commercial power generation [3][38] - The country aims to demonstrate controlled nuclear fusion power generation by around 2030 and achieve commercial viability by 2050 [3][38] Industry Catalysts - The industry is currently in a phase of rapid development, with increased investment and participation from both state-owned and private enterprises [3][38] - The integration of AI and advancements in high-temperature superconductors are expected to further accelerate progress in the nuclear fusion sector [3][38] Market Potential - The nuclear fusion market is expected to generate substantial demand for engineering and equipment, with annual investments projected at around 20 billion yuan during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6][8] - Long-term projections suggest that fusion power plants could replace a significant portion of current electricity generation, contributing to carbon neutrality goals by 2060 [6][8] Industry Chain Overview - The nuclear fusion industry chain includes key components such as superconducting materials, vacuum systems, and various auxiliary systems [4][6] - Major companies involved in the sector include 应流股份, 许继电气, and 中国核电, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gas turbine industry is experiencing significant growth driven by the increasing power demand from AI applications, particularly in the North American market [2][6]. Group 1: Market Demand and Growth - The global demand for gas turbines is expected to rise, with a forecasted additional requirement of 31GW of power for AI data centers in the U.S. over the next five years [6]. - The electricity consumption of global data centers is projected to increase from 415TWh in 2024 to 945TWh by 2030, with the U.S. accounting for 45% of this demand [6]. - The North American market is focusing on traditional power generation equipment such as gas turbines, gas internal combustion engines, and diesel generators to meet the surging electricity needs [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Jerry Holdings and Yingliu Technology have seen their stock prices soar, with Jerry Holdings' stock increasing by 96% in 2025 and an additional 38.94% in the first two months of this year [5]. - Yingliu Technology's stock has risen over 50% this year, while Dongfang Electric's stock has increased by more than 30% [5]. - Jerry Holdings has secured four contracts in North America since November 2025, with a total contract value of approximately 34 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Advantages of Gas Turbines - Gas turbines are favored for their quick startup, easy deployment, stable power generation, energy efficiency, low maintenance, and cost-effectiveness, making them an optimal choice for AI data center power supply [7]. - The efficiency of gas turbine combined cycles can exceed 60%, and they have the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour [7]. Group 4: Future Projections - The global gas turbine sales are expected to increase, with the number of MW orders projected to rise from 58GW in 2024 to 71GW in 2025, and the number of units ordered expected to grow from 471 to 964 [8]. - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have their order deliveries scheduled until 2029, indicating strong future demand [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [6]. Core Views - The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to RMB 600 million for aviation engine capacity construction projects, reflecting strong market demand in the global aviation engine supply chain and the company's proactive expansion in both international and domestic markets [2][13]. - The company is expected to achieve continuous high-quality improvement in operational capabilities due to its focus on enhancing aviation engine production capacity [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 544 million in 2023 to RMB 1,411 million in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase significantly from RMB 90 million in 2023 to RMB 279 million in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 33.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.35 in 2023 to RMB 1.08 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 8.6% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2027 [4]. Target Price and Valuation - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 61.65, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 76.48 times for 2026 [13]. - The current market price is within a 52-week range of RMB 14.92 to RMB 44.28, with a total market capitalization of RMB 11,492 million [7][8]. Business Development and Strategy - The company is leveraging advanced manufacturing techniques and strong customer relationships to expand its business, particularly in the aviation engine sector, where it supplies major global manufacturers [13]. - The company is also entering the orthopedic implant market, which is expected to see increased demand due to aging populations and rising joint replacement rates [13].

Core Viewpoints - The mechanical industry is expected to embrace "technology + going global" as its dual main lines in 2026, focusing on high elasticity growth opportunities and performance certainty from overseas expansion [13][9][7] 2025 Review Market Performance - In 2025, the mechanical sector achieved a 41% increase, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 18%, ranking fifth among A-share sub-industries [6][16] - The sub-sectors that performed well included PCB equipment (+252%), 3C equipment (+129%), controllable nuclear fusion (+119%), data centers (+112%), and humanoid robots (+85%) [20][6] Demand Side - Domestic demand showed signs of bottoming out, with a marginal improvement towards the end of 2025, while external demand began to recover positively [31][35] - The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rebounded to 50.1, indicating a return to expansion territory, driven by large enterprises and high-tech manufacturing [32][35] Cost Side - The cost structure showed a continuous improvement trend, with PPI declining by 2.6% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting insufficient industrial demand [31][33] 2026 Outlook Macro Perspective - The macro narrative for the next five years is centered around "AI commercialization + global re-industrialization," with expectations of a cyclical recovery driven by proactive fiscal policies [6][7] Mid-level Perspective - Technology - The technology sector is expected to see explosive growth, with key areas including data centers, PCB equipment, semiconductor equipment, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [7][9] Mid-level Perspective - Going Global - The overseas production capacity is anticipated to enter a release phase in 2026, with significant revenue and profit growth expected for companies in the machinery and equipment sectors [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on high-certainty directions with strong industry trends and competitive advantages, prioritizing stock selection based on industry trends, competitive positioning, and valuation [7][8] - Long-term investments should consider companies with platform capabilities that offer sustainable value [7][8]