GEO概念震荡回调，MINIMAX-WP跌超14%，智谱跌超10%。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | | MINIMAX-WP | -14.38% | 753.500c | | 智谱 | -10.75% | 560.500 c | | 迅策 | -3.72% | 86.650c | | 趣致集团 | -2.52% | 23.220 c | | 有赞 | -2.21% | 0.133c | | 阜博集团 | -1.54% | 5.120c | | 金蝶国际 | -1.40% | 9.830 c | | 亚信科技 | -0.93% | 7.470c | | 金山云 | -0.73% | 6.780 c | | 汇量科技 | -0.66% | 12.040 c | | 微盟集团 | -0.51% | 1.950c | | 迈富时 | -0.26% | 38.600 c | 编辑丨瑜见 2月25日，香港恒生指数收涨0.66%，恒生科技指数收跌0.19%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.66% to 26,765.72 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.19% to 5,260.5 points [1] - Major technology stocks had varied movements, with Alibaba up 0.2%, Tencent up 0.48%, and Meituan up 1.6%, while Xiaomi and NetEase saw declines of 0.39% and 0.61% respectively [1] Sector Highlights - The steel, non-ferrous metals, and rare earth sectors led the gains, with Chongqing Steel rising nearly 8% and China Aluminum up 5% [1] - The semiconductor sector weakened, with Lattice Semiconductor down over 7% [1] - The AI application sector experienced a pullback, with Zhiyun down 10.75% [1] Company-Specific Movements - Sinochem Fertilizer saw a rise of over 3% due to international phosphate prices exceeding $700 per ton [2] - Dongyue Group increased by nearly 7% supported by low refrigerant inventory and bullish price expectations [3] - Dazhu CNC rose over 5% after its laser drilling machine received certification from NVIDIA [4] - Huizhu Technology surged over 10%, reaching a historical high after raising HKD 1.635 billion [5] - Hongteng Precision increased over 6% as it transitions towards high-margin AI server interconnect and electric vehicle businesses [6] - Mingming Henan saw a rise of nearly 9% as its leading position in the industry was reaffirmed [8] Analyst Insights - Analysts from China Galaxy Securities highlighted three main themes for the Hong Kong market: rising geopolitical risks boosting precious metals, consumer policy driving low-valuation consumer stock recovery, and the release of valuation pressure in the tech sector [12] - Haitong International expressed optimism about the pharmaceutical sector, particularly Stone Pharmaceutical Group, expecting it to return to an upward cycle by 2026 [12]

再对比韩国科技巨头三星电子、SK海力士过去6个月表现：SK海力士区间上涨300%，三星电子区间上 涨180%，最新市值分别达8314亿美元、5135亿美元，远超中国两大科技巨头——腾讯控股（港股最新 市值6080亿美元，区间下跌12%）与阿里巴巴（港股最新市值3620亿美元，区间上涨25%）。 资金逆势布局，借道港股科技相关ETF积攒筹码：恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）、恒生互联网ETF （513330.SH）、港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）、港股通互联网ETF基金（520910.SH）均连续出 现大额净流入。上述ETF在内地证券交易所上市，覆盖一篮子港股AI科技巨头阿里巴巴、腾讯控股、美 团、小米集团等。港股通ETF更聚焦港股通相关标的，不包含百度集团、网易、万国数据在内的非港股 通标的。 2月25日，港股大型科技公司阿里巴巴、腾讯控股等股价回暖；与之形成鲜明对比的是，AI新星 MiniMax和智谱股价大幅回撤，两家国产大模型企业于今年1月登陆港交所，上市即大涨，市值曾跃上 3000亿元。而同样在港交所上市的科技巨头百度集团-SW、京东集团-SW、快手-W股价此前相对滞涨， 最新市值也 ...

公司4Q25实现净收入人民币275亿元，同比增长3.0%；调整后净利润71亿元。实质经营保持稳健，递延 收入同比大幅增长34.1%，环比增长5.3%至205亿元，创历史新高。这反映出确认周期较长的游戏收入 占比提升，大量现金流水尚未确认为当期收入，将为后续业绩释放带来很好的支撑。 《遗忘之海》计划今年三季度上线，期待新产品释放周期 智通财经APP获悉，浦银国际发布研报称，由于网易-S(09999,NTES.US))已达到转换至香港主要上市的 要求，公司正与港交所沟通推进相关事宜，未来有望吸引南向资金流入。考虑到公司新游预期上线情 况，调整目标价至236港元/151美元，对应FY26E/FY27E 16.8x/15.2xP/E，公司当前估值具备吸引力，维 持"买入"评级。 浦银国际主要观点如下： 递延收入维持强劲，实质经营稳健 公司4Q25游戏收入同比增长3.4%，端游表现亮眼，收入结构持续优化。主要游戏产品中，《梦幻西 游》端游Q4表现强劲，收入创季度和年度历史新高，其手游亦创年度收入新高，显示出极强的长线运 营韧性；《燕云十六声》全球用户数突破8000万；《漫威争锋》获得多个全球奖项。公司游戏产品全球 影响 ...

《遗忘之海》计划今年三季度上线，期待新产品释放周期 公司4Q25游戏收入同比增长3.4%，端游表现亮眼，收入结构持续优化。主要游戏产品中，《梦幻西 游》端游Q4表现强劲，收入创季度和年度历史新高，其手游亦创年度收入新高，显示出极强的长线运 营韧性；《燕云十六声》全球用户数突破8000万；《漫威争锋》获得多个全球奖项。公司游戏产品全球 影响力持续提升，该行预计公司未来海外收入占比将逐步提升，成为重要增量贡献。展望2026年，《遗 忘之海》计划Q3上线，近期测试反馈积极，该行预计有望在暑期档上线；《无限大》1月封测数据符合 预期，产品仍处于打磨阶段，希望实现全球全平台同步上线。随着新产品临近，公司有望在今年下半年 进入新一轮释放周期。 浦银国际发布研报称，由于网易-S(09999,NTES.US))已达到转换至香港主要上市的要求，公司正与港交 所沟通推进相关事宜，未来有望吸引南向资金流入。考虑到公司新游预期上线情况，调整目标价至236 港元/151美元，对应FY26E/FY27E16.8x/15.2xP/E，公司当前估值具备吸引力，维持"买入"评级。 浦银国际主要观点如下： 递延收入维持强劲，实质经营稳健 公司4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 236, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 195 [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which was below market expectations of 4.7%. Adjusted net profit decreased by 26.9% year-on-year, also falling short of market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue showed strong growth, increasing by 34.1% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter to reach RMB 20.5 billion, indicating a robust operational performance despite revenue pressures [1]. - The upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" is expected to launch in Q3 2026, with positive feedback from recent tests, suggesting a new product release cycle that could enhance future performance [2]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its gaming products, which is expected to improve efficiency and commercial value [3]. - The company is in discussions to transition to a primary listing in Hong Kong, which may attract more southbound capital [3]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 120.3 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 39.8 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [8]. - The adjusted P/E ratios are forecasted to be 16.8x for FY26E and 15.2x for FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [3][8]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 596.2 billion, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 1.287 billion over the past three months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 236, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 195 [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which was below market expectations of 4.7%. Adjusted net profit decreased by 26.9% year-on-year, also falling short of market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue showed strong growth, increasing by 34.1% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter to reach RMB 20.5 billion, indicating a robust operational performance despite revenue pressures [1]. - The upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" is expected to launch in Q3 2026, with positive feedback from recent tests, potentially marking the start of a new product release cycle [2]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its gaming products, enhancing production efficiency and commercial value [3]. - The company is in discussions to transition to a primary listing in Hong Kong, which may attract more southbound capital inflow [3]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 120.3 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 39.8 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% in revenue and 3.4% in net profit [8][9]. - The adjusted target P/E ratios are forecasted at 16.8x for FY26E and 15.2x for FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [3][8].

2月25日，尽管近期受美国人工智能（AI）震荡拖累，中国科技股有所下跌，但瑞银（UBS）分析师仍 坚持看涨，并将增加对中国科技股的配置，因为他们认为，强劲的盈利、有吸引力的估值和人工智能的 进步有望在2026年带来回报。 不过，瑞银反驳了这种观点，称强大的用户洞察力、运营能力和知识产权储备仍然是小型开发商难以复 制的关键优势。该行表示，顶级游戏公司更有可能从人工智能趋势中受益，而不是受到其损害。 但另一方面，近几个月来，一批规模较小的中国人工智能初创公司——如智谱（02513.HK）、MiniMax （00100.HK）和 Deepseek——发布了一系列尖端人工智能模型，提振了人们对中国人工智能长期前景 的乐观情绪。 瑞银分析师表示："我们预计到2026年，中国的人工智能将取得更加蓬勃的发展，包括更强大的基础模 型和创新应用。" 瑞银将其投资组合中腾讯控股（00700.HK）的权重提高了3个百分点，并分别将哔哩哔哩 （09626.HK）、看准科技有限公司、美团（03690.HK）、网易（09999.HK）和好未来教育集团 （TAL）的权重提高了1个百分点。同时，瑞银将其投资组合中唯品会（VIPS）的权重降低 ...

也是欢迎大家参加我们今天晚上的这场电话会议今天的话我们也是想利用这样一个机会跟大家来总结梳理一下整个春节假期期间包括AI像包括大模型的迭代以及整个游戏行业的一些情况观点进行那些梳理我们也 详细准备了一个PPT的这么一个内容整个春节期间行业应该是值得关注的点还是非常多的我们对于年内超级助手的爆发式增长的判断还是非常有信心的超级助手之争也是会成为今年观察产业的一个风向标和投资的锚顶 我们看到头部AI应用届时春节全面爆发跨越这种一级别的MAU的门槛寻求差异化的破局包括像字节腾讯阿里这些等大厂也都将核心模型能力深度嵌入到节目制作包括社交互动和真实的消费场景未来可能会渗透到越来越多的场景像字节独家赞助的春晚期间也是 展现了顶级的多模态能力田区元宝依托它的微型生态构建起来的AI衍生的社交空间像阿里千万通过31个免单在真实商业场景中也是验证了智能体的实行力大档的AI营销投入让AI也是成功下沉到三四线城市以及中老年群体所以国内的这些AI应用也有望成为 国民级的生活方式另外我们看到假期长期游戏的还是呈现出了非常强劲的这么一个态势整体供给偏弱的这样一个背景之下头部场上凭借这种各种福利包括IP联动和大版本的更新的组合拳的拉新的触活 ...

2月25日，受隔夜美股科技股反弹提振，港股三大指数追随亚太市场情绪集体高开，随后进入震荡整理 阶段。截至午间收盘，恒生指数涨0.75%报26790.23点，恒生科技指数涨0.34%报5288.47点，国企指数 涨0.9%报9089.04点，红筹指数涨1.18%报4498.18点；市场多空博弈加剧，个股呈现显著分化态势：业 绩预增股受到资金追捧，而部分消费及地产股则面临调整压力。 盘面上，市场多空博弈加剧，个股呈现显著分化态势，业绩预增股受到资金追捧；科技股中，阿里巴巴 涨0.88%，腾讯控股涨1.25%，京东集团涨0.94%，小米集团跌0.11%，网易跌0.67%，美团涨2.33%，快 手涨0.38%，哔哩哔哩跌0.95%。内房股、建材水泥股、钢铁股等建筑类股均大幅上涨，重庆钢铁盘中 一度飙涨27%，碧桂园涨超6%；有色金属板块走强，力勤资源涨超8%，灵宝黄金再创历史新高；航运 股多数走强，中远海发涨超7%；昨日领衔板块上涨的半导体存储概念股走低。 个股及板块新闻 业绩披露潮现"冰火两重天" 猫眼娱乐(01896.HK)早盘走高，公司预计2025财年收入达46亿至47亿元，同比增长12.7%至15.1%；净 ...