Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the liquor industry is expected to see a full risk release by 2025, with a dual improvement in supply and demand anticipated in 2026. Short-term sales are expected to improve, particularly during the Spring Festival, while medium-term recovery in sales, pricing, and financial reports is also expected [2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the EU's anti-subsidy measures, which are likely to accelerate domestic replacements in deep processing, particularly in the dairy sector. This is expected to create opportunities in the food sector as companies prepare for the Spring Festival [4][8]. - The beer sector is experiencing a slight decline in major markets like China and the US, but global beer consumption is projected to grow by 0.5% in 2024, indicating a potential for recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report discusses the proactive measures taken by leading liquor companies to optimize supply and enhance sales channels. Notable companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are focusing on product structure and market innovation [2]. - The report suggests that companies such as Luzhou Laojiao and Yanghe Brewery are well-positioned for short-term recovery due to supply improvements and strong brand positioning [2]. Beer and Beverage Sector - Global beer consumption is projected to reach approximately 19.41 billion liters in 2024, with a slight increase despite declines in major markets [3]. - The establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand by Xiangpiaopiao is noted as a strategic move to enhance overseas business development [3]. Food Sector - The report indicates that the EU's anti-subsidy measures on dairy products will likely benefit domestic producers, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [4][8]. - Companies like Yili and Anjoy Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the market expansion driven by these policy changes [8].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 2025年12月27日 2025年12月28日 优于大市 牧业跟踪点评 商务部对欧盟进口乳制品实施临时反补贴措施，有望提振国产 原奶替代需求 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  农林牧渔 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 鲁家瑞 | 021-61761016 | lujiarui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520110002 | | 证券分析师： | 李瑞楠 | 021-60893308 | liruinan@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523030001 | | 证券分析师： | 江海航 | | jianghaihang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524070003 | 事项： 商务部于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布初裁公告，自 2025 年 12 月 23 日起，采取临时反补贴税保证金的形式对 原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时反补贴措施。 国信农业观点：1)商务部公布欧盟进口乳制品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beverage manufacturing industry in China is experiencing a decline in export value, with significant year-on-year decreases reported for 2025 [1] Industry Summary - In November 2025, the total export value of the beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry reached 1.71 billion, marking a year-on-year decrease of 14.5% [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export value for the industry was 20.62 billion, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 1.4% [1] - The data indicates a concerning trend for the beverage sector, suggesting potential challenges ahead for companies involved in this industry [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the beverage sector include Chengde Lulu (000848), Sunshine Dairy (001318), Huangshi Group (002329), Beingmate (002570), Western Pastoral (300106), Pinwa Food (300892), Panda Dairy (300898), Sanyuan Foods (600429), Bright Dairy (600597), Miaokelan Duo (600882), Yili Group (600887), and Liziyuan (605337) [1] - These companies may face pressures due to the declining export values, which could impact their financial performance and market positioning [1]

上市企业：阳光乳业（001318），皇氏集团（002329），贝因美（002570），麦趣尔（002719），燕塘 乳业（002732），庄园牧场（002910），新乳业（002946），西部牧业（300106），品渥食品 （300892），熊猫乳品（300898），海融科技（300915），天润乳业（600419），三元股份 （600429），光明乳业（600597），妙可蓝多（600882），伊利股份（600887），一鸣食品 （605179），佳禾食品（605300），骑士乳业（832786） 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乳制品行业市场运营态势及投资前景趋势报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国乳品进口数量为22万吨，同比下降3.1%，进口金额为10.85亿 美元，同比增长9.7%。 ...

天气寒 冷，主办方为游客免费发鱼汤。中青报·中青网记者 杨雷/摄 中国青年报客户端黑龙江大庆12月27日电（中青报·中青网记者 杨雷）今日，2025黑龙江"冷水鱼·冬捕 季"大庆连环湖活动启幕。 来源：中国青年报客户端 活动现场组织了"祭湖·醒网"、捕鱼起网、头鱼拍卖、电商直播等活动，并融入蒙古族特色冰雪渔猎那 达慕、马队展示、冰雪乐园、美食品鉴、百福鱼廊等内容。内蒙古伊利实业集团股份有限公司以66万元 拍得头鱼。 这是百福 鱼廊，祈愿一切顺遂。中青报·中青网记者 杨雷/摄 活动还组织了"十四五"龙江冷水渔业发展成就展和非遗展，全面展示黑龙江冷水渔业在渔业经济、项目 规模、科技成果、生态养殖、特色品种、精深加工、渔旅融合、对俄贸易、资源养护等方面的十大发展 成就。 据悉，2025黑龙江"冷水鱼·冬捕季"系列活动将持续到2026年2月7日。期间，将在牡丹江市、密山市等 17个市县举办各具特色的冬捕、冬钓活动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) from a concept driven by capital to a more pragmatic approach focused on measurable outcomes and long-term value, amidst increasing scrutiny and regulatory developments [2][5][20]. Group 1: ESG Evolution - ESG has transitioned from being perceived as a moral obligation to a critical factor in assessing financial risks and corporate resilience, especially in the context of climate change and geopolitical supply chain risks [5][9]. - The implementation of ESG has evolved from a marketing tool to a core management strategy, influencing supply chain access, financing costs, and executive compensation [5][8]. Group 2: Key Drivers of ESG Development - External drivers include regulatory pressures and enhanced information disclosure requirements, with ESG report disclosures from domestic listed companies rising to 47.5% this year [6]. - Internal drivers stem from corporate growth demands, where companies find innovation opportunities through ESG initiatives, enhancing governance and competitive differentiation [6][8]. Group 3: Changing Nature of ESG - The focus of ESG is shifting from narrative-driven to data-driven approaches, with regulations transitioning from soft laws to hard laws, emphasizing mandatory audits and legal accountability [8][21]. - Investment strategies are moving from broad ESG asset allocations to targeted "transition finance," utilizing AI tools to focus on low-carbon transitions in high-carbon industries [8][11]. Group 4: Challenges in ESG Implementation - Companies face challenges in transparency and sustainability of ESG disclosures, with many relying on outdated data management practices that hinder compliance with tightening regulations [13][14]. - The disconnect between ESG initiatives and business strategies often leads to difficulties in integrating ESG into operational management and financial performance [14][16]. Group 5: Future of ESG - ESG is expected to become a fundamental aspect of corporate governance, with CFOs playing a central role in ESG data management as carbon liabilities become as significant as financial liabilities [21][23]. - The next five years will see a significant shift in ESG practices, particularly in industries facing stringent compliance pressures, such as the electric vehicle and textile sectors [23][24]. Group 6: Multi-Dimensional ESG Focus - The environmental dimension of ESG is expanding to include broader natural capital considerations, while social responsibilities are increasingly enforced throughout supply chains [24][25]. - Governance aspects are focusing on board competency and ethical technology use, with a shift from mere compliance to strategic leadership in ESG [25][26]. Group 7: Integration of Technology in ESG - The integration of AI and blockchain is expected to revolutionize ESG management, enabling real-time data capture and predictive risk management, moving away from manual reporting [26][27]. - Effective ESG practices will be characterized by their deep integration into business models, reflecting in financial performance and long-term valuation [27][29].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce of China has announced a preliminary ruling on anti-subsidy measures against imported dairy products from the EU, indicating that these products have received subsidies that harm the domestic dairy industry, with temporary anti-subsidy measures set to take effect from December 23, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Background and Rationale - The anti-subsidy investigation was initiated in August 2024 at the request of the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association [2]. - The preliminary ruling report, spanning 108 pages, details the existence of subsidies, the amount of subsidies, and the causal relationship between these subsidies and the damage to the domestic industry [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The EU's subsidized dairy products, particularly cheese and cream, accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy imports from 2020 to the first three months of 2024, making the EU a major source of these imports [4]. - The domestic dairy industry is currently facing challenges, including overproduction of raw milk and a lack of self-sufficiency in high-value processed products like cheese and butter [4]. Group 3: Industry Response and Future Outlook - There is a growing call for increased protection within the industry as raw milk prices decline, leading to widespread losses across the sector [5]. - The anti-subsidy measures are seen as a way to restore fair competition, allowing both domestic farmers and enterprises to compete under more equitable conditions [5]. - Industry experts suggest that domestic processing companies should leverage the current policy window to enhance product lines and processing capabilities, which will help them better compete against imports in the future [6]. - Companies like Feihe and Mengniu are already investing in high-value and deep-processing product projects, indicating a proactive approach to enhancing competitiveness [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry is entering a critical period for transformation and development, supported by government measures to counteract foreign subsidies that have negatively impacted domestic producers [1][5]. Group 1: Background and Context - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-subsidy investigation into dairy products imported from the EU, responding to requests from the China Dairy Industry Association and the China Dairy Products Industry Association [2]. - The preliminary ruling found that EU dairy products received subsidies that caused substantial harm to the domestic industry, leading to the decision to implement temporary anti-subsidy measures starting December 23, 2025 [1][2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The EU accounted for 23.6% to 34.6% of China's total dairy product imports from 2020 to early 2024, indicating its significant role in the Chinese dairy market [4]. - The domestic dairy industry is currently facing challenges such as overproduction of raw milk and underdevelopment in high-value dairy products like cheese and butter, necessitating continued imports [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The industry is experiencing widespread losses due to falling raw milk prices, high costs, and external pressures from imported dairy products, which have been exacerbated by EU subsidies [5]. - The China Dairy Products Industry Association highlighted that EU dairy products have entered the Chinese market at unreasonably low prices, harming domestic producers and reducing their capacity utilization [5]. Group 4: Future Opportunities - The anti-subsidy measures are seen as a way to create a fairer competitive environment, allowing domestic producers to strengthen their market position [5][6]. - Companies are encouraged to leverage the current policy window to enhance product lines and processing capabilities, which will help them better compete against imports in the future [6][7]. - The low prices of raw milk currently present an opportunity for processing companies to upgrade and innovate, particularly in high-value and deep-processing dairy products [7].

Core Insights - Bosideng Group has been recognized as a member of the "25 Sustainable Development Chain Leader Alliance" for its practices in building a transparent, symbiotic, and responsible supply chain ecosystem, alongside companies like Tencent and Yili [1] ESG Strategy - Bosideng has integrated ESG principles into its core strategy, establishing a long-term commitment to sustainability with a "1+3+X" ESG strategic framework, aiming for net-zero emissions in operational processes by 2038 [3] - The company focuses on three key areas: product innovation, environmental sustainability, and human-centric approaches, embedding sustainable practices throughout its research, production, logistics, and partnerships [3] Supply Chain Innovations - The company promotes a circular economy through closed-loop design, exemplified by the CIRCULAR 3.0 down jacket, achieving a "garment-to-garment" (G2G) closed-loop goal [4] - All down materials used are certified under the Responsible Down Standard (RDS), ensuring sustainability from the source, and the company collaborates with suppliers to develop eco-friendly protective fabrics with over 70% bio-based content [4] - Bosideng has adopted FSC-certified eco-friendly packaging and implemented smart logistics systems, reducing the carbon footprint of individual shipments by 4% [4] Social Responsibility and Governance - The company has established a sustainable development oversight mechanism directly accountable to the board, linking executive compensation to carbon reduction progress to ensure the effective implementation of ESG goals [5] - In the 2024/25 fiscal year, Bosideng invested 8.908 million yuan in employee training and granted equity incentives to core employees [5] - The company and its philanthropic foundation have donated a total of 1.55 billion yuan, benefiting 1.923 million people, contributing to rural revitalization and improving social welfare [5] - Bosideng has initiated the fifth phase of the "Carbon Neutral Forest" project in the Alashan League, planning to plant 23,000 trees over an area of 460 acres [5] Future Outlook - The recognition as a member of the "25 Sustainable Development Chain Leader Alliance" marks a significant achievement for Bosideng in advancing national "dual carbon" goals [5] - The company plans to deepen its collaboration with the United Nations Global Compact and work with global value chain partners to build resilient supply chains, contributing to sustainable fashion [5]

Core Insights - The "Cross-Year Consumption · Discount in Deer City" campaign was officially launched in Baotou City on December 26, aiming to stimulate the consumption market at the end of the year and beginning of the next [1][2] - The campaign features an innovative "1+10+N" comprehensive system that integrates resources from various sectors including industry, agriculture, technology, culture, tourism, sports, and elderly care, breaking down industry boundaries [1] Group 1: Campaign Highlights - The campaign's standout feature is "boundaryless integration," moving beyond traditional commercial consumption promotion to weave elements from multiple sectors into a consumption network [1] - In the industrial sector, Baotou's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology opened "transparent factories," allowing citizens to visit production lines of companies like Yili and Yanjing Snow Deer, creating a closed loop of industrial tourism and direct product purchase [1] - In agriculture, local agricultural and pastoral departments organized "field direct purchases" and "New Year goods fairs," promoting high-quality agricultural products from rural areas to urban markets [1] Group 2: Policy and Experience Integration - Baotou City allocated 21 million yuan in fiscal funds to distribute consumption vouchers and introduced an innovative "voucher reuse" mechanism, allowing consumers to enjoy secondary discounts with tickets from concerts or sports events at designated merchants [2] - Financial institutions launched multi-scenario payment discounts and consumer credit benefits, enhancing payment convenience, particularly at Donghe International Airport, which is developing a payment service demonstration area for overseas guests [2] - The campaign targets all age groups, featuring events like esports competitions and family-friendly activities, with special services for the elderly, including "warm short-term care" and free trial stays in collaboration with elderly care institutions [2] Group 3: Overall Objectives - The consumption season will span New Year's Day, the Spring Festival, and winter vacation, aiming to create a consumption promotion ecosystem through multi-industry collaboration, policy integration, and broad demographic coverage [2] - Baotou City is exploring a new path for consumption promotion that stimulates domestic demand potential through deep integration and enhances residents' happiness through precise services [2]