丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 不动产的价值和价格 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 核心城市住房不存在系统性过剩，也不仅仅是商品，我们可以从资产视角去探讨定价问题，关 键矛盾在于价值和价格的关系。在低租售比背景下，租金涨幅对持有回报率有决定性作用，如 果中短期内没有明显的租金上涨，那么持有住房资产的回报率仍不及可比利率。房价的短期变 化跟合理价值关系不大，主要取决于边际，尤其是产业政策的扰动，社会预期是分层的，对合 理价值的判断也有差异；在房价经历较长时间和较大幅度的调整之后，自然需求和政策干预， 都有可能带来房价的缓和甚至一定修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 不动产的价值和价格 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标对市场 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a significant decline, with silver prices dropping by 35% and gold prices falling below key support levels, which will put pressure on the A-share precious metals sector [1] - Bitcoin prices also saw a substantial crash, further affecting market risk appetite, while over 500 listed companies have issued profit warnings, including major firms like China Overseas Land & Investment and Wingtech Technology, which are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion [1] - The commercial aerospace sector is gaining momentum, with SpaceX submitting an application to launch 1 million AI satellites to create the world's first space data center, and China is accelerating its own satellite and rocket launch initiatives, indicating a strong investment opportunity in this sector [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expressed support for the development of new productivity sectors such as AI and semiconductors, while storage chip prices are set to rise, benefiting leading companies in the optical module industry [2] - Shanghai has introduced a subsidy policy for replacing old home appliances with new energy appliances, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000, which will drive consumption and support the recovery of the new energy sector [2] - Upcoming industry events, such as the brain-computer interface developer conference and photovoltaic industry seminar, are expected to catalyze opportunities in related sectors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The majority of A-share listed real estate companies are expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Loss Predictions - Out of 52 listed real estate companies, 40 are expected to report losses for 2025, which means over 80% of these companies are projected to be in the red [1]. - Five companies are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Vanke leading at a projected loss of 820 billion yuan, followed by China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale [2][3]. - Vanke's cumulative losses for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be nearly 1,315 billion yuan, surpassing the total profits from 2019 to 2023 [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The losses are attributed to declining property prices and significant impairment provisions that companies have had to make over the past two years [9][10]. - Many companies had previously anticipated a market recovery and began to recognize inventory impairments, but the continued market downturn has forced them to increase these provisions [10]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Profits - Twelve companies are expected to report profits, with Jinke Real Estate projected to achieve a net profit of 300 billion to 350 billion yuan, primarily due to successful restructuring [12][13]. - Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are also expected to report profits, albeit with significant declines compared to 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The list of loss-making companies includes a mix of private, state-owned, and central enterprises, indicating that the nature of the company does not correlate with the likelihood of losses [7]. - State-owned platform companies, which previously supported land acquisitions, are now facing increased pressure due to the ongoing market decline [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming annual report season in March and April 2025 will provide more detailed insights into the operational conditions of these companies [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Primary Market - A total of 12 offshore bonds were issued this week (January 26 to 30), including 4 RMB bonds, 6 USD bonds, 1 HKD bond, and 1 EUR bond, with a total issuance scale of $31.7552 billion [1] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market was 3.5 billion RMB by Zhejiang Provincial Port Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd., with the highest coupon rate of 6.7% issued by Zoucheng Limin Construction Development Group Co., Ltd. [1] - In the offshore USD bond market, the largest single issuance was $600 million by Link REIT, with the highest coupon rate of 12.75% issued by Dalian Wanda Commercial Management Group Co., Ltd. [1] Secondary Market - Most yields on Chinese USD bonds rose this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index increasing by 0.12% to 252.36 [2] - The investment-grade USD bond index rose by 0.1% to 245.19, while the high-yield USD bond index increased by 0.29% to 244.5 [2] - The real estate USD bond index rose by 0.58% to 181.84, and the city investment USD bond index increased by 0.96% to 154.83, while the financial USD bond index fell by 0.16% to 292.79 [2] Benchmark Spread - As of January 30, the spread between 10-year benchmark government bonds in China and the U.S. widened to 243.1 basis points, an increase of 2.2 basis points from the previous week [3] Rating Changes - Chengdu Airport Industry Investment Development Co., Ltd. had its 'A-' international long-term issuer rating withdrawn by United International for commercial reasons on January 26 [4] - Yancoal Energy Group Co., Ltd. had its "Ba2" company rating withdrawn at the company's request by Moody's on January 28 [4] - Chengdu Dongfang Guangyi Investment Co., Ltd. had its 'BBB+' international long-term issuer rating withdrawn by United International for commercial reasons on January 29 [4] Domestic News - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone successfully completed the global issuance of its first offshore bond on January 27, with a scale of 200 million RMB and a coupon rate of 1.88%, marking a significant innovation in China's offshore financial market [5] - As of January 28, local governments have disclosed a refinancing special bond scale exceeding 300 billion RMB for replacing hidden debts, with a focus on 10-year and longer maturities [6] - The China Development Bank Hong Kong Branch issued its first public bond in Macau on January 27, amounting to 5.5 billion RMB, marking a milestone for policy bank bonds in the region [6] Overseas News - The Federal Reserve announced on January 28 that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations amid economic uncertainties [7] - Former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh was nominated by President Trump to become the next Fed Chair, pending Senate approval [8] Default and Extension Alerts - China Overseas Land & Investment Limited expects a net loss of 13 to 15.5 billion RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 8.662 billion RMB in the previous year [9] - Jinke Property Group Co., Ltd. anticipates a net profit of 30 to 35 billion RMB for 2025, but expects a loss of 29 to 35 billion RMB after excluding non-recurring gains and losses [10] - Shimao Group Holdings Limited reported an additional overdue debt of 3 million RMB this month, with total overdue debts amounting to 16.899 billion RMB [11] - Ruian Real Estate announced the repurchase and cancellation of $295 million in bonds due in June 2026 [12]

新京报贝壳财经讯1月30日晚间，华侨城A发布2025年年度业绩预告，预计公司归属于上市公司股东的 净利润为亏损130亿元至155亿元，基本每股收益为-1.64元至-1.95元，经营性净现金流持续增长。 报告称，公司业绩变动主要原因一是根据市场情况动态调整经营及销售策略，地产业务收入结转金额和 毛利率下降，二是2025年初即明确"强去化、促回款"为核心策略，通过资产转让等方式全力推动存量业 务销售去化与现金流改善，并于第四季度取得了较大进展，部分交易形成亏损。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Overseas Chinese Town A (华侨城A), is forecasting a significant net loss for the year 2025, with expected losses ranging from 13 billion to 15.5 billion yuan, indicating a challenging financial outlook for the upcoming year [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 is expected to be negative, with earnings per share estimated between -1.64 yuan and -1.95 yuan [1] - Despite the anticipated losses, the company reports a continuous increase in operating cash flow [1] Strategic Adjustments - The decline in revenue recognition and gross margin in the real estate business is attributed to the company's dynamic adjustment of operational and sales strategies based on market conditions [1] - The core strategy for the year emphasizes "strong de-stocking and promoting cash collection," focusing on asset transfers to enhance sales and cash flow, with significant progress noted in the fourth quarter despite some transactions resulting in losses [1] Development Focus - For 2025, the company aims for high-quality development, focusing on optimizing new projects and revitalizing existing assets [1] - Key achievements include acquiring the Chongqing Shapingba Xiaolongkan land parcel and leading sales in Wuhan with the Huashang City Hongfang project, as well as maintaining top sales in Shunde for three consecutive years with the Swan Castle Phase II project [1] - The company has successfully secured two light-asset cultural tourism service projects in Zhejiang Quzhou and Anhui Qimen, leveraging government policy support to enhance project viability [1] - The integration of various theme parks during the "National Trend Culture Festival" has created significant cross-industry collaboration, enhancing the effectiveness of cultural tourism operations [1]

Group 1 - The company expects a negative net profit for the fiscal year 2025, indicating a challenging financial outlook [2][5] - The decline in revenue recognition and gross margin in the real estate business is attributed to the company's dynamic adjustment of operational and sales strategies [5] - The company has focused on "strong de-stocking and promoting cash flow" as its core strategy, which has led to significant progress in the fourth quarter, although some transactions resulted in losses [5] Group 2 - The company has engaged in preliminary discussions with its auditing firm regarding the performance forecast, and there are no disagreements on the forecast data [4] - The company has made efforts to enhance high-quality development, acquiring new projects and achieving significant sales in various locations, including Wuhan and Foshan [7] - The company continues to adapt to market changes, successfully obtaining light-asset cultural tourism service projects and improving operational cash flow [7]

本报告期，公司预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为负，主要原因如下：(一)公司根据市场情况动态调 整经营及销售策略，地产业务收入结转金额和毛利率下降；(二)公司年初即明确"强去化、促回款"为核 心策略，通过资产转让等方式全力推动存量业务销售去化与现金流改善，并于第四季度取得了较大进 展，部分交易形成亏损。 格隆汇1月30日丨华侨城A(000069.SZ)发布2025年度业绩预告，报告期内，归属于上市公司股东的净利 润为亏损130亿元—155亿元，上年同期亏损86.63亿元；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为亏损132亿元— 157亿元，上年同期亏损88.30亿元。 ...