证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 电力设备 光伏产品取消出口退税，江苏超 800MW 海上风电项目获核准 光伏：两部门宣布取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，硅料电池组件价格上涨。近 日财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告：自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日 起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于 推动国外市场价格理性回归，降低我国面临的贸易摩擦的风险。据安泰科统计，本 周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 5.0-6.3 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.92 万元/吨， 周环比上涨 9.83%。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 5.0-6.4 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.58 万元/吨，环比涨幅为 10.5%。据 Infolink，本周 N 型电池片价格如下：183N、 210RN 与 210N 均价再度上调，本周上升至每瓦 0.39 元人民 ...

证券日报网讯1月7日，海力风电（301155）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将严格按照《深圳 证券交易所创业板股票上市规则》等法律法规的要求及时履行信息披露义务。 ...

证券日报网讯1月6日，海力风电（301155）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2025年12月31日， 公司股东人数为16256户。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The offshore wind power business of the company is expected to benefit from an increase in demand, with new orders and performance releases likely to accelerate. The hydrogen energy business aims to create an integrated model of "wind-solar-hydrogen-green ammonia," which will benefit from ongoing policy support [2][4]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts EPS growth of 66%/13%/10% for 2025-2027, with projected EPS of 0.16/0.19/0.20 yuan respectively. The target price is set at 10.50 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 66 times for 2025 [3][21]. - Total revenue is projected to increase from 7,174 million yuan in 2023 to 10,757 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.1% in 2024 and 15.3% in 2025 [6][15]. Business Segments - The company has participated in over 40 offshore wind power, offshore photovoltaic, and marine ranching construction projects as of June 2025. A significant contract for a 1 million kW offshore wind power project in Dandong, Liaoning, worth approximately 3.415 billion yuan, was signed in November 2025, accounting for 45.29% of 2024 revenue [3][25]. - The hydrogen energy technology is leading in the industry, with the company achieving mass production of advanced proton exchange membranes, filling a domestic gap. The company’s order backlog and new contracts have reached historical highs, indicating a potential for rapid growth in the latter part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][28]. Market Trends - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the marine economy, with policies supporting offshore wind power expected to open up market opportunities. The average annual installed capacity for offshore wind power is projected to reach 20 GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][21]. - The company is also expanding its smart port and high-end steel structure businesses, which are expected to benefit from equipment renewal and smart upgrades during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [5][27].

Core Insights - In 2025, approximately 75 actively managed equity funds achieved a net value increase of over 100%, but there was significant disparity, with several funds reporting negative returns exceeding 10% [2][8] - Among the underperformers, six funds from GF Fund were highlighted, all managed by Wang Mingxu, indicating a potential issue with his management strategy [2][8] Fund Performance Analysis - Wang Mingxu managed a total of eight funds, with six showing negative annual returns, including the flagship fund, GF Domestic Demand Growth, which reported a -16.31% return for the year [10] - The fund underwent a significant style shift in its holdings throughout 2025, moving from a focus on real estate, liquor, and banking stocks in Q1 to a more diversified approach in Q2, yet the results remained unsatisfactory [3][11] Managerial Challenges - Wang Mingxu's management faced criticism as his long-held fund, GF Domestic Demand Growth, became a significant underperformer despite his overall fund management experience and a reported best-term return of 115.25% [10] - The fund's quarterly reports indicated attempts to adjust the portfolio by selling overvalued stocks and increasing positions in high-end liquor and IT services, but these adjustments did not yield the desired improvement in performance [4][11] Performance of Other Managers - Zheng Chengran, another manager at GF Fund, also faced challenges, with his funds showing a wide performance range; one fund achieved over 70% returns while five others fell below 20% [5][12] - His investment strategy included a mix of sectors that did not align with his expertise, leading to underwhelming results, particularly in the healthcare and steel sectors [12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the mechanical industry in 2026, driven by structural transformation and a rebound in external demand [3][4] - The report introduces a "risk排雷" manual to proactively identify potential market misjudgments and challenges within various sectors [3][4] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is expected to experience a cyclical reversal, with growth in engineering machinery, industrial gases, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, and lithium battery equipment [6][8] - Key assumptions include continued government support for emerging technology industries and a stable macroeconomic recovery [11][16] Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a cyclical upturn, with increased overseas market share and a gradual domestic renewal cycle [17] - Key growth drivers include global market expansion, improved domestic demand due to favorable macro policies, and a stabilizing domestic infrastructure and real estate market [17] Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is on an upward trend, with demand supported by a variety of vessel types and improving profitability for shipyards [19] - The sector is expected to benefit from supply constraints driving up ship prices and a focus on high-end, large-scale, dual-fuel vessels [20] Export Chain - The export chain is optimistic about demand recovery, particularly in the U.S. market, with a focus on strategic exports and emerging markets [22] - Key assumptions include a favorable trade environment and ongoing industrial shifts towards resource-rich countries [22] Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is viewed positively, with expectations of volume and price increases leading to improved valuations [27] - The report highlights the importance of leading companies in the sector and recommends focusing on those with operational highlights in niche markets [30] Lithium Battery Equipment - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to emerge from a downturn, with solid-state battery technology creating significant market opportunities [51] - The report anticipates a substantial increase in market size, projecting a growth from 2.06 billion in 2025 to 33.62 billion by 2030 [51] Wind Power Equipment - The wind power industry is projected to maintain high growth, particularly in offshore wind projects, with significant investments expected [63] - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers and components that support the offshore wind market [64] Testing and Inspection - The testing and inspection sector is expected to see upward momentum, driven by increasing demand and a trend towards consolidation among leading firms [71] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on emerging fields and the long-term growth potential of comprehensive testing companies [71] Rail Transit Equipment - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from steady investment in fixed assets and high demand for passenger and freight transport [75] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the high-speed train sector and recommends key players in the industry [76] Oil Service Equipment - The oil service equipment sector is anticipated to thrive due to sustained demand driven by oil prices and energy security concerns [79] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong technical barriers and those benefiting from domestic and international market opportunities [80]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the wind power sector is expected to break the cyclical pattern and maintain growth in 2026, driven by both onshore and offshore wind energy expansion globally, with a focus on green energy applications [10][12] - The report identifies four main investment themes for 2026: 1) Resonance of policies between China and Europe for offshore wind, 2) Green energy catalyzing non-electric utilization, 3) Profitability elasticity of major manufacturers, and 4) Sustained demand in the components sector [10][16] Group 1: Industry Overview - In 2025, the wind power sector faced cyclical pressures, but by the third quarter, the relative advantages of wind power became more pronounced due to policy impacts on the electricity market and non-electric utilization, leading to a projected double-digit growth in installed capacity for 2026 [10][20] - The report forecasts that installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind in 2026 will reach approximately 110 GW and 10 GW respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10% and 25% [20][41] Group 2: Key Companies and Profitability Forecasts - The report highlights several key companies with investment ratings, including: - Goldwind Technology (002202.SZ) with a buy rating and projected EPS growth from 0.42 in 2024 to 1.16 in 2026 [7] - Dongfang Cable (603606.SH) also rated as buy, with EPS expected to rise from 1.47 in 2024 to 3.03 in 2026 [7] - New Strong Link (300850.SZ) rated as buy, with EPS projected to increase from 0.18 in 2024 to 2.92 in 2026 [7] - The profitability of major manufacturers is expected to improve significantly, with the average bidding price for main units increasing by 7.4% in 2025, and a high proportion of high-price orders expected to continue into 2026 [10][13] Group 3: Offshore Wind Development - The report notes that both Europe and China are emerging from a low point in offshore wind development, with a significant increase in project approvals and construction expected to drive growth in 2026 [10][56] - The offshore wind policy in China is evolving, with a focus on deep-sea technology and a significant number of projects expected to be initiated, which will enhance demand for high-voltage cables and other components [10][56] Group 4: Component Sector Dynamics - The demand for wind turbine components is projected to remain strong, with expectations of over 20,000 turbines needed annually during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating a recovery from previous supply chain constraints [10][44] - The report suggests that component manufacturers will benefit from increased capacity utilization and the introduction of new technologies, with specific companies recommended for investment, including New Strong Link and Delijia [10][13]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Haili Wind Power's stock has increased by 1.01%, reaching a price of 81.40 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 17.696 billion CNY [1] - Haili Wind Power, established on August 18, 2009, and listed on November 24, 2021, specializes in the research, production, and sales of wind power equipment components, agricultural machinery, port machinery, and environmental machinery [1] - The company's main revenue sources are as follows: 77.04% from foundations, 14.38% from wind power towers, 6.72% from conductors, and 1.85% from other sources [1] Group 2 - According to data, Haili Wind Power is the second-largest holding in the Huaxia Growth Enterprise Mid-cap 200 ETF, with 100 shares held, representing 0.02% of the fund's net value [2] - The Huaxia Growth Enterprise Mid-cap 200 ETF has a total scale of 26.9822 million CNY and has achieved a return of 29.03% this year, ranking 1893 out of 4189 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Hualong, has been in position for 3 years and 133 days, with the best fund return during this period being 123.21% [2]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a high growth period for the wind power industry, driven by structural inflation and dual coastal dynamics, leading to a profit reversal [1] - The investment strategy is rated as "Buy" for the wind power sector, reflecting confidence in future growth [2] Group 1: Global Demand and Market Dynamics - The "136 Document" promotes the full market entry of renewable energy, with a significant shift in capital expenditure from solar to wind power among major state-owned enterprises [15][16] - Domestic wind power installations are expected to grow, with onshore wind capacity projected to increase from 100 GW to 105 GW and offshore wind from 9 GW to 15 GW between 2025 and 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.1% for offshore wind [17][18] Group 2: Profitability and Market Trends - The report indicates that the domestic wind power sector is entering a profitability upturn due to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, with high-price orders securing profits for the next two years [19] - The transition from large-scale competition to a diversified value chain is highlighted, with a focus on cost reduction and risk mitigation as large-scale projects slow down [36] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with high overseas customer ratios and active offshore deployment, such as Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and SANY Heavy Energy [5] - For foundational components, companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Hailey Wind Power are recommended, while for subsea cables, firms with strong port capabilities like Dongfang Cable and Zhongtian Technology are highlighted [5] Group 4: Regional and International Developments - The report notes that European offshore wind capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 54.3% from 2025 to 2027, driven by strong policy support and market demand [36] - In Asia, countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are setting ambitious offshore wind targets, with Vietnam aiming for 6 GW by 2030 and the Philippines targeting 40 GW by 2050 [44]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for wind power demand in both domestic and overseas markets is optimistic for 2026, driven by rising prices for onshore wind turbines, accelerated industry exports, and the potential flexibility of offshore wind resources in China, which is expected to lead to a comprehensive improvement in industry chain profitability [4][5]. Group 1: Domestic Wind Power Demand - Domestic wind power installations are expected to reach 130-140 GW in 2026, continuing growth from a high base of 120-130 GW in 2025, primarily driven by onshore wind power [4][8]. - Offshore wind power is projected to add 10-12 GW in 2026, a significant increase from 7-9 GW in 2025, although the industry still needs to enhance its overall market conditions [4][10]. - The domestic wind power bidding volume for 2025 is expected to exceed 130-140 GW, indicating strong resilience despite a high base from the previous year [5][8]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Profitability - Three major trends are anticipated to drive a comprehensive improvement in profitability across the Chinese wind power industry in 2026: 1. Onshore wind turbine gross margins are expected to increase by 2-3 percentage points in 2026 compared to 2025, with further improvements anticipated in 2027 [4][19]. 2. Accelerated overseas exports of Chinese wind turbines, with significant growth in the European offshore wind market [4][22]. 3. The domestic offshore wind sector is poised for rapid growth, with the potential to achieve annual new installations of over 15 GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4][34]. Group 3: Export Growth and Market Expansion - Chinese wind turbine exports are accelerating, with new orders expected to exceed 20 GW in 2024, significantly higher than historical levels [4][22]. - The European market is identified as a key area for growth, with Chinese companies likely to achieve substantial breakthroughs in the coming years [4][26]. - The offshore wind sector in Europe is currently experiencing high construction activity, although challenges such as project delays and financing issues need to be addressed [4][27]. Group 4: Offshore Wind Potential - The domestic offshore wind sector has substantial resource reserves and is supported by favorable policies, indicating potential for rapid growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][36]. - By the end of 2025, approximately 60 GW of unbuilt offshore wind projects have been allocated to owners, providing a solid foundation for future development [4][36]. - The construction intensity of offshore wind projects is expected to gradually increase, with a significant number of projects in the pipeline [4][38].