Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 4%, halving from its year-to-date high of 85.79 HKD, currently trading at 39.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 745 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The pre-sale performance of Giant Bio's subsidiary, Kefu Mei, during this year's "Double Eleven" event has been lackluster [1] - According to Citigroup's report, the main products of Giant Bio showed a decline in performance during the pre-sale on October 15 in Li Jiaqi's live stream [1] - Citigroup noted that the company's promotional strategy has become more stringent, making its pricing less attractive compared to other brands [1] Group 2: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Citigroup believes that the market's reaction to the decline in pre-sale performance during the first day of Double Eleven is overblown [1] - Although sales trends from Li Jiaqi's live streaming are important indicators for Double Eleven performance, the contribution from this channel has significantly decreased due to the growth of other KOLs and the company's own live streaming efforts [1] - Despite the intense competition, there has been no negative feedback from customers regarding the company's products or brand [1] - Given the low base this year, Citigroup expects Giant Bio's sales to recover in the fiscal year 2026, and the company's valuation remains attractive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has dropped over 4%, halving from its year-to-date high of 85.79 HKD, currently trading at 39.22 HKD with a transaction volume of 745 million HKD [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Giant Bio's subsidiary, Kefu Mei, has shown lackluster performance in pre-sales during this year's "Double Eleven" event [1] - According to Citigroup's report, the main products of Giant Bio experienced a decline in performance during the pre-sale on October 15 in Li Jiaqi's live streaming session [1] - Citigroup noted that the company's promotional strategy has become more stringent, making its pricing less attractive compared to other brands [1] Group 2: Market Reaction and Future Outlook - Citigroup believes that the market's reaction to the decline in pre-sale performance during the Double Eleven event is overly pessimistic [1] - Although Li Jiaqi's live streaming sales trend is an important indicator for Double Eleven performance, the contribution from this channel has significantly decreased due to the growth of other KOLs and the company's own live streaming efforts [1] - Despite the intense competition, there has been no negative feedback from customers regarding the company's products or brand [1] - Given the low base this year, Citigroup expects Giant Bio's sales to recover in the fiscal year 2026, and the company's valuation remains attractive [1]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等 影响，9 月社零增速放缓 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年10月21日 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国家统计局发布社零数据，9 月份，社零总额为 4.20 万亿元，同比增长 3.0%。其中，除汽车 以外的消费品零售额为 3.73 万亿元，同比增长 3.2%；限额以上单位消费品零售额 1.78 万亿 元，同比增长 2.3%。 |分析师及联系人 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年10月21日 商贸零售 受国补边际效应减弱、中秋假期错位等影响， 9 月社零增速放缓 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2024/10 2025/2 2025/6 2025/10 商贸零售 沪深300 相关报告 1、《商贸零售：7 月社零同比+3.7%，环比有 所回落》2025.08.16 2、《商贸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Giant Bio (02367) has been transferred from the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect to the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a market value of HKD 887 million, accounting for 2.05% of the total [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Citigroup predicts that Giant Bio's performance in Q3 and the first two weeks of October is relatively weak due to fewer KOL live streams [1] - The expected revenue growth for Giant Bio in the second half of the year is 16% year-on-year, with Tmall projected to decline by 10%, Douyin to increase by 25%, JD.com to grow by 100%, and offline sales to rise by 10% [1] - Citigroup also anticipates that Giant Bio's revenue for the fiscal year 2026 will continue to grow at a high rate of 19% from a low base, as there are no negative feedbacks from customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock transfer of Giant Bio (02367) from Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) to Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) indicates a strategic shift, with a market capitalization of HKD 887 million, representing 2.05% of the total [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Citigroup predicts that Giant Bio's performance in Q3 and the first two weeks of October is relatively weak due to fewer KOL live streams [1] - The revenue growth forecast for the second half of the year is 16% year-on-year, with specific expectations of a 10% decline on Tmall, a 25% increase on Douyin, a 100% increase on JD.com, and a 10% growth offline [1] - Citigroup anticipates that Giant Bio's revenue will continue to grow at a high rate of 19% in the fiscal year 2026, supported by a low base and no negative feedback from customers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Natural Hall, a well-known domestic beauty brand, is facing challenges in profitability and research and development, despite its historical significance and market presence [2][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Natural Hall from 2022 to 2024 is projected to be 4.292 billion, 4.442 billion, and 4.601 billion yuan, with net profits of 139 million, 302 million, and 190 million yuan respectively [4]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2022 to 2024 is only 3.5%, significantly lower than the industry average of 6.6% [4]. Revenue Structure - Approximately 90% of Natural Hall's revenue is derived from its core brand, "Natural Hall," indicating a heavy reliance on a single brand [5][6]. - The other four brands under Natural Hall contribute only about 5% of total revenue, highlighting limited market influence [7]. Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Natural Hall maintains a high gross margin, but its net profit margin fluctuates between 3.2% and 7.8%, which is considerably lower than competitors [9]. - Marketing expenses from 2022 to 2024 exceeded 7.5 billion yuan, while R&D investment was only about 348 million yuan, indicating a marketing-to-R&D expenditure ratio of 21.55 times [10][11]. Channel Strategy - Online revenue share increased from 59.7% to 68.8% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, while offline revenue share decreased to around 30% [12]. - Despite the growth in online sales, Natural Hall continues to expand its offline retail presence, with over 62,700 retail terminals as of mid-2025 [13]. Corporate Governance - Natural Hall is a family-controlled business, with the Zheng family holding 87.82% of voting rights, ensuring significant control over strategic decisions [14]. - The company recently brought in strategic investors, including L'Oréal and CVC Capital, while maintaining family control over the board [15]. Market Position and Challenges - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to grow from 779.4 billion yuan in 2019 to 934.6 billion yuan in 2024, with domestic brands expected to capture over 50% market share by 2025 [16]. - Natural Hall's reliance on celebrity endorsements poses risks, as seen with recent controversies affecting brand reputation [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape in the functional skincare market, focusing on the rivalry between two prominent female entrepreneurs, Fan Daidi from Xi'an and Yang Xia from Shanxi, as they pivot their companies towards the C-end beauty segment, particularly in the context of the recent Double 11 shopping festival [1][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Double 11 shopping festival has seen a new brand "Tongpin" rapidly rise in popularity, achieving significant sales growth, with its GMV ranking second in Li Jiaqi's live broadcast [1][5]. - Despite the success of Tongpin, the stock price of Juzhi Biological has been declining, hitting a new low of 40.40 HKD per share, with a total market value of 43.3 billion HKD [2]. - Juzhi Biological's stock has faced continuous declines, while Jinbo Biological's stock also fell, indicating a broader trend of market challenges for both companies [2]. Group 2: Brand Development - Tongpin, established in March 2024, focuses on technology-driven skincare solutions and has launched a limited range of products, including five core items [4]. - The brand's rapid sales growth is attributed to its strategic partnerships with top influencers, particularly in live streaming channels [5]. - During the Double 11 event, Tongpin achieved over 20 million RMB in sales, ranking first among new brands on Tmall [5]. Group 3: Corporate Relationships - Tongpin is closely linked to Jinbo Biological, which provides technical support and has several patented ingredients used in Tongpin's products [7]. - Jinbo Biological's founder, Yang Xia, has actively promoted Tongpin, indicating a strategic shift from B-end medical devices to C-end skincare [1][7]. - Jinbo Biological has recently attracted investment from Zhong Shanshan, founder of Nongfu Spring, further solidifying its market position [12]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The competition between Juzhi Biological and Jinbo Biological reflects a broader trend of blurring lines between pharmaceutical and beauty companies in China's functional skincare market [13]. - The outcome of this rivalry will significantly influence the next industry cycle and determine the leading players in the market [13].

Summary of the Conference Call for 巨子生物 Company Overview - The conference call pertains to 巨子生物, a company involved in the beauty and skincare industry, specifically focusing on collagen products. Key Points and Arguments - **Crisis During 618 Sales Event**: 巨子生物 faced a public relations crisis during the 618 sales period due to criticism from influencer "大嘴博士" regarding their flagship product, 可复美胶原棒. The influencer claimed that the product contained insufficient levels of recombinant collagen protein, leading to significant returns and negative reviews, which adversely affected sales [3][4]. - **Impact of Influencer Marketing**: Despite the initial backlash, signs indicate that the negative impact is diminishing. Prominent influencers such as 李佳琦 and 贾乃亮 have resumed promoting 可复美胶原棒, suggesting a recovery in public sentiment towards the product [3][5]. - **Sales Performance**: From the 618 period through Q2 and Q3, 巨子生物's sales were consistently affected by the aforementioned public relations issue. However, recent developments indicate that the influence of the crisis is waning, as major platforms like 天猫 and 抖音 see a return of influencer promotions for the product [5]. Additional Important Information - **Product Composition Controversy**: The controversy centered around the product's composition, where it was noted that the recombinant collagen protein was present at only 0.01%, below the 0.1% threshold required for labeling in cosmetics. Additionally, the form of collagen in the product was identified as peptides, lacking the triple helix structure typically associated with collagen [4]. - **Market Sensitivity**: The behavior of top and mid-tier influencers is highly sensitive to market sentiment. Their decision to resume promotions indicates a belief that the product is no longer under severe negative scrutiny, which is a positive sign for 巨子生物's recovery [3][5].

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The Q3 economic slowdown aligns with expectations, with GDP growth at 4.8% year-on-year, matching consensus forecasts, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1% [3][4] - The second industry has weakened significantly, particularly in the construction sector, which is expected to show a notable decline in GDP [3][4] - Exports have rebounded, boosting industrial production, while the service sector remains resilient, with industrial added value increasing by 1.3% year-on-year in September [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Market Analysis - New housing transactions have weakened, with a significant year-on-year decline in sales volume observed in major cities, indicating a challenging market environment [11][13] - The average transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities fell by 3% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 32% and 28% compared to 2023 and 2024, respectively [13][34] - Second-hand housing prices have also shown a downward trend, with a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to previous months [33][37] Group 3: Fixed Income and Fiscal Policy - National public budget revenue increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [16][17] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments from debt limits, indicating a proactive fiscal policy approach [16][18] - Tax revenue has shown steady growth, with a notable increase in securities transaction stamp duty revenue, which rose by 342.4% year-on-year [17][19] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The electric vehicle and battery management sectors are experiencing growth, with companies like Huazhi Jie expanding into new application areas such as new energy vehicles and drones [22][24] - The coal industry is witnessing a price surge, with thermal coal prices nearing 750 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints [44][45] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Guobang Pharmaceutical, is showing steady growth in performance and profitability, indicating a robust market position [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive performance of the beauty care sector during the Double Eleven pre-sale event, with significant sales figures and increased visitor traffic in live-streaming sessions [3][23]. - The adjustment of the Hainan offshore duty-free shopping policy is expected to expand the range of duty-free products and enhance consumer spending [3][23]. - The overall market performance for the week showed mixed results, with retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experiencing declines, while jewelry and general retail sectors performed positively [14][16]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - For the week of October 13-17, 2025, the commerce retail, social services, and beauty care sectors saw declines of 0.45%, 1.72%, and 2.53% respectively, ranking 6th, 11th, and 17th among 31 primary industries [14][16]. - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 Index dropped by 4.99% and 2.22% respectively [14][16]. Key Industry Events and News - The Ministry of Finance and other authorities announced adjustments to the Hainan offshore duty-free shopping policy, effective November 1, 2025, which includes expanding the range of duty-free products and changing the age requirement for duty-free shopping [3][23]. - The Double Eleven pre-sale event on Tmall saw 14 beauty products surpassing 100 million yuan in sales within the first four hours, with significant growth in visitor numbers during live-streaming sessions [3][23]. - LVMH reported a recovery in the Chinese market during the third quarter, while Kering is in negotiations to sell its beauty division to L'Oreal [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzi Bio, Marubi, Runben, Proya, Chaohongji, and Furuida within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][29].