Summary of China Property Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property Sector - **Key Focus**: Market expectations, policy changes, sales performance, and investment opportunities Core Insights 1. **Investor Positioning**: Many investors in Hong Kong, Singapore, and overseas have been underweight in the China property sector, while sectors like metals, mining, tech, and healthcare are well-owned. There is a shift towards increasing exposure in the property sector due to fear of missing out on potential recovery [1][2] 2. **Sales and Investment Trends**: Secondary sales improved in January, with a month-on-month increase compared to December. However, new home sales remain weak, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 30% expected to persist into Q1 2026 due to last year's high base [2][4] 3. **Policy Easing Expectations**: Positive market sentiment in January was driven by expectations of policy easing, including VAT cuts and adjustments to down payment requirements for commercial properties. The easing of the "three red lines" policy indicates that deleveraging targets may have been met [2][15] 4. **Opportunistic Window**: There is a belief that an opportunistic window may exist from January to March before the National People's Congress meeting and FY25 earnings reports, suggesting potential for strategic investments during this period [2] 5. **Stock Picks**: Recommended stocks include China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI), Jinmao, and Greentown, which are expected to benefit from land acquisition growth and ample saleable resources in 2026. CR Land is noted for its strong fundamentals but is already well-owned [3] 6. **Secondary Market Activity**: Secondary transaction volumes improved to approximately 26,038 units in the week ending January 25, 2026, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase. This is seen as a positive sign for market confidence [3][9] 7. **New Home Sales Performance**: New home sales increased by 15% week-on-week but are still down approximately 30% year-on-year. The primary sales trend remains uncertain and is not yet sustainable [4][11] 8. **Land Acquisition Trends**: Significant increases in land acquisition costs were noted for several companies, with Jinmao seeing a 78% increase year-on-year. In contrast, Vanke and Longfor reported substantial declines in land acquisition values [17] Additional Important Points - **Policy Support**: Recent supportive policies include lowering the minimum down payment for commercial property mortgages and extending tax refund policies for home buyers [15][16] - **Market Sentiment**: The market's positive response to policy changes indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards the property sector, despite ongoing challenges in new home sales [2][4] - **Valuation Insights**: The sector's valuations are being closely monitored, with recommendations varying from buy to neutral based on individual company fundamentals [20] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the China property sector, highlighting both opportunities and ongoing challenges.

综合来看，A股地产板块2025年归母净亏损预计在1984.2亿元—1455.0亿元之间，2024年为归母净亏损 1614.0亿元。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经 营表现。 记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已 出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 根据中信证券房地产开发和运营板块统计（剔除B股），A股地产板块共有78家企业发布业绩预告或快 报，其中58家公司公告预亏（首亏或续亏），6家公司公告业绩预增，其余18家公司没有发布业绩预 告。 此外，多层次REITs市场建设对房地产板块也形成整体利好。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经 营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产 板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信用债（主体负债）为主转向 以项目融资（REITs和物业经营贷等）为主之际，企业资产和负债错配的矛盾就正在得到解决。 投资策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector in A-shares and Hong Kong has shown strong performance, with A-share real estate index rising over 5% during the week of January 26 to January 30, 2025. Despite profit pressures for 2025, there are positive signals indicating a potential stabilization in the market by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Forecast - A total of 78 A-share real estate companies released performance forecasts, with 58 companies expecting losses, 6 companies projecting profit increases, and 18 companies not providing forecasts. The estimated net loss for the A-share real estate sector in 2025 is projected to be between 198.42 billion and 145.5 billion yuan, compared to a net loss of 161.4 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - According to CITIC Securities, the decline in performance reflects the market adjustments over the past few years, but there are emerging positive signals, such as a slight decrease in second-hand housing listings in major cities and increased buyer confidence due to supportive media coverage [2][3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Recovery Signals - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities suggests that the most challenging period for real estate companies may be coming to an end, as the fundamentals of the real estate market are nearing a bottom after over four years of adjustment. New construction starts have decreased by 75% since the peak in 2021, and second-hand housing prices have dropped by 40% since the same peak [2]. - The construction of a multi-level REITs market is seen as a positive factor for the real estate sector, potentially alleviating some of the financial pressures faced by companies [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - CITIC Securities recommends focusing on "operating assets" and emphasizes the advantages of developers with core resources and operational capabilities. The report indicates that the industry is likely to see a recovery in profitability for quality real estate companies sooner and with greater elasticity due to improved market conditions and historical low valuations [5]. - The central government's recent emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and the positive media coverage are expected to contribute to a more favorable policy environment, further supporting the recovery of the sector [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 不动产的价值和价格 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 核心城市住房不存在系统性过剩，也不仅仅是商品，我们可以从资产视角去探讨定价问题，关 键矛盾在于价值和价格的关系。在低租售比背景下，租金涨幅对持有回报率有决定性作用，如 果中短期内没有明显的租金上涨，那么持有住房资产的回报率仍不及可比利率。房价的短期变 化跟合理价值关系不大，主要取决于边际，尤其是产业政策的扰动，社会预期是分层的，对合 理价值的判断也有差异；在房价经历较长时间和较大幅度的调整之后，自然需求和政策干预， 都有可能带来房价的缓和甚至一定修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 不动产的价值和价格 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标对市场 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 杨坪 据中信证券统计，2026年1月29日- 30日，8单总计估值321亿元商业不动产REITs发行挂网，预计涉及募集规模总计315亿元，涉及资本化率在 4.3%-7.2%区间内，涉及运营净收益（NOI）总计16.5亿元（2025年数据，部分项目为年化值）。 连日来，2025年业绩预告进入集中披露期。万科A、招商蛇口等多家地产公司也预告了2025年的整体经营表现。 中信证券认为，在商业不动产REITs推出之后，REITs市场发行审批效率明显提升，优质资产证券化速度明显加快。房地产企业资产负债表得 到夯实，债务负担有所减轻，广大投资者也得以配置优质低波权益资产，分享中国经济增长红利。 本报记者注意到，多家券商机构在点评房地产业绩预告时指出，尽管2025年房企利润表现仍承压，但市场已出现积极信号，预计2026年房地产 市场有望逐步止跌回稳。 总结来看，中信证券指出，我国居民部门的现金流量表保持良好，净流入健康向上，这也是未来企业经营性现金流净流入可能持续修复的底 气。政策力推住宅价格止跌，加上商业地产资产增值，相信房地产板块的主体信用风险已经开始退潮。当行业的主要融资性现金流入，从以信 用债 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The majority of A-share listed real estate companies are expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Loss Predictions - Out of 52 listed real estate companies, 40 are expected to report losses for 2025, which means over 80% of these companies are projected to be in the red [1]. - Five companies are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Vanke leading at a projected loss of 820 billion yuan, followed by China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale [2][3]. - Vanke's cumulative losses for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be nearly 1,315 billion yuan, surpassing the total profits from 2019 to 2023 [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The losses are attributed to declining property prices and significant impairment provisions that companies have had to make over the past two years [9][10]. - Many companies had previously anticipated a market recovery and began to recognize inventory impairments, but the continued market downturn has forced them to increase these provisions [10]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Profits - Twelve companies are expected to report profits, with Jinke Real Estate projected to achieve a net profit of 300 billion to 350 billion yuan, primarily due to successful restructuring [12][13]. - Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are also expected to report profits, albeit with significant declines compared to 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The list of loss-making companies includes a mix of private, state-owned, and central enterprises, indicating that the nature of the company does not correlate with the likelihood of losses [7]. - State-owned platform companies, which previously supported land acquisitions, are now facing increased pressure due to the ongoing market decline [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming annual report season in March and April 2025 will provide more detailed insights into the operational conditions of these companies [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the commercial real estate REITs sector [6]. Core Insights - The launch of commercial real estate REITs in China is expected to significantly improve corporate cash flow and performance, optimizing financial statements and guiding the industry towards a new model of development [2][6]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs has entered the application stage, accelerating the development process [6]. - The report highlights several recommended companies across different categories, including development, residential-commercial, property management, and cultural tourism [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Highlights - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs covers diverse asset types such as hotels, offices, and commercial complexes, enhancing the range of underlying assets [2]. - Specific REITs mentioned include: 1. Huazhong Jinjiang Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 1.703 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 3.44% for 2025 [6]. 2. Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 4.002 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.50% for 2026 [6]. 3. CICC Vipshop Closed-end Commercial Real Estate Securities Investment Fund, with a projected fundraising scale of 7.47 billion yuan and an annualized cash distribution rate forecast of 4.57% for 2026 [6]. Company Profitability Forecast - The report provides profitability forecasts for key companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating [8]. - Notable companies include: - Vanke A, with a projected EPS of -4.17 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 54.22 [8]. - China Overseas Development, with a projected EPS of 1.43 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 8.93 [8]. - Longfor Group, with a projected EPS of 1.58 yuan for 2024 and a market cap of 5.93 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in core cities has shown signs of recovery, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving a sales turnover of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][16][17]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The top 100 real estate companies achieved a sales turnover of 165.45 billion yuan in January 2026, which is a significant performance indicator for the industry [16][17]. - Among the top 100 companies, 32 reported year-on-year growth in sales, with 10 companies experiencing growth rates exceeding 100% [26][27]. - Notably, companies like Junyi Holdings and Bontai Group saw substantial increases in sales, attributed to strategic investments made since 2021 [28][29]. Group 2: Market Trends - The new housing market is experiencing a slowdown, while the second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery, with a 16% month-on-month increase in transaction volume for second-hand homes in key cities [31][32]. - The central government has introduced various supportive policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including financial support measures and tax incentives, which are expected to stimulate demand, particularly in the second-hand housing sector [33]. Group 3: Company Rankings - In January 2026, the top companies by sales included Poly Development (15.6 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (14.48 billion yuan), and China Resources Land (11.65 billion yuan) [8]. - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list, with CITIC City Development making a notable entry into the top 30 [23][24]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The government has focused on urban renewal and financing optimization, which are expected to enhance the market's stability and encourage investment in real estate [33]. - The central bank's monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in the re-lending rate and changes to down payment requirements for commercial properties, are designed to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [33].