Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but new contract signings showed positive growth, indicating potential recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% [1][2]. - The company experienced a cash outflow of 48.9 billion in operating activities for Q1 2025, which was 9.3 billion more than the previous year, primarily due to seasonal factors [2]. Contract and Order Growth - New contract signings for Q1 2025 reached 553 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 493.5 billion in infrastructure construction, 15.5 billion in design, and 4.1 billion in dredging, with notable growth in overseas projects [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash collection ratio for Q1 2025 was 94.9%, down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the cash payment ratio was 125.5%, up 3.77 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion for 2025-2027 [3]. - The target price for A shares is set at 12.11 yuan, while the target price for H shares is adjusted to 7.33 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ led by Deepseek breakthroughs and open-source initiatives, 2) Valuation recovery and gradual revival of consumer stocks, 3) The rise of undervalued dividends [2] - Overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as machinery, food and beverage, non-bank financials, real estate, environmental protection, and retail, while sectors like oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, banking, and public utilities are trending downward [2][20] - The report predicts strong performance in specific sub-industries over the next four weeks, emphasizing automotive services, general equipment, logistics, components, specialized equipment, paper, semiconductors, wind power equipment, consumer electronics, motors, textiles, optical electronics, photovoltaic equipment, jewelry, and infrastructure [2][20] Group 2 - In the agriculture sector, there is a strong short-term pig price due to a supply gap and inventory demand driven by state storage and increased channel inventory [3] - The report indicates a growing pressure on pig supply due to increasing inventory levels, with a notable rise in the number of small pigs stored [3] - The report recommends leading breeding companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope, while suggesting attention to flexible stocks like Shennong Group and Dekang Animal Husbandry [3] Group 3 - The aerospace industry is experiencing growth, with the domestic C919 aircraft entering commercial operation, leading to increased orders and production capacity [4][7] - The report anticipates significant benefits for the company as a key supplier in the aerospace engine industry, particularly with the development of advanced fighter jets and drones [4][7] - Revenue projections for the company are set at 44.84 billion, 54.48 billion, and 68.54 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 33.96 per share [7] Group 4 - The home appliance sector is seeing a return to growth, with new business and scenarios contributing to revenue despite short-term profitability pressure [8][29] - The company reported a revenue of 19.1 billion in 2024, with a slight increase in sales from industrial pumps and significant growth in the commercial pump segment [8][29] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, projecting net profits of 2.7 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.8 billion for 2025-2027 [29] Group 5 - The report on the food and beverage sector indicates a stable performance for Laobai Ganjiu, with revenue and net profit showing slight increases [10][14] - The company is benefiting from market dynamics in Hebei and Hunan, with a positive outlook for future sales growth [10][14] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2026, expecting net profits of 8.87 billion and 10.27 billion, reflecting a cautious but optimistic view of the market [14] Group 6 - The cosmetics and personal care sector is experiencing a temporary performance pressure, but the color cosmetics business is showing remarkable growth [14][15] - The company reported a revenue of 57.36 billion in 2024, with a significant increase in color cosmetics sales [14][15] - The report anticipates a revenue growth trajectory for 2025-2027, with adjusted profit expectations reflecting competitive pressures in the market [15]

Market Overview - The current A-share market is in a "strategic stalemate phase," with indices appearing calm but underlying volatility present [1] - Three main characteristics of the market include index box range fluctuations, moderate volume contraction, and rapid style rotation [3] Index and Fund Flows - The Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering between 3270 and 3320 points for 13 trading days, a critical area of dense trading from the last quarter of the previous year [3] - Notably, when the index exceeds 3300 points, there is a significant decrease in margin financing balance, indicating a reduction in leveraged funds [3] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 8.7 billion over three trading days, yet core assets like Ningde Times and Yangtze Power experienced increased holdings, reflecting a "go fake keep true" strategy from smart money [3] Sector Analysis - The AI computing power sector, while popular, shows three warning signs: major shareholder reduction announcements from Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian's P/E ratio exceeding 900 times, and net selling by institutional investors in some small-cap stocks [3] - The power sector, which has undergone sufficient adjustments, is expected to face a power supply gap of 40 million kilowatts this summer, with visibility of orders in virtual power plants and smart grids extending to the third quarter [3] - Huaneng International and other thermal power transformation targets exhibit a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2 times, indicating a strong safety margin [3] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to focus on the medical device sector, which is benefiting from easing procurement policies and dual validations from annual and quarterly reports [4] - Mid to long-term investments should consider two key trends: domestic semiconductor equipment production, highlighted by a major order from Zhongwei Company to Yangtze Storage, and deepening state-owned enterprise reforms, with central enterprises like China Communications Construction Company showing a price-to-book ratio in the historical 10th percentile and a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% [4] Risk Monitoring - Investors should be cautious of three warning signals: liquidity traps in micro-cap stocks, potential foreign capital reallocation if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 3.5%, and rising copper prices that may squeeze profits in the midstream manufacturing sector [4] Market Sentiment - The current market environment tests investors' "composure," requiring them to navigate risks while seizing opportunities [4] - The upcoming PMI data release is anticipated to be a key variable that could break the current stalemate [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [4][7][19] Core Views - CCCC has released a three-year cash dividend plan, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns. The annual cash dividend will account for no less than 20% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, ensuring a minimum level compared to the previous year [4] - The company has shown resilience in its overseas business, with a notable increase in new orders, particularly in emerging sectors such as energy and water conservancy, which have seen year-on-year growth of 185.4% and 29.5%, respectively [2] - Despite a slight decline in revenue and profit in Q1 2025, the company remains a leader in the construction industry, with stable operational metrics and a strong performance in major urban areas [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, CCCC reported revenue of 154.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11% year-on-year. The decrease in performance was slightly mitigated by a recovery in credit impairment and asset disposals [1] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved slightly to 4.34%, up 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [3] Order Growth - CCCC signed new contracts worth 553 billion in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.02%, achieving 27% of its annual target. The overseas business contributed significantly, with new orders amounting to 106.9 billion, a 17.1% increase year-on-year [2] Dividend Policy - The company has announced a cash dividend plan for 2025-2027, ensuring that the total annual cash dividend will not be less than 20% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, enhancing investor returns [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected net profit for CCCC from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 25 billion, 27.1 billion, and 29.5 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 5.8, 5.4, and 4.9 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors and high base effects. However, new contracts signed increased by 9.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for future growth [1][4] - The company plans to repurchase A shares worth 500 million to 1 billion and H shares worth 250 million to 500 million, reflecting confidence in stable operations [1] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of at least 5.0% and a new contract growth target of at least 7.1% for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the gross profit margin was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio slightly improved to 6.3% [2] - The net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% due to a reversal of impairment losses amounting to 521 million [2] Cash Flow and Debt - The company experienced a net cash outflow of 48.9 billion in Q1, primarily due to seasonal cash flow mismatches, with a cash collection ratio of 94.9% [3] - As of the end of Q1, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases year-on-year [3] New Contracts - The new contract value in Q1 reached 553 billion, up 9.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from infrastructure construction and overseas projects [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion respectively, with target prices set at 12.11 RMB for A shares and 7.33 HKD for H shares [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market-B" for the construction industry [9] Core Insights - The fiscal policy for 2025 is expected to be more proactive, with an emphasis on increasing deficits and expanding the issuance of special bonds, which will support steady growth in infrastructure investment [10][12] - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units indicates a positive trend in the nuclear power sector, with a total investment expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4][18] - The construction industry is anticipated to benefit from improved government investment and debt resolution measures, leading to a marginal improvement in the industry's fundamentals [3][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The political bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including the timely introduction of incremental reserve policies and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments [3][16] - Infrastructure investment is expected to accelerate, driven by increased domestic demand and government support for local government debt issuance [3][17] Market Performance - The construction sector saw a weekly increase of 0.76%, underperforming the Shenzhen Composite Index but outperforming the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index [20] - The chemical engineering sector performed notably well with a weekly increase of 5.34% [20] Company Announcements - The report highlights significant contract wins, including China Energy Construction winning a project worth approximately 5.118 billion yuan [33] - The report also notes the financial performance of various companies, with some showing substantial year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit [34][35] Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on undervalued construction state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which are expected to benefit from improved financial metrics and market conditions [10][11][12] - It also recommends attention to construction design firms and international engineering service providers that are expanding their overseas presence [11][12]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑装饰 建筑装饰行业跟踪周报 政策定调积极，期待进一步增量政策 2025 年 04 月 27 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] （2）财政部下达水利发展资金 471 亿元，聚焦保安全惠民生促发展加 力支持水利建设：资金聚焦三个方向，重点支持包括中小河流治理、 山洪沟治理和水利工程维修养护，农村供水和农业节水，以及地下水 超采区生态补水、幸福河湖建设和水土保持整县推进工作。财政发力 重点支持水利领域，有望支撑水利投资延续快速增长，利好相关工程 和材料企业。 ◼ 周观点：（1）政治局会议指出要强化底线思维，充分备足预案，要加 紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政 策，加强超常规逆周期调节，面对外部冲击影响，定调更加积极，利 好基建地产链条景气度企稳回升。一季度经济开门红，基建投资累计 同比增速 5.8%，财政发力支持下基建投资延续景气态势。增量的财政 政策支持和融资端的改善对投资端和实物量的效果将逐渐显现，同时 扩内需预期增强，基建投资和重点区域建设有望政策加码。我们建议 关注估值仍处历史低位、业绩稳健的基建龙 ...

证券研究报告 工业/基础材料 Q1 境外工程高景气，加力城市更新 华泰研究 2025 年 4 月 27 日│中国内地 行业周报（第十七周） 本周观点：25Q1 海外工程订单景气，加力城市更新稳定消费建材需求 上周中共中央政治局会议提出"加强超常规逆周期调节"、"加力实施城市更 新行动"、"加强对企业'走出去'的服务"等，我们认为有利于内需基建投 资链、城市更新类建材、一带一路等细分板块。25Q1 我国对外承包工程新 签合同额/完成营业额 586.7/341.8 亿美元, 同比+26.0%/+5.5%，海外工程 保持较高景气。加大高品质住房供给，有利于稳定一线消费建材品牌龙头需 求；老旧小区改造和城中村改造有望从小 b 和大 b 不同渠道提供消费建材 增量需求。我们短期继续推荐内需逆周期及供给端约束较强的品种，重点推 荐四川路桥、中材国际、中国交建、中国核建、中国建筑国际、海螺水泥、 上峰水泥、中材科技、兔宝宝、中国联塑。 上周细分行业回顾 截至 4.25，上周全国水泥价格周环比-0.7%；水泥出货率 47.4%，周环比/ 同比-1.3%/-2.5pct；上周国内浮法玻璃均价 71 元/重量箱，周环比/同比持 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector is expected to benefit from more proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies, with an emphasis on accelerating the issuance and utilization of local government special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds [2][13] - The construction index rose by 0.56% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.16 percentage points, with notable gains in small and mid-cap stocks related to transformation [1][25] - The first quarter of 2025 saw significant growth in new orders for major construction companies, indicating a recovery in traditional infrastructure sectors [20][24] Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - The April 25 Politburo meeting highlighted the need for more proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations, with a focus on increasing fiscal spending and issuing special bonds [2][13] - The meeting's optimistic stance on policies suggests potential improvements in physical construction volumes, particularly in infrastructure and housing sectors [2][19] Market Performance - The construction index's performance this week included significant gains in construction decoration, design services, and landscaping, with leading stocks such as Hanjia Design (+31%) and Sanwei Chemical (+22%) [1][25][30] - The construction sector's performance historically shows that it tends to underperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in the month following the Politburo meetings, but this year may differ due to positive policy signals [2][19] Investment Recommendations - Focus on infrastructure-related investment opportunities, particularly in high-growth regions such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, as well as cyclical sectors [1][30] - Recommendations include traditional construction blue-chip stocks and emerging business directions such as data centers and cleanroom technologies, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [31][32][33]

据悉，公司3月份发布《市值管理办法》，构建了责任清晰、衔接顺畅、高效协同的市值管理体系。明 确了"1+7+N"市值管理工作体系，综合运用7大市值管理工具，提升公司投资价值。 公司始终将做强主业、做优质量作为市值管理的根本遵循，锻造价值创造硬实力。坚持主业强化。巩固 大交通、大城市业务优势，港航疏浚国内市场份额第一，海外业务稳居亚洲国际承包商首位。坚持质效 双升。净利润增长率、净资产收益率指标连续两年达到股权激励解锁目标。坚持创新驱动。发力新兴产 业，新签合同额贡献达到37%，加速培育第二增长曲线。 根据市值管理相关文件精神，中国交建（601800）（601800.SH，01800.HK）高度重视，稳步推进市值 管理工作的落地实施。 同时，公司制定《估值提升计划及市值管理方案》，从价值创造、价值传递和价值实现3个主要环节16 项主要工作举措，细化市值管理落地路径。价值创造聚焦业务转型与资产盈利能力提升，实现内生增 长。价值传递通过信息披露、投资者关系管理等方式，确保股价反映内在价值。价值实现运用资本运作 工具，推动产融结合与股东价值最大化。 此外，在"聚焦主业、优化结构"的资本战略下，公司通过重组分拆实现资源高 ...