行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2026/01/16-2026/01/29） 金属价格高位震荡，有色板块分化加剧 2026 年 1 月 30 日 S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 行 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 申万有色金属行业指数走势 贵金属。黄金方面，近期在地缘局势扰动以及资金涌入等推动下，黄金价格 再度上行。短期需重点关注避险情绪退却、投机资金退出等风险。截至1月29 日，COMEX黄金价格收于5410.80美元/盎司，较1月初上涨1068.9美元，COMEX 白银价格收于115.79元/盎司，较1月初上涨44.81美元，上海黄金交易所黄金 Au（T+D）价格收于1243.40元/克，较1月初上涨269.01元。建议关注紫金矿 业（601899）。 工业金属。在全球降息周期开启的大背景下，有色金属价格屡创新高。随着 主流工业金属铜、锡等供需格局加快转好，以及工业金属补涨贵金属的机会 仍存，工业金属价格有望进一步上行。截至1月29日，LME铜价收于1370 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals and new materials industry is currently in a high cost-performance investment phase, with expectations for continued growth [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has seen a cumulative increase of 94.73% for the year, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 77.07 percentage points [1][13] - The industry is influenced by international dynamics and changes in supply patterns, with some metal prices reaching new highs [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The ongoing strategic competition between major powers like the US and China has made upstream metal resources a critical area of contention, leading to significant impacts on the stability of the metal supply chain [2] - Supply disruptions are expected to increase raw material costs, while tighter controls on strategic metals by various countries will further exacerbate price pressures [2] - The demand outlook for non-ferrous metals is clear, supported by long-term fundamentals [2] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights investment opportunities in precious metals, copper, and strategic metals, noting that gold has evolved into a strategic asset for managing systemic risks, with central banks likely to increase gold reserves [3] - The mining of copper is becoming increasingly challenging, with supply constraints supporting a long-term upward price trend [3] - The geopolitical competition is expected to lead to enhanced resource controls, creating structural investment opportunities in related sectors [3] Emerging Industries and Material Demand - Rapidly expanding sectors such as artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and high-end semiconductors are driving unprecedented demand for upstream materials, which are now classified as "key strategic materials" or "high-tech value-added new materials" [4] - The performance, purity, form, and functionality of materials are subject to increasingly stringent standards, indicating a fundamental shift in investment logic [4] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as copper, gold, and strategic metals, particularly in 2026, with an emphasis on leading companies that operate in high-growth areas with strong technological monopolies [5] - Specific companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Shenghe Resources, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongtung High-tech, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [5]

Core Insights - Zijin Mining Group successfully capitalized on the recent surge in gold prices and geopolitical tensions by issuing a $1.5 billion convertible bond, which was fully subscribed within 10 minutes, indicating strong global demand for quality mining assets [1][2] - The offering received nearly 8 times oversubscription, attracting over 200 investment institutions, showcasing investor confidence in the metals and mining sector [1][2] - The convertible bonds are zero-coupon bonds maturing in 2031, with an initial conversion price set at HKD 63.30, representing a 37% premium over the previous closing price [2] Fund Utilization and Global Expansion - The $1.5 billion raised will primarily fund the construction capital expenditures for the La Arena gold project in Peru, with remaining funds allocated for working capital and other general corporate purposes [3] - Additionally, Zijin's subsidiary, Zijin Gold, has agreed to acquire Canadian company Unite Gold for CAD 5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion), which holds multiple mineral projects in Africa [3] Financing Trends in the Mining Sector - Zijin Mining is not the only Chinese mining company active in the capital markets; several industry giants are launching financing plans amid a booming precious metals market [4] - Recently, Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum raised $1.2 billion through a convertible bond, while Jiangxi Copper plans to raise up to $3.6 billion through bond issuance [4] - Collectively, these transactions from Zijin, Luoyang Luanchuan Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper account for approximately 40% of the total bond financing for Chinese metals and mining companies in 2025, which stands at $15.6 billion [4]

Group 1 - The top three companies with the highest AH premium rates are Northeast Electric (00042) at 831.03%, Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at 339.32%, and Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033) at 323.71% [1][2] - The bottom three companies with the lowest AH premium rates are CATL (03750) at -14.62%, China Merchants Bank (03968) at -3.22%, and Hengrui Medicine (01276) at 1.77% [1][2] - Sinopec Oilfield Service (01033), Andeli Juice (02218), and Shandong Molong (00568) have the highest deviation values at 53.41%, 21.68%, and 19.01% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The companies with the lowest deviation values include Zhejiang Shibao (01057) at -58.91%, Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869) at -49.00%, and Fudan Zhangjiang (01349) at -24.81% [1][2][4] - The top ten AH stocks by premium rate include companies like Hongye Futures (03678) and Beijing Electromechanical (00187) with premium rates of 258.91% and 257.99% respectively [2] - The bottom ten AH stocks by premium rate include Weichai Power (02338) and Midea Group (00300) with premium rates of 6.84% and 8.51% respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Xinhua 500 Index (989001) experienced a decline of 62.15 points, or 1.16%, closing at 5306.68 points on January 30, 2025 [1]. Market Performance - The Xinhua 500 Index opened lower on January 30, initially dropping approximately 1.95% before rebounding slightly, ultimately closing significantly down [3]. - The index reached a high of 5350.53 points and a low of 5229.75 points during the trading session [4]. - The total trading volume for constituent stocks was reported at 10,624 billion yuan, showing a significant decrease compared to the previous trading day [4]. Stock Movements - Notable gainers included Lanke Technology, which rose by 12.13%, and several stocks such as Huanyu Electronics and Hengtong Optic-Electric reached around 10% limit up [4]. - Conversely, multiple stocks including Nanshan Aluminum and Tongling Nonferrous Metals experienced around 10% limit down [4]. Weekly Performance - The Xinhua 500 Index recorded a cumulative decline of 0.57% for the week from January 26 to January 30, 2025 [5].

| 2026 年 11 | | --- | | 1 | | I | | 30 F | | 2 | | --- | | 市场波动加剧，铜价重心上移 | | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 2 | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | 【市场展望】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 | 3 | | 一、 | 行情回顾 | 3 | | 二、 | 行情展望 | 3 | | 第二部分 | | 地缘政治风险增加，美元信用下降 5 | | 第三部分 | 供应端 | 6 | | 第四部分 | 消费面分析 | 13 | | 一、 | | 传统消费增速明显下滑 13 | | 二、 | | 汽车消费韧性凸显 17 | | 三、 | | 风光发电超预期增长 20 | | 四、 | 新兴消费崛起 | 22 | | 五、 | 消费总结 | 24 | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 | 25 | | 免责声明 | | 27 | 有色金属研发报告 1 月铜价剧烈波动，重心上移，前期铜价围绕 99000-105000 元/吨震 荡，cl 价差下行，一 ...

Group 1 - The recent adjustment in non-ferrous metals is primarily driven by the strengthening of the US dollar, influenced by market expectations regarding the new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh, who advocates for a "strong dollar, loose regulation, and favorable credit" [1] - Concerns surrounding the US-Iran crisis have eased, but the future trajectory remains uncertain and requires time and policy validation [1] - There has been a phase of inventory accumulation and changes in funding behavior, with some metals experiencing a noticeable rebound in inventory after price increases, while previously accumulated long positions were liquidated amid changing macroeconomic conditions [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) saw significant declines in major stocks, with Nanshan Aluminum down 10.05% and Tongling Nonferrous Metals down 10.01% [2] - The Industrial Non-Ferrous ETF Penghua (159162) reported an active trading session with a turnover of 16.29% and a transaction volume of 1.03 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index, which includes companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth, account for 56.18% of the index [2]

有色金属震荡调整，消息面上，前美联储理事凯文·沃什于周四在白宫会见了美国总统特朗普。市场预 测平台Polymarket最新显示，鹰派沃什被特朗普提名为美联储新主席的概率飙升至87%。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋锂业、云铝股份、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业，前十 大权重股合计占比51.65%。 有色ETF鹏华(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 截至2026年1月30日 14:02，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)成分股方面涨跌互现，湖南黄金领涨 9.99%，中钨高新上涨0.47%，铂科新材上涨0.18%；南山铝业领跌。有色ETF鹏华(159880)最新报价2.41 元，盘中净申购1750万份，冲刺连续7天净流入。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指 ...

有色金属ETF基金紧密跟踪中证细分有色金属产业主题指数，截至2025年12月31日，中证细分有色金属产业主题指数(000811)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿 业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋锂业、山东黄金、云铝股份、中金黄金、天齐锂业，前十大权重股合计占比52.98%。（以上所列股 票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 1月30日，金银铜价齐跌，黄金有色等资源股走低，截至 14:05，有色金属ETF基金(516650)下跌8.11%，其持仓股南山铝业、铜陵有色、云南铜业、白银有 色、兴业银锡等股批量跌停，盘中换手6.97%，成交16.05亿元，今日成交量明显放大，或为资金逢低抢筹。 统计显示，有色金属ETF基金近26天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"176.68亿规模方面，截至1月29日，有色金属ETF基金最新规模达244.95亿元，创成立 以来新高。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。有色金属ETF基金本月以来融资净买额达374.61万元，最新融资余额达8917.45万元。（数据来源：Wind） 截至1月29日，有色金属ETF基金近2年净值上涨200.09%，指数股票型基金排名15/2531，居于前0 ...

Group 1 - Microsoft reported FY2026 Q2 earnings, exceeding market expectations for revenue and net profit, but faced significant capital expenditure increase of 66% to $37.5 billion, slowing growth in Azure business, and high dependency on OpenAI [1] - Following the earnings report, Microsoft's stock price dropped 10%, marking the largest single-day decline since March 2020, contributing to increased market volatility and tightening short-term liquidity [1] - Precious metals like gold and silver reached historical highs before experiencing significant declines due to profit-taking and market liquidity issues, with gold dropping 8.8% and silver falling 13.75% [1] Group 2 - The industrial and non-ferrous metals sector maintains a long-term upward trend, with short-term emotional disturbances presenting potential investment opportunities [2] - Copper faces a clear long-term supply gap due to insufficient capital expenditure, increased demand from the AI revolution, and macroeconomic recovery expectations [2] - The aluminum sector benefits from ongoing supply-side constraints and expanding applications, while rare earth metals are expected to see valuation increases due to stricter export controls [2] Group 3 - The CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059) includes 30 major companies in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth industries, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [3] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 56.18% of the total, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Northern Rare Earth [3] - The MACD golden cross signal indicates positive momentum for these stocks [3]