Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, supply and demand of lithium carbonate will both grow at a high - speed. The growth in energy storage will support the price of lithium carbonate to fluctuate in a relatively strong range. The demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the oversupply volume will slightly decrease compared to 2025. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3]. - The risk points are the accelerated production of upstream mines and the demand growth rate falling short of expectations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review (1) Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Trend - In 2025, the lithium carbonate market showed a trend of first declining and then rising. From January to May, due to the panic of the tariff war and the oversupply, the price dropped below 60,000 yuan. From June to July, influenced by the "anti - involution" policy and the price approaching the cost line, the price rose to 70,000 - 80,000 yuan. On August 8, concerns about supply contraction caused the price to hit the daily limit, and then it gradually fell back. From October to November, due to increased energy storage demand and decreased mica ore supply, the price returned to 100,000 yuan. In December, the price continued to rise and finally closed at around 120,000 yuan. The annual increase of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 55%, and the price fluctuation range was 99%. The trading volume and open interest reached record highs [7][8][9]. (2) Lithium Carbonate Spot and Basis - Spot prices: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose from 75,000 yuan at the beginning of 2025 to 112,000 yuan at the end, with a 49% increase. The price of lithium hydroxide rose from 70,000 yuan/ton to 102,000 yuan, with a 46% increase. The price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide widened from about 5,000 yuan at the beginning to 11,000 yuan at the end, indicating stronger downstream demand for lithium carbonate. - Basis: The main basis once expanded to - 10,000 yuan/ton or lower, setting a record since listing. The correlation between futures and spot prices was strong, but when futures prices rose rapidly, the increase in the SMM spot average price was relatively small [14][19]. (3) Price Trends in the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In 2025, prices in the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased. Cobalt - lithium oxide had a growth rate of over 170% due to the sharp rise in cobalt prices. Lithium hexafluorophosphate had a growth rate of over 160% due to limited supply in the phosphochemical industry and unexpected demand. The price of upstream lithium ore increased by 82%. The growth rates of intermediate raw materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide were over 55%. The growth rates of downstream battery cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials were about 35% [20]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Domestic Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - Salt lake lithium extraction: It is expected that the output in 2026 will reach 276,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons compared to 2025, with a nearly 55% increase. The largest output increments come from the Chaerhan Salt Lake of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., the Laguo Co Salt Lake of Zijin Mining, and the Mami Cuo Salt Lake of Zangge Mining. In the future, the output growth will mainly come from Tibetan salt lakes, with an increment of 41,000 tons in 2026, accounting for over 40% of the total increment [23]. - Mica ore lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 232,000 tons, an increase of 90,000 tons compared to 2025, a 63% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mine, the increased production at the Qiankeng Lithium Mine, and the commissioning of mica mines in Inner Mongolia and Hunan [27]. - Spodumene lithium extraction: The output in 2026 is expected to be 86,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons, a 62% year - on - year increase. The main increments come from the Dahongliutan Lithium Mine of Xinjiang Nonferrous Metals, the Jiada Lithium Mine of Dazhong Mining, and the Lijiagou Spodumene Mine [34]. - Overall, in 2025, although the output of mica - produced lithium carbonate decreased, the increase in salt lake and spodumene output led to a 20% increase in domestic lithium carbonate output. In 2026, due to the significant increase in capacity at the salt lake and mica ends, the domestic lithium carbonate output is expected to reach 594,000 tons, a 59% increase [37]. (2) Overseas Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis - South American salt lakes: The lithium carbonate output in 2026 is expected to be 517,000 tons, an increase of 64,000 tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. The increments mainly come from the Atacama Salt Lake of SQM, the Centenario - Ratones Salt Lake of Eramet, and the 3Q Salt Lake of Zijin Mining [39]. - Australian spodumene mines: The output of Australian mines is expected to increase slightly by 17,000 tons in 2026, reaching 492,000 tons. The increase mainly comes from the Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, and Holland mines, while the Wodgina and Marion mines will reduce production [45]. - African spodumene mines: The output in 2025 was estimated to be 211,000 tons, an 82% year - on - year increase compared to 2024. It is expected to reach 349,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 138,000 tons, a nearly 40% year - on - year increase. The main increments in 2026 come from the Goulamina Mine of Ganfeng Lithium, the Bikita Mine of Zhongke Resources, the Arcadia Mine of Huayou Cobalt, and the Manono Mine of Zijin Mining [49]. - American spodumene mines: The output in 2026 is expected to be 75,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. The Grota do Cirilo Mine in Brazil is expected to fully increase its capacity in Q1 2026, and the NAL Mine of North American Lithium is expected to maintain its output [56]. - Overall overseas supply: From 2025 to 2026, the overseas supply growth rates were 25% and 18% respectively. In 2026, the overseas new lithium carbonate output was 222,000 tons, with a total output of 1.434 million tons [61]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Supply and Cost Analysis - Global supply: In 2025, the global lithium carbonate output was estimated to be 1.67 million tons, a 24% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. The domestic supply will increase by 220,000 tons, and the overseas supply will increase by 220,000 tons [62]. - Global cost: The global lithium carbonate cash cost is estimated to be 55,000 yuan/ton at the 80% cash cost line. Considering a depreciation cost of 5,000 yuan/ton, the production cost is expected to be 60,000 yuan/ton [67][68]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis (1) Power Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, from January to November, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% respectively. It is expected that the sales volume in 2025 will be 16.6 million, a 29% year - on - year increase. In 2026, due to the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax incentives in China and the expiration of tax credits in the US, the sales growth rates in these two countries will decline. However, Europe and other regions are expected to maintain high demand. It is estimated that the global new - energy vehicle sales growth rate in 2026 will be 22%, and the global power battery installation growth rate may reach 28% [71][73]. (2) Energy Storage Battery Demand Analysis - In 2025, the new - energy power generation installed capacity in China increased significantly. After the end of the mandatory energy storage allocation policy, the domestic new - energy storage market first declined and then rose. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of new - energy storage in China reached 101.3 GW, a 110% year - on - year increase. Overseas energy storage demand also increased significantly. It is estimated that the global energy storage battery shipment in 2026 will maintain a high growth rate of about 60%, reaching 1040 GWh [81][84][87]. (3) Global Lithium Carbonate Demand Analysis - In 2025, the power battery demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 210,000 tons, a 31% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 1.08 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons, a 25% year - on - year increase. The energy storage demand drove the lithium carbonate demand to increase by 190,000 tons in 2025, an 83% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it will reach 680,000 tons, an increase of 250,000 tons, a 60% year - on - year increase. In 2025, the total global lithium carbonate demand was estimated to be 1.55 million tons, a 36% year - on - year increase. In 2026, it is expected to reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase [92]. 4. Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Analysis - In 2025, due to multiple factors such as the "anti - involution" policy, domestic mica ore production reduction, and the explosion of global energy storage demand, the oversupply contradiction of lithium carbonate was gradually alleviated, and the market was in a state of tight supply - demand balance. - In 2026, on the supply side, domestic supply will increase by nearly 59% year - on - year, and overseas supply will increase by 18%. The global lithium carbonate output will reach 2.13 million tons, a 28% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the energy storage battery demand will maintain a high growth rate, and the power battery demand growth rate will slightly decline. The global lithium carbonate demand will reach 2.02 million tons, a 32% year - on - year increase. Overall, the demand growth rate will exceed the supply growth rate, and the price is expected to remain volatile between 100,000 - 150,000 yuan [2][3][94].

而山西、贵州受制于年内白酒板块、能源板块的周期性调整，上市公司总市值有所回调，年内降幅分别 为-0.74%、-5.92%，成为2025年唯二市值下降的省份。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：公司观察 2025年，我国A股上市公司市值增长主要由东南沿海省份与超一线城市驱动，广东、江苏、浙江三大沿 海城市与北京、上海两大超一线城市的上市公司市值增量位列全国前五。 五地上市公司市值增量分别为42700亿元、38295亿元、25211亿元、24249亿元、23386亿元，分别贡献 今年全国市值总增量的17.40%、15.61%、10.27%、9.88%、9.53%，总计贡献比率高达62.70%。 此外，华中与华东地区的市值增长表现较好，山东、安徽、湖北、河南等多地的市值增量位于全国前 列。 值得注意的是，四川是西南地区唯一跻身市值增量TOP10的省份，其今年市值增长7165亿元，位列全国 第8名。 而西部地区其他省份、东北地区各省份的市值增长则相对靠后，但其中也存在着内部分化。其中，青海 省盐湖资源丰富，得益于2025年钾肥价格回暖预期，藏格矿业、盐湖股份、西 ...

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a decline of 0.17% on December 31, with Sierte leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3968.84, up 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13525.02, down 0.58% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the agricultural chemical sector included: - Nongxin Technology, closing at 24.94 with a rise of 10.01% and a trading volume of 92,700 shares, totaling 224 million yuan [1] - ST Huifeng, closing at 1.84 with a rise of 5.14% and a trading volume of 243,900 shares, totaling 43.65 million yuan [1] - Yanhai Co., closing at 28.16 with a rise of 1.51% and a trading volume of 979,800 shares, totaling 2.787 billion yuan [1] - Sierte was the biggest loser, closing at 6.42 with a drop of 5.03% and a trading volume of 287,300 shares, totaling 188 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 62.31 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 89.10 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Yanhai Co. had a net inflow of 136 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 162 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Nongxin Technology experienced a net inflow of 58.88 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 32.39 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Sierte had a net inflow of 4.76 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 16.56 million yuan from retail investors [3]

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 有色金属 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2025年12月31日 储能成为锂第二成长曲线加速修复供需平衡表，锂 价底部已至反弹可期 ——锂行业深度报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、供给端释放超预期、地缘政治冲突加剧等。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需角度：2024年：供给136.2万吨，需求122.1万吨，过剩14.1万吨；2025年预计供给165.8万吨，需求161.8万吨，过 剩3.9万吨；2026年储能中性：预计供给200.4万吨，需求197.2万吨，过剩约3.2万吨，呈紧平衡态势；储能乐观：预计供 给200.4万吨，需求208.6万吨，短缺8.2万吨。 Ø 淡季不淡，碳酸锂持续去库。10/11月需求表现强势，我国动力和其他电池合计产量分别为170.6GWh/176.3GWh，环比 分别增长12.9%/3.3%，同比分别增长50.5%/49.2%。虽然碳酸锂供应端在利润修复带动下产量回升，但需求端表现更为 强劲，因此碳酸锂延续去库态势。据SMM数 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电、封面：图虫创意 行情变化： 12月31日，ICC电池级碳酸锂（99.5%）现货结算指导价格为 120000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日 下跌 1000 元 ；电池级氢氧化锂（ 56.5%粗颗粒）结算指导价格为 96000 元 /吨 ，较上一工作日持平。 近期下游材料厂集中检修，补库意愿不强，商家也多以观望为主，市场整体成交平淡。 期货方面， 12月31日，碳酸锂期货高开低走，尾盘疯狂拉升，碳酸锂主力合约收于 121580 元 /吨 ，较上一交易日 上涨 1040 元 /吨 ，持仓量小幅下降。 ICC锂电结算指导价： | 品名 | 12月30日 | 12月31日 | 环比上涨 | 上月均价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂精矿 | 1590 | 1590 | 0 | 997. 5 | | (6.0%) | | | | | | 电池级碳酸锂 | 12. 1 | 12 | -0.1 | 8. 58 | | (99.5%/辉石) | | | | | | 氢氧化锂 (5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Salt Lake Co.") has successfully launched its 40,000-ton lithium salt integrated project, achieving production efficiency and cost advantages, while maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term development of the lithium carbonate industry driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Project Development and Performance - The 40,000-ton lithium salt integrated project was officially put into production on September 28, 2025, achieving "production immediately upon commissioning" and meeting annual operational targets [1]. - The project employs advanced technology, including "continuous ion exchange moving bed + membrane coupling," which enhances the industry's high-end, intelligent, and green transformation [1]. - The production cost of lithium carbonate has significantly decreased compared to budget estimates, breaking through the industry's long-standing "high consumption and low efficiency" bottleneck, with product purity consistently above 99.7% [1]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Competitive Position - The company holds a strong optimistic view on the long-term prospects of the lithium carbonate industry, driven by the continuous expansion of the electric vehicle market and the growth of the energy storage sector [2]. - Salt Lake Co. has established a leading position in production costs within the industry, supported by its long-term technological accumulation and process iteration advantages [2]. - The company plans to enhance its core competitiveness through product quality upgrades and meticulous cost control, implementing an "Amoeba" management approach to ensure comprehensive cost management across all business segments [2].

南方财经12月31日电，盐湖股份（000792.SZ）预计2026年度与关联方中国五矿、中国盐湖、中化化 肥、青海国投及工商银行等发生日常关联交易总额为146.91亿元。其中，采购/销售商品及劳务服务预 计86.91亿元，银行存款及承兑汇票托管等业务日均余额预计60亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry index in China is experiencing an upward trend, with significant contributions from leading stocks such as Guangdong Hongda, Salt Lake Shares, China Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation. The petrochemical ETF has seen a net inflow of 22.58 million yuan over the past five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1]. Industry Summary - The basic chemical industry is projected to have a strong performance in 2025, driven by robust demand for new materials in emerging applications such as AI, OLED, and robotics. This is expected to accelerate the demand for core materials like photoresists [1]. - The industry is anticipated to exhibit a pattern of "weak fluctuations in the first half, mid-term rebound, and structural activity in the later stages," with significant price increases in sub-sectors like lithium battery materials due to improved supply and demand dynamics [1]. - The macroeconomic recovery is contributing to a rebound in the chemical industry, with resilience observed in sectors such as agricultural chemicals and MDI. There are clear expectations for profit recovery in titanium dioxide and lithium battery materials [1]. ETF and Fund Performance - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China petrochemical industry index, with the basic chemical sector accounting for 60.1% and the oil and petrochemical sector for 32.7% of the index. The elimination of outdated production capacity and the enhancement of technological innovation in the petrochemical industry are expected to further increase the value of the industry chain [1].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced that individuals selling residential properties purchased for more than two years will be exempt from value-added tax starting January 1, 2026 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) released a plan to optimize the "Two New" policy for 2026, expanding support to various sectors including old community elevator installations and consumer goods replacement [2] - A special bond issuance of 625 billion yuan has been approved to support the "Two New" policy, aimed at boosting consumer demand during peak seasons [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued detailed guidelines for the 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy program, offering significant financial incentives for scrapping older vehicles [2] - China National Airlines announced a purchase agreement for 60 Airbus A320NEO aircraft, with a total catalog price of approximately 9.53 billion USD, to be delivered between 2028 and 2032 [4] - Zijin Mining expects a net profit increase of approximately 59%-62% for 2025, projecting a profit of around 51-52 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - Tianpu Co. announced a stock suspension for verification after a significant price increase of 718.39% from August 22 to December 30 [5] - Guotou Zhonglu plans to acquire 100% of China Electronic Engineering Design Institute for 6.026 billion yuan, with a premium of 147.4% over the asset's book value [6] - Shengxin Lithium Energy intends to acquire a 30% stake in Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, which is developing a lithium mine with a production capacity of 3 million tons per year [6] Group 4 - Haoshi Electromechanical reported small-scale applications of its products in leading commercial aerospace companies, indicating potential for increased orders in the growing market [7] - Jinpan Technology signed a contract for an overseas data center project worth approximately 696 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's long-term performance [8] - Salt Lake Co. plans to acquire a 51% stake in Wenkang Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, aiming to enhance its competitive position in the lithium and potassium resource market [9] Group 5 - Zhaofeng Co. announced a 1.53 billion yuan investment in the industrialization of intelligent robots and high-end precision components for automotive smart driving [10] - Baiwei Storage's subsidiary plans to acquire shares in Niu Xin Semiconductor, focusing on high-speed interconnect technology and related solutions [10]

Group 1 - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire 30% equity of Qicheng Mining for 2.08 billion yuan, aiming to hold 100% of Qicheng Mining post-transaction [1] - Qicheng Mining holds a 70.97% stake in Huirong Mining, which has confirmed Li2O resources of 989,600 tons with an average grade of 1.62% [1] - The acquisition is part of Shengxin Lithium Energy's strategy to enhance its lithium resource portfolio [1] Group 2 - Zhongju High-tech intends to repurchase shares worth 300 million to 600 million yuan, with a maximum price of 26 yuan per share [2] - Baili Tianheng plans to repurchase shares valued between 100 million to 200 million yuan, with a maximum price of 546 yuan per share [3] Group 3 - China Aluminum's subsidiary plans to acquire 51% of Yun Aluminum Logistics for approximately 264 million yuan [5] - Yilake Co. will be included in the consolidated financial statements of China Aluminum post-acquisition [5] Group 4 - Salt Lake Co. intends to acquire 51% of Wuku Salt Lake for 4.605 billion yuan, aiming to become the controlling shareholder [6] - The acquisition is part of Salt Lake Co.'s strategy to accelerate the development of a world-class salt lake industry base [6] Group 5 - Cobalt Co. plans to invest 1.741 billion yuan in the expansion of a lead-zinc mining project with an annual capacity of 1.65 million tons [7] - The investment aims to enhance the mining capacity of the Cobalt Co.'s subsidiary [7] Group 6 - Tianyuan Co. is investing 1.483 billion yuan in a new chlorination titanium dioxide project with an annual capacity of 100,000 tons [9] - The project is part of Tianyuan Co.'s expansion strategy in the titanium dioxide market [9] Group 7 - Jiangbo Long plans to purchase the remaining 19% equity of its subsidiary Zilia Eletrônicos for approximately 46.08 million USD [26] - The acquisition aims to strengthen Jiangbo Long's position in the storage business and expand its international investment layout [26] Group 8 - China National Airlines intends to purchase 60 Airbus A320NEO series aircraft at a total catalog price of approximately 9.53 billion USD [33] - The aircraft are scheduled for delivery between 2028 and 2032 [33]